People Polling

[batman]

Mar 8, 2024 10:56:38 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

I didn't say that. I do think they have a good chance of being higher than the Conservatives in an opinion poll however.

will be interesting to watch. I suppose it's possible but still I have my doubts. In the end this country is going to stay an effective two-party duopoly for a long time to come yet; both Labour & the Conservatives have been written off in terms of remaining one of the big two in my lifetime & it has always been wrong so far. Indeed, Margaret Thatcher herself weighed in on this at one of these times, saying "The Labour Party will never die", one of the few things she said with which I entirely agreed. If Liz Truss had remained the leader, it was possible that this armageddon could have happened to the Tories, but while their ruthlessness is sometimes exaggerated they acted pretty quickly to prevent that.

[batman]

There is no evidence so far that Reform are going to do anything like as well as that in an actual election. Most of the people who say currently they will vote for them will end up voting Conservative again, though quite a lot will not vote at all, or vote for other parties.

[Raddy]

Mar 8, 2024 11:02:35 GMT The Bishop said:

At the moment Reform seem to have a pretty hard poll "ceiling" of around 13-14%.

Tories have scored 14% once (with this pollster) at the Truss nadir - otherwise their lowest ever scores have been 17-18%.

Fascinating!

Would that be a flexible hard ceiling?

I seem to remember the hard ceiling threshold 'expertly' suggested on here by many over the months seems to have developed a mind of its own, or perhaps it's not a ceiling at all but more a lift or elevator.

The plaintive cries of peak this or ceiling that, sounds like a man drowning in quicksand devoutly believing his feet will touch bottom soon.

By the way how many guesses can you have, before it's measured against your credibility.

[borisminor]

Mar 8, 2024 12:00:52 GMT batman said:

There is no evidence so far that Reform are going to do anything like as well as that in an actual election. Most of the people who say currently they will vote for them will end up voting Conservative again, though quite a lot will not vote at all, or vote for other parties.

I am a sceptic of this view. Reform's current polling goes well beyond mid-term blues and into long-term threat. I appreciate that they aren't as electorally successful as their polling but I don't think we will see a 2017 UKIP and 2019 Reform style collapse here. Even if Reform support did drop back by the same extent UKIP did in 2015, it would save the Conservatives 25 seats at best not likely to make a difference in the present climate. Focus groups seem to suggest that Reform voters are pretty hardened anti-Conservative voters but I doubt they will vote Labour any time soon either.

[batman]

Mar 8, 2024 12:02:31 GMT Raddy said:

Mar 8, 2024 11:02:35 GMT The Bishop said:

At the moment Reform seem to have a pretty hard poll "ceiling" of around 13-14%.

Tories have scored 14% once (with this pollster) at the Truss nadir - otherwise their lowest ever scores have been 17-18%.

Fascinating!

Would that be a flexible hard ceiling?

I seem to remember the hard ceiling threshold 'expertly' suggested on here by many over the months seems to have developed a mind of its own, or perhaps it's not a ceiling at all but more a lift or elevator.

The plaintive cries of peak this or ceiling that, sounds like a man drowning in quicksand devoutly believing his feet will touch bottom soon.

By the way how many guesses can you have, before it's measured against your credibility.

that's a really silly comment. I don't recall seeing you here before, whereas The Bishop is generally known as a sober & sensible poster who has pretty high credibility. Since I don't recall seeing you here before, I won't presume to make a judgement about your credibility, only your silliness.

[batman]

Mar 8, 2024 12:19:56 GMT borisminor said:

Mar 8, 2024 12:00:52 GMT batman said:

There is no evidence so far that Reform are going to do anything like as well as that in an actual election. Most of the people who say currently they will vote for them will end up voting Conservative again, though quite a lot will not vote at all, or vote for other parties.

I am a sceptic of this view. Reform's current polling goes well beyond mid-term blues and into long-term threat. I appreciate that they aren't as electorally successful as their polling but I don't think we will see a 2017 UKIP and 2019 Reform style collapse here. Even if Reform support did drop back by the same extent UKIP did in 2015, it would save the Conservatives 25 seats at best not likely to make a difference in the present climate. Focus groups seem to suggest that Reform voters are pretty hardened anti-Conservative voters but I doubt they will vote Labour any time soon either.

You might be misunderstanding me slightly. What I'm saying is, of the 13% who say they'll vote Reform in this poll, let's say only 7% actually do so which seems more realistic (though some would still say it'll be less than that in the end). Of the remaining 6% who don't vote Reform, I think a majority will vote Conservative, but that will only represent about 4% of the voting electorate, so nothing like enough to do more than take the edge of Labour's landslide a bit. Probably a further 1% will end up voting Labour as a negative vote against the Conservatives, so out of that the Tories would reduce Labour's lead by only 3%, leaving it still very big. I do agree with what you're saying.

[Adam in Stroud]

Mar 8, 2024 12:38:48 GMT batman said:

Mar 8, 2024 12:19:56 GMT borisminor said:

I am a sceptic of this view. Reform's current polling goes well beyond mid-term blues and into long-term threat. I appreciate that they aren't as electorally successful as their polling but I don't think we will see a 2017 UKIP and 2019 Reform style collapse here. Even if Reform support did drop back by the same extent UKIP did in 2015, it would save the Conservatives 25 seats at best not likely to make a difference in the present climate. Focus groups seem to suggest that Reform voters are pretty hardened anti-Conservative voters but I doubt they will vote Labour any time soon either.

You might be misunderstanding me slightly. What I'm saying is, of the 13% who say they'll vote Reform in this poll, let's say only 7% actually do so which seems more realistic (though some would still say it'll be less than that in the end). Of the remaining 6% who don't vote Reform, I think a majority will vote Conservative, but that will only represent about 4% of the voting electorate, so nothing like enough to do more than take the edge of Labour's landslide a bit. Probably a further 1% will end up voting Labour as a negative vote against the Conservatives, so out of that the Tories would reduce Labour's lead by only 3%, leaving it still very big. I do agree with what you're saying.

Ben Ansell has a very nice tool for running those sort of calculations (including the amount of tactical voting by Lib Dems, Labour and Greens, which, if you're being quasi-scientific about it, you could inform by looking at some of the "certain to vote for this party" polling.
link

I tried putting in these poll numbers but, following your suggestion, switched 50% of Reform back to Conservative (with no other tactical voting) and it shifted the seat totals from Lab majority of 250+ to Lab majority 150

Of course there will be tactical voting by Labour, LDs and Greens, so if these figures were borne out, even with half the Reform vote going back to the Conservatives, things are bad for the latter on best case and potentially catastrophic.

For example, if half the Reform vote goes back to Tory but the other parties also vote tactically by 50% you are into Ed Davey as LOTO territory (and quite comfortably so, at that.) Perhaps more plausibly, 50% Reform going Tory but 33% of Lab, LD and Green voting tactically allows Rishi to stay on as LOTO until defenestrated but still takes the Conservatives to sub-100 seats and Lab majority north of 250.

Obviously all fun and games, and I don't think anyone's regarding People Polling as anything but an outlier, but I recommend Ansell's tool as a way of adjusting some of the improbabilities (and also just for fun)

[The Bishop]

Mar 8, 2024 12:02:31 GMT Raddy said:

Mar 8, 2024 11:02:35 GMT The Bishop said:

At the moment Reform seem to have a pretty hard poll "ceiling" of around 13-14%.

Tories have scored 14% once (with this pollster) at the Truss nadir - otherwise their lowest ever scores have been 17-18%.

Fascinating!

Would that be a flexible hard ceiling?

I seem to remember the hard ceiling threshold 'expertly' suggested on here by many over the months seems to have developed a mind of its own, or perhaps it's not a ceiling at all but more a lift or elevator.

The plaintive cries of peak this or ceiling that, sounds like a man drowning in quicksand devoutly believing his feet will touch bottom soon.

By the way how many guesses can you have, before it's measured against your credibility.

Are u OK, hun?

[batman]

presumably not, because that poster has not reappeared since.

[timmullen]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 47% (+2)
CON: 20% (+1)
RFM: 14% (=)
LDM: 9% (=)
GRN: 8% (=)
SNP: 0% (-4)

Via @peoplepolling, 16 May.
Changes w/ 4 Apr.

[london(ex)tory]

May 17, 2024 14:24:52 GMT timmullen said:

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 47% (+2)
CON: 20% (+1)
RFM: 14% (=)
LDM: 9% (=)
GRN: 8% (=)
SNP: 0% (-4)

Via @peoplepolling, 16 May.
Changes w/ 4 Apr.

I would love the SNP to genuinely be on 0 but it looks to me like an error in the tables.

Firstly if you look at the full tables then it looks like the lines have become unaligned / one has been missed out because next to the "Some other party" label it repeats the total number of respondents rather than a percentage within each crossbreak.

Secondly if you look at the pre-turnout weighting figures, they are:

Con 12
Lab 27
LD 5
Grn 6
Ref 9
SNP 2
PC 0
Oth 1
WNV 16
DK 13

Incidentally those figures only add up to 91 which is presumably another error.

[batman]

Well I certainly have one friend who will vote SNP. In Edinburgh North & Leith I think

[hullenedge]

[batman]

New poll sampled since Sunak's election announcement, shown on GB News : Lab 47 C 20 RefUK 12 LD 9 Green 8 Others 3

[hullenedge]

[nobodyimportant]

I wonder why he didn't publish the rest of the poll.

Those 3 parties had a combined change of -6 between them

[LDCaerdydd]

Lib Dems are at 10% in that poll. Which gives a very high figure of 15% for the others - no figures for them yet.

[stodge]

Has anyone independently confirmed the 10% LD figure? I can't see any reference to it anywhere though it's quoted on Wiki.

[The Bishop]

Such an up front and reliable "pollster".

[timmullen]

There’s something on the GBNews website but it seems one needs to be a subscriber to access it: www.gbnews.com/r/entryeditor/2668515619#custom_general