jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 25, 2022 14:01:18 GMT
EDIT: The SocLibs (Radikale) are at 3.8%, their worst result in a Voxmeter poll in 1.5 years, and SPP it approaching double digits at 9.6%. DPP and The Alternative both below the threshold. Honestly, the Radikale vote loss isn’t THAT bad given they’ve been largely sidelined for 3 years and now both the Social Democrats and Moderates have stolen their thunder on forming a government across the middle. Obviously not good, but could be worse for a party that feels a bit irrelevant. The growth in the SF vote is a bit surprising but understandable. They’ve been a very loyal support party of the kind that often suffers, but their leader is very popular and the party’s positioning makes it an easy back-up option for S and RV voters who worry their former parties may move a bit too far to the right (particularly relevant given the discussion about a cross-bloc government). In contrast, the EL polling has gotten weaker as it usually does come the election period, and if they get their usual small underperformance come election day then they will do worse than their 2019 result. You would think they’d also capitalise on S and RV moving towards the middle, but it seems SF is being viewed as a better option. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 25, 2022 14:42:57 GMT
EDIT: The SocLibs (Radikale) are at 3.8%, their worst result in a Voxmeter poll in 1.5 years, and SPP it approaching double digits at 9.6%. DPP and The Alternative both below the threshold. Honestly, the Radikale vote loss isn’t THAT bad given they’ve been largely sidelined for 3 years and now both the Social Democrats and Moderates have stolen their thunder on forming a government across the middle. Obviously not good, but could be worse for a party that feels a bit irrelevant. The growth in the SF vote is a bit surprising but understandable. They’ve been a very loyal support party of the kind that often suffers, but their leader is very popular and the party’s positioning makes it an easy back-up option for S and RV voters who worry their former parties may move a bit too far to the right (particularly relevant given the discussion about a cross-bloc government). In contrast, the EL polling has gotten weaker as it usually does come the election period, and if they get their usual small underperformance come election day then they will do worse than their 2019 result. You would think they’d also capitalise on S and RV moving towards the middle, but it seems SF is being viewed as a better option. The growth in the SPP vote was to be expected imo when the SocDems move right on economics, it's the second choice for lots of left-leaning SocDems, they're the party with the most second preferences of all Danish parties (and would benefit massively from STV if it was ever introduced), and Pia Olsen Dyhr scores high on credibility and competence. I would actually have expected them to do a bit better and be at around 12%, but their pro-welfare expansion message may ring a bit hollow in an inflation crisis where economic responsibility is high on the agenda (one of their young candidates promised free dentistry and psychological treatment and they had to point out that wasn't party policy because they couldn't find a way to finance it). The Red Greens lack a charismatic and eloquent front figure like Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen and Pernille Skipper which they depend on and, as you say, they're bad campaigners. Radikale usually have three main selling points: promoting broad cooperation, "decency"/"humanism" and representing voters that are economically centre-right but agree with the left on most other things (incl. green issues), and the Moderates aren't exactly left on non-economic issues even if they're softer than the Liberals. It's not just being irrelevant but having a negative image (hypocrites on #MeToo, perceived as arrogant and out of touch etc). It's a broader image crisis which may be hard to fix. Anything below 4% would be quite bad because it's hard to see a basis for relaunching the party if their seats don't matter. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 25, 2022 15:10:31 GMT
Faroese poll by spyr.fo
Doesn't look like it'll be remotely competitive, the incumbent SocDem will keep his seat and the Union Party's lead candidate will replace former Lawman (Premier) Edmund Joensen. That's one extra seat to the Danish SocDems and the Liberals. The People's Party's anti-sanction pitch didn't work, I guess Russia's war crimes and atrocities after all made it too problematic to portray Russia solely as a crucial market for Faroese seafood which the nasty Danes and EU try to spoil.
Union Party 29.9%
SocDems 27.3%
Republic 18.7%
People's Party 16.7%
Centre 4.3%
Progress 3.2%
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 26, 2022 15:23:47 GMT
I'm going to post all polls during the final week, this is YouGov published yesterday in tabloid BT with the SocDems above 28% (roughly the size of the three following parties combined) and the Moderates just below 10%, but only 0.8 point behind the Liberals. Probably not very accurate, but included anyway.
Greens: 3.0
The Alternative 2.3
Free Greens 0.7
Reds: 43.6
SocDems 28.6
SPP 8.3
Red Greens 6.7
Centrists: 13.7
Moderates 9.6
Social Liberals 3.6
Christian Democrats 0.5
Mainstream centre-right: 24.0
Liberals 10.4
Liberal Alliance 7.1
Conservatives 6.5
Populist centre-right/right: 15.4
Denmark Democrats 8.5
New Right 4.3
DPP 2.6
...
More than 20% support:
SocDems 28.6
10-20%
Liberals 10.4
5-10%
Moderates 9.6
Denmark Democrats 8.5
SPP 8.3
Liberal Alliance 7.1
Red Greens 6.7
Conservatives 6.5
2-5%
New Right 4.3
Social Liberals 3.6
DPP 2.6
The Alternative 2.3
Below 2%
Free Greens 0.7
Christian Democrats 0.5
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 26, 2022 16:57:18 GMT
I'm going to post all polls during the final week, this is YouGov published yesterday in tabloid BT with the SocDems above 28% (roughly the size of the three following parties combined) and the Moderates just below 10%, but only 0.8 point behind the Liberals. Probably not very accurate, but included anyway. Yeah, YouGov tend to be good for the relatively value conservative parties within each bloc (SD, DF, DD, NB) while very poor for Venstre. Given they had the same biases in 2019 and they were all wrong, I wouldn’t put much stock in their polls. |
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Post by nelson on Oct 26, 2022 18:35:42 GMT
I'm going to post all polls during the final week, this is YouGov published yesterday in tabloid BT with the SocDems above 28% (roughly the size of the three following parties combined) and the Moderates just below 10%, but only 0.8 point behind the Liberals. Probably not very accurate, but included anyway. Yeah, YouGov tend to be good for the relatively value conservative parties within each bloc (SD, DF, DD, NB) while very poor for Venstre. Given they had the same biases in 2019 and they were all wrong, I wouldn’t put much stock in their polls. But their house effect should be equally negative for the Moderates so it's still interesting that they have the (rump-)Liberals and the Moderates almost tied. And 15% for the populist right combined is far from unrealistic, that's broadly in line with other polls and what you'd expect them to get before the campaign started. |
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Post by nelson on Oct 27, 2022 14:43:01 GMT
The SocDems have proposed raising public sector wages by 3 billion DKK to retain and attract qualified, but their proposal has been criticized for being launched for opportunistic reasons, that it's too little, too vague and will take too long to implement to have an effect, economists warn of added inflation pressure and trade unions not benefitting from it want compensation. Too early to say whether this will backfire, or simply have little effect, but I doubt it'll win them many votes.
New Right has accused Frederiksen of trying to "buy votes", other opposition parties have been a bit more subtle, but basically have similar criticism.
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Post by nelson on Oct 27, 2022 21:32:03 GMT
Løkke Rasmussen has proposed that the universal "people's pension" (introduced in the 50s and considered a cornerstone of the welfare state) should be phased out over 20-30 years, and he also wants the next generation of elderly to pay for their own care. That seems like a pretty big gamble and could push some ex-SocDems away, the SocDem attack ads on Løkke during the "home stretch" basically writes themselves now. I suppose the Moderates' internal polling show more potential gains among Blue Bloc voters than SocDems, but still rather odd.
Several leading SocDems are saying nice things about The Alternative and former party leader Mogens Lykktoft (who was Frederiksen's political mentor) has directly urged undecided left wingers to choose The Alternative to avoid wasting votes. Considering how negative the SocDems have hitherto been towards using The Alternative as basis for a government (or cooperation about anything important really) that's a genuine change and a signal they're still hoping for a Red Bloc majority despite all the broad government talk (as are the new focus on attacking Løkke and the Moderates).
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 27, 2022 21:57:46 GMT
Løkke Rasmussen has proposed that the universal "people's pension" (introduced in the 50s and considered a cornerstone of the welfare state) should be phased out over 20-30 years, and he also wants the next generation of elderly to pay for their own care. That seems like a pretty big gamble and could push some ex-SocDems away, the SocDem attack ads on Løkke during the "home stretch" basically writes themselves now. I suppose the Moderates' internal polling show more potential gains among Blue Bloc voters than SocDems, but still rather odd. Several leading SocDems are saying nice things about The Alternative and former party leader Mogens Lykktoft (who was Frederiksen's political mentor) has directly urged undecided left wingers to choose The Alternative to avoid wasting votes. Considering how negative the SocDems have hitherto been towards using The Alternative as basis for a government (or cooperation about anything important really) that's a genuine change and a signal they're still hoping for a Red Bloc majority despite all the broad government talk (as are the new focus on attacking Løkke and the Moderates). The main parties attacks on The Moderates have looked a bit desperate/hysterical so far, but this does seem something that could help the SDs claw back a lot of the votes they’ve lost in the past couple of weeks. It should at least help the SDs focus on the supposed threat to welfare look more credible (which it probably needed after Pape’s collapse). Tbf The Alternative declared themselves a separate ‘Green Bloc’ before the last election and soon after were composed of a single MF, so it’s not like they were ever a party that was attractive to work with. With the hardliners gone to the Free Greens, a rump party that knows it needs left wing tactical votes to get in and then influence to keep its voters seems like a potential negotiating partner. The Alternative crossing the threshold is the only real hope for a Red majority and could be useful for Frederiksen, while a non-Red majority with or without the Alternative would all have the same basic maths so there’s not much to really lose by trying to get them in. |
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Post by nelson on Oct 28, 2022 6:57:26 GMT
The Social Liberals (Radikale) are down to seven seats in new Voxmeter poll and stand to lose both of their seats in the Greater Copenhagen constituency, which would mean party leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen wouldn't get reelected. Would be amusing if SCN loses her seat after forcing Frederiksen to call an early election.
The Conservatives at 5.9, first poll under 6 but their decline has slowed down and they're likely close to their floor now.
EDIT: Lars Løkke Rasmussen has become ill and has cancelled all interviews and arrangements, might harm them if he can't participate in the two final party leader debates. They've tried backtracking on the pension reform, saying it won't affect anyone currently on the labour market. If Løkke suddenly gets well enough to participate in the debates it'll be interpreted as him pulling a sickie to get out of the critical interviews after the pension debacle.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 28, 2022 9:38:59 GMT
Only if you primarily measure "right wing" as having a negative view of immigration from the Islamic world and other societies with norms on gender, sex, religion, conflict solution and family that conflict with the Scandinavian ones (which is to a large extent rooted in a desire to maintain a socially liberal and secular consensus, not exactly right wing goals) and that's a very myopic view on what it means to be right wing. Besides in Denmark it's the right that's positive towards labour migration which articles written by people from the anglosphere never seem to get right. Denmark is quite left wing on welfare and all sorts of green issues, socially liberal on issues relating to sex, gender and alcohol and fairly middle of the road on crime prevention in a European context. |
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Post by nelson on Oct 28, 2022 10:00:09 GMT
The Voxmeter poll. The Moderates down 1.5 points from their previous poll, which looks like an outlier. Liberals below the level they've had in recent polls by reputable pollsters. The combined right wing populist vote is similar to YouGov. DPP now solidly above the threshold, The Alternative close to it, but should make on tactical votes.
Greens: 3.0
The Alternative 2.2
Free Greens 0.8
Reds: 42.0
SocDems 26.2
SPP 9.8
Red Greens 6.0
Centrists: 14.3
Moderates 10.0
Social Liberals 4.1
Christian Democrats 0.2
Mainstream centre-right: 25.2
Liberals 12.5
Liberal Alliance 6.8
Conservatives 5.9
Populist centre-right/right: 15.5
Denmark Democrats 8.8
New Right 3.7
DPP 3.0
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 28, 2022 12:11:17 GMT
It says in the article I posted that the Danish PM would prefer a coalition with the centrist parties rather than the left-wing parties. Is that true? She’s publicly claimed that a coalition across the middle is her goal, which in practice would have to include either the Liberals and/or the Conservatives. Of course none of the centre-right parties have indicated any willingness to form such a government, and it’s not clear whether this is something that would change after the election. From Frederiksen’s perspective, it may be the case that calling for a government across the middle is just a good way of getting some swing voters back on side (the idea itself is very popular and seemed to benefit the Liberals in 2019) which can help prevent a pure-right wing majority and/or give her more negotiating power if a left wing majority does emerge. Also, if you look at the previous Parliament, it’s not the farthest left party that is the problem (Enhedslisten), but rather the ‘centrist’ Radikale Venstre who are flaky on some welfare issues, issuing demands on immigration and ultimately bringing down the government. |
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Post by nelson on Oct 28, 2022 15:25:05 GMT
Megafon poll, much better for the Liberals than Voxmeter's and worse for the SocDems and Denmark Democrats, otherwise fairly similar. Has the Conservatives on 5.7, their lowest level yet in this campaign. Nearly 3 points better for the mainstream centre-right than Voxmeter. Only credible if Støjberg is losing a lot of support directly to her old party, and I'm sceptical about that.
Greens: 3.2
The Alternative 2.5
Free Greens 0.7
Reds: 40.4
SocDems 24.8
SPP 9.4
Red Greens 6.2
Centrists: 14.6
Moderates 9.7
Social Liberals 4.2
Christian Democrats 0.7
Mainstream centre-right: 28.1
Liberals 14.9
Liberal Alliance 7.5
Conservatives 5.7
Populist centre-right/right: 13.7
Denmark Democrats 7.0
New Right 4.2
DPP 2.5
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Post by nelson on Oct 28, 2022 17:54:57 GMT
Lars Løkke Rasmussen has become ill and has cancelled all interviews and arrangements, might harm them if he can't participate in the two final party leader debates. They've tried backtracking on the pension reform, saying it won't affect anyone currently on the labour market. If Løkke suddenly gets well enough to participate in the debates it'll be interpreted as him pulling a sickie to get out of the critical interviews after the pension debacle. According to his staff he'll return to the campaign trail tomorrow...  |
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Post by nelson on Oct 29, 2022 9:27:27 GMT
The Faroese results will be published as soon as they're counted, so several hours before the vote takes place in Denmark and Greenland. The islands got their own election law and that doesn't allow for a delay.
(they're voting on Monday due to Tuesday being a memorial day for those that have died at sea)
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Post by nelson on Oct 29, 2022 14:05:02 GMT
An analysis of undecided voters show both a big change compared to the usual pattern caused by the fragmentation of the party system and that the group is a lot bigger than in a "normal" election. Usually the group of undecideds is dominated by low info voters with limited interest in politics and prone to vote based on gut feeling and emotional appeal, this time the undecideds are better educated, more interested in politics than the average voter but trying to figure out how to navigate the new political landscape and who'll benefit their interests. The group is also more interested in the impact on their personal economy and life situation than the average voter.
The typical undecided is a woman aged 20-40 with tertiary education and a non-manual job, living in a city and focused on self-interest, safety and stability. There's an over representation of public sector employees.
When pushed to pick a direction then lean roughly 380k of the undecided say they lean towards the Blue Bloc, 240k towards the Red Bloc and 70k towards the Moderates. So the Blue Bloc should have an advantage if they're able to mobilize these voters (who are probably more likely to vote than undecideds usually are). But the 140k difference is not enough to fully close the gap to the Red Bloc. The Liberals final attack on the SocDems is on taxes and foreigner policy, so designed to target these voters.
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Post by nelson on Oct 29, 2022 18:10:08 GMT
New Megafon poll conducted today and yesterday (their previous one was conducted on 26-28), the only notable changes from the previous one is DPP +1.4 to 3.9, Liberals -0.9 to 14.0 and the Denmark Democrats down 0.8 to 6.2. Since the previous one was unusually good for the Liberals it's only really a potential switch from DD to DPP that's interesting. Støjberg has led a weak campaign and some ex-DPP voters returning home near the end of the campaign is definitely a possibility. It's a week ago since the last Epinion poll so I'd expected them to publish one today, but apparently they prefer to wait until we get closer to the election day.
Greens: 3.3
The Alternative 2.8
Free Greens 0.5
Reds: 40.2
SocDems 24.7
SPP 9.7
Red Greens 5.8
Centrists: 14.2
Moderates 9.3
Social Liberals 4.1
Christian Democrats 0.8
Mainstream centre-right: 27.8
Liberals 14.0
Liberal Alliance 7.7
Conservatives 6.1
Populist centre-right/right: 14.4
Denmark Democrats 6.2
New Right 4.3
DPP 3.9
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Post by nelson on Oct 29, 2022 18:16:44 GMT
The Red Bloc launched a joint environmental plan (a ban on pesticides on 5% of the country to secure clean drinking water), first joint Red Bloc initiative during the campaign, and a SocDem sign that the left/centre left will keep cooperating on green issues.
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Post by nelson on Oct 30, 2022 8:38:32 GMT
No DPP gain in Epinion, they're at 2.4. Denmark Democrats at 8.6. One of the best polls for the SocLibs in a while and the Moderates well below the 10% level (and below LA). The Moderates are now under attack from all sides, so would be natural if they've declined a bit.
Greens: 3.0
The Alternative 2.3
Free Greens 0.7
Reds: 39.4
SocDems 24.4
SPP 8.7
Red Greens 6.3
Centrists: 13.4
Moderates 8.3
Social Liberals 4.7
Christian Democrats 0.4
Mainstream centre-right: 27.7
Liberals 13.3
Liberal Alliance 8.6
Conservatives 5.8
Populist centre-right/right: 16.2
Denmark Democrats 8.6
New Right 5.2
DPP 2.4
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