nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 1, 2022 21:58:59 GMT
86, 73, 16 with 80% counted. Still a slim chance for the Red bloc.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 1, 2022 22:09:43 GMT
86, 73, 16 with 80% counted. Still a slim chance for the Red bloc. 87, 72, 16 with 85% counted. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 1, 2022 22:18:32 GMT
86, 73, 16 with 80% counted. Still a slim chance for the Red bloc. 87, 72, 16 with 85% counted. Leaving Aaja Chemnitz Larsen from IA with the decisive seat. Our next Minister of Foreign Affairs? |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 1, 2022 22:23:37 GMT
Most places are fully counted now with most remaining having only a small minority of their vote left. The places left with most/all to count are Herlev (left leaning suburb of Copenhagen), Frederiksberg (comfortably left leaning enclave within Copenhagen), and quite a lot of Copenhagen itself, including all of Østerbro.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 1, 2022 22:39:25 GMT
The 87th seat is still there with 93% counted, I don't think it's going to change now given what's left. Crazy result with all "red" North Atlantic seats needed. Frederiksen will no doubt negotiate with Lars Løkke Rasmussen first, but from a position of strength. If that fails we may be looking at a SocDem, SPP, Red Green, SocLib The Alternative, IA, Siumut, Equality Party coalition with Aajaa Chemnitz Larsen (IA) as Foreign Minister, Sjúrður Skaale (EP) as Minister of Defence and Aki-Matilda Høegh-Dam (Siumut) as Minister of Fashion, Beautification and Social Media.  |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 1, 2022 22:42:24 GMT
nelson could Frederiksen really form a government with a 1 seat majority including the North Atlantic parties after spending the election campaigning talking about the need for a stable government? Obviously it may prove politically easier (in terms of policies and actually wanting her as PM) but it would be precarious and require The Moderates to be hardline in government negotiations.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 1, 2022 23:21:00 GMT
As mentioned earlier Aajaa Chemnitz Larsen (IA) has previously said she prefers a government with Lars Løkke Rasmussen and the Moderates in it, but since Mette Frederiksen is the incumbent she can stay on as PM unless she has a majority against her, so Frederiksen can survive a 89-89 tie on a MoNC. IA would have to actively support a motion of no confidence not just abstain, and toppling a Danish government would be completely outside of her party's view of their own purpose and political role.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 1, 2022 23:29:41 GMT
With 99.6% done DR and others have the Red Bloc at just 86 (+3 abroad = 89/179).
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Post by matureleft on Nov 1, 2022 23:40:44 GMT
Best Social Democrat result since 2001?
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 1, 2022 23:55:22 GMT
Photo finish as the final reporting district gets the projection up from 86 to 87 Red seats, which with the 3 North Atlantic seats de facto means that Mette Frederiksen will be the next prime minister under any possible configuration.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 1, 2022 23:57:19 GMT
Photo finish as the final reporting district gets the projection up from 86 to 87 Red seats, which with the 3 North Atlantic seats de facto means that Mette Frederiksen will be the next prime minister under any possible configuration. Could the Postal Votes change anything? Or are they already counted? |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 2, 2022 0:42:37 GMT
First district to report personal votes is Ikast. In a sign of how bad the campaign went for him, Pape lost 1/3 of his personal vote despite the Conservative vote actually increasing slightly here.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 2, 2022 7:48:53 GMT
Frederiksen has announced she'll step down (due to the narrow majority) and will tender her resignation to the Queen at 11 am CET. But a majority has said they'll choose her as so-called "royal investigator", which means she (on behalf of the Queen) will be the leader of the government negotiations and will talk with the parties and try to find a basis for a new government (formally not necessarily led by herself, but she'll of course try to use the position to remain as PM). Slightly surprising she gave up the incumbency advantage that early, but Lars Løkke Rasmussen has been very insistent that he'll not join the current government (which he could have), but wants a new government.
Formally Frederiksen becomes royal investigator after a so-called "Queen round" where the party leaders visit the Queen and inform her of their position and preferences.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 2, 2022 8:54:43 GMT
Gotta love the peculiarities of the Danish electoral system. The Social Democrats are up 2.1% in Zealand and they’ve lost a seat, while in Copenhagen they’re up only 1.8% but have gained a seat.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 2, 2022 12:25:24 GMT
Personal votes are starting to pour in now. In North Jutland, Mette Frederiksen has cannibalised her party’s personal votes, so some ministers are probably going to be re-elected with pretty derisory personal votes. As would be expected in a personalist outfit, Inger Støjberg looks to have got the vast majority of her parties voters to vote for her personally. Alex Vanopslagh of the Liberal Alliance had a great campaign and has now topped the personal votes poll in all 4 districts of otherwise Red Aarhus.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 2, 2022 13:01:43 GMT
Looks like one of my "bold" predictions will come true. Alex Vanopslagh (LA) got 19,277 personal votes in Århus, by far the biggest city in his constituency, while Liberal leader Jakob Ellemann-Jensen only got 10,544. With that kind of margin in Århus it should be a given Vanopslagh beats Ellemann-Jensen. Minister of Finance Nicolai Wammen (SocDem), who is a former mayor of Århus, also beat Ellemann-Jensen with 11,256
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 2, 2022 13:14:58 GMT
Mette is one hell of an operator.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 2, 2022 13:44:44 GMT
The Alternative has (conveniently) changed their mind and will no longer demand a legal review of Frederiksen's role in the Mink scandal conducted by an external law firm which could potentially be used to charge her before a Realm Court, which means there's no majority for it. Pretty hypocritical of them since they likely attracted some principled Red Green and SPP supporters by supporting it during the campaign.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 2, 2022 14:55:21 GMT
Sofie Carsten Nielsen has stepped down as leader of the SocLibs (Radikale). First party leader to go, probably not the last.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 2, 2022 14:59:46 GMT
Inger Støjberg has advised the Queen to appoint her as royal investigator citing the Libs and Cons "flirting" with the SocLibs and trying to establish a centrist coalition as her reason.
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