Danish Parliamentary Election 2022

[nelson]

An update on the Denmark campaign after Sunday's PM debate.

The previous week has been dominated by Ellemann-Jensen publicly attacking Pape for tacking too far right on welfare, promising "un-financed" tax cuts and "handing the election to the SocDems", which caused a backlash from both LA and DD. The Libs have seemingly bounced back a point in the polls, so maybe it had a marginal effect.

Ekstra Bladet continued their coverage of Pape's "Caribbean connection" and it seems there's a bit more to it (thought it's likely still a dead end, but ). Firstly, his husband doesn't come from an elite background, his dad ran a small kiosk and was a part time taxi driver and his mum was a nurse, he managed to get into a prestigious elite school because his mother worked for the old guy who owned it and that led to his subsequent "class journey". In itself not scandalous ofc but not exactly in accordance with Pape's previous narrative. More importantly: In 2018 Pape and two other member of the centre-right government (one of them Inger Støjberg) met privately with a number of ministers in the Dominican government and had quite long discussions with them. It's unclear what they were discussing, but extremely unusual to privately meet with members of a foreign government without consulting with the Foreign Ministry and bypassing the usual diplomatic channels. Some speculation it might be refugee related (Støjberg was after all Minister of Integration). It's a bit odd why the Dominican government would set aside so much time to unofficial representatives from a small EU country they don't have much trade or cooperation with, esp. since Pape's husband seemingly don't have the connections that may otherwise have explained it.

The SocLibs openly said they're open to support a centre-right PM.

Frederiksen said she "won't rule out in advance" to cut the top tax on high incomes, which will make it harder for the Libs and Cons to rule out a grand coalition. The Red Greens were ofc very negative about this.

...

Mette Frederiksen arguably won the first PM debate, but less convincingly than expected and she appeared somewhat irritable and lacking in energy. Some observers think Pape won. Though none of them were particularly bad. She concentrated mostly on Pape (clearly trying to make him her main opponent as he his right wing positions scares more of her potential targets). Pape appeared well-prepared and was on the attack, but the moderator cut him off a couple of times. Ellemann at times got ignored, and that may be his faith in this campaign. Right before the Libs launched a proposal to cut the electricity tax to the EU minimum, which Ellemann of course spent time elaborating on. Frederiksen then just said "we can figure out something on that" and turned around and went back to attacking Pape on cost of living. The Libs have a much larger membership and a more professional organization than the Cons, but if they remain solidly below the Cons the media may simply not be that interesting in covering them since both Frederiksen and Pape have an interest in concentrating on each other. Ellemann and Pape notably refrained from attacking each other.

...

Regarding the election date people with normally excellent SocDem sources report that the government's plan is to call the election for early November using the autumn school holidays (17-23 October), where many regular employees also go on vacation, to break the campaign in two.

The last possible date to call the election would then be during the Parliament's opening debate on 6 October, where the SocLibs will table their motion of no confidence (but that would only be voted on after a so-called "special message" from the PM which Frederiksen could use to call the election).

Reasons:

a) Frederiksen want to avoid a MoNC because that allows her to stay in office and the opposition would then have to actively topple her after an election, with a result that may be quite murky and inconclusive they may find it hard to agree to do that. That trumps any advantage gained from squeezing the SocLib vote after a MoNC.

b) The SocDems expect the media will tire on the Mink scandal after the first two weeks and want to reset their campaign coverage after the break in (large parts of) the voters' interest during the autumn holidays, which would allow them to get the final one to two weeks focused on welfare and healthcare (issues where the SocDems are stronger than the centre-right).

Tuesday the 8th of November would then be the ideal election date with a full two week after the holidays.

[nelson]

Søren Pape Poulsen has apologized for saying "untruthful things" about his husband (without specifying which of his statements weren't true). The SocDem political spokesperson Rasmus Stoklund calls Pape "completely untrustworthy" for first saying that the whole thing was "a campaigns against him" and now admitting he has lied, and that Pape's apology "raises more questions than it answers". Among the more bizarre lies is that Pape has told a number of people Josue Medina is Jewish incl. in a radio interview and at a conference about anti-semitism, which is clearly not true. It's also clear that Pape met the Dominican president during the 2018 visit, not just cabinet members, and that he introduced a board member of the Danish Sports Confederation as Deputy Sports Minister, a title that doesn't exist. So along with the "my Jewish husband" thing you're left with the impression that Pape at times simply doesn't care that he's straying from the truth and may even get a kick out of telling fibs. So from being "tabloid nonsense" this might actually end up having an effect, at least it's clear the SocDems will now try to use it.  

The Conservatives are having their party conference this week-end, so that makes the timing even worse. 

...

After the meeting with the Dominican president and their Minister of Justice the Dominican Department of Justice sent out a press release with a photo of the four Danish ministers (incl. the fake one) and stating they had made an agreement about strengthening judicial cooperation between the two countries and "exchange best practice" on the crime prevention. That conflicts with Pape's statement that they only had informal talks. Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofoed has now asked Pape to clarify precisely what was agreed and whether the Dominicans were lying when they claimed there was an agreement. Danish ministers are not supposed to make agreements with foreign countries without consulting with the Foreign Ministry.

[jamie]

The election test has already been released - avisendanmark.dk/folketingsvalg (you can scroll to the bottom and choose Aalborg kommune if you want no local questions and you will probably need to Google translate each question)

My results:
82% - A (Social Democrats)
79% - SF (Socialist People's)
72% - DF (Danish People's)
70% - Ȧ (Alternative)
70% - Flag (Denmark Democrats)
69% - M (Moderates)
68% - Ø (Unity List)
65% - C (Conservative People's)
65% - Q (Free Greens)
65% - B (Social Liberals)
64% - K (Christian Democrats)
62% - D (New Right)
62% - LA (Liberal Alliance)

[jamie]

Voxmeter has preferred prime minister at 53% Frederiksen, 34% Pape, and 14% Ellemann-Jensen. Certainly better for Frederiksen than some other polls including their previous one. Interestingly there was no shift in voting intention which is still a 2% Blue Bloc lead. Hard to see both those figures holding by election day. 

[rcronald]

Sept 9, 2022 22:07:18 GMT jamie said:

The election test has already been released - avisendanmark.dk/folketingsvalg (you can scroll to the bottom and choose Aalborg kommune if you want no local questions and you will probably need to Google translate each question)

My results:
82% - A (Social Democrats)
79% - SF (Socialist People's)
72% - DF (Danish People's)
70% - Ȧ (Alternative)
70% - Flag (Denmark Democrats)
69% - M (Moderates)
68% - Ø (Unity List)
65% - C (Conservative People's)
65% - Q (Free Greens)
65% - B (Social Liberals)
64% - K (Christian Democrats)
62% - D (New Right)
62% - LA (Liberal Alliance)

My Results:
80% - O (DF)
76% - Æ (Danish Dems)
71% - D (New Right)
69% - I (Liberal Alliance)
67% - C (Conservative People)
66% - V (Venstre)
63% - A (SocDems)
61% - M (Moderates)
53% - K (ChristianDems)
53% - B (SocLibs)
52% - F (SF)
51% - Ø (Red-Green)
50% - Å (Alternative)
47% - Q (Islamic Green 😉)

My guess is that Æ would have come on top if I wasn’t very pro-teachers Union, which is not surprising as they seem to be a right wing party with a populist bend and no platform like Likud. lol

Edit: I’m surprised that O came with 80% as I’m strongly opposed to a burqa ban

[nelson]

Søren Pape Poulsen has announced he and Josue Medina Vasquez are getting divorced, guess all the untruths were too much of a liability. Let's see if that means Pape can leave it behind him or the whole thing has damaged his credibility too much. The Liberals had closed most of the gap to the Conservatives in the latest poll. 

[rcronald]

Sept 14, 2022 14:55:36 GMT nelson said:

Søren Pape Poulsen has announced he and Josue Medina Vasquez are getting divorced, guess all the untruths were too much of a liability. Let's see if that means Pape can leave it behind him or the whole thing has damaged his credibility too much. The Liberals had closed most of the gap to the Conservatives in the latest poll. 

I hope that he is in a decent mental state as discovering that your husband basically lied about his background to you and embarrassed you in front of the entire nation must be very traumatic. 😕

[nelson]

First Faroese poll since summer from spyr.fo. The two unionist parties that cooperate with the Danish SocDems and Liberals respectively look set to be reelected, even if 77-year old ex-Lawman (Premier) Edmund Joensen isn't running for the Union Party. The conservative and separatist People's Party has ran a populist campaign against the Russia sanctions (Russia being a major export market for the islands) and was expected to have a shot at a seat is in fourth, which must be a big disappointment for them. If those numbers are to be believed the Faroese campaign may be quite dull, and each of the Danish blocs can count on an extra seat.  

Of the smaller parties only the liberals in Progress and the evangelical fundis in the Centre Party intend to run, since only the Big 4 have a chance of winning a seat the smaller parties use Folketing elections to promote their party and introduce new candidates. 

Social Democrat 31.5%
Union Party 23.7%
Republic 19.1%
People's Party 16.5%

Progress 5.3%
Centre Party 3.9%

[nelson]

Uffe Elbæk, who founded first The Alternative and then the Free Greens, has rejoined The Alternative after failing to persuade the leadership of the Free Greens (which in practice means Sikandar Siddique) to run on a joint list. Both of the two parties now have two MPs. 

Meanwhile Green Alliance and The Alternative are close to an agreement about the former running candidates on The Alternative's list. So The Alternative may make it anyway, at least this gives them a chance. Denmark doesn't quite have the same tradition for tactical voting as Sweden, but some left wingers will likely switch to The Alternative if they're consistently close to the threshold. 

[jamie]

New Megafon poll on party leaders. Respondents could choose up to 3 leaders. 

Olsen Dyhr always does well on leadership questions (SF being the 'middle' Red party won't hurt) and is clearly a big asset to her party. Frederiksen does fine, including surprisingly better on trust than sympathy when most leaders do worse. Pape used to be out ahead but has taken a hit after his recent scandals. Vanopslagh does very well despite leading one of the smaller parties. Stojberg also does reasonably well, suggesting her impeachment hasn't done too much damage among Blue voters. Vermund's ratings aren't dire, but its pretty clear she's not very popular even among Blue voters yet. Carsten Nielsen's numbers are awful (her 'woke centrism' alienates everyone) while those Messerschmidt numbers are truly dire and suggest DF's recent struggles aren't just down to better competition. Nobody knows who the 3 below-threshold party leaders are, and given the Alternative are making a play for tactical votes (with the other Red parties tacit acceptance) you'd hope for their sake that the public realise they still exist. 

Sympathetic:
38% - Pia Olsen Dyhr (SF)
35% - Søren Pape Poulsen (KF)
30% - Mette Frederiksen (SD)
25% - Alex Vanopslagh (LA)
22% - Jakob Ellemann-Jensen (V)
22% - Inger Støjberg (DD)
22% - Mai Villadsen (EL)
19% - Lars Løkke Rasmussen (M)
8% - Pernille Vermund (NB)
8% - Sofie Carsten Nielsen (RV)
5% - Franciska Rosenkilde (Alt)
4% - Sikandar Siddique (FG)
4% - Marianne Karlsmose (KD)
4% - Morten Messerschmidt (DF)

Trustworthy:
32% - Mette Frederiksen (SD)
31% - Pia Olsen Dyhr (SF)
31% - Søren Pape Poulsen (KF)
30% - Alex Vanopslagh (LA)
26% - Jakob Ellemann-Jensen (V)
26% - Inger Støjberg (DD)
21% - Lars Løkke Rasmussen (M)
17% - Mai Villadsen (EL)
14% - Pernille Vermund (NB)
8% - Sofie Carsten Nielsen (RV)
4% - Morten Messerschmidt (DF)
4% - Franciska Rosenkilde (Alt)
3% - Marianne Karlsmose (KD)
2% - Sikandar Siddique (FG)

[nelson]

Sept 17, 2022 18:26:22 GMT jamie said:

Nobody knows who the 3 below-threshold party leaders are, and given the Alternative are making a play for tactical votes (with the other Red parties tacit acceptance) you'd hope for their sake that the public realise they still exist. 

That's definitely no true for Siddique, people know who he is after his many media stunts, they just don't like or trust him. I'm not convinced the Red bloc parties want The Alternative to survive, the Red Greens clearly want to squeeze them and the SocDems don't trust them.

[jamie]

Sept 17, 2022 18:32:58 GMT nelson said:

Sept 17, 2022 18:26:22 GMT jamie said:

Nobody knows who the 3 below-threshold party leaders are, and given the Alternative are making a play for tactical votes (with the other Red parties tacit acceptance) you'd hope for their sake that the public realise they still exist. 

That's definitely no true for Siddique, people know who he is after his many media stunts, they just don't like or trust him. I'm not convinced the Red bloc parties want The Alternative to survive, the Red Greens clearly want to squeeze them and the SocDems don't trust them.

I suspect he’s one of the lesser known leaders, though I agree he’s just not popular (you’d think at least some EL/RV/maybe SF voters would be sympathetic on the anti-racist angle). I don’t think it’s the right strategy, but some Red politicians have indicated on social media they wanted the 3 minor ‘Green’ parties to join forces in order to make the threshold and not waste votes (given The Alternative are polling at 1% I’d instead suggest squeezing them to prevent the risk of say 1.8% being wasted on them). 

[nelson]

Lars Løkke Rasmussen has just presented the Moderates' tax reform proposal, which didn't went well at all. The plan will increase taxes for a lot of ordinary wage earners and he was unable to answer relative basic questions about it on the press conference.

It seems both tone deaf to present a proposal that'll reduce disposable income for a key demographic in the middle of a cost of living crisis and really strange to even present a complex and highly specific tax plan when the party's  raison d'être is to facilitate broad cooperation and compromise between the parties. Løkke Rasmussen's main asset has been that many people still view him as a very capable and knowledgeable "machine room politician" so he can't afford to be perceived as incompetent or badly prepared. 

[nelson]

Green Alliance has collectively joined The Alternative, so an outright merger rather than a joint list. 

Free Greens refuse to do likewise and urge the The Alternative to dissolve itself and join the Free Greens. 

Minister of Foods Rasmus Prehn is being investigated for abuse of his ministerial credit card (this includes dinner with a mistress etc., so will resurface during the campaign). 

[nelson]

The Liberals are bigger than the Conservatives in new Voxmeter poll, for the. Clearly due to Pape's damaged credibility and the Caribbean tour, which the SocDems want a parliamentary inquiry of, LA seem to benefit from it. The Moderates below the threshold again. DPP near the threshold again after a string of 3-3.5% polls.

Changes from the last poll in parenthesis.

Red Greens 8.3 (+0.6)
SPP 8.4 (-0.7)
SocDems 24.2 (+0.9)

Free Greens 0.4 (-0.1)
The Alternative 0.8 (-0.6)
Green Alliance 0.3 (+0.2)

SocLibs 6.3 (+0.3)
Moderates 1.8 (-0.3)
Christian Democrats 1.3 (+0.8)

Liberals 13.9 (+0.1)
Conservatives 13.6 (-1.5)
LA 4.3 (+0.7)

DPP 2.1 (-0.8)
Denmark Democrats 9.3 (+0.3)
New Right 4.8 (-0.1)

Others 0.2 (+0.2)

[nelson]

Epinion poll has the SocLibs at 4.6% and 8 seats, half of their 2019 result and their worst polling numbers in this term. With a mere two weeks to go before the opening of parliament their threat of forcing an election looks likely to backfire, and the question is whether there's a breaking point that would make them reconsider, say if 2-3 more polls have them equally low or even lower. But since the Blue Bloc would ofc table a MoNC if the SocLibs don't, forcing them to vote on it anyway, I just can't see them going back on their word. Actively saving Frederiksen's government after threatening to topple it for months would utterly destroy their credibility and could harm the party more long term than having their parliamentary group cut in half. 

Two weeks ago the SocLibs declared they'd never support a government that continued working on establishing an asylum center in Rwanda, and it looks like some of their more "red-ish" voters have interpreted that as no support for a SocDem led government. The SocLibs also undermined their moral position by supporting EU "refugee processing centers" in Africa while being against "unilateral national action", most voters are either against the idea of processing asylum seekers in a poor and unattractive country or think it's a good, pragmatic solution, the number of people caring about whether it's done by the EU or not is likely tiny (although I've seen no polling on this).

[matureleft]

Sept 22, 2022 8:35:41 GMT nelson said:

Epinion poll has the SocLibs at 4.6% and 8 seats, half of their 2019 result and their worst polling numbers in this term. With a mere two weeks to go before the opening of parliament their threat of forcing an election looks likely to backfire, and the question is whether there's a breaking point that would make them reconsider, say if 2-3 more polls have them equally low or even lower. But since the Blue Bloc would ofc table a MoNC if the SocLibs don't, forcing them to vote on it anyway, I just can't see them going back on their word. Actively saving Frederiksen's government after threatening to topple it for months would utterly destroy their credibility and could harm the party more long term than having their parliamentary group cut in half. 

Two weeks ago the SocLibs declared they'd never support a government that continued working on establishing an asylum center in Rwanda, and it looks like some of their more "red-ish" voters have interpreted that as no support for a SocDem led government. The SocLibs also undermined their moral position by supporting EU "refugee processing centers" in Africa while being against "unilateral national action", most voters are either against the idea of processing asylum seekers in a poor and unattractive country or think it's a good, pragmatic solution, the number of people caring about whether it's done by the EU or not is likely tiny (although I've seen no polling on this).

I think I’m right in saying that the current Rwanda policy is that asylum seekers would be taken there for processing but, if they were granted asylum, they’d be entitled to come to Denmark? There appear to be discussions on giving successful asylum seekers the option of staying in Rwanda? 

[jamie]

Sept 22, 2022 8:35:41 GMT nelson said:

Epinion poll has the SocLibs at 4.6% and 8 seats, half of their 2019 result and their worst polling numbers in this term. With a mere two weeks to go before the opening of parliament their threat of forcing an election looks likely to backfire, and the question is whether there's a breaking point that would make them reconsider, say if 2-3 more polls have them equally low or even lower. But since the Blue Bloc would ofc table a MoNC if the SocLibs don't, forcing them to vote on it anyway, I just can't see them going back on their word. Actively saving Frederiksen's government after threatening to topple it for months would utterly destroy their credibility and could harm the party more long term than having their parliamentary group cut in half. 

Two weeks ago the SocLibs declared they'd never support a government that continued working on establishing an asylum center in Rwanda, 

Given they’re threatening to topple them over Rwanda as well and the government is still moving forward with it, they’d realistically have to back down on that as well. As you say, it would destroy their credibility (though forcing an election where they say they’d probably back Frederiksen but might back a Blue government thats majority would have to include DD and NB looks pretty ridiculous as well). 

[nelson]

Sept 22, 2022 10:10:58 GMT jamie said:

Sept 22, 2022 8:35:41 GMT nelson said:

Epinion poll has the SocLibs at 4.6% and 8 seats, half of their 2019 result and their worst polling numbers in this term. With a mere two weeks to go before the opening of parliament their threat of forcing an election looks likely to backfire, and the question is whether there's a breaking point that would make them reconsider, say if 2-3 more polls have them equally low or even lower. But since the Blue Bloc would ofc table a MoNC if the SocLibs don't, forcing them to vote on it anyway, I just can't see them going back on their word. Actively saving Frederiksen's government after threatening to topple it for months would utterly destroy their credibility and could harm the party more long term than having their parliamentary group cut in half. 

Two weeks ago the SocLibs declared they'd never support a government that continued working on establishing an asylum center in Rwanda, 

Given they’re threatening to topple them over Rwanda as well and the government is still moving forward with it, they’d realistically have to back down on that as well. As you say, it would destroy their credibility (though forcing an election where they say they’d probably back Frederiksen but might back a Blue government thats majority would have to include DD and NB looks pretty ridiculous as well). 

Well, they don't threaten to topple the government over the Rwanda-plan, but say they won't support any government after the election that continue with the Rwanda-plan. Granted that distinction would make them look a bit silly if they agree to save the government until an election next year, but it'll be the least of their credibility problems in that scenario. 

[nelson]

Sept 22, 2022 9:08:56 GMT matureleft said:

Sept 22, 2022 8:35:41 GMT nelson said:

Epinion poll has the SocLibs at 4.6% and 8 seats, half of their 2019 result and their worst polling numbers in this term. With a mere two weeks to go before the opening of parliament their threat of forcing an election looks likely to backfire, and the question is whether there's a breaking point that would make them reconsider, say if 2-3 more polls have them equally low or even lower. But since the Blue Bloc would ofc table a MoNC if the SocLibs don't, forcing them to vote on it anyway, I just can't see them going back on their word. Actively saving Frederiksen's government after threatening to topple it for months would utterly destroy their credibility and could harm the party more long term than having their parliamentary group cut in half. 

Two weeks ago the SocLibs declared they'd never support a government that continued working on establishing an asylum center in Rwanda, and it looks like some of their more "red-ish" voters have interpreted that as no support for a SocDem led government. The SocLibs also undermined their moral position by supporting EU "refugee processing centers" in Africa while being against "unilateral national action", most voters are either against the idea of processing asylum seekers in a poor and unattractive country or think it's a good, pragmatic solution, the number of people caring about whether it's done by the EU or not is likely tiny (although I've seen no polling on this).

I think I’m right in saying that the current Rwanda policy is that asylum seekers would be taken there for processing but, if they were granted asylum, they’d be entitled to come to Denmark? There appear to be discussions on giving successful asylum seekers the option of staying in Rwanda? 

yes to the former, haven't heard or read the latter.