Danish Parliamentary Election 2022

[nelson]

Mette Frederiksen has been at Amalienborg palace to inform the Queen and subsequently confirmed that the SocDems are going into government with the Liberals and Moderates. 

The new government will be presented to the Queen on Thursday, but the three party leaders will present the government agreement at a press conference tomorrow.  

[greenhert]

Dec 13, 2022 19:12:20 GMT nelson said:

Mette Frederiksen has been at Amalienborg palace to inform the Queen and subsequently confirmed that the SocDems are going into government with the Liberals and Moderates. 

The new government will be presented to the Queen on Thursday, but the three party leaders will present the government agreement at a press conference tomorrow.  

Denmark almost never has "grand coalitions", unlike Austria. I doubt this will turn out well.

[nelson]

Dec 13, 2022 21:48:02 GMT greenhert said:

Dec 13, 2022 19:12:20 GMT nelson said:

Mette Frederiksen has been at Amalienborg palace to inform the Queen and subsequently confirmed that the SocDems are going into government with the Liberals and Moderates. 

The new government will be presented to the Queen on Thursday, but the three party leaders will present the government agreement at a press conference tomorrow.  

Denmark's first ever "Grand Coalition" in fact. Then again the difference between the Social Democrats and Venstre (Liberals) is not that significant at all.

No, even if you don't include the ones from 1940-43 there was a SocDem/Liberal government in 1978/79. 

[nelson]

Dec 12, 2022 1:18:51 GMT nelson said:

Predictably some Liberals aren't happy. 

Their youth org VU says that they won't campaign for the mother party in the next election if they join a SocDem led government, their chairman says that "we're against a SocDem led government regardless of who sits in it" and that they'll have to reevaluate their relationship with the mother party if it "doesn't work for a Liberal Denmark anymore". 

Liberal councillor in Copenhagen Cille Hald Egholm tweeted: "one thing is breaching a promise by going into government in exchange for significant concessions, but to give up a legal inquiry of a potential breach of the Constitution for a couple of cabinet posts that's fucking insane and goes against everything we stand for in the Liberals". She got quite a lot of support. But that's social media, let's see if parts of the party organization will join in. 

VU activists symbolically buried the mother party in a flower covered coffin in front of parliament and declared "Denmark's Liberal party" (the second part of the party name) for dead to the tune of Chopin's Marche Funèbre. 

Otherwise a deputy mayor in Northern Jutland leaving, the chairman of the party's Randers (6th city) chapter declaring the decision for a disaster and saying one of the city's voter associations had collapsed due to mass exodus of members, a dozen mayors telling the press how much they regretted the decision and - notably - the highly respected former Chairman of the Folketing Christian Mejdahl (82) - who is viewed as the embodiment of the party's rural Jutlandic roots and is usually very toned down and careful - being quite harsh and frank in his criticism. A couple of board members urged Ellemann-Jensen to step down before the main board meeting yesterday evening, but no one important. And someone leaked a recording of the meeting to tabloid BT, which has never happened for the Liberals before. 

It's nothing that'll immediately undermine Ellemann-Jensen's position, but it's clear that a lot of members are quite angry, especially in their Jutlandic heartland, and that not a lot will have to go wrong before a rebellion may be triggered, and it'll be interesting to see how many members they lose, it's reportedly a substantial number. 

[nelson]

The main points of the government agreement (Google translate of an article in online media Altinget with light editing, but hope it is readable) with a few comments in parenthesis. Generally a bit less right leaning than I'd have expected. A lot of the trickier issues have been postponed to later (incl. whether the regions should be abolished as part of a healthcare reform). 

Welfare

- The government will set aside three billion DKK for a pay rise in the public sector.
- A structural commission must be set up to look at a new organization of the healthcare system. The goal is to reduce inequality and strengthen coherence in the healthcare system.
- Free the municipalities from state process requirements.
- Give the individual manager of institutions greater autonomy.
- Set up a committee to shed light on options for future welfare institutions, including models where welfare institutions are self-governing units.
- The (much maligned) job centres are to be closed down. 

Health and the elderly

- The government will put forward a new Elderly Act which:
a) Expands free choice so that private suppliers have more opportunities to deliver
elderly care.
b) Gives older people more freedom to live as they want.
c) Takes a stand against bureaucracy and control.

- The Arne-pension and the senior pension will be merged into one new pension scheme, which has both a rights-based and a visitation-based track.
- Abolish the senior job scheme.
- The old-age check will be increased by DKK 4,700 annually.
- The government will draw up a new 10-year psychiatric plan.

Economy and business

- By 2030, structural employment must have increased by 45,000 full-time employees (a statistical unit). The new government needs to show concrete paths to  the last 13,500 full-time employees.
- The government will introduce a new work obligation for citizens in the cash benefit system with integration needs to get more non-Western immigrants employed.
- Abolition of a public holiday (the Great Prayer Day) to increase the labour supply.
- The agreement on strengthened international recruitment will be made permanent. It must facilitate access to foreign labour as long as unemployment is low.
- A new business support system must be established. It must contain a new prioritization in business support, which will contribute to increasing structural employment by an additional 4,000 full-time employees.
- The government will also take the initiative to establish a permanent tripartite institution to promote cooperation between the government and the parties on the labour market (employers and trade unions).

Taxation

- The government plans to implement a major tax reform, where taxes and duties will be reduced overall.
- The government will spend four billion DKK to increase the employment deduction. 
- The top tax is being restructured in a way that overall reduces the state's income by DKK 700 million.
- A new millionaire tax is being introduced on incomes over DKK 2.5 million per year. For this group, the top tax rate must be five percentage points higher than the current top tax rate.
- The top tax limit is raised from DKK 600,000 to DKK 750,000 per year. 
- For the group that earns between 750,000 and 2.5 million per year, the top tax rate will be halved, so that it will be 7.5 percent in the future.
- The government will introduce a tax freeze. This means that if the government makes a decision to raise taxes or duties, other taxes or duties must be correspondingly reduced, so that overall no more taxes or duties are collected. Tobacco and nicotine taxes are exempt from this principle.
- The planned tax increase on current taxation of companies' stock profits is canceled.

Climate

- Denmark must be climate neutral in 2045. In 2050, Denmark must have achieved a 110 percent reduction compared to 1990.
- A CO2 tax on agriculture will be introduced. The government will return the proceeds from this tax directly to the agricultural sector, so that the industry's transformation is supported. The new government will present a concrete proposal for such a tax when the expert group for a Green Tax Reform has presented their results.
- A new marine area management plan with 10 percent strictly protected and 20 percent protected sea territory.
- A forest plan with a goal of establishing 250,000 hectares of new forest in Denmark.
- A new flight tax with an average fee of DKK 100.
- To support the implementation of the climate measures, the government will set up a national energy crisis staff (NEKST) following the same model as the national operational staff (NOST).

Education

- Upwards of half of all Master's programs must be concluded in one year (rather than two as now). The new, shorter master's programs must have a clearer labour market focus and their quality must be raised.
- In higher education programs, it will henceforth only be possible to receive state education benefits (SU) for the standard study time, while the ability of getting finishing loans must be expanded.
- The agreement on high school student distribution from June 2021 is rolled back. The high school students must instead be distributed according to transport time, and not according to their parents income level. 
- More young people must choose a vocational school rather than the general upper secondary school (gymnasium). For this reason, the government wants to significantly strengthen vocational training.
- At the same time, the government will make it easier for a skilled person to take a higher education without requiring upper secondary education.
- A new admissions system must be introduced for higher education with better access via the second quota.
- An expert committee is set up to contribute knowledge about barriers for training of adults throughout their working life.
- The number of international students must be increased in areas where Danish companies need highly skilled labour.
- The government will call for a tripartite agreement on the nearly 45,000 young people who are currently neither in education nor working.

Defense

- The phasing in of the permanent increase in defense spending following the national compromise is brought forward by three years. As early as 2030, Denmark must now spend two percent of GDP on defense and security.
- The government will set up a commission to investigate the decision to suspend senior employees in the Military Intelligence Service. The commission must investigate whether unfair considerations were taken into account during the suspension (kicking the can down the road on a potential abuse of power scandal).

[nelson]

LLR became Minister of Foreign Affairs and Ellemann-Jensen Minister of Defence (plus Deputy PM). The SocDems keep the Ministry of Finance while the Liberals get Economy. It was expected that the Liberals would insist on getting Finance in order to create some balance in the government and not appear weak. This is very much the usual "junior partner" model. 

[nelson]

Apart from the Liberals accepting the junior partner model what springs to mind is that: 

- Løkke Rasmussen picking Foreign Affairs rather than Health indicates he's prioritizing cultivating and maintaining his network, hoping for an international job or, if that fails, becoming EU Commissioner in two years time when the post becomes available, rather than trying establish his new party as a permanent feature in Danish politics. Especially since the only other Moderate MP with parliamentary experience (also an ex-Lib) has become Minister of Culture which will leave their parliamentary group rudderless. 
- Frederiksen has seized the opportunity to ruthlessly purge her ministerial team of anyone with even a whiff of scandal or public ridicule attached to their name. 
- There are no new SocDem ministers. 
- There are unusually few women in the new cabinet, which will be criticized. It's something Frederiksen will probably have to gradually "fix" throughout the term. 

[jamie]

Dec 15, 2022 9:56:11 GMT nelson said:

Apart from the Liberals accepting the junior partner model what springs to mind is that: 

- Frederiksen has seized the opportunity to ruthlessly purge her ministerial team of anyone with even a whiff of scandal or public ridicule attached to their name. 
- There are no new SocDem ministers. 
- There are unusually few women in the new cabinet, which will be criticized. It's something Frederiksen will probably have to gradually "fix" throughout the term. 

There’s also a bit of interesting favouritism in the promotion/demotion department. Mattias Tesfaye, after less than a year at Justice, is demoted to Education (a bit of an odd fit for someone whose politics are anti-immigration Workerism). Meanwhile, Peter Hummelgaard is promoted to Justice from Employment, and Ane Halsboe-Jorgensen is the only junior S minister to survive after being promoted to Employment. Magnus Heunicke and Dan Jorgensen have also been demoted, but that was inevitable after the loss of cabinet posts. 

[ilerda]

Is there a feeling amongst politics watchers that this represents the end of the bloc system, or just a temporary hiatus the duration of which will depend on if it works out for the parties involved?

[The Bishop]

My impression is rather the latter, at least for now.

In particular the SocDems may be thinking some of the left parties need to grow up a bit and a spell in opposition could help in that regard.

[nelson]

Dec 15, 2022 12:33:29 GMT ilerda said:

Is there a feeling amongst politics watchers that this represents the end of the bloc system, or just a temporary hiatus the duration of which will depend on if it works out for the parties involved?

Temporary hiatus, but one that may last for nearly a full term. The Liberals would be overtaken by other parties on the fragmented centre-right and lose their role as the main centre-right party if they prolonged it for another term (in another Nordic country, Iceland, the Left Greens are currently being reduced to minor party status after prolonging their broad coalition with a bigger and stronger party from the opposite side despite having the PM post, and the Danish Liberals don't even have that). 

To quote Liberal commentator Jarl Cordua: "there's an hour glass hidden somewhere on Christiansborg that started running out from the moment Frederiksen met the Queen and all the involved parties are well aware of that, and at some point they'll start thinking of how to get out of the government on as advantageous terms as possible for their party, that's when the real difficulties start for the Liberals".  

[jamie]

Dec 15, 2022 12:42:15 GMT The Bishop said:

My impression is rather the latter, at least for now.

In particular the SocDems may be thinking some of the left parties need to grow up a bit and a spell in opposition could help in that regard.

What do you think the left parties should have done differently? SF were happy to back the Social Democrats on pretty much everything, EL and The Alternative wanted a Red government led by Frederiksen (which was a more mature attitude for the latter than their lonely ‘we are the Green Bloc’ stance in 2019), it’s only government over the middle enthusiasts RV who look a bit stupid not being a support party for a government they wanted and will largely support. The Red Bloc majority was there if Frederiksen wanted to use it, she ultimately did not. 

[nelson]

Dec 15, 2022 11:32:53 GMT jamie said:

Dec 15, 2022 9:56:11 GMT nelson said:

Apart from the Liberals accepting the junior partner model what springs to mind is that: 

- Frederiksen has seized the opportunity to ruthlessly purge her ministerial team of anyone with even a whiff of scandal or public ridicule attached to their name. 
- There are no new SocDem ministers. 
- There are unusually few women in the new cabinet, which will be criticized. It's something Frederiksen will probably have to gradually "fix" throughout the term. 

There’s also a bit of interesting favouritism in the promotion/demotion department. Mattias Tesfaye, after less than a year at Justice, is demoted to Education (a bit of an odd fit for someone whose politics are anti-immigration Workerism). Meanwhile, Peter Hummelgaard is promoted to Justice from Employment, and Ane Halsboe-Jorgensen is the only junior S minister to survive after being promoted to Employment. Magnus Heunicke and Dan Jorgensen have also been demoted, but that was inevitable after the loss of cabinet posts. 

Mattias Tesfaye is one of the few SocDem MPs that has a vocational background (he's a bricklayer) and he has strong ties to the trade unions and in a government with a clear ambition of getting more young people to become skilled workers, technicians and craftsmen rather than going to university and upgrading both the status and quality of vocational training there's a strong signal value in giving the post to him, he's also not particularly interested in judicial policy and crime prevention so he was more of a placeholder on that post, I doubt he'd personally consider it as a demotion. Education is traditionally a relatively big job in a Danish government compared to most countries (it's one of the "old ministries" dating back to 1849 and e.g. several SocLib party leaders have held it and Liberal party ideologue Bertel Haarder held it for a decade in the 80s and early 90s), even if it has been demoted a bit after losing the universities.  

I'm not sure what you mean by "junior" ministers since that's formally not a thing in Denmark, and apart from the three big ones (State, Finance and Foreign Affairs) there isn't that much of an informal hierarchy even though Justice is traditionally considered fairly prestigious and Economy is ofc important as a counterweight to Finance. But e.g. Social Affairs has a very big budget and Interior and Education have prestige as old ministries and there'd be no consensus about which ones of those are most "senior".   

Kaare Dybvad is a year younger than her and he got a high priority job, Hummelgaard is same age as her and Tesfaye is only two years older so her generation is well represented (arguably overrepresented). 


EDIT 1: There is a ranking in the Council of State, but that's decided by each government nowadays usually using the following criteria: party chairman after party size, ministers of finance and foreign affairs (if the portfolio is not held by a party leader), members of the government's coordination committee, seniority as minister, seniority as MP, seniority as member of publicly elected bodies, seniority as public servant, personal age. And the ranking in the Council of State doesn't transfer to non-royal family related situations. 

EDIT 2: Apart from symbolism Frederiksen also likes to use Tesfaye as a "fixer" and he's often placed on posts that's perceived as difficult.