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Post by batman on Sept 2, 2022 21:18:32 GMT
According to this pollster 17% of their sample of 18-24 year olds would choose "some other party", and it's 12% in the North of England. Perhaps it's the Northern Independence Party. They also asked people whether they believe that Princess Diana died in an accident or was assassinated. (Q6 in the tables.) And was she? no, she wasn't. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 2, 2022 21:26:45 GMT
Incidentally Tim having got my "slide rule" out, as well as all sorts of other stuff, this poll suggests a swing just big enough to gain Stoke South, not just Central and North. The only seat in England won by Labour in 2017 which would stay Conservative would be Dudley North. The most unlikely Labour putative gain looks like North Somerset, which has never been on Labour's radar before but may just be seeing some creeping demographic influence from Bristol now. That would be possible on the current boundaries, I actually sense a distinct change in mood recently - although in Central the Bentilee and Ubberley by-election will be a good test of where we are as it’s probably one of the most white, elderly, working class areas of the City where I think we surprised ourselves by hanging on in 2019, and Brereton’s getting some flak currently by refusing to say who he’s backing in the leadership contest having gone from Jeremy Hunt to Tom Tugendhat to Penny Mordaunt. We’ve also got a slightly bizarre scenario of the Council Deputy Leader complaining that they’re being forced to bid for levelling up money when - allegedly - they’ve got enough already. |
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 2, 2022 21:28:58 GMT
40% said died in an accident, 29% said assassinated, 27% don’t know, 4% refused to answer. 44% of 17-24 year olds go for assassination. 30% of labour supporters vs 23% Conservative vs 17% Liberal Democrat believe in this "theory". Probably connected to the anti establishment streak in young people being more prevalent amongst Labour voters, although 23% of Tory voters is surprisingly high. |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 3, 2022 6:38:23 GMT
40% said died in an accident, 29% said assassinated, 27% don’t know, 4% refused to answer. 44% of 17-24 year olds go for assassination. I would have been with the 4%. What a ludicrous question. |
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Post by batman on Sept 3, 2022 7:20:04 GMT
One other aspect of this poll I didn't immediately clock is that, in the event of it being borne out, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives would win equal numbers of seats in London, 6 each (LD wins in Sutton & Cheam, Carshalton & Wallington, Kingston & Surbiton, Wimbledon, Richmond Park and Twickenham, and the Tories winning only Bexleyheath & Crayford, Old Bexley & Sidcup, Orpington, Hornchurch & Upminster, Romford and Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner). By comparison in 1997 the Tories still managed to win 11 seats in London.
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 3, 2022 8:19:16 GMT
40% said died in an accident, 29% said assassinated, 27% don’t know, 4% refused to answer. 44% of 17-24 year olds go for assassination. I would have been with the 4%. What a ludicrous question. From a social research perspective I think it’s a totally valid question, especially this week. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 3, 2022 10:48:48 GMT
Incidentally Tim having got my "slide rule" out, this poll suggests a swing just big enough to gain Stoke South, not just Central and North. The only seat won by Labour in 2017 which would stay Conservative would be Dudley North. The most unlikely Labour putative gain looks like North Somerset, which has never been on Labour's radar before but may just be seeing some creeping demographic influence from Bristol now. The Conservatives would still win 2 seats in the former county of Avon, Thornbury & Yate, and Weston-super-Mare. In practice the LibDems would fancy their chances of regaining that in any complete Tory meltdown. |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 3, 2022 11:23:27 GMT
Incidentally Tim having got my "slide rule" out, this poll suggests a swing just big enough to gain Stoke South, not just Central and North. The only seat won by Labour in 2017 which would stay Conservative would be Dudley North. The most unlikely Labour putative gain looks like North Somerset, which has never been on Labour's radar before but may just be seeing some creeping demographic influence from Bristol now. The Conservatives would still win 2 seats in the former county of Avon, Thornbury & Yate, and Weston-super-Mare. In practice the LibDems would fancy their chances of regaining that in any complete Tory meltdown.There won't be one |
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YL
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Post by YL on Sept 3, 2022 11:55:21 GMT
If the Tories somehow actually did sink as low as 25% in a General Election, I don't think uniform swing models would be a very good predictor of exactly where they'd lose. I also think there'd be quite a few constituencies with Labour or Lib Dem MPs whose election wouldn't have been seriously considered as a possibility by most people, probably including the MPs themselves.
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Post by andrewp on Sept 9, 2022 21:54:45 GMT
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Post by batman on Sept 9, 2022 23:46:35 GMT
so this is the first poll sampled since Liz Truss became Prime Minister.
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Post by woollyliberal on Sept 10, 2022 8:21:58 GMT
so this is the first poll sampled since Liz Truss became Prime Minister. Liz became party leader on the 5th and became PM on the 6th. YouGov polled on the 6th and 7th. Both Redfield and Wilton and People Polling polled on the 7th. We're missing Techne this week who normally publish a poll on Fridays. The average of the 3 since Liz are Lab 42, Con 29, LD 11, Grn 6.7, SNP 5, Ref 3 which is in line with what went before. |
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Post by batman on Sept 10, 2022 8:39:46 GMT
Oh dear I seem to have lost track of time then. So, absolutely no bounce from being PM. She may get a temporary bounce from current events but I doubt it will amount to that much.
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 16, 2022 11:46:54 GMT
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 23, 2022 22:40:10 GMT
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Post by andrewp on Sept 23, 2022 22:55:13 GMT
By my calculation 6% for the SNP would mean them getting 65-70% of the vote in Scotland……. |
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Post by batman on Sept 23, 2022 23:21:39 GMT
what if it were only 5.51%?
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Post by andrewp on Sept 24, 2022 6:28:24 GMT
what if it were only 5.51%? In 2019, 6% nationwide would have meant 69.6% in Scotland 5.51% would have meant 63.9% in Scotland Obviously changes in the different electorates will have changed these slightly since then but assuming the electorate of England has grown more than that of Scotland then those Scotland figures might be slightly higher. |
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Post by John Chanin on Sept 24, 2022 7:16:39 GMT
Surely everyone knows by now about cross-breaks. They interviewed just 109 people in Scotland, and they weren’t weighted to Scottish demographics, but were part of the national weighting. You can’t draw any conclusions at all about opinion in Scotland from this.
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bigfatron
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Post by bigfatron on Sept 24, 2022 7:41:46 GMT
This is starting to look like the world's most anemic new-leader bounce....
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