jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,853
|
Post by jamie on Feb 24, 2023 12:44:05 GMT
I see this lot have Reform at a "record" 9% in their latest poll. Hmmmm. This is almost half of what they have the Conservatives at, which looking at election results… hmmmm indeed…
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Feb 24, 2023 17:46:50 GMT
|
|
|
Post by michaelarden on Feb 24, 2023 17:56:37 GMT
When was the last time the Lib Dems were fifth in a national opinion poll? 2014? Not sure how credible this one is.
|
|
|
Post by batman on Feb 24, 2023 19:08:45 GMT
Mostly it's probably credible, but probably Tories slightly too low, Labour maybe fractionally too low but not far off, Reform probably a bit too high, Green maybe fractionally too high but not hugely, and Lib Dems a bit too low.
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Feb 24, 2023 20:45:15 GMT
When was the last time the Lib Dems were fifth in a national opinion poll? 2014? Not sure how credible this one is.Given that it has the Tories on 20%, I'd say not very.
|
|
|
Post by batman on Feb 24, 2023 20:57:30 GMT
It would be interesting to know, if we could, what the actual current Tory share of the vote is. The Labour share is reasonably consistent over a narrow range in recent polling, but within a day one poll has had the Tories at 31% and another at only 20%. There is a massive world of difference between those figures. Some may think they're nearer to the higher one, others the opposite. My guess is about 26-27% personally but that's all it is, a guess.
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Feb 24, 2023 21:01:31 GMT
It would be interesting to know, if we could, what the actual current Tory share of the vote is. The Labour share is reasonably consistent over a narrow range in recent polling, but within a day one poll has had the Tories at 31% and another at only 20%. There is a massive world of difference between those figures. Some may think they're nearer to the higher one, others the opposite. My guess is about 26-27% personally but that's all it is, a guess. People Polling seem to have both Reform and the Greens higher than everyone else. I’m not sure anyone would expect them to get 17% between them. I was thinking the same earlier that a 20-31 spread is a very wide Conservative range, where as the Labour vote is in a very consistent 45-50 range. My guess would be the same as yours- about 27%
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Mar 3, 2023 11:50:49 GMT
|
|
|
Post by lackeroftalent on Mar 12, 2023 8:29:09 GMT
This poll has been getting some circulation due to the 10% Green figure.
|
|
|
Post by robert1 on Mar 20, 2023 8:17:49 GMT
Posted their latest poll-March 17th against March 8th
Con 20 -3 Lab 45 +3 Grn 13 +3 LD 9 +1 Ref 6 -1 SNP 5 +1 Oth 2 -3
|
|
|
Post by woollyliberal on Mar 20, 2023 8:41:17 GMT
It smells a bit off. Here are the rolling averages vs this poll:
Con 26 20 (6) Lab 47 45 (2) Grn 5 13 (8) LD 9 9 (0) Ref 6 6 (0) SNP 4 5 (1)
This has a huge Con - Grn shift compared to everything else over the last 5 months, double their last poll which was off in the same direction.
|
|
|
Post by lackeroftalent on Mar 20, 2023 8:58:12 GMT
I thought the 10% figure was an outlier and would likely fall back at least a couple of points in the following poll. To see a further big jump to 13% is unexpected.
Suggests something in peoplepolling's methodology given no-one else is giving the greens anything like these numbers.
|
|
|
Post by batman on Mar 20, 2023 8:59:21 GMT
More than a bit off I'd say. I really don't believe that the Greens would get half as many votes again as the Liberal Democrats. Greens too high, Tories too low, the others not far off would be my guess.
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Mar 20, 2023 9:40:20 GMT
Best score ever for the Greens right?
|
|
|
Post by lackeroftalent on Mar 20, 2023 9:58:01 GMT
Best score ever for the Greens right? Correct it appears. Some 10% and 11% over the last few years. But nothing as high as 13%. Greens received 14.5% of the vote in the euro elections 1989 but the opinion polling at the time showed no indication of that either before or following the result.
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Mar 20, 2023 10:06:59 GMT
Best score ever for the Greens right? Correct it appears. Some 10% and 11% over the last few years. But nothing as high as 13%. Greens received 14.5% of the vote in the euro elections 1989 but the opinion polling at the time showed no indication of that either before or following the result. Oh dear! Oh dear!! What some of us say to a pollster and what we do on election day are often very different. And there is an individual party differential of voting intention to actually turning out to vote. It is markedly lower with all minor parties.
|
|
|
Post by batman on Mar 20, 2023 10:42:02 GMT
Of course there is also mid-term protest voting. Sometimes that can involve transferring to the main opposition party, but sometimes voters who normally support that party experiment mid-term, and occasionally you get noteworthy by-election results (a well-known & rather extreme example is George Galloway's win in Bradford West - look at how safe Labour that seat now looks). I'm quite sure that some voters who say they'd vote Green now will go for one of the major parties come the general election, with Labour the main but not the sole beneficiary - this is likely to be especially the case in seats which are seen as closely contested, rather than for example Liverpool Walton on the one hand, and Surrey Heath on the other.
|
|
|
Post by bigfatron on Mar 20, 2023 10:52:50 GMT
Of course there is also mid-term protest voting. Sometimes that can involve transferring to the main opposition party, but sometimes voters who normally support that party experiment mid-term, and occasionally you get noteworthy by-election results (a well-known & rather extreme example is George Galloway's win in Bradford West - look at how safe Labour that seat now looks). I'm quite sure that some voters who say they'd vote Green now will go for one of the major parties come the general election, with Labour the main but not the sole beneficiary - this is likely to be especially the case in seats which are seen as closely contested, rather than for example Liverpool Walton on the one hand, and Surrey Heath on the other. Actually Surrey Heath could be quite tight as it happens - 2019 result was Tory 58.5%, Lib Dem 27.5% - a lead of 31%; factor in the current 18-20% reduction in the Tory vote and you have a 12% margin before deciding where the missing Tory votes go. Unlikely, I grant, but if the Lib Dems can get clarity within the constituency about who the main challenger is they might just take it...
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Mar 20, 2023 11:00:38 GMT
If anyone is interested the Green vote is made up of 10% of Labour voters, 9% of Lib Dems and 3% of Tories
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,600
|
Post by The Bishop on Mar 20, 2023 11:16:56 GMT
Best score ever for the Greens right? Correct it appears. Some 10% and 11% over the last few years. But nothing as high as 13%. Greens received 14.5% of the vote in the euro elections 1989 but the opinion polling at the time showed no indication of that either before or following the result. I think the Greens *did* have a poll boost afterwards, but yes not as high as 13%.
|
|