nelson
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Post by nelson on Aug 25, 2022 13:38:32 GMT
Voxmeter poll with the Conservatives 1.5 times bigger than the Liberals and the Moderates right below the 2% threshold. LA gaining 2.6 points, which could be a reward for saying no to Støjberg in government, many centre-right voters don't like the a good idea of ignoring the Realm Court verdict completely. The ex-DPP heavy candidate list seems to be harming DD a bit, they've been sliding in a couple of polls, or it may just be due to less media exposure. Social Democrats 25.1% SPP 7.6% Red Greens 7.5% The Alternative 1.2% Free Greens 0.5% Vegans / Green Alliance 0.3% Social Liberals 5.6% Moderates 1.9% Conservatives 16.5% Liberals 11.0% Liberal Alliance 4.9% Christian Democrats 0.6% Denmark Democrats 9.3% New Right 4.3% DPP 3.2% Epinion also have the Conservatives 1.5 times bigger than the Liberals, at 16.7% and 11.3% respectively so basically similar numbers as Voxmeter. But they have the Denmark Democrats substantially higher at 11.8% and LA lower at 3.1%. SocDems at 23.3%. The worst Liberal election result ever is the 10.5% they got in 1987, so if the campaign doesn't go their way we could see an all time low. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Aug 25, 2022 21:10:41 GMT
From the Epinion poll
Preferred PM
all voters
Mette Frederiksen 35%
Søren Pape Poulsen 31%
Jakob Ellemann-Jensen 11%
Don't know 23%
centre-right/right voters
Søren Pape Poulsen 54%
Jakob Ellemann-Jensen 25%
Mette Frederiksen 4%
Don't know 17%
all voters / all party leaders
Mette Frederiksen 22%
Søren Pape Poulsen 18%
Inger Støjberg (DD) 12%
Jakob Ellemann-Jensen 7%
Pia Olsen Dyhr (SPP) 6%
Lars Løkke Rasmussen (M) 6%
all others on 0-2%
Dont' know 18%
Dismal numbers for Ellemann.
...
The DD voters in the poll were asked what they voted in 2019; a roughly even split between DPP and the Liberals, and 11% SocDems.
Nationialist parties: 42.6%
DPP 33.5%
New Right 5.9%
Hard Line 3.2%
Liberal parties: 34%
Liberals 31.8%
Liberal Alliance 1.2%
Social Liberals 1.0%
Conservative parties: 4.2%
Conservatives 2.7%
Christian Democrats 1.5%
Social Democrats 11.4%
Didn't vote 7.8%
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Aug 27, 2022 14:10:59 GMT
The Alternative have offered the two (even) smaller Green parties seats on their list (without a merger) to avoid vote wasting, the Free Greens have dismissed the idea outright, while the Vegans/Green Alliance keep the door open.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 27, 2022 15:35:40 GMT
The Alternative have offered the two (even) smaller Green parties seats on their list (without a merger) to avoid vote wasting, the Free Greens have dismissed the idea outright, while the Vegans/Green Alliance keep the door open. These parties combine to about 2% between them. A shared list would make them a more serious option for sympathetic voters but not everyone polled as supporting a component party would do so when combined, so it might not make much of a difference to their total vote. It’s probably better for the Red Bloc that these parties win seats than waste votes, but The Alternative is a bit flaky, the Vegan/Green Alliance may be more so, and the Free Greens are outright hostile, so it would do more to block a Blue government than create a Red one. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Aug 27, 2022 17:17:22 GMT
The Alternative have offered the two (even) smaller Green parties seats on their list (without a merger) to avoid vote wasting, the Free Greens have dismissed the idea outright, while the Vegans/Green Alliance keep the door open. These parties combine to about 2% between them. A shared list would make them a more serious option for sympathetic voters but not everyone polled as supporting a component party would do so when combined, so it might not make much of a difference to their total vote. It’s probably better for the Red Bloc that these parties win seats than waste votes, but The Alternative is a bit flaky, the Vegan/Green Alliance may be more so, and the Free Greens are outright hostile, so it would do more to block a Blue government than create a Red one. Well, the Free Greens have marketed themselves as being more left wing than the Red Greens (claiming a post-capitalist society is a necessity to solve the climate crisis), more anti-racist than anyone else, and more hardcore and uncompromising on climate than The Alternative. It's not a project aimed at getting actual influence. It's very much a testimonial party allowing Sikandar Siddique to grandstand and Uffe Elbæk to pretend he is still relevant. The Vegans have promised the Greens that the new Green Alliance will have a centre-right economic policy and their common platforms speaks about market based solutions being the most important tool to solve the climate crisis. The Free Greens have dismissed them as "Liberals who don't like meat". But they're too radical on agriculture to really work with the Blue Bloc. The Alternative has incorporated the more delusional radical wing of the Vegans and the tiny climate fundamentalist breakaway Momentum (which has de facto be dissolved, but is officially just dormant), which has reinforced their more leftist profile, and there aren't that many of the "green engineers" and other private sector entrepreneurial types left, and that makes it harder to see a merger or a joint list with the Green Alliance. It's probably more sensible for the Green Alliance to try to build their own brand and hope to get in next time because with the SocLibs not necessarily prioritizing the environment there's more of a niche for Green Liberalism combined with a radical restructuring of the agricultural sector than for leftist greens, with both the Red Greens and SPP branding themselves as equally red and green. The Alternative is tainted by a lot of affairs related to both sexual harassment, hypocrisy on climate, love of expensive furniture & design, various silly exercises at gatherings, their "oversexed" party culture (or "gay men behaving badly") etc. It's arguably a ruined brand, too much associated with the excesses and hypocrisy of the creative class in Copenhagen and Århus, and with very limited appeal outside of it. While that may be unfair to some extent, I don't really see them having a path forward, though I suppose they could get in on tactical votes from the Red Greens, but more likely the Red Greens will try to squeeze their vote. I think that if the disunited Greens somehow unite and get in the utter lack of any kind of party discipline within this heterogenous lot (many of them with big egos and cranky personalities) would prevent them from playing any meaningful role, but since a Danish government only needs not to have a majority against it I assume they wouldn't actively block a SocDem government (apart from the Free Greens who'd likely consider it to be racist). |
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Post by rcronald on Aug 27, 2022 18:21:38 GMT
These parties combine to about 2% between them. A shared list would make them a more serious option for sympathetic voters but not everyone polled as supporting a component party would do so when combined, so it might not make much of a difference to their total vote. It’s probably better for the Red Bloc that these parties win seats than waste votes, but The Alternative is a bit flaky, the Vegan/Green Alliance may be more so, and the Free Greens are outright hostile, so it would do more to block a Blue government than create a Red one. Well, the Free Greens have marketed themselves as being more left wing than the Red Greens (claiming a post-capitalist society is a necessity to solve the climate crisis), more anti-racist than anyone else, and more hardcore and uncompromising on climate than The Alternative. It's not a project aimed at getting actual influence. It's very much a testimonial party allowing Sikandar Siddique to grandstand and Uffe Elbæk to pretend he is still relevant. The Vegans have promised the Greens that the new Green Alliance will have a centre-right economic policy and their common platforms speaks about market based solutions being the most important tool to solve the climate crisis. The Free Greens have dismissed them as "Liberals who don't like meat". But they're too radical on agriculture to really work with the Blue Bloc. The Alternative has incorporated the more delusional radical wing of the Vegans and the tiny climate fundamentalist breakaway Momentum (which has de facto be dissolved, but is officially just dormant), which has reinforced their more leftist profile, and there aren't that many of the "green engineers" and other private sector entrepreneurial types left, and that makes it harder to see a merger or a joint list with the Green Alliance. It's probably more sensible for the Green Alliance to try to built their own brand and hope to get in next time because with the SocLibs not necessarily prioritizing the environment there's more of a niche for Green Liberalism combined with a radical restructuring of the agricultural sector than for leftist greens, with both the Red Greens and SSP branding themselves as equally red and green. The Alternative is tainted by a lot of affairs related to both sexual harassment, hypocrisy on climate, love of expensive furniture & design, various silly exercises at gatherings, their "oversexed" party culture (or "gay men behaving badly") etc. It's arguably a ruined brand, too much associated with the excesses and hypocrisy of the creative class in Copenhagen and Århus, and with very limited appeal outside of it. While that may be unfair to some extent, I don't really see them having a path forward, though I suppose they could get in on tactical votes from the Red Greens, but more likely the Red Greens will try to squeeze their vote. I think that if the disunited Greens somehow unite and get in the utter lack of any kind of party discipline within this heterogenous lot (many of them with big egos and cranky personalities) would prevent them from playing any meaningful role, but since a Danish government only needs not to have a majority against it I assume they wouldn't actively block a SocDem government (apart from the Free Greens who'd likely consider it to be racist). The Free Greens seem more like a Green as in Islam rather then Green as in climate friendly lol |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Aug 27, 2022 19:13:11 GMT
The Free Greens seem more like a Green as in Islam rather then Green as in climate friendly lol Well, as I wrote in an earlier post: The Free Greens leader Sikandar Siddique is from one of the two Pakistani clans that have fought over the control of the Pakistani community in Copenhagen since the late 70s and his main appeal is as a boisterous champion of anti-racism labelling any criticism of Islamism or Muslim norms as racist. They are going to get some Environmentalist Green votes, but most of their electorate will likely be made up of Islamic Green voters. So a lot of their voters aren't going to give a toss about climate change or Socialism. Elbæk isn't running again and he's leaving politics entirely, so Siddique will be in full control. Also, climate policy researcher (and noblewoman) Theresa Scavenius leads an even more extremist splinter from The Alternative aptly named Momentum, not that they have much momentum but they're about as delusional as their British namesake. While serial entrepreneur and ex-MP for The Alternative René Gade closed his Happiness Party in January. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 27, 2022 19:16:06 GMT
The Free Greens seem more like a Green as in Islam rather then Green as in climate friendly lol Absolutely. It’s the people who said they were a ‘Green’ bloc in 2019 because they didn’t like Mette Frederiksen’s immigration policies. Their party leader is an ex-Social Democrat with links to ethnic/religious networks and who achieved some very against the grain increases in The Alternative vote shares in 2019 in heavily Muslim ‘ghettos’. Given the government has been pushed into a more active climate policy and there are parties pushing for further action, it’s only the issue of immigration that would lead to left wingers opposing any realistic centre-left government. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 27, 2022 19:31:24 GMT
The Vegans have promised the Greens that the new Green Alliance will have a centre-right economic policy and their common platforms speaks about market based solutions being the most important tool to solve the climate crisis. The Free Greens have dismissed them as "Liberals who don't like meat". But they're too radical on agriculture to really work with the Blue Bloc. It's probably more sensible for the Green Alliance to try to built their own brand and hope to get in next time because with the SocLibs not necessarily prioritizing the environment there's more of a niche for Green Liberalism combined with a radical restructuring of the agricultural sector than for leftist greens, with both the Red Greens and SSP branding themselves as equally red and green. Is there really a 2%+ niche for them? The Conservatives are still fairly green and I doubt there are many radical environmentalists who vote for them, while Radikale seem about as right wing as you can feasibly go on a platform of radical environmentalism and animal rights. I just don’t see who is supposed to vote for them. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Aug 30, 2022 14:20:18 GMT
The Free Greens have presented a climate package with 150 proposals that include a ban on short distance air travel incl. all domestic flights and flights to e.g. Hamburg and Stockholm, a mandatory 25 hour work week to limit economic activity, and a tax on "overconsumption", plus closure of energy intensive companies unless they agree to a "radical climate based restructuring". So I stand by mu description of them as a testimonial party. This isn't even something that can form the basis for negotiations with the centre-left.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Aug 30, 2022 14:59:35 GMT
Given the government has been pushed into a more active climate policy and there are parties pushing for further action, it’s only the issue of immigration that would lead to left wingers opposing any realistic centre-left government. The general impression among climate activists and on the far left is that the government has been all talk and not much action on climate and that the SocDems aren't much better on climate than the Liberals. The Red Green leadership will prefer a SocDem led government, but there isn't much enthusiasm for it among the grassroots. Also, what is usually translated as "immigration" in English is udlændingepolitik (litt. foreigner policy), which is a broader term where the treatment of poorly integrated ethnic minorities (those still viewed as foreign by the majority, primarily from " the Greater Middle East" and N & NE Africa) and how far the state can go in trying to push them towards mainstream/majority population norms and practices is usually more controversial than the immigration related part. While they're pro-refugees the left is more restrictive than the right (minus DPP) on labour migration. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Aug 30, 2022 18:18:11 GMT
The Free Greens refuse to cooperate with The Alternative ("they're a centrist party, we're a left wing party") and the Green Alliance ("a bourgeois party in favour of economic growth"). So as expected no joint list.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Aug 31, 2022 14:51:00 GMT
On Sunday public broadcaster DR holds a debate between the three PM candidates (focused on the cost of living crisis, healthcare and climate), quite unusual for an election that hasn't been called yet.
Frederiksen agreeing to participate in this must mean that she'll call the election before parliament opens (which the SocDem campaign activity and various populist proposals also clearly indicate). September 8 is the first debate on the government's budget and that seems likely, it's after their economic 2030 plan has been presented and the final votes on some crisis measures.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Aug 31, 2022 16:29:01 GMT
The government's budget was presented today under the headline "Tight and Responsible", apart from 2 billion DKK to subsidize those hit hardest by rising prices (not specified yet) there were no "presents" for anyone, except a marginal increase of funds allocated to healthcare, psychiatry and the elderly but nothing else.
A week ago Frederiksen promised higher wages to "welfare workers", especially nurses. An interference in the region's role as employers (employers and trade unions being able to negotiate wages and work conditions without outside interference is a core principle in the Nordic labour market model, and considered esp. important by SocDems, so an unprecedented move), and heavily criticized by the employer organizations fearing it will increase the wage pressure in the private sector. So a clear dissonance between that and an austere budget.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Aug 31, 2022 21:15:33 GMT
The Denmark Democrats have presented their business policy, although only in headlines, it notably includes easier access to hire foreign workers. A clear difference to DPP, which is the only Blue Bloc party that opposes large scale labour migration. Interesting choice, and one I think most of their potential voters will disagree with. Will open a line of attack for the SocDems and DPP.
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Post by greenhert on Aug 31, 2022 21:17:17 GMT
Wikipedia has not hinted at any early Danish election. I suspect that this election will in fact happen next year after all.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Aug 31, 2022 21:37:21 GMT
Wikipedia has not hinted at any early Danish election. I suspect that this election will in fact happen next year after all. Well, who cares about Wikipedia. No one among Danish political journalists or politicians outside of the SocDems (who ofc can't say it'll happen before it's called) doubt the election will happen this year, the question is whether it'll be called in September (before the opening of the Folketing) or after parliament reconvenes on 4 October (following a MoNC during the opening debate on 6 October). The campaign is already ongoing (incl. very much the governing SocDems), there is a tv-debate between the PM candidates on Sunday (and it's announced as such), the SocLibs will lose all credibility if they go back on their promise to force an election (and face a huge backlash from their membership and party organization where most wanted a judicial inquiry of Frederiksen's handling of the Mink scandal). |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Aug 31, 2022 22:09:01 GMT
Okay, I checked Wiki and they actually write that:
"On 2 July 2022, Sofie Carsten Nielsen, leader of the Danish Social Liberal Party, one of supporting parties of the government, encouraged incumbent prime minister Mette Frederiksen to set an election date before 4 October, after the report of the Commission of Inquiry into the Case of the Killing of Mink was published, criticising the government's handling of the Cluster 5 outbreak in November 2020.[4] Later the same day, Nielsen announced that she was ready to put forward a motion of no confidence if the prime minister refused to call early elections.[5]
On 31 August 2022, a TV debate was announced between Mette Frederiksen, Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, and Søren Pape Poulsen.[6] This is despite the fact that the date of the election has not yet been announced."
So don't know what you mean that there's nothing about an early election on Wiki, the only thing they've left out is that SCN has recently repeated that they will present a MoNC if Frederiksen doesn't call an election making it basically impossible for them to backtrack.
If the PM decides not to call an election following a MoNC the opposition can just agree to appoint a "neutral" PM (say, an older, well respected MP with no personal ambitions) whose only job would be to call an election (there is no formal requirement about the size of a Danish government apart from the office of PM, so you don't need to form an actual cabinet), so a MoNC by the SocLibs (which will ofc get the support of the Blue Bloc) means there'll be an election. It would be unheard off if Frederiksen doesn't call an election following a MoNC, but even if it happened it would be an empty gesture.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 5, 2022 16:04:27 GMT
nelson What causes the significantly different voting behaviour between north/east Jutland and south/west/central Jutland? Obviously the cities/larger towns play a part in the making the former redder, and religion/nationalism plays a part in making the latter bluer, but even then there’s some seemingly similar rural areas that vote wildly different that are not very far from each other.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 5, 2022 19:07:09 GMT
nelson What causes the significantly different voting behaviour between north/east Jutland and south/west/central Jutland? Obviously the cities/larger towns play a part in the making the former redder, and religion/nationalism plays a part in making the latter bluer, but even then there’s some seemingly similar rural areas that vote wildly different that are not very far from each other. It's the difference between the areas where the Liberals (Venstre) became a genuine people's party (with as much working class support as the SocDems) and the ones where they essentially went from being a farmers' party to a broad private sector dominated middle class party similar to provincial areas on the islands. Former: politically mobilized by itinerant Liberal agitators in the late 1860s and 1870s before railways and good roads existed, who set up fire & life insurance companies, newspapers, credit unions, saving unions etc. and helped form the local economy and community, lots of new towns along the railway and at road junctions and older towns being very small, industrialization mainly post-war and initiated by local craftsmen, shopkeepers and sons of famers, strong entrepreneurial culture, weak SocDems, relatively few people commuting to Århus and Ålborg. Latter: more decent roads, early railways, passenger ships between towns, old towns, old money, 19th century industrialization, older trade union tradition = stronger SocDems, influenced by the two main cities: Århus and Ålborg, entrepreneurial culture only slightly stronger than on the islands. Vendsyssel in the far north has more in common with the west and center, but still fairly early industrialization in e.g. Frederikshavn and above all with Ålborg (industrial city with strong working class culture, and a SocDem left wing bastion) dominating the whole region. Southern Jutland (the northern part of the Duchy of Slesvig) is a different story altogether since it wasn't part of Denmark during the liberal mobilization in the late 1800s and its political culture on the centre-right remained more paternalistic and conservative (the Liberals in these parts arguably never really became ideologically liberal outside of economics), industrialization also mostly post-war, strong entrepreneurial culture. Strong nationalist/patriotic tradition from the anti-Prussian "battle years" (1864-1920) under German rule. Distinct regional culture and identity (e.g. basically the only place in the country with children who can speak the local dialect). So historical patterns getting reproduced. |
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