People Polling

[timmullen1]

A new kid on the block:

[jamie]

Matthew Goodwin’s new outfit.

[Chris from Brum]

That leaves 11% others, which seems high. How much for Brexit Reform?

[bjornhattan]

Aug 26, 2022 10:23:07 GMT Chris from Brum said:

That leaves 11% others, which seems high. How much for Brexit Reform?

They have them on 5%, Plaid on 1%, and "some other party" on 5%.

[Deleted]

I don't believe for a second that the Tories are on 26%

[The Bishop]

Though a few months of Truss, and 26% might seem generous.

(please note everybody, this is not an actual prediction)

[jamie]

Aug 26, 2022 10:38:54 GMT @europeanlefty said:

I don't believe for a second that the Tories are on 26%

Labour are on 40%, which if anything is on the lower end of current polling. Knock off the 5% who say ‘some other party’ and it looks a bit more realistic.  

[jamie]

Just looked at the cross-tabs and the 5% for ‘some other party’ looks odd. It’s only on 2% among Conservative and 1% among Labour 2019 voters, which means it must be very high for some of the smaller parties 2019 voters who are nonetheless listed as getting decent vote share right now (SNP 6%, Reform 5% etc). It looks like it might be a ‘Red Wall’ vote given its biggest support is in the North, but it’s got identical support among leavers and remainers. Does anybody else have an explanation?

[Wisconsin]

Aug 26, 2022 10:17:55 GMT timmullen1 said:

A new kid on the block:

The word cloud on page 6 is worth a read.

Glad to see Truss’s messaging on cheese and pork is cutting through to the public.

[bjornhattan]

Aug 26, 2022 11:04:40 GMT jamie said:

Just looked at the cross-tabs and the 5% for ‘some other party’ looks odd. It’s only on 2% among Conservative and 1% among Labour 2019 voters, which means it must be very high for some of the smaller parties 2019 voters who are nonetheless listed as getting decent vote share right now (SNP 6%, Reform 5% etc). It looks like it might be a ‘Red Wall’ vote given its biggest support is in the North, but it’s got identical support among leavers and remainers. Does anybody else have an explanation?

I'm not sure it is coming from smaller parties, simply because they don't have enough voters to influence the poll that much. All of them put together got about 13% of the vote in 2019 - this is similar to the Lib Dem vote share so the sample should about 100 "other" voters (which would be similar to the number of Lib Dems in the sample). But there are about 400 people in their sample who didn't vote in 2019 - if a lot of them said they'd vote for other parties this might cause the slightly odd figures we're seeing.

Worth noting that in addition to being disproportionately northern, these hypothetical supporters of some other party seem to be slightly older than the population as a whole, and more working class too. Though as with all crosstabs this should be taken with a bucket of salt.

[J.G.Harston]

Aug 26, 2022 11:07:16 GMT Wisconsin said:

Aug 26, 2022 10:17:55 GMT timmullen1 said:

A new kid on the block:

The word cloud on page 6 is worth a read.

Glad to see Truss’s messaging on cheese and pork is cutting through to the public.

Where's the beef?

[jamie]

Aug 26, 2022 11:27:17 GMT bjornhattan said:

I'm not sure it is coming from smaller parties, simply because they don't have enough voters to influence the poll that much. All of them put together got about 13% of the vote in 2019 - this is similar to the Lib Dem vote share so the sample should about 100 "other" voters (which would be similar to the number of Lib Dems in the sample). But there are about 400 people in their sample who didn't vote in 2019 - if a lot of them said they'd vote for other parties this might cause the slightly odd figures we're seeing.

Worth noting that in addition to being disproportionately northern, these hypothetical supporters of some other party seem to be slightly older than the population as a whole, and more working class too. Though as with all crosstabs this should be taken with a bucket of salt.

That’s a very plausible explanation and it’s always good to see a poll with a healthy share of admitted non-voters, but I’m not sure how accurate/useful a poll will be if it’s finding a non-insignificant share of the electorate saying they will start voting for unnamed and likely non-existent minor parties. 

[jamie]

Aug 26, 2022 11:07:16 GMT Wisconsin said:

The word cloud on page 6 is worth a read.

Interestingly the Thatcher cosplaying seems to have registered with the public, though I’m not sure that’s a good thing. 

[Wisconsin]

Aug 26, 2022 13:19:13 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Aug 26, 2022 11:07:16 GMT Wisconsin said:

The word cloud on page 6 is worth a read.

Glad to see Truss’s messaging on cheese and pork is cutting through to the public.

Where's the beef?

Sadly missing.

I could post the whole list - but does this forum have a policy on the c word (c**t, not c**********e)?

[bjornhattan]

Aug 26, 2022 13:31:12 GMT Wisconsin said:

Aug 26, 2022 13:19:13 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Where's the beef?

Sadly missing.

I could post the whole list - but does this forum have a policy on the c word (c**t, not c**********e)?

I might object to you calling me one, but a direct quote from a poll is absolutely fine.

[Wisconsin]

In frequency order:

untrustworthy

useless

idiot

liar
thatcher

incompetent

clueless

touch
trust

politician
tory

boris
thick
unknown

cunt
idea
unsure

people
strong
woman

Conservative

female
job
stupid

dangerous
honest
trustworthy
twat

maggie

cheese
false
hard
inept
pork
tax
weak

bad
bitch
competent
confidence
dishonest
dodgy
trusted

class
depth
dizzy
evil
horrible
real
reality
rich
rishi
rubbish
scum
strange
thinking
typical
world

arrogant
awful
blank
boring
capable
choice
clue
comment
corrupt
cuts
delusional
dick
entitled
fake
heard
johnson
living
margaret
markets
meh
minded
minister
nasty
nice
opportunist
prime
reliable
ridiculous
sly
truss
wannabe
worse
worthy

airhead
ambitious
applicable
bland
bossy
bully
bunch
care
changeable
cold
corruption
cost
country
cow
decisive
deluded
democrat
dense
detached
determined
distrust
ditsy
dreamer
dunno
economically
fair
families
fit
flakey
flip
forward
funny
head
helping
hope
hopeful
idiotic
incapable
income
incompetence
inconsistent
inspiring
irresponsible
lacking
liberal
lies
lightweight
liz
lower
misguided
muppet
nonsense
nowt
numpty
odd
ordinary
person
pig
pillock
poor
power
public
puppet
quantity
realist
scumbag
selfish
she’s
smarmy
sunak
supporter
tart
terrifying
time
tories
totally
trade
trouble
truss
trusting
uncaring
unreliable
vacuous
waste
wef
wing
wrong
yikes

[clyde1998]

Aug 26, 2022 11:27:17 GMT bjornhattan said:

Aug 26, 2022 11:04:40 GMT jamie said:

Just looked at the cross-tabs and the 5% for ‘some other party’ looks odd. It’s only on 2% among Conservative and 1% among Labour 2019 voters, which means it must be very high for some of the smaller parties 2019 voters who are nonetheless listed as getting decent vote share right now (SNP 6%, Reform 5% etc). It looks like it might be a ‘Red Wall’ vote given its biggest support is in the North, but it’s got identical support among leavers and remainers. Does anybody else have an explanation?

I'm not sure it is coming from smaller parties, simply because they don't have enough voters to influence the poll that much. All of them put together got about 13% of the vote in 2019 - this is similar to the Lib Dem vote share so the sample should about 100 "other" voters (which would be similar to the number of Lib Dems in the sample). But there are about 400 people in their sample who didn't vote in 2019 - if a lot of them said they'd vote for other parties this might cause the slightly odd figures we're seeing.

Worth noting that in addition to being disproportionately northern, these hypothetical supporters of some other party seem to be slightly older than the population as a whole, and more working class too. Though as with all crosstabs this should be taken with a bucket of salt.

I wonder if it's 2019 Brexit Party voters who don't know what Reform UK is and are responding 'Other' as their intended VI would be Brexit Party (or UKIP). That would also explain why Northern and working class voters have a high 'Other' vote, but wouldn't explain why Remain voters say 'Other' as much as they did (perhaps independents?).

Additionally, it could simply be an oddity of the weighting or any combination of things.

[jamie]

Aug 26, 2022 14:18:55 GMT clyde1998 said:

I wonder if it's 2019 Brexit Party voters who don't know what Reform UK is and are responding 'Other' as their intended VI would be Brexit Party (or UKIP). That would also explain why Northern and working class voters have a high 'Other' vote, but wouldn't explain why Remain voters say 'Other' as much as they did (perhaps independents?).

Reform UK is on 5% and is getting 9% from the Conservatives (but 0% from Labour) which doesn’t suggest they are being under sampled or are an ideological unknown.  

[clyde1998]

Aug 26, 2022 14:30:34 GMT jamie said:

Aug 26, 2022 14:18:55 GMT clyde1998 said:

I wonder if it's 2019 Brexit Party voters who don't know what Reform UK is and are responding 'Other' as their intended VI would be Brexit Party (or UKIP). That would also explain why Northern and working class voters have a high 'Other' vote, but wouldn't explain why Remain voters say 'Other' as much as they did (perhaps independents?).

Reform UK is on 5% and is getting 9% from the Conservatives (but 0% from Labour) which doesn’t suggest they are being under sampled or are an ideological unknown.  

That's true, but could still be worth a percentage point or two. It'll be interesting to see if it's repeated in their future polling.

[carolus]

Aug 26, 2022 10:21:34 GMT jamie said:

Matthew Goodwin’s new outfit.

One for the bin, then.