nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 2, 2022 15:03:44 GMT
Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod hasn't been reelected.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 2, 2022 15:43:24 GMT
Mette Frederiksen’s vote has swamped the other Social Democratic candidates in North Jutland. She topped the poll with 61000. The next 4 candidates got 5000-10000 votes. The candidate who came bottom last time lost almost half his votes but that was shockingly enough for him to get the 6th seat, while minister Rasmus Prehn won the 7th and final seat by just 62 votes.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 2, 2022 15:58:31 GMT
Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod hasn't been reelected. It says something about Kofod that as a prominent politician he wasn’t able to get a decent number of votes across the constituency. Instead, the ‘I’ve heard of and vaguely like this politician’ vote decisively moved from Krag to Heunicke. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 2, 2022 16:38:22 GMT
Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod hasn't been reelected. It says something about Kofod that as a prominent politician he wasn’t able to get a decent number of votes across the constituency. Instead, the ‘I’ve heard of and vaguely like this politician’ vote decisively moved from Krag to Heunicke. He has become "#MeToo controversial" because of an old affair about a sexual relationship with a 15 year old girl from their youth org during a party seminar where he was teaching (something that would have been a criminal offense if happening on e.g. a folk high school or at open university), so not really that surprising. The circumstances also turned out to be more problematic than reported back when it happened (she'd only turned 15 a few days earlier, was a virgin, he got her drunk, tried to put pressure on her afterwards). He's an old and close ally of Frederiksen, otherwise she'd have got rid of him years ago. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 2, 2022 17:24:09 GMT
All that’s left to announce is most of the Copenhagen personal votes. On the S side, Employment minister Peter Hummelgaard got a big personal vote in Tarnby while serial party switcher Ida Auken seems to be getting a shed load of votes. Education minister Pernille Rosenkrantz-Theil has fallen out of the top 5 in all of the nominating districts announced so, but will presumably be re-elected. The other incumbent MP Lars Allan Rasmussen has conceded but I have no idea who is winning the 4th seat. Also, SF leader Pia Olsen Dyhr is getting a large vote but is expected to get fewer votes than party colleague Jacob Mark from the Zealand constituency.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 2, 2022 17:37:51 GMT
Regarding the most likely government some of the usually more well informed commentators seem to think it'll either be an SocDem-SPP-SocLib government based or the Moderates teaming up with those three parties (the pragmatic part of the Red bloc), which would give the government 88 seats and a majority if you add the two MPs from the North Atlantic SocDem parties that usually join the SocDem parliamentary group. This will of course only happen after several attempts to include the Liberals, and e.g. Erik Holstein from Altinget predict the government will be formed after the 3rd "Queen round". There have been informal contacts between the Moderates and SocLibs trying to find common ground, and if they succeed no government can be formed without them.
SocDems/EP/Siumut 52
Moderates 16
SPP 15
SocLibs 7
Løkke Rasmussen can probably justify such a government because it blocks the Red Greens and The Alternative (the "far left") from getting any influence, provided the combination with the Liberals has been tried first.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 2, 2022 17:53:59 GMT
I've been sceptical about the SocLibs getting into the government due to how hard earned the SocDems reputation for being hardliners on "foreigner policy" has been and how strategically valuable it is for them, but ironically the election strengthened their kingmaker position (by moderating the centre-right) and if deputy leader Martin Lidegaard - who is more pragmatic on "foreigner policy" (he's basically where the Moderates are) and not woke - succeeds Sofie Carsten Nielsen as leader the concessions on immigration/integration they'll demand will likely be something the SocDems can live with (esp. given that the Moderates will demand something similar), maybe just ditching the Rwanda project, more liberal rules for labour migration and family reunification for Danish citizens.
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 2, 2022 18:16:39 GMT
All that’s left to announce is most of the Copenhagen personal votes. On the S side, Employment minister Peter Hummelgaard got a big personal vote in Tarnby while serial party switcher Ida Auken seems to be getting a shed load of votes. Education minister Pernille Rosenkrantz-Theil has fallen out of the top 5 in all of the nominating districts announced so, but will presumably be re-elected. The other incumbent MP Lars Allan Rasmussen has conceded but I have no idea who is winning the 4th seat. Also, SF leader Pia Olsen Dyhr is getting a large vote but is expected to get fewer votes than party colleague Jacob Mark from the Zealand constituency. Apparently she's a priest. As was her mother. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 2, 2022 18:31:18 GMT
All that’s left to announce is most of the Copenhagen personal votes. On the S side, Employment minister Peter Hummelgaard got a big personal vote in Tarnby while serial party switcher Ida Auken seems to be getting a shed load of votes. Education minister Pernille Rosenkrantz-Theil has fallen out of the top 5 in all of the nominating districts announced so, but will presumably be re-elected. The other incumbent MP Lars Allan Rasmussen has conceded but I have no idea who is winning the 4th seat. Also, SF leader Pia Olsen Dyhr is getting a large vote but is expected to get fewer votes than party colleague Jacob Mark from the Zealand constituency. Apparently she's a priest. As was her mother. No, she a theologian (like her mother), but worked in educational publishing before she entered politics. She interned as a hospital chaplain and prison chaplain after graduating, but she has never been a priest (or minister as it is called in the Lutheran church, but that's a bit confusing when talking about a politician who has been an actual minister  ). I'm not sure switching parties twice makes her a serial party switcher btw, but your milage may wary. A very short series if so. |
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 2, 2022 18:46:56 GMT
Apparently she's a priest. As was her mother. No, she a theologian (like her mother), but worked in educational publishing before she entered politics. She interned as a hospital chaplain and prison chaplain after graduating, but she has never been a priest (or minister as it is called in the Lutheran church, but that's a bit confusing when talking about a politician who has been an actual minister ). I'm not sure switching parties twice makes her a serial party switcher btw, but your milage may wary. A very short series if so. Interesting. Lots of hospital chaplains in the UK aren't priests these days as there is a shortage of ordained ministers...
And I would agree with you. Switching twice is just getting started.  |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 2, 2022 18:49:43 GMT
nelson could Frederiksen really form a government with a 1 seat majority including the North Atlantic parties after spending the election campaigning talking about the need for a stable government? Obviously it may prove politically easier (in terms of policies and actually wanting her as PM) but it would be precarious and require The Moderates to be hardline in government negotiations. She could, but only after extensive negotiations with the Moderates and Liberals to justify it. If the Liberals - as expected - turn down the offer of joining a broad government she'll need support from both the SPP and the Moderates, which may prove too difficult. But then again the SPP leadership really wants to be in government. Calling new elections isn't a realistic option (it would be punished by the voters), so even a short lived Red bloc based government is preferable to giving up. As mentioned above a SocDem, SocLib, SPP coalition is considered one of the main options. Frederiksen has very explicitly promised not to do SocDem/SocLib, and the SocLibs have very adamantly promised not to back a SocDem one-party government, so SPP probably needs to be in it. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 2, 2022 18:52:38 GMT
Given the SocLibs pulled out of the government and have lost seats. They don't have as much leverage surely
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 2, 2022 19:07:08 GMT
Given the SocLibs pulled out of the government and have lost seats. They don't have as much leverage surely. They weren't in the government, it was a one-party government they provided confidence and supply to. Paradoxically they've gained leverage and in a way resumed their traditional kingmaker position. No Red bloc or centre-right (Blue bloc + Moderates) government can be formed without their support and they now have a more acceptable partner to their immediate right (the Moderates) with similar views on many issues. If the Liberals don't want a broad government the SocLibs are in a key position, if the Liberals agree to SocDems (52 incl. NA seats), Liberals (24 incl. NA seat), Moderates (16) they're surplus to requirement, but otherwise their position is quite strong. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 2, 2022 19:12:03 GMT
nelson is there any discussion on what sort of posts/policies the Social Liberals want in the government? Obviously the Social Democrats (and presumably the Socialists as well) are wary of their ‘reforms’ and demands based politics, and it’s not like a party with 3.8% can look reasonable asking for a number of heavy hitting posts, but presumably the Social Liberals don’t want to make the compromises needed for government without getting something good, and as you say they are in a relatively strong position for negotiations.
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Post by John Chanin on Nov 2, 2022 19:36:16 GMT
I presume from the discussion here that Danes get two votes - one for the party, and one for the preferred candidate on the party list. I assume the personal vote can’t be for a different party. How many candidates would there generally be on the party list (compared to the number of seats available in that province)? Do parties make any attempt to recommend who to give the personal vote to? By the way thanks to nelson and jamie for their coverage of a country I know little about, with a confusing plethora of parties, the distinctions between which I find hard to discern despite my reading of this thread. |
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Post by greenhert on Nov 2, 2022 19:48:30 GMT
It is a miracle that the Alternative managed to actually gain a seat, especially with the Independent Greens (who if they had joined up would have given the whole alliance at least one extra seat) still refusing to (re)join them.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 2, 2022 19:55:23 GMT
I presume from the discussion here that Danes get two votes - one for the party, and one for the preferred candidate on the party list. I assume the personal vote can’t be for a different party. How many candidates would there generally be on the party list (compared to the number of seats available in that province)? Do parties make any attempt to recommend who to give the personal vote to? By the way thanks to nelson and jamie for their coverage of a country I know little about, with a confusing plethora of parties, the distinctions between which I find hard to discern despite my reading of this thread. You get to vote for the party and if you wish a candidate from the list of said party (only around half of voters choose to do this and it seems to have declined this election). The number of candidates is up to the party. The Social Democrats for instance choose to nominate a candidate for every nominating district. In West Jutland this meant 11 candidates, of which 4 were elected. Conversely, The Moderates only nominated 3 candidates and won 1 seat. Obviously not all of these candidates are equally likely to be elected, those elected from the vast majority of parties are the candidates who are either well known, are allocated a part of the constituency with a lot of votes (in the smallest parties often only 1 or 2 serious candidates cover the whole constituency), or run a particularly strong campaign. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 2, 2022 19:59:09 GMT
It is a miracle that the Alternative managed to actually gain a seat, especially with the Independent Greens (who if they had joined up would have given the whole alliance at least one extra seat) still refusing to (re)join them. If the Independents Greens had joined up with The Alternative its not clear they would have collectively made the threshold. The Alternative gained many tactical votes from people who wanted a Red government and didn't want them wasting votes. If they had included the Independent Greens then the party would presumably had opposed supporting any realistic left wing government and there would have been no attempt to save them by left wing voters. They also wouldn't have had as clear a profile on the environment (their main selling point), as the Independent Greens are a lot more focused on fairly niche 'anti-racism' than green politics. |
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 2, 2022 20:01:26 GMT
It is a miracle that the Alternative managed to actually gain a seat, especially with the Independent Greens (who if they had joined up would have given the whole alliance at least one extra seat) still refusing to (re)join them. If the Independents Greens had joined up with The Alternative its not clear they would have collectively made the threshold. The Alternative gained many tactical votes from people who wanted a Red government and didn't want them wasting votes. If they had included the Independent Greens then the party would presumably had opposed supporting any realistic left wing government and there would have been no attempt to save them by left wing voters. They also wouldn't have had as clear a profile on the environment (their main selling point), as the Independent Greens are a lot more focused on fairly niche 'anti-racism' than green politics. They sound more like the SWP than a Green party. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 2, 2022 20:23:03 GMT
If the Independents Greens had joined up with The Alternative its not clear they would have collectively made the threshold. The Alternative gained many tactical votes from people who wanted a Red government and didn't want them wasting votes. If they had included the Independent Greens then the party would presumably had opposed supporting any realistic left wing government and there would have been no attempt to save them by left wing voters. They also wouldn't have had as clear a profile on the environment (their main selling point), as the Independent Greens are a lot more focused on fairly niche 'anti-racism' than green politics. They sound more like the SWP than a Green party. Well, they are even a deeply green party - but close to another green group than the ecologists... |
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