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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 13, 2024 14:28:52 GMT
I've never been to the GBNews website before - it's not even FoxNews, it's more than OAN or WDN, isn't it? What a pile of .... |
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Post by timmullen on Jun 13, 2024 14:30:07 GMT
I've never been to the GBNews website before - it's not even FoxNews, it's more than OAN or WDN, isn't it? What a pile of .... Looks like the same layout as the Mail and its subsidiaries. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 13, 2024 14:37:53 GMT
I've never been to the GBNews website before - it's not even FoxNews, it's more than OAN or WDN, isn't it? What a pile of .... Looks like the same layout as the Mail and its subsidiaries. Don't go to the Mail site either - and now I definitely won't, thanks for the heads-up! |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 19, 2024 18:19:56 GMT
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Post by observer on Jun 19, 2024 18:29:59 GMT
If correct, disastrous for the 'mainstream' parties |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jun 19, 2024 18:36:37 GMT
If correct, disastrous for the 'mainstream' parties “IF” is a very big word in this context. I would absolutely love this to be true but I think Prof Goodwin’s calculator has had even more to drink tonight than I have! |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Post by cogload on Jun 19, 2024 18:40:01 GMT
Joke outfit. Joke polling.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,452 
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Post by iain on Jun 19, 2024 18:51:06 GMT
Are these guys just making up their numbers now?
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Post by batman on Jun 19, 2024 19:23:55 GMT
This may not be a rogue poll as such, but it is clearly a huge outlier. It has Reform at almost twice the vote share shown in some polls (which admittedly may be understating them). Unless it is borne out by other polls it has to be disregarded as authoritative.
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Jun 19, 2024 19:26:02 GMT
This may not be a rogue poll as such, but it is clearly a huge outlier. It has Reform at almost twice the vote share shown in some polls (which admittedly may be understating them). Unless it is borne out by other polls it has to be disregarded as authoritative. Indeed it does, but one which Farage will leap on gleefully no doubt as evidence Reform are now the main opposition to Labour across the country and if this continues will be overtaking them by two weeks on Thursday! |
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 19, 2024 19:26:03 GMT
Based on a sample of 1200??? Whilst I could see a scenario (just) where Reform finish 2nd in terms of vote share, they wont get within 11% of Labour!
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cathyc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,183
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Post by cathyc on Jun 19, 2024 19:30:49 GMT
If correct, disastrous for the 'mainstream' parties A Matt Goodwin "poll" for GBNews. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 19, 2024 19:33:35 GMT
If correct, disastrous for the 'mainstream' parties A Matt Goodwin "poll" for GBNews. if they are members of BPC, produce tables you can critique, etc. then it doesn't matter who owns the company or commissioned the poll |
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Post by batman on Jun 19, 2024 19:37:03 GMT
It's reasonable to think that Reform may have had a slight boost from their manifesto - sorry, contract - launch on Monday. However, there has been other polling reported which shows a much more modest boost and that seems much more credible. In general with the Euros being so widely covered I tend to think that all the parties will struggle to move the dial all that much in the fortnight that remains.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 19, 2024 19:44:00 GMT
Based on a sample of 1200??? All in one day, apparently. Always such a good sign. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,452
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Post by iain on Jun 19, 2024 19:46:50 GMT
I'm not sure why posters are trying to justify this as remotely credible. I'm sure that it's total coincidence that Mr Goodwin's polling firm is the only one showing anything like these numbers, which just so happen to massively overstate the party he supports.
This is a transparent attempt to try and manipulate the media narrative.
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 19, 2024 19:50:42 GMT
Just for giggles, fed those figures into Elec Calc and Reform still only finish 3rd (51 seats) behind LDs (64) and Labour (err..443)!  |
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Post by batman on Jun 19, 2024 19:53:56 GMT
I'm not saying it's credible, I'm saying it isn't a rogue poll, or at least it isn't unless we find fairly conclusive evidence that it was conducted improperly or incompletely. What it is is a major outlier, which is to be disbelieved unless & until other polls make very similar findings, and they are not contradicted by lots of other polls which show the opposite. Personally, I would very much doubt that we will see this poll replicated by other non-People Polling polls any time soon. I agree that it is rather convenient and I do think that a very healthy dose of scepticism would be in order. But I'm not willing quite to go down the route of calling it actually deliberately deceitful or mendacious, unless I have strong evidence that that is true rather than just speculation or supposition.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 19, 2024 19:59:48 GMT
Doesn't smell right. and I'd certainly like to see them produce their tables, and indeed their questions! They could be sincere in this, I think this is such a huge outlier, a decent pollster would not publish it, and do some further surveying to see if it holds up.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,046
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Post by nyx on Jun 19, 2024 20:04:10 GMT
Understandable to question credibility but at the same time I don't think pollsters should be afraid to publish outlier polls- that's how unexpected election results have been overlooked in the past.
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