Danish Parliamentary Election 2022

[nelson]

I was asked on another forum whether I had any bold predictions. Given that half the voters say they intend to vote for a different party than last time and nearly a quarter are still undecided - which are very high numbers for Denmark - we're in unchartered territory and there is a high probability the polls will be off by a lot, so hard to make predictions. 

In both the previous parliamentary and local elections the Liberals overperformed the polls since so many voters from a rural or small town background are "born into the party" and tend to pick it as their default option in the end when they actually stand in the ballot box, but this time with two parties led by former Liberal bigwigs that's far from certain. A lot will depend on whether the Libs get their usual "default vote" or not and I don't really have a feeling of that.

But just for fun:

Bold predictions

a) Turnout was 84.1% last time, if it falls below 80% the Red bloc (incl. The Alternative) will win a majority (the fragmentation and disappointing polls mean there are lots of confused and demoralized voters on the right who may end up not voting at all).

b) I expect the Moderates to either overperform or underperform their polls, and would be surprised if they get close (as within +/- 1.5 point) to the average of the final polls from each non-YouGov pollster. Either a lot of people return to their original parties and he'll flop or LLR gets momentum from the debate and "doubters" picking him as a safe pair of hands and pass 10%.

c) Thanks to his enthusiastic young supporters LA's Alex Vanopslagh beats Jacob Ellemann-Jensen and gets the highest personal vote among the Blue bloc party leaders.


Wouldn't be surprised if

Based on Støjberg's final debate performance I could see DD getting back to around 10% of the vote. 


Other predictions

- Both DPP and The Alternative will pass the threshold, DPP with a bigger margin that the Alternative. 

- The Conservatives will get less than the 6.6% they got last time.

- The leader of the SocLibs (Radikale) Sofie Carsten Nielsen will get reelected after all. 

[nelson]

Nov 1, 2022 12:33:24 GMT nelson said:

Looks like turnout will be lower than last time, which is probably good news for the Red bloc given the Blue bloc lean of the undecided. 

Doesn't seem to be the case anymore when adjusted for this being a work day, might even get a little higher. 

[Georg Ebner]

Nov 1, 2022 7:47:03 GMT nelson said:

Nov 1, 2022 3:49:20 GMT Georg Ebner said:

I included the 3 green sects into the Red Bloc. Only Moderates and Others (and Pedersen in 2019, not shown here) are in neither bloc.

It doesn't change much since they're so small, but as mentioned before it's not correct and it does make the Red Bloc slightly too big. Especially regarding the Free Greens which would never support a SocDem government, but is purely a testimonial party, the same would apply for the Vegans esp. when controlled by their fundi wing.

The Alternative has de facto joined the Red Bloc during the campaign and you could argue they've been Red Bloc-ish since February 2020 because Josefine Fock who got elected leader back then ruled out not supporting any PM (and they only really have one choice since their membership is too leftist to agree to backing a Liberal). Before the moderate wing won control of the party in 2020 it was far from given they'd support a SocDem in the end. They could very well have gone the testimonial party route. 

The Red Bloc refers to parties that would support a "red" (SocDem) PM, not just ideologically leftist or "progressive" getuigenispartijen.

It's about the election, thus not about coalition-majorities somewhen later, but the pool of potential voters.

[jamie]

Just for fun, here’s my semi-educated prediction:

SD - 25.5%
V - 14.6%
SF - 8.8%
M - 8.2%
DD - 7.9%
LA - 7.2%
KF - 6.1%
EL - 5.9%
RV - 4.4%
NB - 4.3%
DF - 2.9%
Alt - 2.8%
FG - 0.6%
KD - 0.6%

[nelson]

Nov 1, 2022 16:47:58 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Nov 1, 2022 7:47:03 GMT nelson said:

It doesn't change much since they're so small, but as mentioned before it's not correct and it does make the Red Bloc slightly too big. Especially regarding the Free Greens which would never support a SocDem government, but is purely a testimonial party, the same would apply for the Vegans esp. when controlled by their fundi wing.

The Alternative has de facto joined the Red Bloc during the campaign and you could argue they've been Red Bloc-ish since February 2020 because Josefine Fock who got elected leader back then ruled out not supporting any PM (and they only really have one choice since their membership is too leftist to agree to backing a Liberal). Before the moderate wing won control of the party in 2020 it was far from given they'd support a SocDem in the end. They could very well have gone the testimonial party route. 

The Red Bloc refers to parties that would support a "red" (SocDem) PM, not just ideologically leftist or "progressive" getuigenispartijen.

It's about the election, thus not about coalition-majorities somewhen later, but the pool of potential voters.

But the blocs are defined by having a preferred candidate for PM (among the realistic contenders). That's the whole point of the division into "blocs". They are not just synonyms for "left" and "right". If you're talking about voter tendencies you should use left/centre-left and right/centre-right or something similar. 

[nelson]

DR exit poll


SocDems 23,1 
Liberals 13.5
SPP 9.6
Moderates 9.3
LA 9.0
DD 6.9
Red Greens 6.2
Conservatives 5.5
SocLibs 4.7
The Alternative 3.9
New Right 3.8
DPP 2.5
Free Greens 1.3
ChristDems 0.4

[nelson]

Red Bloc 85
Blue Bloc 73
Moderates 17

88 seats for the Red Bloc with three North Atlantic seats (if they can persuade IA), two seats short. 

Very good for LA and The Alternative and better than expected for the SocLibs.

[jamie]

LOL if the Free Greens prevent a Red majority and force some sort of government across the middle (or especially a Blue + Moderates majority).

[Georg Ebner]

Both exitPolls see the Red Bloc narrowly below majority.
DR:

Megaphon for TV2:

[nelson]

Nov 1, 2022 19:04:54 GMT nelson said:

Red Bloc 85
Blue Bloc 73
Moderates 17

88 seats for the Red Bloc with three North Atlantic seats (if they can persuade IA), two seats short. 

Very good for LA and The Alternative and better than expected for the SocLibs.

TV2's exit poll has 

Red Bloc 86
Blue Bloc 72
Moderates 17

So only one seat short with the North Atlantic seats. 

[jamie]

The rando islands look a lot different to the exit poll with SD, DD and M seeming to be getting a surprisingly big increase in votes. 99% chance they’re not representative of course.

[jamie]

Going into tonight I wasn’t sure if DD would top the poll anywhere. Well, they’ve done it in Aarø in South Jutland (118 voters). They may repeat this feat in a few other small communities by the looks of the very early results.

[nelson]

The TV2 exit poll looks more credible to me. SocDems higher and The Alternative, LA and SocLibs slightly lower and Free Greens a lot lower. The combined right wing populist vote is also a bit closer to the 15% I'd have expected. Looks more balanced and less progressive/urban/middle class-y.

SocDems 25.1
SPP 9.0
Red Greens 6.2
SocLibs 4.4
The Alternative 3.5
Free Greens 0.4

Moderates 9.3

Liberals 13.8
LA 8.0
Conservatives 5.7
ChristDems 0.7

Denmark Democrats 7.0
DPP 2.9
New Right 3.8

[jamie]

Tønder in South Jutland is the first fully counted district:
SD 26.3% (+1.8%)
RV 1.3% (-2.3%)
KF 4.6% (+0.2%)
NB 7.9% (+3.4%)
SF 5.0% (-0.4%)
LA 5.6% (+3.9%)
KD 0.9% (-2.1%)
M 12.6% (new)
DF 3.0% (-10.1%)
FG 0.1% (new)
V 15.3% (-17.8%)
DD 14.9% (new)
EL 1.6% (-1.4%)
Alt 0.8% (-0.3%)

[jamie]

White working class/ghetto suburb of Ishoj is finished counting. Free Greens on 7.6%, with RV losing 8.9% to get only 3.8% of the vote. The poorly integrated immigrant vote has clearly shifted here, but doesn’t look enough for FG to get a constituency seat given their weaker support elsewhere. 

[nelson]

Nov 1, 2022 20:47:29 GMT jamie said:

White working class/ghetto suburb of Ishoj is finished counting. Free Greens on 7.6%, with RV losing 8.9% to get only 3.8% of the vote. The poorly integrated immigrant vote has clearly shifted here, but doesn’t look enough for FG to get a constituency seat given their weaker support elsewhere. 

Ishøj includes some quite nice villas on the waterfront and close by (where e.g. former PM Helle Thorning-Schmidt grew up) and in the old village inhabited by mostly Danish middle class families, it's more diverse than it's often given credit for and the SocLib (Radikale) vote is not purely made up of ethnic minorities (probably only around 50% so). 

[nelson]

With half the votes counted the TV2 prognosis, which I trust the most, has 85 to Red bloc, 75 to Blue bloc and 15 to the Moderates. 

[jamie]

Had a look at a few of the ‘ghettos’ where RV did incredibly well in 2019. Their vote has collapsed with much of it going to the FG. EL is also doing rather poorly in these places.

[jamie]

North Jutland looked like it could be pretty bad for the Social Democrats when the earliest results came in, but it looks more like a wash now. Only Thisted looks particularly bad (-2%) while Aalborg East aka Frederiksen’s district has them up 3%.

[nelson]

85 to the Red bloc, 74 to Blue bloc and 16 to the Moderates with 76% counted.