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Post by woollyliberal on Jun 19, 2024 20:06:00 GMT
Starting with a bit of generosity, the fieldwork was all done yesterday. All the other recent polls have fieldwork dates going back 4 or 5 days. It is possible that there was a shift that only PP picked up.
Moving on to some hard facts. The have Lab 4 points lower than any other poll. Con 3 points lower than any other, and Reform 6 points higher than any other. That puts it firmly in the 'disbelieve until corroborated pile, balanced on the bin of outliers'.
Then there's the scepticism. Matt Goodwin Polling for GB News has the new right party doing well. Who'd have thought.
Edit to say a Norstat poll has dropped with field work from 17th to 19th which has Reform on 19 - also above the previous high of 18, but have sensible numbers elsewhere.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 19, 2024 20:12:05 GMT
GB News is a propaganda machine
People Polling is dubious at best
Matthew Goodwin is..... who he is.
We can easily dismiss this poll as the Reform puffpiece it is.
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Post by batman on Jun 19, 2024 20:13:06 GMT
Yes I noted the Norstat poll. That basically contradicts the findings of People Polling. There probably won't be another poll which is sampled ONLY on Monday. It will be interesting to see other polls which are sampled entirely after the launch of the manife - sorry contract. I think some might show a further small uptick for Reform, but not one of this magnitude. However badly the Tories are doing, I really don't think they will get only 15% in this general election. But hey, if we get 3 or 4 polls sampled this week, and they all back up People Polling, then (and only then) we can start to think about taking it seriously. (But, they almost certainly won't.)
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Post by observer on Jun 19, 2024 20:16:39 GMT
A poll can only be a snapshot, not a forecast.
I expect the Tories will pick up a bit by the time the votes are counted.
But I'm sure that Reform are gaining at the moment. Norsted also show gains.
It is now Labour and LDs that are vulnerable to Reform
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 19, 2024 20:16:47 GMT
Are people suggesting that they have lied not only about the headline figures but the underlying numbers from those sampled upwards? Surely that's illegal?
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 19, 2024 20:17:41 GMT
Are people suggesting that they have lied not only about the headline figures but the underlying numbers from those sampled upwards? Surely that's illegal? Are they members of the BPC? |
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Post by bigfatron on Jun 19, 2024 20:17:55 GMT
Starting with a bit of generosity, the fieldwork was all done yesterday. All the other recent polls have fieldwork dates going back 4 or 5 days. It is possible that there was a shift that only PP picked up. Moving on to some hard facts. The have Lab 4 points lower than any other poll. Con 3 points lower than any other, and Reform 6 points higher than any other. That puts it firmly in the 'disbelieve until corroborated pile, balanced on the bin of outliers'. Then there's the scepticism. Matt Goodwin Polling for GB News has the new right party doing well. Who'd have thought. Edit to say a Norstat poll has dropped with field work from 17th to 19th which has Reform on 19 - also above the previous high of 18, but have sensible numbers elsewhere. People Polling have always been ‘generous’ to Reform - their previous poll had a Reform number higher than any other pollster. It wouldn’t be a surprise if their prompting methodology was generally helpful to Reform. That said, this feels like an outlier; certainly a couple more similar results from other mainstream pollsters would be needed to give it some credibility. |
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Jun 19, 2024 20:21:24 GMT
I have no idea whether they have "lied", made the figures up, weighed in unusual ways or whatever. For us this is important, but the bigger issue is one of how it plays out. GB News will no doubt go big on it, picked up by certain newspapers and it becomes part of the reality even if it is false.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 19, 2024 20:23:56 GMT
I have no idea whether they have "lied", made the figures up, weighed in unusual ways or whatever. For us this is important, but the bigger issue is one of how it plays out. GB News will no doubt go big on it, picked up by certain newspapers and it becomes part of the reality even if it is false. Trumpian, Bannonite, however you want to label it. It's attempting to manipulate an election. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 19, 2024 20:28:10 GMT
Are people suggesting that they have lied not only about the headline figures but the underlying numbers from those sampled upwards? Surely that's illegal? Are they members of the BPC? They are, but the BPC does not actually regulate the industry in the usual sense of the word. Essentially all they ask (this is a slightly oversimplification but will do) is for data tables to be published and for the questions asked to be listed in the order in which they were asked. It's all very Scouts Honour type stuff, very typical of British self-regulation. |
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cathyc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,183
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Post by cathyc on Jun 19, 2024 20:31:55 GMT
A Matt Goodwin "poll" for GBNews. if they are members of BPC, produce tables you can critique, etc. then it doesn't matter who owns the company or commissioned the poll Show a published poll on any subject that hasn't basically supported the line of whoever commissioned it. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 19, 2024 20:33:27 GMT
if they are members of BPC, produce tables you can critique, etc. then it doesn't matter who owns the company or commissioned the poll Show a published poll on any subject that hasn't basically supported the line of whoever commissioned it. #BanAllCommissionedPolls |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 19, 2024 20:34:15 GMT
Are people suggesting that they have lied not only about the headline figures but the underlying numbers from those sampled upwards? Surely that's illegal? Are they members of the BPC? yes |
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carolus
Lib Dem
Posts: 5,779
Member is Online
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Post by carolus on Jun 19, 2024 20:50:21 GMT
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Post by observer on Jun 19, 2024 21:00:18 GMT
Will we see another 2016 Brexit/Trump-type result?
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,046
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Post by nyx on Jun 19, 2024 21:08:01 GMT
Moving on to some hard facts. The have Lab 4 points lower than any other poll. Con 3 points lower than any other, and Reform 6 points higher than any other. That puts it firmly in the 'disbelieve until corroborated pile, balanced on the bin of outliers'. Compared to the last YouGov poll, they have Labour 2 points lower, Tories 3 points lower, and Reform 5 points higher. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 19, 2024 21:10:18 GMT
Will we see another 2016 Brexit/Trump-type result? FPtP doesn't allow for that. Clacton is a given now, anything else seems fanciful. |
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Raddy
Non-Aligned
Posts: 69 
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Post by Raddy on Jun 19, 2024 21:50:17 GMT
Seems off the beam, but aren't most of the polls a bit of a dogs dinner.
If the 'gold standards' had a clue wouldn't their results be closer to each other.
Ignoring this one we have had Labour between 37 and 45, Conservatives from 18 to 27. Reform from 9 to 19, and the others equally all over the shop.
The only thing that seems consistent to me is the inconsistency.
Whoever is right, some are going to be very wrong and will look right plonkers.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,915
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 19, 2024 21:52:30 GMT
My computer says insecure download blocked - read into that what you may ;0 |
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Post by arnieg on Jun 19, 2024 21:55:06 GMT
I expect the Tories will pick up a bit by the time the votes are counted. But they need to pick up before votes are cast, which for postal votes is basically now. |
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