Prediction Competition - September 2022

[yellowperil]

Well that was a Wild Week wasn't it? Congrats to Right Leaning for making less of a mess of it than most of us. Picking the right Indy is always going to be a tricky business if you aren't there on the spot.

[rockefeller]

Mansfield, Oak Tree

Mansfield IND: 40%
CON: 29%
LAB: 26%
OTH: 5%

[The Bishop]

Each to their own, but I don't really see the point of doing one prediction out of several in a week.

[kevinf]

Bolton
Lab 42, Con 32, Green 10, Ref 10, LD 6
Mansfield
Mans Ind 55, Lab 32, Con 10, Freedom 2, Tusc 1
Mid Sussex
LD 39, Con 37, Green 8, Ind 7, Lab 6, Omrlp 3

[Richard Cromwell]

Oak Tree, Mansfield

Mansfield Independents	56%
LAB	35%
CON	6%
Freedom Alliance	2%
TUSC	1%

Rumworth, Bolton

LAB	79%
CON	18%
GRN	2%
LDEM	1%
Reform	0%

Bolney, Mid Sussex

CON	40%
LDEM	24%
GRN	19%
LAB	9%
IND	7%
Monster Raving Loony	1%

[greenhert]

Bolton MBC, Rumworth: Labour 61, Conservative 24.5, Green 8, Reform UK & Bolton for Change 3.5, Liberal Democrats 3.
Mansfield BC, Oak Tree: Mansfield Independents 55, Labour 32, Conservative 9, TUSC 3, Freedom Alliance 1.
Mid Sussex DC, Bolney: Conservative 48, Liberal Democrats 25, Independent (Mockford) 10, Green 9, Labour 7, OMRLP 1.

[batman]

BOLTON, Rumworth : Lab 58 C 28 Green 7 RefUK/B4C 4 LD 3

MANSFIELD, Oak Tree : Mansfield Ind 46 Lab 37 C 11 TUSC 4 Freedom All 2

MID-SUSSEX, Bolney : Con 39 LD 28 Green 12 Ind 11 Lab 8 OMRLP 2

[Tony Otim]

Bolton: Lab 56.7; Con 33.7; Grn 5.4; LD 2.6; RefUK 1.6
Mansfield: Mansfield Ind 42.1; Lab 34.7; Con 11.6; TUSC 7.7; Freedom All 3.9
Mid Sussex: LD 40.8; Con 35.3; Grn 10.5; Lab 7.9; Mockford 4.1; OMRLP 1.4

[Robert Waller]

Bolton: Lab 55; Con 34; Grn 6; LD 3; RefUK 2

Mansfield: Mansfield Ind 41; Lab 42; Con 13; TUSC 1.5; Freedom All 2.5

Mid Sussex: LD 39; Con 37; Grn 12; Lab 6; Mockford 4; OMRLP 2

[andrewp]

Bolton. Rumworth. Lab 55, Con 33, LD 4, Green 4, Ref Uk 4
Mansfield. Oak Tree. Ind 50, Lab 35, Con 10, Free All 3, TUSc 2
Mid Sussex, Bolney, LD 41, Con 40, Green 7, Lab 6, Ind 4, OMRLP 2

[yellowperil]

Bolton, Rumworth: Con 32, Lab 59, LD 2.5, GP 4, Ref 2.5.
Mansfield, Oak Tree: Con 10, Lab 33, M.Ind 53, FA 2, TUSC 2.
Mid Sussex, Bolney: Con 38, Lab 6, LD 40, GP 7, Ind 6, OMRLP 3




( I expect to be in Bolney later this week. Wonder if I'll find them  or ?)

[rightleaning]

Bolton. Rumworth. Lab 51, Con 36, LD 7, Green 4, Ref Uk 2
Mansfield. Oak Tree. Mansfield Ind 48, Lab 37, Con 11, Free All 2, TUSC 2
Mid Sussex, Bolney, Con 43, LD 41, Green 7, Lab 6, Ind 2, OMRLP 1

[batman]

Sept 14, 2022 22:24:56 GMT yellowperil said:

Bolton, Rumworth: Con 32, Lab 59, LD 2.5, GP 4, Ref 2.5.
Mansfield, Oak Tree: Con 10, Lab 33, M.Ind 53, FA 2, TUSC 2.
Mid Sussex, Bolney: Con 38, Lab 6, LD 40, GP 7, Ind 6, OMRLP 3




( I expect to be in Bolney later this week. Wonder if I'll find them  or ?)

I've only been to Bolney once. We experienced the longest delay in getting our pub food I've ever experienced in my life. Not in a desperate hurry to return.

[yellowperil]

Sept 15, 2022 7:20:38 GMT batman said:

Sept 14, 2022 22:24:56 GMT yellowperil said:

Bolton, Rumworth: Con 32, Lab 59, LD 2.5, GP 4, Ref 2.5.
Mansfield, Oak Tree: Con 10, Lab 33, M.Ind 53, FA 2, TUSC 2.
Mid Sussex, Bolney: Con 38, Lab 6, LD 40, GP 7, Ind 6, OMRLP 3




( I expect to be in Bolney later this week. Wonder if I'll find them  or ?)

I've only been to Bolney once. We experienced the longest delay in getting our pub food I've ever experienced in my life. Not in a desperate hurry to return.

They weren't in a deperate hurry, either, obvs. I wonder whether we'll have a long wait for the result, as well?

 My visit to Bolney is unlikely to take me anywhere near the pub, maybe just as well?

[robbienicoll]

10 full entries and 1 partial this week, losing johnloony, but all on time and correct.

Rumsworth, Bolton: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (kevinf) to 61% (Richard Cromwell).

Oak Tree, Mansfield: 10 Mansfield Independent hold, with majorities ranging from 5% (peterl) to 23% (greenhert and kevinf). Robert Waller Labour gain with 1% majority.

Bolney, Mid Sussex: Equal split, with batman, greenhert, peterl, Richard Cromwell and Right Leaning Conservative hold, and andrewp, kevinf, Robert Waller, Tony Otim and yellowperil Lib Dem gain.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MrDtbJkn3EWNO_BkGX8B0vhDfJsE2b6WHK1W0vQIFRM/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[johnloony]

I haven’t even been thinking about the by-elections this week, let alone predicting them. Yesterday I made a spontaneous ad-hoc decision to go to central London in the middle of the night (at a time when I would normally go to bed) and I was in the queue from 2:50am to 9:14am. When I got home afterwards I was asleep until about 10pm. So I couldn’t even have a made a prediction even if I had been in the mood to do so.

I have rather liked the political atmosphere of the last week. It’s almost as if we are in a benign absolute monarchy, in which normal News and politics have been suspended and in which normal murders, crimes, disasters, political controversies and hardship don’t get reported and therefore don’t happen.

[batman]

I think that I will wait for Andrew's Previews before predicting in future weeks. He gave some interesting pointers which made the Conservative gain in Bolton seem less of a shock than otherwise it would have been. Quite apart from other interesting & illuminating stuff.

[Robert Waller]

Sept 16, 2022 8:27:56 GMT batman said:

I think that I will wait for Andrew's Previews before predicting in future weeks. He gave some interesting pointers which made the Conservative gain in Bolton seem less of a shock than otherwise it would have been. Quite apart from other interesting & illuminating stuff.

Unfortunately perhaps (for all of us!), I think you'll find that Andrew's Previews are hardly ever available until after the deadline for predicting has closed.

Anyway, congratulations to rightleaning who remains well ahead of an otherwise bunched field! And to robbienicoll for getting the results collated so quickly this week.

[rightleaning]

Blimey, more luck than judgement :-)

[peterl]

Thursday September 22nd 2022

COVENTRY MBC; Sherbourne: Labour 36, Conservative 32, Green 15, Lib Dem 9, Coventry Citizens 7, TUSC 1
GWYNEDD UA; Llanuwchllyn: Plaid Cymru 67, Lib Dem 33
STOKE-ON-TRENT UA; Bentilee & Ubberley: Labour 48, City Independents 37, Conservative 15
WEALDEN DC; Maresfield: Green 54, Conservative 46