Danish Parliamentary Election 2022

[nelson]

It's now clear that Denmark will go to the polls either in late summer or in the autumn to elect a new Folketing, most likely the latter.

Following a commission report on the government's illegal mass culling of mink during the pandemic which de facto ended the country's mink production (see the Denmark thread) the main board of the Social Liberals met yesterday, and after consulting with them the party leadership decided to demand an election, which means PM Mette Frederiksen no longer has a majority. They'll present Frederiksen with a motion of no confidence when parliament reconvenes on 4 October if she hasn't called an election before then, so it'll likely be a September election.

The centre-right Blue Bloc parties are unhappy (to put it mildly) with the SocLibs for not backing an attorney inquiry and still want Frederiksen charged before a Realm Court if they win the election, they claim that since the government was going to call an election anyway this is all for show and agreed between the SocDems and SocLibs. They may be right.

EDIT: The election will be held on Tuesday the 1st of November.

[jamie]

nelson Presumably if the Social Liberals call an election because they don’t have confidence in Frederiksen, then it seems rather unlikely (at the very least illogical) for them to back her after the election (even if she does ‘government of the centre’)?

[Harry Hayfield]

Are you not counting the parties who only stand in the Faroe Islands and Greenland then?

[nelson]

Jul 2, 2022 14:47:05 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Are you not counting the parties who only stand in the Faroe Islands and Greenland then?

No, that would be a very long list and few people would pick one of them. 

[johnloony]

As a moderate liberal conservative, and as someone who has not examined the parties’ policies in detail, I decided to vote for one of the parties which didn’t yet have a vote. Thus the poll (at the moment) is 1 vote each for 7 different parties.

[YL]

Socialist People's Party, I think. There are lots of options and they have some confusing names...

[ibfc]

New Right

[WJ]

Venstre (Liberals) for me. They are probably closest to Sweden's Centerpartiet (who I'll be voting for in September).

[jamie]

Since we've got a poll and a load of new parties that most posters will never had heard of, here's a brief summary of each party from left to right:

Free Greens - Green and pro-immigration party. Founded as a splinter from the imploding Alternative, seems to be a bit of a Muslim interests party and focuses heavily on perceived racism against Muslims. Won't back any government, not that they're likely to get seats anyways. 

The Alternative - Denmark's attempt at a proper green party. Imploded shortly after the 2019 election, it still has a few elected officials but is likely to fall below the threshold this time. 

Vegan Party - What it says on the tin. Lost its fundamentalist wing, and probably should have named itself 'Animal Welfare Party' or something similar as the name dooms it to be below the threshold (but begrudgingly backs Frederiksen if they somehow make it). 

Red-Greens - The main far-left party. The party includes some cranks, but is fairly mainstream/pragmatic for a European far-left party. Expected positions on economic/social issues, it is officially eurosceptic and has a very tankie history on foreign policy (but no longer wants to leave the EU and narrowly backed weapons to Ukraine, so this is changing). Often outside policy agreements, but will back Frederiksen for PM if needed. 

Socialist People's - Mainstream left wing party. Founded as a pro-democracy/human rights splinter from the Communist Party, the party is not remotely far left these days but rather a green, pro-welfare state party (and pragmatic on immigration). Basically a slightly more left/progressive version of the Social Democrats, whom they will definitely back in government formation. 

Social Democrats - The main centre-left party. Basically what you would expect of a modern labour party, except they're pretty hardcore on immigration (arguably more anti-immigration than the mainstream right these days). They're also fairly green and have a strong focus on the working class, particularly the elderly. Currently in government, would like to keep the current single-party arrangement but will presumably accept a multi-party government they lead if forced on them. 

Social Liberals - A socially liberal party. The party is fairly neoliberal on the economy (especially when it comes to pensions and other labour market policies), but is ultra woke on social issues like immigration. Consequently, it doesn't really like the current government but cannot back a right wing one. Wants a cross-bloc government after the election, by which they mean a government where they are once again in the driving seat. May back a red Frederiksen government if she lets them try to repeat the 2011-2015 government where they ran the show. 

Christian Democrats - Moderate Christian politics. Founded as a moral Conservative party, they've tried to move away from this image with a focus on cross-bloc cooperation, supporting refugees, tackling climate change etc. Moderately right wing on the economy. Their popular leader just quit which will doom them to fall even further under the threshold. Wants a blue government, but not the kind that is on offer. 

Moderates - Liberal-conservative party. After falling out with his party, former Liberal prime minister Lars Lokke has founded the Moderates as a vaguely liberal-conservative outfit that is basically a more socially liberal version of the Liberals. Lokke left office unpopular and his party is very niche, so they're polling around the threshold. Officially not part of either bloc, he wants cross-bloc cooperation and its hard to imagine a blue government getting both his and New Right's support (1 of their conditions last election was his removal). 

Liberals - Centre-right party. Denmark's main centre-right party at the last election, they represent the mainstream of the right wing with a rural bent. The party lost loads of its support after both Lokke and former immigration minister Stojberg left the party, and is now competing with the Conservatives for leadership of the blue bloc. Wants to lead a blue government, and says it would not back a cross-bloc government with the Social Democrats (which would be electoral suicide). 

Conservatives - Centre-right party. Basically a slightly more right wing (but a bit greener) and suburban version of the Liberals. Has surged thanks to both Liberal infighting as well as the popularity of their leader Pape. Presumably wants to lead a blue government, but would back the Liberals if need be (it ain't backing the Social Democrats). 

Liberal Alliance - Right wing libertarianism. Founded by the right wing of the Social Liberals, they soon became a strongly low tax/free market party that cares a lot less about social liberalism. Was close to the threshold at the last election and for most of the Parliament, but has risen a bit lately. Wants a blue government, and will push it to the economic right. 

Denmark Democrats - Anti-immigration. Essentially a personal vehicle for Inger Stojberg (hard-line former Liberal immigration minister who was impeached), it also looks likely to have a number of former Danish People's Party MPs. Will focus heavily on immigration, and has also indicated it will be (relatively) right wing on green issues and the EU, but more moderate on some economic issues eg; they support the Social Democrats law on early retirement for worn out workers. No polls yet, but expected to cross the threshold. Will only back a blue led government, and wants to have close influence on it. The fact most of the blue politicians (including her former party) voted for her impeachment may or may not be an issue. 

Danish People's Party - Anti-immigration. One of the most successful 'populist radical right' parties in the world, the DPP has shaped Danish immigration policy for 2 decades now. Strongly anti-immigration, the party has been borderline social-democratic on economic issues and provided a majority for the current government on more than one occasion. The party has basically imploded since 2019, with most MPs defecting and more competition on the anti-immigration right. May still make the threshold, but a shadow of its former self. Backs a blue government, and the new more right wing leadership would be less likely to put the break on LA-style economic policies. 

New Right - Hard-right. Strongly anti-immigration, nationalist, free market and relatively socially conservative. Questionable how extreme they are, as the party now claims to back the Social Democrats pensions reform (and have struck a populist tone on some other welfare issues) despite previously attacking the other parties as insufficiently ideologically pure and chasing after the supporters of a properly far right party. Despite being founded by a former Conservative, they have attracted much of their post-2019 support from the DPP (too moderate/tax and spend) and the Liberals (the loss of Stojberg). Will only back a blue government. They will make demands that are hard to meet, especially if Lokke's party is needed, but the New Right have worked with other blue parties in local municipalities and are realistically needed for any blue government these days. 

[jamie]

Jul 2, 2022 19:27:16 GMT WJ said:

Venstre (Liberals) for me. They are probably closest to Sweden's Centerpartiet (who I'll be voting for in September).

I would have thought the closest counterpart would be Radikale, given they're both socially liberal freeish market parties that are forced to back centre-left governments because a right wing government requires some very anti-immigration parties and policies. 

[nelson]

Jul 2, 2022 19:27:16 GMT WJ said:

Venstre (Liberals) for me. They are probably closest to Sweden's Centerpartiet (who I'll be voting for in September).

The two main centre-right parties in Denmark (Venstre and Conservatives) have fairly similar policies and are both closest to the Moderates in Sweden. They have much tougher immigration and law & order policies than Centre, don't appeal to "progressive" types and apart from a few youth politicians haven't flirted with Libertarianism like Centre.

Venstre is fairly close to the Finnish Centre Party, but that's the most conservative of the Nordic Centre parties, the Norwegian and Icelandic parties are well to its left and the Swedish has as you know been almost schizophrenic for a while trying to bridge urban libertarians and/or "progressives" and its traditional rural base (which is usually a bit more right wing in the north where it's the main centre-right party than further south). The Nordic Agrarian family doesn't really have that much in common nowadays and Venstre was always an outlier because Danish farmers where generally better off than their colleagues in the other countries and the smallholders supported the Social Liberals (Radikale Venstre).

The Danish and Swedish centre-right are structured differently and there are usually no 1:1 matches. If you do want to "translate" Venstre is the non-bourgeois part of the Moderates + Centre in Northern Sweden, and the Conservatives are the bourgeois/elite part of the Moderates + the right wing of the Swedish Liberals. The difference between Venstre and the Conservatives is more about class, tradition and culture (incl. party culture) than policy.

Annie Lööf's views on economics are similar to Liberal Alliance's, but other than that Centre (or at least the urban part of Centre) have the most in common with the Social Liberals. LA was indirectly founded as a breakaway from Radikale Venstre's right wing (via two other parties) and once had similarities with urban/non-traditional Centre, but has morphed into a more traditional right wing party and its more "humanistic" wing left after the last election.

There hasn't been that many parties competing since the mid to late 80s (where the number of micro parties on the far left peaked), and I'll do a short write-up at some point.

[Devil Wincarnate]

There isn't going to be a gushing Graun article about Mette, is there?

[ibfc]

Jul 2, 2022 22:14:05 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

There isn't going to be a gushing Graun article about Mette, is there?

Not their kind of centre left woman

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Conservative. I like the conservatism combined with green concerns.

[rcronald]

New Right

[The Bishop]

What happened to the (basically fascist) Hard Line that people were making a fuss about a year or two ago?

[jamie]

Jul 3, 2022 9:21:52 GMT The Bishop said:

What happened to the (basically fascist) Hard Line that people were making a fuss about a year or two ago?

Didn’t make the threshold at the 2019 election. They were polling ~1% until late 2020 when they dropped off the polls. They possibly only even got registered on the basis of a legal loophole that has since been fixed. Their founder was found to be discussing hardcore sexual fantasies with underage boys online and has since focused his attention on his native Sweden where burning the Quran gets much more attention and violence. 

[aargauer]

Liberal Alliance. Sadly unable to vote for my fellow vegans. Free vegans right wing splinter anyone?

[Merseymike]

Probably Socialist People's Party, maybe Red Green?

[jamie]

Jul 3, 2022 12:45:30 GMT Merseymike said:

Probably Socialist People's Party, maybe Red Green?

I’d guess Red Green. The Socialists are essentially the soft left, inoffensive option on the left. The Red Greens are more ideological, radical and willing to oppose the policies of even the governments they themselves back. They are functionally the same in that they both push the Social Democrats a little to the left, but only the Socialists are keen on getting in government and the sort of compromises that come along with that.