clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
|
Post by clyde1998 on Mar 20, 2023 11:33:48 GMT
Of course there is also mid-term protest voting. Sometimes that can involve transferring to the main opposition party, but sometimes voters who normally support that party experiment mid-term, and occasionally you get noteworthy by-election results (a well-known & rather extreme example is George Galloway's win in Bradford West - look at how safe Labour that seat now looks). I'm quite sure that some voters who say they'd vote Green now will go for one of the major parties come the general election, with Labour the main but not the sole beneficiary - this is likely to be especially the case in seats which are seen as closely contested, rather than for example Liverpool Walton on the one hand, and Surrey Heath on the other. I'll preface this by saying, it's almost certain this poll is an outlier.
It's possible we're seeing movement right now due to the upcoming local elections, both because a lot of people will respond to VI polls with how they intend to vote in the next election (regardless of what it is) and due to people having increased contact with local campaigners.
Looking at the crosstabs, 9% of 2019 Conservative voters said they'd 'prefer not to say' how they'll vote (compared to 5% of 2019 Labour and 2% of 2019 Lib Dem voters), whilst having 20% saying they 'don't know' how they'd vote (compared to 7% of 2019 Labour voters and 19% of 2019 Lib Dem voters) - a sizable percentage will likely return to their 2019 party come a general election. It's possible the smaller parties are doing better (at least with this pollster) as a result of their voters simply being more decided as to how they'd vote:
The result when including the 'don't know' and 'prefer not to say' responses was: Lab 35 (+2), Con 16 (-1), Grn 8 (+2), LDm 7 (-1), RUK 4 (-1), SNP 3 (nc), PC 0 (-1), Oth 1 (-2), PNTS 8 (nc), DK 17 (-1). The Greens or Reform getting around 5-6% in a general election is not completely outside the realm of possibility, it's just the overwhelming bulk of PNTS or DKs will go to one of the Conservatives, Labour or (to a lesser extent) the Lib Dems and Plaid/SNP. The Greens and Reform will likely pick up almost nothing from that quarter of the electorate.
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,892
|
Post by jamie on Mar 20, 2023 14:35:27 GMT
I think it’s important that pollsters don’t assume their results are inaccurate because they look ‘wrong’, but come on. The Reform numbers have always looked unrealistic (ironically they’re ‘only’ on 6% here), but 13% for the Greens who are only 7% behind the Conservatives? Yeah, we all know that’s not right, and that People’s Polling keeps producing results like this is not a good sign for them. Being charitable, I would suggest they need to seriously look at their sampling or anything else that could be causing these issues. Being less charitable, I’m not certain accuracy is their number 1 priority…
|
|
|
Post by batman on Mar 20, 2023 14:56:17 GMT
I disagree with the last phrase. I don't think it's in the best interests of any pollster to produce inaccurate polls. The objective is always to produce them to be as accurate as possible. There are a lot of pollsters now & the ones that have the best track record stand to do the best commercially.
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,892
|
Post by jamie on Mar 20, 2023 16:06:26 GMT
I disagree with the last phrase. I don't think it's in the best interests of any pollster to produce inaccurate polls. The objective is always to produce them to be as accurate as possible. There are a lot of pollsters now & the ones that have the best track record stand to do the best commercially. A good track record allows you to do well commercially if you are being contracted on the basis of accurate polling. People’s Polling, relative to other pollsters, gets attention for its strong results for smaller parties as well as its questions on public policy/developments (the wording of which often get criticised). Its current main client is a conservative TV channel, which is probably not disappointed with these results. It has not yet been tested at a general election, and has the best part of 2 years before it is. Whether it continues to show such results by that point, and whether it is ultimately accurate and rewarded/punished accordingly, is something we will have to wait a while to find out.
|
|
|
Post by lackeroftalent on Mar 24, 2023 8:25:31 GMT
Greens down 5 points from the 13% poll.
Westminster Voting Intention poll (22 Mar):
LAB: 43% (-2 from 17 Mar) CON: 22% (+2) LDM: 10% (+1) RFM: 9% (+3) GRN: 8% (-5) SNP: 4% (-1)
|
|
|
Post by batman on Mar 24, 2023 9:18:49 GMT
A little more realistic but both Greens & Reform look too high, and both Labour & the Tories too low.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,819
|
Post by iain on Mar 24, 2023 9:22:19 GMT
I am sceptical that 9% of voters have even heard of Reform, never mind wanting to support them.
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Mar 24, 2023 9:24:49 GMT
If you take 4% off the Greens and add to Labour, and 7% off Reform and add them to the Tories then that’s about right
|
|
|
Post by michaelarden on Mar 24, 2023 11:57:14 GMT
If you take 4% off the Greens and add to Labour, and 7% off Reform and add them to the Tories then that’s about right 10% is on the high side for the Lib Dems and 4% would be on the low side for the Greens. But that feels the right sort of ballpark.
|
|
|
Post by greenchristian on Mar 24, 2023 14:18:59 GMT
A little more realistic but both Greens & Reform look too high, and both Labour & the Tories too low. My feeling is that the "right" Green figure right now is somewhere in the 5-8% range. With the caveat that in an actual GE a large chunk of them would lend their vote to Labour, simply because they don't think we can win in their seat.
|
|
|
Post by bigfatron on Mar 24, 2023 14:29:48 GMT
A little more realistic but both Greens & Reform look too high, and both Labour & the Tories too low. My feeling is that the "right" Green figure right now is somewhere in the 5-8% range. With the caveat that in an actual GE a large chunk of them would lend their vote to Labour, simply because they don't think we can win in their seat. The average of the last seven polls (from seven different pollsters is: Labour: 46 (43 - 49) Tory: 28 (22 - 35) LDem: 9 (7 - 11) Green: 5 (2 - 8) Reform: 5 (3 - 9) SNP: 4 (3 - 4) Other: 3
Which sounds about right... showing a bit of a Tory recovery in the last week or so.
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Mar 24, 2023 14:52:25 GMT
The Conservative vote of 44% in 2019 was obviously a coalition of different groups. That’s pretty close to their maximum vote. The only group of other potential Tory voters beyond that who they could get are probably a group of middle class remainers in places like Wokingham and Guildford who voted Lib Dem in 2019
By the time of his eviction, Johnson was polling about 34%. The polling at that time suggested that he was holding the new 2019 voters but losing more traditional Conservative voters.
By the time Truss left in October, they were polling about18- 20%. She lost the new 2019 voters who liked Johnson and also some core Conservative voters who like competence.
Sunak comes in, and the Tory poll share immediately goes back up to 24% as he immediately gets back the group who just need competence.
Over the last 5 months, they have edged back up from 24 to probably nearer 29/30 but you’d suspect that many of those extra 5% might be in the chunk of traditional Con voters that Johnson had lost, not the new 2019 voters that Johnson kept.
I would suggest that with Sunak, the Tories are possibly unlikely to fall much below 25% in the polls again, and I think they are unlikely to poll less than 30% but it’s hard to see them getting much more than 35-37%.
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Mar 24, 2023 15:03:13 GMT
If you take 4% off the Greens and add to Labour, and 7% off Reform and add them to the Tories then that’s about right A little more realistic but both Greens & Reform look too high, and both Labour & the Tories too low. My feeling is that the "right" Green figure right now is somewhere in the 5-8% range. With the caveat that in an actual GE a large chunk of them would lend their vote to Labour, simply because they don't think we can win in their seat. though from the numbers the majority of green voters aren't labour
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on Mar 24, 2023 15:27:44 GMT
The Conservative vote of 44% in 2019 was obviously a coalition of different groups. That’s pretty close to their maximum vote. The only group of potential Tory voters beyond that who they could get are probably a group of middle class remainers in places like Wokingham and Guildford who voted Lib Dem in 2019 By the time of his eviction, Johnson was polling about 34%. The polling at that time suggested that he was holding the new 2019 voters but losing more traditional Conservative voters. By the time Truss left in October, they were polling about18- 20%. She lost the new 2019 voters who liked Johnson and also some core Conservative voters who like competence. Sunak comes in, and the Tory poll share immediately goes back up to 24% as he immediately gets back the group who just need competence. Over the last 5 months, they have edged back up from 24 to probably nearer 29/30 but you’d suspect that many of those extra 5% might be in the chunk of traditional Con voters that Johnson had lost, not the new 2019 voters that Johnson kept. I would suggest that with Sunak, the Tories are possibly unlikely to fall much below 25% in the polls again, and I think they are unlikely to poll less than 30% but it’s hard to see them getting much more than 35-37%. 35 to 37 could be enough to stop labour getting a majority, particularly if the Tory collapse is worse in areas more vulnerable to the Lib Dems (themselves in a bit of a mess), and the SNP manage to broadly hold ground in Scotland.
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Mar 31, 2023 10:04:45 GMT
|
|
|
Post by londonseal80 on Apr 3, 2023 17:02:28 GMT
Of course there is also mid-term protest voting. Sometimes that can involve transferring to the main opposition party, but sometimes voters who normally support that party experiment mid-term, and occasionally you get noteworthy by-election results (a well-known & rather extreme example is George Galloway's win in Bradford West - look at how safe Labour that seat now looks). I'm quite sure that some voters who say they'd vote Green now will go for one of the major parties come the general election, with Labour the main but not the sole beneficiary - this is likely to be especially the case in seats which are seen as closely contested, rather than for example Liverpool Walton on the one hand, and Surrey Heath on the other. Actually Surrey Heath could be quite tight as it happens - 2019 result was Tory 58.5%, Lib Dem 27.5% - a lead of 31%; factor in the current 18-20% reduction in the Tory vote and you have a 12% margin before deciding where the missing Tory votes go. Unlikely, I grant, but if the Lib Dems can get clarity within the constituency about who the main challenger is they might just take it... They will have bigger targets in Surrey but nothing is impossible, I have only Surrey East as an absolute dead cert Tory hold with Reigate, Runnymede and Epsom as likely to stay Conservative. Surrey Heath falls in this category too.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,798
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 15, 2023 10:48:24 GMT
Have this lot stopped bothering?
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 15, 2023 19:26:07 GMT
I think they're part of the new elite.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,798
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 16, 2023 9:28:39 GMT
Pol Prof Badloss appears to be moving on to skull measurement now.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,798
|
Post by The Bishop on Sept 9, 2023 8:50:42 GMT
I understand that this outfit has rejoined the fray, I'm sure you are all very excited at this news.
|
|