jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 30, 2022 12:17:03 GMT
Had a bit of a play around with the Epinion data. I’ve looked at the largest net voter movements from an average of the last 3 polls.
Inter-Red:
0.8% - RV to SD
0.6% - RV to SF
Inter-Blue:
3.4% - DF to DD
3% - V to DD
2.4% - V to LA
1.2% - DF to NB
1% - V to KF
0.9% - SK to NB
0.9% - KF to LA
To The Moderates:
4.1% - V to M
1.4% - RV to M
1.1% - SD to M
0.8% - KF to M
Cross-Bloc:
0.8% - DF to SD
0.7% - SD to DD
In summary, the Red Bloc is seeing little movement within that bloc with the Radikale Venstre losses being the relative largest. In the Blue Bloc, the Danish People’s Party are haemorrhaging votes to the Denmark Democrats, with Venstre losing a lot of votes to both the former and to the Liberal Alliance. The Moderates are picking up votes 2:1 from the mainstream right. There’s little movement between Red and Blue parties, with only movement around the Social Democrats of any significance and cancelling itself out anyways. Interestingly, if you reallocate The Moderate voters back to their former parties, you end up with a 2% above threshold Red Bloc lead.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 30, 2022 14:11:57 GMT
One of the Blue Bloc problem during the campaign has been that their party leaders aren't viewed as likable or credible as the Red Bloc leaders. Only Liberal Alliance's Alex Vanopslagh is in the Top 5 on both whose parameters in the last Megafon poll - with the respondents allowed to pick up to three options. Notable that Pape is perceived as significantly more likable than credible after all the bad press. Sofie Carsten Nielsen's numbers are far below what a SocLib leader would normally score, her favourability is only marginally above the party's own share of the voters - which is unusual for a centrist party.
Most likable
Pia Olsen Dyhr (SPP) 40
Mette Frederiksen (SocDem) 29
Alex Vanopslagh (LA) 28
Mai Villadsen (Red Greens) 26
Lars Løkke Rasmussen (Moderates) 23
Søren Pape Poulsen (Cons) 23
Jacob Ellemann-Jensen (Libs) 22
Inger Støjberg (DD) 19
Franciska Rosenkilde (The Alternative) 12
Pernille Vermund (New Right) 9
Morten Messerschmidt (DPP) 8
Marianne Karlsmose (ChristDems) 6
Sofie Carsten Nielsen (SocLibs) 5
Sikandar Siddique (Free Greens) 3
Most credible
Pia Olsen Dyhr (SPP) 35
Mette Frederiksen (SocDem) 34
Alex Vanopslagh (LA) 32
Jacob Ellemann-Jensen (Libs) 28
Lars Løkke Rasmussen (Moderates) 27
Mai Villadsen (Red Greens) 21
Inger Støjberg (DD) 20
Søren Pape Poulsen (Cons) 16
Pernille Vermund (New Right) 11
Franciska Rosenkilde (The Alternative) 9
Morten Messerschmidt (DPP) 8
Sofie Carsten Nielsen (SocLibs) 5
Marianne Karlsmose (ChristDems) 4
Sikandar Siddique (Free Greens) 1
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Post by matureleft on Oct 30, 2022 14:18:59 GMT
One of the Blue Bloc problem during the campaign has been that their party leaders aren't viewed as likable or credible as the Red Bloc leaders. Only Liberal Alliance's Alex Vanopslagh is in the Top 5 on both whose parameters in the last Megafon poll - with the respondents allowed to pick up to three options. Notable that Pape is perceived as significantly more likable than credible after all the bad press. Sofie Carsten Nielsen's numbers are far below what a SocLib leader would normally score, her favourability is only marginally above the party's own share of the voters - which is unusual for a centrist party. Most likable Pia Olsen Dyhr (SPP) 40 Mette Frederiksen (SocDem) 29 Alex Vanopslagh (LA) 28 Mai Villadsen (Red Greens) 26 Lars Løkke Rasmussen (Moderates) 23 Søren Pape Poulsen (Cons) 23 Jacob Ellemann-Jensen (Libs) 22 Inger Støjberg (DD) 19 Franciska Rosenkilde (The Alternative) 12 Pernille Vermund (New Right) 9 Morten Messerschmidt (DPP) 8 Marianne Karlsmose (ChristDems) 6 Sofie Carsten Nielsen (SocLibs) 5 Sikandar Siddique (Free Greens) 3 Most credible Pia Olsen Dyhr (SPP) 35 Mette Frederiksen (SocDem) 34 Alex Vanopslagh (LA) 32 Jacob Ellemann-Jensen (Libs) 28 Lars Løkke Rasmussen (Moderates) 27 Mai Villadsen (Red Greens) 21 Inger Støjberg (DD) 20 Søren Pape Poulsen (Cons) 16 Pernille Vermund (New Right) 11 Franciska Rosenkilde (The Alternative) 9 Morten Messerschmidt (DPP) 8 Sofie Carsten Nielsen (SocLibs) 5 Marianne Karlsmose (ChristDems) 4 Sikandar Siddique (Free Greens) 1 What makes the SPP leader so likable and credible? |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 30, 2022 15:10:03 GMT
What makes the SPP leader so likable and credible? She effortlessly combines calm & rational with warm & emphatic and has lots of experience (and it shows). Her critics say she has too much of a "sensible housewife" vibe, but in a time of crisis common sense and groundedness aren't the worst things to be associated with. She has a Copenhagen working class background (dad joiner and railway worker, mum cleaning lady) growing up on a relatively tough housing estate alone with a mentally ill and alcoholised father which she basically cared for at a very early age, so she can't be tied to the do-gooder or champagne socialist stereotypes. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 31, 2022 12:22:37 GMT
The last Voxmeter poll wasn't all that interesting (though it confirmed that the SocLibs have gotten out of the 3.5 hole they seemed to be in five days ago and are now a bt above 4% (which if true means their leader will be reelected). It also had DPP above 3%, but it's by now old news they'll make it. During the last tv-debate on public broadcaster DR Extinction Rebellion activists among the audience tried to heckle the panel and raised banner (ironically while the Free Greens' leader Sikandar Siddique was speaking, probably the party that agrees the most with them). Søren Pape Poulsen left the stage and scolded them for being anti-democratic (Alex Vanopslagh also did so, but from the stage). Social media applauded him for it and I suppose it might give him a few sympathy votes. Lars Løkke Rasmussen said he was "open" to legalizing recreational cannabis (the Moderates are already pro-decriminalizing possession of hard drugs and pro-medical cannabis), not sure if he can actually gain the stoner vote (The Alternative already support free weed and they're closer to the stoners), but if there is a centrist stoner vore who knows..  (I've never seen any polling of how stoners vote and to what extent they bother voting). Frederiksen came out in favour of structural changes on healthcare, which is one of LLR's main demands, so an open invitation. Ellemann-Jensen urged Løkke to "come home" to the Blue Bloc and join a centre-right government, but he refused and repeated his line about necessary reforms having to come from the center and the need for a broad government. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 31, 2022 15:28:44 GMT
Link to the Faroese election results. So far only five polling stations with 233 votes (turnout 80.9%) have been counted, all from small islands with very few voters where the polls close early. Atkvøður = votes Valrætt = voters (litt. right to vote) Vallutøka = turnout Blankar = blank Ógild = invalid Fólkaflokkurin = People's Party Sambandsflokkurin = Union Party Javnaðarflokkurin = SocDems (litt. Equality Party) Tjóðveldi = Republic Framsókn = Progress Miðflokkurin = Centre Party
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 31, 2022 16:32:47 GMT
Given the big polling leads to the SocDems and Union Party and that incumbent Sjurdur Skaale from the SocDems is guaranteed to get his party's seat the only potentially interesting element is whether the Union Party's lead candidate, their youth org chairman Anna Falkenberg, a pol science graduate student still in her mid-20s, win the seat or the voters prefer someone more experienced. Falkenberg has had various positions in Nordic and European Liberal youth orgs and is a political consultant for the party and they clearly consider her a big talent, but the Faroe Islands is a conservative society and no major party has ever run a lead candidate that young. Bárður á Steig Nielsen is the Premier (Lawman) and only on the list to attract votes, if he were to win the seat he would decline and it would pass on to the next in line. Kaj Leo Holm Johannesen (58) is a former Premier and party leader and he'd presumably be Falkenberg's main competitor.
The rules are simple: The two biggest parties win a seat each, and the candidate on each of the winning lists with the most personal votes get the party's seat. These rules are similar in Greenland btw.
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iain
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Post by iain on Oct 31, 2022 16:43:30 GMT
The rules are simple: The two biggest parties win a seat each, and the candidate on each of the winning lists with the most personal votes get the party's seat. These rules are similar in Greenland btw. Is it not permitted for one party to win both seats? |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 31, 2022 16:51:04 GMT
The rules are simple: The two biggest parties win a seat each, and the candidate on each of the winning lists with the most personal votes get the party's seat. These rules are similar in Greenland btw. Is it not permitted for one party to win both seats? Of course, if they get more than twice as many votes as the runner-up, but that's an entirely hypothetical situation in the Faroese party system. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 31, 2022 18:54:15 GMT
A record 24% of respondents are still undecided in the final Gallup poll from today, that's far higher than usual (about twice as high IIRC) and the final tv-debate tonight (on TV2, the biggest channel) may actually be decisive in such a scenario. The poll has the Red Bloc at 49.1% (incl. the green parties), so fairly close to a majority.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 31, 2022 21:05:35 GMT
Given the big polling leads to the SocDems and Union Party and that incumbent Sjurdur Skaale from the SocDems is guaranteed to get his party's seat the only potentially interesting element is whether the Union Party's lead candidate, their youth org chairman Anna Falkenberg, a pol science graduate student still in her mid-20s, win the seat or the voters prefer someone more experienced. Falkenberg has had various positions in Nordic and European Liberal youth orgs and is a political consultant for the party and they clearly consider her a big talent, but the Faroe Islands is a conservative society and no major party has ever run a lead candidate that young. Bárður á Steig Nielsen is the Premier (Lawman) and only on the list to attract votes, if he were to win the seat he would decline and it would pass on to the next in line. Kaj Leo Holm Johannesen (58) is a former Premier and party leader and he'd presumably be Falkenberg's main competitor. With 15.6% counted (all rural) Falkenberg has three times as many votes as her nearest competitor the party's former deputy leader Johan Dahl (63), so it's going to be close. Kaj Leo Holm Johannesen is only fourth, but may move to second once the two towns (esp. the capital Tórshavn) come in. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 31, 2022 21:29:39 GMT
With 42.0% counted (51 of 57 polling stations) it is:
Union 34.1
SocDems 28.0
Republic 15.7
People's 15.3
Centre 4.7
Progress 2.3
Republic will increase once the three urban polling stations report, but their 2019 election was poor, so repeating that won't be a success. People's decline is partly due to Centre running as 85-90% of Centre voters will likely have voted People's (the second most SoCon party, on the right and separatist).
Union Party Top 3:
Anna Falkenberg 1345
Johan Dahl 313
Kaj Leo Holm Johannesen 284
A landslide win for the young hope.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 31, 2022 22:01:44 GMT
It has been stuck on 50.1% counted (54 of 57 polling stations) for a while now, so might as well do an update. The result now includes the Tórshavn suburb Argir so no longer purely rural, what's missing is the towns of Tórshavn and Klaksvík and the big settlement Runavík on Eysturoy (a Union Party stronghold).
Union 33.6
SocDems 28.0
Republic 16.2
People's 15.1
Centre 4.3
Progress 2.8
Union Party Top 3:
Anna Falkenberg 1632
Johan Dahl 363
Kaj Leo Holm Johannesen 313
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 31, 2022 22:44:31 GMT
Final result:
Union 30.2 (+1.5)
SocDems 28.2 (+2.3)
Republic 18.1 (-0.7)
People's 15.5 (-8.6)
Centre 4.5 (new)
Progress 3.4 (+1.0)
Union Party Top 5:
Anna Falkenberg 2973
Johan Dahl 776
Magnus Rasmussen 642
Kaj Leo Holm Johannesen 603
Bárður á Steig Nielsen 442
Magnus Rasmussen (59) is Minister of Business and Environmental Protection and the ex-Mayor of Runavík, on the list because he's popular up north but would have declined his seat if elected. This looks rather embarrassing for Kaj Leo Holm Johannesen, he is after all a former Premier and party leader.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 31, 2022 23:03:45 GMT
As expected one extra seat to the parliamentary groups of the SocDems and Liberals respectively. Big defeat for the People's Party and their populist anti-sanction campaign even if nearly half their loss is likely due to Centre running. Republic declined further from their dismal 2019 result, their narrow focus on independence doesn't have the same appeal anymore as voters are more interested in practical cooperation and increasingly favouring the moderate parties aligned with the two leading Danish parties.
SocDem MP Sjúrður Skaale personally got 3,804 of the 26,940 valid votes, up from 3,331 last time. Quite impressive and a new record. Anna Falkenberg got 2,973 of her party's 8,198 which given the string of current and former party leaders, ministers, mayors, ex-mayors and "village matadors" she was up against is pretty impressive too. Her predecessor Edmund Joensen, the grand old man on the Faroese centre-right, "only" got 1,885 last time.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 31, 2022 23:08:44 GMT
A record 24% of respondents are still undecided in the final Gallup poll from today, that's far higher than usual (about twice as high IIRC) and the final tv-debate tonight (on TV2, the biggest channel) may actually be decisive in such a scenario. The poll has the Red Bloc at 49.1% (incl. the green parties), so fairly close to a majority. Notable that most observers think Inger Støjberg was the big winner of the debate, she certainly went on the attack. Whether that's enough to reverse DD's decline during the campaign remains to be seen, but with that many undecided it might. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 1, 2022 3:49:20 GMT
Opinion Polls:  I included the 3 green sects into the Red Bloc. Only Moderates and Others (and Pedersen in 2019, not shown here) are in neither bloc. The period with the Blue Bloc ahead lasted only for 3 months (July-September). 1 year ago had been another - short - phase. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 1, 2022 7:47:03 GMT
I included the 3 green sects into the Red Bloc. Only Moderates and Others (and Pedersen in 2019, not shown here) are in neither bloc. It doesn't change much since they're so small, but as mentioned before it's not correct and it does make the Red Bloc slightly too big. Especially regarding the Free Greens which would never support a SocDem government, but is purely a testimonial party, the same would apply for the Vegans esp. when controlled by their fundi wing. The Alternative has de facto joined the Red Bloc during the campaign and you could argue they've been Red Bloc-ish since February 2020 because Josefine Fock who got elected leader back then ruled out not supporting any PM (and they only really have one choice since their membership is too leftist to agree to backing a Liberal). Before the moderate wing won control of the party in 2020 it was far from given they'd support a SocDem in the end. They could very well have gone the testimonial party route. The Red Bloc refers to parties that would support a "red" (SocDem) PM, not just ideologically leftist or "progressive" getuigenispartijen. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 1, 2022 10:55:08 GMT
SocDem MP Sjúrður Skaale personally got 3,804 of the 26,940 valid votes, up from 3,331 last time. Quite impressive and a new record. Anna Falkenberg got 2,973 of her party's 8,198 which given the string of current and former party leaders, ministers, mayors, ex-mayors and "village matadors" she was up against is pretty impressive too. Her predecessor Edmund Joensen, the grand old man on the Faroese centre-right, "only" got 1,885 last time. Turns out she's Edmund Joensen's granddaughter, so a bit of nepotism likely involved. Family dynasties and island politics. She's only the second female Faroese MP, the first one (Lisbeth Petersen) was also from the Union Party. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 1, 2022 12:33:24 GMT
Looks like turnout will be lower than last time, which is probably good news for the Red bloc given the Blue bloc lean of the undecided.
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(I've never seen any polling of how stoners vote and to what extent they bother voting). 