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Post by observer on Jun 19, 2024 22:04:23 GMT
I expect the Tories will pick up a bit by the time the votes are counted. But they need to pick up before votes are cast, which for postal votes is basically now. That looks unlikely. And I don't think they deserve it |
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Jun 19, 2024 22:05:33 GMT
"The data is acquired from a panel provider offering participants the chance to win money."
It has the following four additional questions to those about voting intent:
- To what extent, if at all, would support the following policies. ‘An immediate freeze on all immigration that is not essential for key areas like the National Health Service into Britain.
- To what extent, if at all, would you support the following policies. ‘Cut the amount of foreign aid the UK gives to other countries by 50%, which is around £6 billion, so that the UK can spend this money instead on its public services.
- To what extent, if at all, would you support the following policies. ‘Having a patriotic curriculum in primary and secondary schools, whereby if children are taught about British or European slavery they must also be taught about non-British and non-European countries that have also engaged in slavery to ensure balance.
- Some people are forecasting that the Labour Party might win a ‘super-majority’ at the forthcoming 2024 general election, winning a majority of nearly 300 seats or more. Which of the following comes closest to your view.
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Post by observer on Jun 19, 2024 22:09:43 GMT
"The data is acquired from a panel provider offering participants the chance to win money." It has the following four additional questions to those about voting intent: - To what extent, if at all, would support the following policies. ‘An immediate freeze on all immigration that is not essential for key areas like the National Health Service into Britain. - To what extent, if at all, would you support the following policies. ‘Cut the amount of foreign aid the UK gives to other countries by 50%, which is around £6 billion, so that the UK can spend this money instead on its public services. - To what extent, if at all, would you support the following policies. ‘Having a patriotic curriculum in primary and secondary schools, whereby if children are taught about British or European slavery they must also be taught about non-British and non-European countries that have also engaged in slavery to ensure balance. - Some people are forecasting that the Labour Party might win a ‘super-majority’ at the forthcoming 2024 general election, winning a majority of nearly 300 seats or more. Which of the following comes closest to your view. They seem fair questions |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 19, 2024 22:12:43 GMT
"The data is acquired from a panel provider offering participants the chance to win money." It has the following four additional questions to those about voting intent: - To what extent, if at all, would support the following policies. ‘An immediate freeze on all immigration that is not essential for key areas like the National Health Service into Britain. - To what extent, if at all, would you support the following policies. ‘Cut the amount of foreign aid the UK gives to other countries by 50%, which is around £6 billion, so that the UK can spend this money instead on its public services. - To what extent, if at all, would you support the following policies. ‘Having a patriotic curriculum in primary and secondary schools, whereby if children are taught about British or European slavery they must also be taught about non-British and non-European countries that have also engaged in slavery to ensure balance. - Some people are forecasting that the Labour Party might win a ‘super-majority’ at the forthcoming 2024 general election, winning a majority of nearly 300 seats or more. Which of the following comes closest to your view. So all badly worded, leading questions, and all taken from Reform policy documents. Propaganda for GBeebies. That's all it is. |
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Post by michaelarden on Jun 19, 2024 22:31:22 GMT
"The data is acquired from a panel provider offering participants the chance to win money." It has the following four additional questions to those about voting intent: - To what extent, if at all, would support the following policies. ‘An immediate freeze on all immigration that is not essential for key areas like the National Health Service into Britain. - To what extent, if at all, would you support the following policies. ‘Cut the amount of foreign aid the UK gives to other countries by 50%, which is around £6 billion, so that the UK can spend this money instead on its public services. - To what extent, if at all, would you support the following policies. ‘Having a patriotic curriculum in primary and secondary schools, whereby if children are taught about British or European slavery they must also be taught about non-British and non-European countries that have also engaged in slavery to ensure balance. - Some people are forecasting that the Labour Party might win a ‘super-majority’ at the forthcoming 2024 general election, winning a majority of nearly 300 seats or more. Which of the following comes closest to your view. If those questions are asked after the voting intention polling which needs to be in the first couple for efficacy, then it isn't necessarily a problem. If they were asked as intro questions then it's a push poll. I've seen the ones Clegg and the Lib Dems asked in the run up to 2015 and the reason why they were taken by surprise when they ended up with 8 MPs was they did exactly the same. |
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Post by observer on Jun 19, 2024 22:37:24 GMT
"The data is acquired from a panel provider offering participants the chance to win money." It has the following four additional questions to those about voting intent: - To what extent, if at all, would support the following policies. ‘An immediate freeze on all immigration that is not essential for key areas like the National Health Service into Britain. - To what extent, if at all, would you support the following policies. ‘Cut the amount of foreign aid the UK gives to other countries by 50%, which is around £6 billion, so that the UK can spend this money instead on its public services. - To what extent, if at all, would you support the following policies. ‘Having a patriotic curriculum in primary and secondary schools, whereby if children are taught about British or European slavery they must also be taught about non-British and non-European countries that have also engaged in slavery to ensure balance. - Some people are forecasting that the Labour Party might win a ‘super-majority’ at the forthcoming 2024 general election, winning a majority of nearly 300 seats or more. Which of the following comes closest to your view. So all badly worded, leading questions, and all taken from Reform policy documents. Propaganda for GBeebies. That's all it is. They're questions you don't like. Maybe you fear the answers, so you try to discredit them. But they are valid |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 19, 2024 22:47:26 GMT
I expect the Tories will pick up a bit by the time the votes are counted. But they need to pick up before votes are cast, which for postal votes is basically now. And of course postal votes are traditionally the Conservatives' strongest suit. |
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Jun 19, 2024 22:48:06 GMT
So all badly worded, leading questions, and all taken from Reform policy documents. Propaganda for GBeebies. That's all it is. They're questions you don't like. Maybe you fear the answers, so you try to discredit them. But they are valid They are the only questions apart from voting intent. That's the point you don't (or can't) seem to get. They are clearly promoting an agenda and not asking questions they know they'll get inconvenient answers to. Goodwin has rapidly gone from academic to pollster to pundit to activist to propagandist. |
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Post by observer on Jun 19, 2024 22:51:18 GMT
They're questions you don't like. Maybe you fear the answers, so you try to discredit them. But they are valid They are the only questions apart from voting intent. That's the point you don't (or can't) seem to get. They are clearly promoting an agenda and not asking questions they know they'll get inconvenient answers to. Goodwin has rapidly gone from academic to pollster to pundit to activist to propagandist. I get your point but disagree with it - are you suggesting that those valid questions may have influenced the voting intention answers? Do you know which questions came first? I suspect not. Yet you still try to discredit the poll. Why? |
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Post by michaelarden on Jun 19, 2024 22:53:01 GMT
But they need to pick up before votes are cast, which for postal votes is basically now. And of course postal votes are traditionally the Conservatives' strongest suit. But not any more. |
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Post by aargauer on Jun 19, 2024 23:19:44 GMT
They're questions you don't like. Maybe you fear the answers, so you try to discredit them. But they are valid They are the only questions doesn't matter Iapart from voting intent. That's the point you don't (or can't) seem to get. They are clearly promoting an agenda and not asking questions they know they'll get inconvenient answers to. Goodwin has rapidly gone from academic to pollster to pundit to activist to propagandist. It simply doesn't matter if it's after the VI question. It's certainly presented in that order. They wouldn't be BPC member if they conducted polling in this way. |
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Post by observer on Jun 19, 2024 23:30:43 GMT
I've looked again at the data and it is clear, unless People Polling are lying, that the voting intention question came before the other questions.
So it is a valid poll, albeit even valid polls sometimes get it wrong.
But there are no reasons to question Matt Goodwin's good faith .
The personal and defamatory attacks on Matt Goodwin should be withdrawn
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 19, 2024 23:51:28 GMT
And of course postal votes are traditionally the Conservatives' strongest suit. But not any more. What's your evidence for that? (Genuine question; what you say fits with certain canvas data I've seen, but I wonder what other evidence exists, as I was very surprised by that canvassing.) |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 20, 2024 0:04:07 GMT
Will we see another 2016 Brexit/Trump-type result? FPtP doesn't allow for that. Clacton is a given now, anything else seems fanciful. FPTP does quite easily allow for a Reform majority. It would, however, require Reform to get more votes nationally than Labour, a prospect which I expect would be rather challenging in such a short timeframe even if one assumes this poll to be accurate and even with Farage's oratory skills. |
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Post by aargauer on Jun 20, 2024 7:05:03 GMT
FPtP doesn't allow for that. Clacton is a given now, anything else seems fanciful. FPTP does quite easily allow for a Reform majority. It would, however, require Reform to get more votes nationally than Labour, a prospect which I expect would be rather challenging in such a short timeframe even if one assumes this poll to be accurate and even with Farage's oratory skills. Even on 35 / 24, there wouldn't be masses in it outside London and Scotland and reform would get a lot. |
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polupolu
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Post by polupolu on Jun 20, 2024 9:43:45 GMT
Just out of curiosity, I wondered about tipping points for Reform in our system. Putting this poll's numbers into the FT's projection model (and keeping all the other parties constant with the numbers from that poll), every percentage point swing from Tory to Reform, above a Reform vote of 18%, gives Reform about 20 seats from the Tories (and the Tories lose more in addition). At 18% Reform get two seats. At 21% they overtake the Tories (and Lib Dems become the official opposition). At 22% they take a couple of Labour seats. At 23% Reform overtake the Lib Dems as the official opposition. At 24% they reduce Labour's majority to a mere 325 ( 1) At 30% the Tories are wiped out completely (as they head below 10%) At 32% there is a hung Parliament At 34% they become the largest party At 38% Reform get a majority At the moment the FT's poll tracker has them on 15%. Using the FT's tracker's numbers the general flavour is the same though the precise percentages vary by a few points.
1Cynics may note that the combination of numbers in this poll are about the first possible combination where Reform are the clear official opposition
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Post by johnloony on Jun 20, 2024 10:44:15 GMT
"The data is acquired from a panel provider offering participants the chance to win money." It has the following four additional questions to those about voting intent: - To what extent, if at all, would support the following policies. ‘An immediate freeze on all immigration that is not essential for key areas like the National Health Service into Britain. - To what extent, if at all, would you support the following policies. ‘Cut the amount of foreign aid the UK gives to other countries by 50%, which is around £6 billion, so that the UK can spend this money instead on its public services. - To what extent, if at all, would you support the following policies. ‘Having a patriotic curriculum in primary and secondary schools, whereby if children are taught about British or European slavery they must also be taught about non-British and non-European countries that have also engaged in slavery to ensure balance. - Some people are forecasting that the Labour Party might win a ‘super-majority’ at the forthcoming 2024 general election, winning a majority of nearly 300 seats or more. Which of the following comes closest to your view. You’re not clear about what you’re quoting, or from where, but am I to understand that that is the text of the leading questions which were asked before getting the poll which had the figures of 35 24 15? If so, it makes it a rogue unreliable poll rather than merely an outlier. |
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Jun 20, 2024 10:50:32 GMT
"The data is acquired from a panel provider offering participants the chance to win money." It has the following four additional questions to those about voting intent: - To what extent, if at all, would support the following policies. ‘An immediate freeze on all immigration that is not essential for key areas like the National Health Service into Britain. - To what extent, if at all, would you support the following policies. ‘Cut the amount of foreign aid the UK gives to other countries by 50%, which is around £6 billion, so that the UK can spend this money instead on its public services. - To what extent, if at all, would you support the following policies. ‘Having a patriotic curriculum in primary and secondary schools, whereby if children are taught about British or European slavery they must also be taught about non-British and non-European countries that have also engaged in slavery to ensure balance. - Some people are forecasting that the Labour Party might win a ‘super-majority’ at the forthcoming 2024 general election, winning a majority of nearly 300 seats or more. Which of the following comes closest to your view. You’re not clear about what you’re quoting, or from where, but am I to understand that that is the text of the leading questions which were asked before getting the poll which had the figures of 35 24 15? If so, it makes it a rogue unreliable poll rather than merely an outlier. I'm quoting directly from the explanatory notes of the poll itself. Goodwin has been ramping and welcoming the arrival of such poll numbers for weeks. He calls it the 'looming inflection point'. GBNews then hire him to carry out a survey and lo and behold it shows exactly what they and he want it to. |
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Post by observer on Jun 20, 2024 10:59:10 GMT
You’re not clear about what you’re quoting, or from where, but am I to understand that that is the text of the leading questions which were asked before getting the poll which had the figures of 35 24 15? If so, it makes it a rogue unreliable poll rather than merely an outlier. I'm quoting directly from the explanatory notes of the poll itself. Goodwin has been ramping and welcoming the arrival of such poll numbers for weeks. He calls it the 'looming inflection point'. GBNews then hire him to carry out a survey and lo and behold it shows exactly what they and he want it to. I read the explanatory notes and all they show is that the voting intention question came first. It means that the subsequent questions could have had no bearing on the initial question. Are you saying that People Polling are lying in their explanatory notes? Do you have evidence? The fact that Prof Goodwin will be pleased by the results is relevant - how exactly? |
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Jun 20, 2024 11:27:41 GMT
I'm quoting directly from the explanatory notes of the poll itself. Goodwin has been ramping and welcoming the arrival of such poll numbers for weeks. He calls it the 'looming inflection point'. GBNews then hire him to carry out a survey and lo and behold it shows exactly what they and he want it to. I read the explanatory notes and all they show is that the voting intention question came first. It means that the subsequent questions could have had no bearing on the initial question. Are you saying that People Polling are lying in their explanatory notes? Do you have evidence? The fact that Prof Goodwin will be pleased by the results is relevant - how exactly? It was an online poll with incentives. It may not have affected the answers but who submitted them. If GBNews - where I understand Messrs Farage and Tice make the occasional appearance - and Goodwin himself would be pleased with the outcome then they should have commissioned somebody else to conduct it. If only to disavow people who might find such a hugely outlying poll as suspect. |
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