CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 21, 2024 8:10:45 GMT
Matt Goodwin is very defensively posting on social media that his poll isn't out of sync, whilst revealing how out of sync it is.
If you spend all your time defending your poll, then you are losing the argument.
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 28, 2024 7:42:03 GMT
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Post by batman on Jun 28, 2024 8:04:30 GMT
The Labour vote is pretty much in line with the other polls except YouGov. The situation vis a vis Conservative & Reform is not. Most polls have those 2 parties very close together, with the Tories tending to be still very slightly ahead of Reform (some including More in Common think the Tories are still quite a way ahead of Reform). I instinctively don't think the Tories get as little as 15% in a general election. If they do the Lord help them.
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,261 
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Post by polupolu on Jun 28, 2024 8:44:00 GMT
On those numbers Reform start to win more than a handful of seats:
FT:
Lab 520
Con 4 (Sunak's majority 0.6%)
LD 59
Ref 27
Grn 0
Electoral Calculus UNS:
Lab 489
Con 6
Ref 63 (Opposition)
LD 50
Grn 1
Electoral Calculus MRP:
Lab 494
Con 21 (MRP working in their favour compared to UNS)
LD 73
Ref 27
Grn 4 (inc. Herefordshire N, Waveny Valley, both from 4th place notional at the moment)
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Post by cogload on Jun 28, 2024 10:55:04 GMT
The Rasmussen of UK polling. |
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,261
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Post by polupolu on Jun 28, 2024 11:48:40 GMT
Clearly an outlier; but it does underline the message that any further swing from Tories to Reform has pretty big implications for the opposition benches in the next parliament.
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 28, 2024 12:14:59 GMT
Matt Goodwin is very defensively posting on social media that his poll isn't out of sync, whilst revealing how out of sync it is. If you spend all your time defending your poll, then you are losing the argument. Goodwin spent a lot of time masquerading as an independent commentator before it became apparent that he was actually a strong supporter of and cheerleader for, the right wing populists. As a result many of us no longer trust a thing he says, and certainly not any of his 'polls'. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 28, 2024 12:37:53 GMT
That they have moved back to a more realistic Labour figure is interesting though. The 35% last time always looked like an attempt at agenda setting.
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Raddy
Non-Aligned
Posts: 69
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Post by Raddy on Jun 28, 2024 14:08:25 GMT
Matt Goodwin is clearly on the populist side politically, is his polling coloured by his views, we will find out in due course.
On a more broader point, how many polling organisations are truly impartial, especially when nearly all their paid for polls are often nuanced in the direction of he who pays the piper.
It is human nature that individuals migrate towards those with similar views and interests, a situation that politically today is now on steroids as many on one side of a political position break life long personal relationships over some stupid political belief.
Being a true follower of a new evangelical religion such Net Zero or Gender must destroy any attempt at logical analysis based on demographics etc
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Post by michaelarden on Jun 28, 2024 15:12:06 GMT
The Rasmussen of UK polling. Are they BPC members and do we know the order of questions? |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 28, 2024 15:21:25 GMT
The Rasmussen of UK polling. Are they BPC members and do we know the order of questions? yes they are bpc members |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 29, 2024 6:12:38 GMT
The Labour vote is pretty much in line with the other polls except YouGov. The situation vis a vis Conservative & Reform is not. Most polls have those 2 parties very close together, with the Tories tending to be still very slightly ahead of Reform (some including More in Common think the Tories are still quite a way ahead of Reform). I instinctively don't think the Tories get as little as 15% in a general election. If they do the Lord help them. The source is dodgy, though, those numbers could have been massaged to keep up a certain narrative. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jun 29, 2024 6:14:00 GMT
The Labour vote is pretty much in line with the other polls except YouGov. The situation vis a vis Conservative & Reform is not. Most polls have those 2 parties very close together, with the Tories tending to be still very slightly ahead of Reform (some including More in Common think the Tories are still quite a way ahead of Reform). I instinctively don't think the Tories get as little as 15% in a general election. If they do the Lord help them. The source is dodgy, though, those numbers could have been massaged to keep up a certain narrative. Please, please don't go down the "polls are fixed" rabbit hole. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 29, 2024 6:21:18 GMT
The source is dodgy, though, those numbers could have been massaged to keep up a certain narrative. Please, please don't go down the "polls are fixed" rabbit hole. I'm not. I'm saying that a Goodwin poll is to be treated with suspicion because of his background and biases. After the earlier poll was such a mad outlier for Reform it would make sense for him to tweak the next one to show them in line for Labour. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 29, 2024 6:59:12 GMT
Please, please don't go down the "polls are fixed" rabbit hole. I'm not. I'm saying that a Goodwin poll is to be treated with suspicion because of his background and biases. After the earlier poll was such a mad outlier for Reform it would make sense for him to tweak the next one to show them in line for Labour. Or alternatively, the last one was an outlier and now it's reverting to the mean |
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Post by bigfatron on Jun 29, 2024 7:10:27 GMT
I keep track of averages per pollster for the Lib Dems - People Polling has always had the largest negative house effect for the Lib Dems, running at 1.4% below the average of all pollsters.
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cathyc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,179
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Post by cathyc on Jun 29, 2024 8:27:18 GMT
I'm not. I'm saying that a Goodwin poll is to be treated with suspicion because of his background and biases. After the earlier poll was such a mad outlier for Reform it would make sense for him to tweak the next one to show them in line for Labour. Or alternatively, the last one was an outlier and now it's reverting to the mean But Goodwin himself was keen to point out in articles and broadcasts that it not an outlier, it was just 'ahead of the curve' and that later polls would show the same trend. he doesn't appear to have written any articles to explain why they haven't. He's a propagandist rather than a pollster. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 3, 2024 13:08:02 GMT
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Raddy
Non-Aligned
Posts: 69
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Post by Raddy on Jul 3, 2024 13:11:08 GMT
Let me correct that for you. ' I hope is methodology is wanting ' |
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Post by MeirionGwril on Jul 3, 2024 13:14:48 GMT
Let me correct that for you. ' I hope is methodology is wanting ' Let me correct that for you. ' I hope his methodology is wanting' |
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