Danish Parliamentary Election 2022

[nelson]

Aug 15, 2022 16:59:43 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Aug 15, 2022 16:18:05 GMT jamie said:

Pape officially wants to be prime minister. Given he says the Blue leader with the most seats should become prime minister, this should mean the Conservatives finish ahead of the Liberals given his personal popularity.

I guess, Pape meant, whoever has most MPs behind him, knowing, that the smaller blue parties prefer him.

Yes, while none of the smaller parties have officially backed him and they all say various versions of "we'll support whoever give us the best offer" it's clear that Pape is their preferred candidate, and unless the Liberals become clearly bigger (as in 10 seats bigger) he will go for it and likely get the job. He's perceived as more emphatic, more trustworthy, with far less of an ego than Liberal leader Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, and he has worked 18 years in regular jobs which is a plus given centre-right voters are tired of "student council politicians" (and having been in politics all her life with only a brief stint working for a trade union Frederiksen is vulnerable on this).

Pape is a personal friend of the Denmark Democrats' leader Inger Støjberg (they often go to concerts together and are from the same area), who has a very tense relationship with Jakob Ellemann-Jensen from when she was his deputy, he is ideologically closer to DPP and New Right on values while Ellemann is quite socially liberal and progressive, and to Liberal Alliance on economics, and even to the Christian Democrats if they manage to get in as a personal Christian and regular churchgoer. He also has a personality that's deemed better suited for making a heterogenous coalition work than Ellemann.

And he is a Jutlander like the majority of centre-right voters while Ellemann-Jensen is from the so-called Whisky Belt (an odd term that only makes sense if you think of the finest single malts), the affluent suburbs north of Copenhagen. Apart from Erik Eriksen (1950-53) who was a farmer from Funen (so on the "right side" of the Great Belt) no Danish centre-right PM has been born outside Jutland since Professor Johan Henrik Deuntzer (1901-1905). It may sound silly and parochial but in a small country with only two main regions it's a signifiant electoral handicap, many people from "the mainland" don't like the idea of an "øtosse" (island mug) leading the country and especially not one from the leafy suburbs and satellite towns north of Copenhagen (and even on the SocDem side it is tough for a Copenhagener/East Dane to get the leadership, the only PM in the last 40 years born outside Jutland was SocDem Helle Thorning-Schmidt, and she is also the only non-Jutlandic SocDem PM in the post-war era. 

The only centre-right party leader who would prefer a Liberal PM (if he can't become PM himself) is Lars Løkke Rasmussen, and he has wowed not to back a government that doesn't reach across the aisle (hoping to emerge as the compromise candidate, but probably willing to back Frederiksen in a coalition with the SocLibs after lots of political theatre). 

Pape would be Denmark's first openly gay PM (and likely the first overall, there aren't any "confirmed bachelor" types among the previous ones). Last year he married his long term boyfriend the much younger Josue Medina Vasquez, who is the nephew of a former president of the Dominican Republic. Medina was in 2018 punched in a night club by a Slovak lawyer who claimed he was proposing him and right wingers on social media were up in arms about the matter being labelled a hate crime and the Slovak getting a much harsher penalty than usual, claiming he was right to defend himself against Medina's advances and ridiculing Pape as a cuckold. But the public was generally sympathetic to Pape and didn't seem to buy into the cuckold slurs. In general there aren't that many hardcore homophobes in Denmark, and they rarely vote Conservative anyway. Still, middle aged devout Christian gay man married to much younger and hotter Latino often seen partying alone is a combination some people will try to exploit. 

[nelson]

MEP and former Minister of Defence Søren Gade is running for parliament. Gade is on the "hardliner" wing of the Liberals and was a close ally of Inger Støjberg, he is hugely popular with the party's core voters in Western and Central Jutland, and is clearly returning to Danish politics to stop the bleeding to DD and secure the Liberals remain bigger than the Conservatives, and serve as a link to Støjberg trying to get her to back Ellemann-Jensen after all. I suppose the only drawback for the Liberals is that Gade was the base's preferred chairman and would almost certainly have got the chairmanship if he had wanted it, so it'll remind the voters who don't like Ellemann-Jensen that he's the guy they're stuck with. 

[rcronald]

nelson , what are the main differences between the DD and the NB?

[finsobruce]

Aug 16, 2022 8:56:08 GMT rcronald said:

nelson , what are the main differences between the DD and the NB?

if the darling daughter  cancels her direct debit while being the designated driver  it will be noted well in New Brunswick.

[nelson]

The SocDem summer group meeting (for the MPs) started today. Frederiksen declined to comment on an election date only saying the election will be held before Constitution Day next year, which many pundits called comical and ludicrous given the situation 

She presented five focus points for the government (inflation, welfare, foreigner policy, climate and "creating and maintaining good living conditions in rural areas", and a proposal to ban rent increases of more than 4% per year during the next two years to avoid renters being forced to move, which is clearly intended as a campaign promise. Including both rural living conditions and foreigner policy signals the SocDems are back to courting provincial working class voters after having pivoted towards more focus on the cities and green issues after their dismal municipal election results in the cities last year. 

Fredriksen also stated the coming election will be "a referendum on the Arne-pension" (the early retirement option for people who've been on the labour market for 40 years) now that Pape has declared his candidacy for PM. The Liberals have tried to eliminate this SocDem trump card by saying they'll keep the pension, but the Conservatives still want to abolish it (claiming it's irresponsible to shrink the work force when there's labour shortage), so the SocDems are trying to revive it as a campaign theme (which probably won't work as everyone knows the Liberals can and will veto a roll back). 

[nelson]

Aug 16, 2022 8:56:08 GMT rcronald said:

nelson , what are the main differences between the DD and the NB?

DD doesn't have that many actual policies yet, so it's hard to be specific, apart from the EU and international agreements. But Støjberg is essentially much more moderate and milquetoast on nearly everything. She is expected to basically continue the Liberals centre-right line on socioeconomic issues, whereas NB are very right wing on economics/taxes by Danish standards (no corporate tax, no inheritance tax, flat rate etc.). Otherwise the main difference is that NB wants Denmark to leave the EU and the international conventions on human rights, refugees and citizenship asap, while Støjberg claims that the EU can be "brought back" to the old EEC and the conventions "reformed" which is obviously not something any Danish government can influence so it's essentially a non-answer. 

Whatever you think of them NB have actual policies and a clear vision of the kind of country they want (their model is the German speaking part of Switzerland) with decentralisation, insurance based welfare combined with bare bones basic income (on 60% of the lowest income researchers estimate you can live on in Denmark to be supplemented by odd jobs), but with generous benefits for the disabled and chronically ill and free public healthcare . They dislike windmills and solar (claiming it's inefficient and ruins the landscape), and absolutely love nuclear energy. They argue that since the Danish contribution to climate change is completely negligent there's no point in DK doing anything to reduce CO2 emissions unless it's otherwise beneficial. Støjberg is far from green, but is basically much more moderate and milquetoast on such issues.

NB's immigration policy is centered on "the three demands": stop for spontaneous asylum seekers, deportation of anyone convicted of a crime and incarceration if that's not possible, and deportation of all unemployed non-citizens who can't find a job within a two year period, they also want to discriminate citizenship applicants based on the track record of their nationality (which would make it nearly impossible for people from Middle Eastern countries and Somalia to get citizenship), and they want a full stop to all public integration projects for immigrants ("integration is a personal responsibility", they're are positive towards labour migration from unproblematic ( = non-Muslim and non-African) countries. They've promised not to support a government that won't agree to the three demands. How much of that Støjberg would be onboard with is unknown, but clearly not all of it. 

Støjberg is basically a feel good politician whose appeal is her folksy personality and background, and "common touch". I expect her to keep her platform as vague as possible to try to be all things to all right of centre people. 

[nelson]

Støjberg has accepted three more DPP defectors as parliamentary candidates: ex-deputy leader Søren Espersen (69), Jens Henrik Thulesen Dahl (61) (brother of former DPP leader Kristian Thulesen Dahl) and Hans Kristian Skibby (53). Accepting three more DPP veterans (in addition to ex-group chairman Peter Skaarup) makes the party look more like DPP 2.0. Surprised about Espersen whose uncompromising style and many controversial statements seems a bad fit for the image Støjberg is trying to project. 

[nelson]

The Denmark Democrats have presented a list of 30 candidates, 13 ex-DPP (incl. 7 MPs), 11 Liberals (incl. 4 councillors) and 1 Conservative, the remaining 5 haven't been politically active before and are from the private sector (mostly middle managers, no heavyweights). 

[nelson]

The Moderates have made it clear that they can't be part of or support a government that includes Inger Støjberg, this is unsurprising but limits the available realistic government options. Assuming Støjberg doesn't collapse (which she may well do, but I don't find it likely) and get her c. 10% (or even 7-8%) and that the Moderates get in there'll be two realistic governing alternatives.

The following parties won't be in any government: New Right, DPP, LA, SPP (even though they badly want to) and the Red Greens. That leaves SocDems, SocLibs, Libs, Cons and DD.

The two alternatives:

A. SocDems, SocLibs, Moderates

The SocLibs won't accept a SocDem minority government and they have no interest in allowing SPP to join in a "Thorning-Schmidt redux", if the Moderates get a non-laughable number of seats (say, 7-8) the SocLibs will want them included since it's a symbolic victory for them to unite the two sides and it makes the economically liberal part of the government bigger.

If the "Red Bloc" wins a SocDem/SocLib government is the only realistic inter-bloc alternative, but that's not necessarily attractive to Frederiksen, and would be somewhat humiliating if the SocLibs have just toppled her government. By allowing the Moderates to join she could pretend it was a "broad government reaching across the aisle" in "a time of crisis" etc. which would make concessions on economics easier to accept for her core voters and the SocLibs wouldn't have the same veto power because they couldn't really threaten to leave such a government without damaging their facilitator of broad cooperation brand.

If Red Bloc needs the Moderates for a majority the above is also going to be the end result since, but the negotiations will be longer with a lot of "political theatre" along the way and LLR will perhaps try to offer himself as a compromise for PM, which no one else will be interested in.

SPP will accept such a government, likely after getting some token concessions on climate and welfare spending, the Red Greens could try to force a new election but that would be a gamble and I doubt they'll risk it. On the plus side from a leftist POV such a government would continue the climate transformation and be softer on refugees (but only slightly, Frederiksen won't want to make "foreigner policy" a big vote winner for the Blue Bloc once again after spending so much political capital neutralizing it), it'll also be more liberal on labour migration, but the left isn't keen on that for wage dumping reasons.

LLR's reentry as a self-styled "moderate" has given the SocLibs a fig leaf for not having to choose between a Red Bloc and a Blue Bloc, and that makes a centrist mishmash the only real alternative to what would arguably be the most right wing government Denmark has had since 1947.

B. Conservatives, Liberals, Denmark Democrats (not necessarily in that order)

If the Blue Bloc wins a majority on their own the Liberals and Conservatives will almost certainly prefer to take the wind out of Støjberg's sails by having DD join the government and forcing her to be part of various compromises, if they don't they risk DD becoming the biggest centre-right party in the polls and it'll be a constant thorn in their side. Støjberg likes the perks of office and will feel it as a vindication after the humiliating Realm Court verdict, so she'll take it. I think Pape will become PM due to small party support unless the Liberals become significantly bigger than the Conservatives.

The Liberals and Conservatives have no interest in a grand coalition, which would just allow DD and the smaller right wing parties to grow and they have no interest in offering concessions to LLR (the sooner he becomes an irrelevancy and leaves politics the better for them).

[nelson]

The SocDems will of course try to attack the Blue Bloc on welfare, but they face a couple of problems:

1) Allienating swing voters

Frederiksen and her inner circle panicked after the municipal elections, gave in to pressure from Copenhagen SocDems) and switched away from the successful pro-provincial / ordinary people, "we're once again a working class party" line and started to rhetorically, symbolically and to some extent also politically placate the urban middle class (and this is down to details like replacing a naturalist painting from rural 19th century Denmark with an abstract and very "modern art-y" painting by a female Peruvian artist as background for her New Years Speech) and Frederiksen suddenly started to talk less about canned mackerel-in-tomato being her favourite food and get very interested in literature and interview writers and painters on social media, she also dialed up the climate crisis talk and ditched rural/urban inequality as a theme. Politically she stopped doing anything on "foreigner policy" (and some of the more far reaching election promises on this were canned while some welfare measures that primarily benefit poor ethnic minorities were implemented). So they've lost a lot of the carefully built up credibility as "the defenders of ordinary people" and gotten a more "progressive" image and given who the swing voters are in Danish elections that's not an advantage.

This means that the swingy provincial working class / small local business owner segment is once again up for grabs (a part of the population that sees everyone apart from the Liberals, DPP, SocDems - and now DD - as elitist middle class parties), and Støjberg has tailor made her image to appeal to them (the main issue is whether her incessant talk about Jutland will alienate a few East Danish hicks who'd otherwise resonate with her message).

Frederiksen has also gotten an image of being arrogant and magtfuldkommen (litt. “power absolutist”, but its connotation in Danish is a leader not listening to others and relying completely on own strength) and while the self-identified salt of the earth types like strong leaders, they’re touchy when it comes to perceived arrogance and haughtiness.

2) Crying wolf when the wolf never seems to bite 

Danish voters have been used to that "The Right" can't or won't actually do much that moves the country much to the right (and in fact SocDem governments are often able to cut and restructure the welfare state more because they are facing less organized opposition (right winger often - imo rightly - mock the trade unions for becoming awfully quiet when a SocDem government does something that increases inequality). Nyrup Rasmussen's labour market reforms in the 90s and the Thorning Schmidt governments cuts in the 10s (with Frederiksen as Minister of Social Affairs) were a lot tougher than what anything a centre-right government could have realistically gotten away with at the time. Given that SocDem government are always dependent on the economically liberal SocLibs (a party that hasn’t been economically centre-left since the late 60s) the difference isn't that big and in fact inequality has statistically not gone up less during SocDem governments (and nothing any mainstream party is willing to implement will actually reduce inequality).

The main reason for this is that post-SocDem heyday (1929-82) centre-right PMs like the Conservative Poul Schlüter (1982-93), and Liberal Anders Fogh Rasmussen (2001-09) were very aware that the welfare state and the Danish model on the labour market are popular with the vast majority of voters, and they saw their role more as facilitators of a gradual move towards a more liberal economy than big sudden changes that challenged the consensus. AFR was big on a "culture war” that should gradually change Danish mentality and make people more wiling to accept liberal values, incl. on economics. Schlüter was until 1988 dependent on a splinter party from the SocDem right wing (the Centre Democrats) and the economically centrist Christian People’s Party.

LLR (2009-11 and 2015-19) had a background in local (regional) politics and continued AFR’s line 2009-10 before he moved right and lost the 2011 election, he started out pragmatically in his second term, then had to let the Conservatives and LA join to save his government and promoted more right wing policies, knowing DPP would block it all. In general the strong quasi-SocDem DPP meant that his governments didn’t have much room to move right (not even the one Liberal Alliance sat in which was completely impotent).

This means that it's comparatively hard to scare Danish voters with "right wing austerity" because usually it hasn't really materialized, and the SocDems doubling down on the so-called Arne pension for people who have been working since they were very young also run the risk of highlightning that they haven't been able to do that much else and haven't prevented rising inequality (they have a few things done like putting a damper on foreign investment funds buying up housing in Copenhagen and hiking rents, but that was notably with DPP support and against the SocLibs).

…

Notably both LLR’s moves to the right ended in the SocDems taking over, which may give Frederiksen some hope, but being the incumbent and with a bad media image it’ll be tougher to pull off. The 2011 election was after a decade a centre-right rule and the 2019 after an impotent and chaotic government.

Nowadays Denmark is too polarized for one party to include urban progressives and welfare loving hicks, the 2019 model where the SocDems concentrated on the hicks, while letting their allies in Red Bloc snatch the urban progressives and the ethnic minority vote worked fine, but the SocDem leadership probably hadn’t realized that continuing that strategy would inevitably mean that they’d lose the Lord Mayorship in Copenhagen (SocDem since 1898, and viewed as a “crown jewel”) and reduce their chances of hanging on to the mayorship in the three largest provincial cities, then the municipal elections happened and they got stuck in a complicated parliamentary situation with too many compromises with Libs and Cons (they had expected to have a bigger DPP to work with on welfare, making it possible to avoid the economically liberal parties).

…

The modern centre-left in the developed world generally faces the problem that they need the support of both the progressive urban middle class (and the culturally middle class/middle class aspiring precariat) and economically left leaning "hicks", and that these two groups don't like each other. In many countries they also need the support of SoCon ethnic minorities seen as a threat by the latter and with values at odds with the former.

In a Scandinavian context where we have a multiparty system organized in a more or less formalized two bloc system the obvious solution is a division of labour with the SocDems becoming the party of the "hicks" & WWC (+ assimilated non-whites with similar class background) and letting other minor parties on the left or centre-left cater to progressives and (non-assimilated) ethnic minorities allowing the bloc to attract an overall majority. The main obstacle to that is usually that the SocDem ledership is itself urban progressives and view "the hicks" as reactionary (and often even bigots). With a leadership whose own social background is provincial working class and having decided to return the party to its "working class roots" Frederiksen successfully implemented that strategy in 2019, but then events happened (some of which, like the pandemic, seemed to be a blessing at first, but later backfired), and DPP's partial collapse during the election campaign made the parliamentary situation too murky. Then the municipal elections let to the strategy being abandoned and now they're trying to reheat it while pretending they've never ditched it, but have lost credibility among the target audience.

One obvious problem with the division of labour strategy is that it reinforces cultural and political differences between the parties within the bloc which makes it harder to cooperate.

[nelson]

New Megafon poll has the Conservatives slightly ahead of the Liberals, so an early indication that they may have gained a couple of points after Pape declared his candidacy for PM, possibly some LA and New Right supporters that want to secure he finishes ahead of Ellemann, but of course not possible to say based on one poll. Blue Bloc majority of 50.5% and 88 seats vs. 83 to Red Bloc and four to the Moderates. DPP back above the threshold in this one as well, starting to look like a trend. 

It would be natural if the is a degree of consolidation between the two big centre-right parties based on who you prefer as PM (or consider the lesser evil), and that may force some of the minor Blue Bloc parties to endorse a PM candidate in advance to stop the bleeding, that may especially be the case for New Right whose voters almost unanimously would prefer Pape. 

The Alternative 1.0 (+0.3)
Free Greens 0.8 (+0.7)
Vegans 0.2 (-0.1)

Red Greens 7.9 (-0.4)
SPP 8.8 (-0.5)
SocDems 22.6 (+0.9)

Social Liberals 6.8 (-0.1)
Moderates 2.2 (-1.4) 

Christian Democrats 0.6 (+0.1)
Liberals 14.3 (+1.2)
Conservatives 15.2 (+1.8)
LA 3.9 (-1.3)

Denmark Democrats 10.0 (-0.8)
DPP 2.8 (+1.1)
New Right 2.9 (-1.3)

Others 0.0 (-0.2)

[Khunanup]

Aug 19, 2022 14:15:56 GMT nelson said:

New Megafon poll has the Conservatives slightly ahead of the Liberals, so an early indication that they may have gained a couple of points after Pape declared his candidacy for PM, possibly some LA and New Right supporters that want to secure he finishes ahead of Ellemann, but of course not possible to say based on one poll. Blue Bloc majority of 50.5% and 88 seats vs. 83 to Red Bloc and four to the Moderates. DPP back above the threshold in this one as well, starting to look like a trend. 

It would be natural if the is a degree of consolidation between the two big centre-right parties based on who you prefer as PM (or consider the lesser evil), and that may force some of the minor Blue Bloc parties to endorse a PM candidate in advance to stop the bleeding, that may especially be the case for New Right whose voters almost unanimously would prefer Pape. 

The Alternative 1.0 (+0.3)
Free Greens 0.8 (+0.7)
Vegans 0.2 (-0.1)

Red Greens 7.9 (-0.4)
SPP 8.8 (-0.5)
SocDems 22.6 (+0.9)

Christian Democrats 0.6 (+0.1)
Liberals 14.3 (+1.2)
Conservatives 15.2 (+1.8)
LA 3.9 (-1.3)

Denmark Democrats 10.0 (-0.8)
DPP 2.8 (+1.1)
New Right 2.9 (-1.3)

Others 0.0 (-0.2)

You've missed out RV.

[nelson]

Aug 19, 2022 17:51:35 GMT Khunanup said:

Aug 19, 2022 14:15:56 GMT nelson said:

New Megafon poll 

You've missed out RV.

Well, I didn't really missed them, just didn't bother. I was focused on the Blue Bloc and also found the potential switch between the "red left" and the green micro parties a little bit interesting so I didn't include the "uncommitted centrists". I guess it seems odd because I absentmindedly included "Other" so it looked like a complete poll. 

The SocLibs aren't particularly interesting since there's no change, they're on 6.8 (-0.1). I didn't include the Moderates either, and that's a bigger omission since they're down from 3.6 to 2.2 and it would be a big deal if they miss the 2% threshold (even though LLR would almost certainly get a constituency seat anyway which is one of the three thresholds for getting levelling seats (a party only needs to pass one of them), but I can't see them join a government if they miss the 2% threshold - it would be too big a humiliation of LLR).  

[nelson]

The parties are already busy putting up stumbling blocks for the post-election government formation process. 

First LA leader Alex Vanopslagh said they can't accept Støjberg joining a government unless she shows remorse. Støjberg countered by saying that's "a diffuse term" and that she "doesn't regret protecting the girls" (the underage teenage girls on asylum centers married to grown men, which she illegally separated). Since Støjberg is notoriously stubborn and has always seemed completely unwilling to admit she's done anything wrong it could complicate a Blue Bloc government if she refuses to give LA a fig leaf for approving her (they were the first centre-right party that backed charging her so they can't just completely ignore her conviction).

Then Lars Løkke Rasmussen said that the Moderates would find it very difficult to back Frederiksen for PM due to her "willfulness" and treatment of the civil service but could back another Social Democrat. "Never have we had such a willfull government. Never have we had a government putting its thumb on the civil service in this way. She personifies this government. So of course it would be much easier to support another Social Democratic candidate for PM". 

...

In other news:

It turns out the government's proposed 4% limit on rent increases has a giant loophole allowing hikes if the owners can prove their expenses have increased more than 4%, which makes it a bit of a damp squid. 

In an attempt to show the government is doing something on immigration (which they, despite all the foreign criticism and domestic tough talk, haven't actually done much) a diplomatic mission in Rwanda has been opened to lobby the Danish version of the UK Rwanda refugee plan (which is older than the UK one, but has stalled), which has provoked the left and SocLibs, but doesn't seem to convince the voters it's aimed at.

Right now we're waiting for the government's economic 2030 Plan and when it's launched it's expected the election will be called soon after, but who knows maybe Frederiksen will jut keep on pretending she isn't campaigning while doing pandering to the rubes.

Wearing an even frumpier than usual dress Mette Frederiksen took the stage with the band Kandis ("crystal sugar") on a Dansktop festival (a very trashy musical genre combining the German schlager tradition with pop country and sing along-pop from half a century ago, named after a hit list radio program from the 60's. Can't say I look forward to months of Frederiksen trying to be as folksy and lowbrow as possible courting 50+ Støjberg voters.

It turns out the government's proposed 4% limit on rent increases has a giant loophole allowing hikes if the owners can prove their expenses exceed 4%, which sort of defies the purpose. 

In an attempt to show the government is doing something on immigration (which they, despite all the foreign criticism and domestic tough haven't actually done much) a diplomatic mission in Rwanda has been opened to lobby the Danish version of the UK Rwanda refugee plan (which is older than the UK one, but ofc more attractive for the Rwandans to make a deal with a bigger country), which has provoked the left and SocLibs, but doesn't seem to convince the voters it's aimed at.

Right now we're waiting for the government's economic 2030 Plan and when it's launched it's expected the election will be called soon after, but who knows maybe Frederiksen will jut keep on pretending she isn't campaigning while doing pandering to the rubes.

[John Chanin]

Aug 21, 2022 5:53:18 GMT nelson said:

It turns out the government's proposed 4% limit on rent increases has a giant loophole allowing hikes if the owners can prove their expenses have increased more than 4%, which makes it a bit of a damp squid. 

I always prefer damp squids. The dry ones tend to be a bit tough.

[finsobruce]

Aug 21, 2022 9:37:30 GMT John Chanin said:

Aug 21, 2022 5:53:18 GMT nelson said:

It turns out the government's proposed 4% limit on rent increases has a giant loophole allowing hikes if the owners can prove their expenses have increased more than 4%, which makes it a bit of a damp squid. 

I always prefer damp squids. The dry ones tend to be a bit tough.

 you could have a Cephlapodcast on the subject.

[nelson]

Voxmeter poll with the Conservatives 1.5 times bigger than the Liberals and the Moderates right below the 2% threshold. LA gaining 2.6 points, which could be a reward for saying no to Støjberg in government, many centre-right voters don't like the a good idea of ignoring the Realm Court verdict completely. The ex-DPP heavy candidate list seems to be harming DD a bit, they've been sliding in a couple of polls, or it may just be due to less media exposure.

Social Democrats 25.1%
SPP 7.6%
Red Greens 7.5%

The Alternative 1.2%
Free Greens 0.5%
Vegans / Green Alliance 0.3%

Social Liberals 5.6%
Moderates 1.9%

Conservatives 16.5%
Liberals 11.0%
Liberal Alliance 4.9%
Christian Democrats 0.6%

Denmark Democrats 9.3%
New Right 4.3%
DPP 3.2%

[nelson]

Danish tabloid Ekstrabladet is running a story about Søren Pape Poulsen's husband not actually being the biological nephew of former Dominican president Danilo Medina Sánchez (in office 2012-20).

Pape has issued a statement saying that they're related, that it's common to call more distant relatives uncle in the Dominican Republic, and that Josue and DMS had "an uncle-nephew relationship throughout his childhood", but that it "gradually faded" after his father passed away 15 years ago. But according to EB the president's family say they don't know Josue Medina Vasquez Poulsen at all. Doesn't seem their reporters have spoken to Danilo Medina Sánchez himself though.

EDIT: they've spoken to the family lawyer, and he has - on behalf of the family incl. DMS - said that none of them recognize Josue, they've also checked official documents. 
...

In more directly election related news LLR has said that a SocDem, SocLib, Moderate government isn't broad enough (but he has to say that, I still think it's one of the two most likely end results), and all the Blue Bloc parties have urged him to drop his idea of a broad government and join them. Blue Bloc trying to squeeze the Moderates and implying a vote for LLR is a vote for Frederiksen will be a recurring theme in the campaign and this is a necessary first step for them before they start attacking. 

LLR has proposed cutting the extra income tax (known as the "top tax") for high earners but abolish the basic tax allowance for tax payers with the 5% highest incomes, which I suppose would be a decent compromise within the Blue Bloc (and for the SocLibs). 

[rcronald]

Aug 24, 2022 7:52:05 GMT nelson said:

Danish tabloid Ekstrabladet is running a story about Søren Pape Poulsen's husband not actually being the biological nephew of former Dominican president Danilo Medina Sánchez (in office 2012-20).

Pape has issued a statement saying that they're related, that it's common to call more distant relatives uncle in the Dominican Republic, and that Josue and DMS had "an uncle-nephew relationship throughout his childhood", but that it "gradually faded" after his father passed away 15 years ago. But according to EB the president's family say they don't know Josue Medina Vasquez Poulsen at all. Doesn't seem their reporters have spoken to Danilo Medina Sánchez himself though.

...

In more directly election related news LLR has said that a SocDem, SocLib, Moderate government isn't broad enough (but he has to say that, I still think it's one of the two most likely end results), and all the Blue Bloc parties have urged him to drop his idea of a broad government and join them. Blue Bloc trying to squeeze the Moderates and implying a vote for LLR is a vote for Frederiksen will be a recurring theme in the campaign and this is a necessary first step for them before they start attacking. 

LLR has proposed cutting the extra income tax (known as the "top tax") for high earners but abolish the basic tax allowance for tax payers with the 5% highest incomes, which I suppose would be a decent compromise within the Blue Bloc (and for the SocLibs). 

Is the danish electorate supposed to care as to whether the husband of a politician is actually a relative of an unknown (to the public) and not that controversial foreign former politician?

[nelson]

Aug 24, 2022 12:55:19 GMT rcronald said:

Aug 24, 2022 7:52:05 GMT nelson said:

Danish tabloid Ekstrabladet is running a story about Søren Pape Poulsen's husband not actually being the biological nephew of former Dominican president Danilo Medina Sánchez (in office 2012-20).

Pape has issued a statement saying that they're related, that it's common to call more distant relatives uncle in the Dominican Republic, and that Josue and DMS had "an uncle-nephew relationship throughout his childhood", but that it "gradually faded" after his father passed away 15 years ago. But according to EB the president's family say they don't know Josue Medina Vasquez Poulsen at all. Doesn't seem their reporters have spoken to Danilo Medina Sánchez himself though.

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In more directly election related news LLR has said that a SocDem, SocLib, Moderate government isn't broad enough (but he has to say that, I still think it's one of the two most likely end results), and all the Blue Bloc parties have urged him to drop his idea of a broad government and join them. Blue Bloc trying to squeeze the Moderates and implying a vote for LLR is a vote for Frederiksen will be a recurring theme in the campaign and this is a necessary first step for them before they start attacking. 

LLR has proposed cutting the extra income tax (known as the "top tax") for high earners but abolish the basic tax allowance for tax payers with the 5% highest incomes, which I suppose would be a decent compromise within the Blue Bloc (and for the SocLibs). 

Is the danish electorate supposed to care as to whether the husband of a politician is actually a relative of an unknown (to the public) and not that controversial foreign former politician?

The public is quite sensitive about politicians lying atm (see some of my first posts in this thread), so who knows. 

The investigation into the civil servants n the mink culling scandal has finished. Most notable that Frederiksen's right hand woman Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of State Barbara B. Bertelsen was let off with a warning and no sanctions, while the National Police Chief and the Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Environment have both been suspended and will face a disciplinary trial which could led to them being fired. The opposition is very unhappy about Bertelsen not getting sanctioned.