Danish Parliamentary Election 2022

[nelson]

The legal assessment of Mette Frederiksen's role in the Mink scandal by a private law firm paid for by a collection set up by the New Right concludes that there is basis for bringing Frederiksen before a Realm Court. 

Of course the SocDems will claim that such an inquiry was always likely to show what the New Right wanted it to show, but several other Blue Bloc parties, incl. the Conservatives, now say Frederiksen should be charged if the Blue Bloc wins the election. 

[nelson]

A bit cynical, but the (presumably Russian) sabotage of Nord Stream and the subsequent raising of the official national "threat level" is good news for Frederiksen, she excels at crisis management and will most likely benefit from a significant rally 'round the flag effect.

...

In other news:

a) the Liberals are now very clearly ahead of the Conservatives in the latest polls.
b) the SocDems have proposed cutting master degrees (candidatus/candidata) from 2 to 1 year, which angers lefty urban academics (who'll never vote for the right anyway), but has appeal to provincial swing voters asa cost cutting and anti-academia proposal. 
c) Lars Løkke Rasmussen has said the Moderates can't back Frederiksen for PM unless she agrees to a legal investigation of her role in the Mink Scandal. which basically rule out a coalition between the two parties. 
d) the SocDem have in yet another populist move reheated old Liberal anti-bureaucracy/fewer rules (abolish one rule every time a new one is introduced) and proposed cutting administrative employees and transferring the funds to so-called "warm hands" (welfare workers in healthcare, elderly care etc.). No details on how to do it ofc.
d) broad agreements about psychiatry and assistance to business owners and homeowners with high energy costs, the latter quite unimpressive, to say the least. 

[nelson]

Frederiksen did not call the election during her opening speech, so she'll have to do it either tomorrow or early in the opening debate on Thursday. 

The latest Gallup has the Conservatives with a one point lead over the Liberals, so Pape is not out of the race for Blue Bloc PM. 

Climate researcher, grifter and noblewoman Theresa Scavenius has merged her micro party Momentum into The Alternative, leaving only the Free Greens outside of the Green "mother party". 

[finsobruce]

Oct 4, 2022 13:35:25 GMT nelson said:

Frederiksen did not call the election during her opening speech, so she'll have to do it either tomorrow or early in the opening debate on Thursday. 

The latest Gallup has the Conservatives with a one point lead over the Liberals, so Pape is not out of the race for Blue Bloc PM. 

Climate researcher, grifter and noblewoman Theresa Scavenius has merged her micro party Momentum into The Alternative, leaving only the Free Greens outside of the Green "mother party". 

Any relation of the keeper of the Rigsarkiv of Viborg?

[nelson]

The election has - at long last - been officially called. It'll be held Tuesday the 1st of November. 

The poll expires on 31 October at 12:00 am, just a day early, so I see no need to reset it. 

[nelson]

Mette Frederiksen has tried playing the same card Lars Løkke Rasmussen almost won by in 2019, saying the SocDems want a broad government across the aisles with both red and blue parties in it (but not including the SocLibs).

Few commentators believe she means it, but it fits her "stability in a time of crisis" narrative and puts the moderate part of the Blue Bloc (esp. the Liberals) under pressure. 

[jamie]

Couple of polls done yesterday. Both show SD gaining, KF down (again), DF on the threshold. Both pollsters show their first Red Bloc leads for months, so a good start for the government.

[jamie]

Obviously best part of a month to go, but some shifts can be observed in the governments vote from Epinion polling which has a 2% Red plurality (these patterns are broadly reflected in their previous polling as well). The SD lose 2.5% to Blue parties (DD and KF) while gaining 2.2% back (DF and V). Meanwhile, they lose 1.5% to Red parties (SF) while gaining 3% back (EL, RV and SF). I’m not sure the Blue vote swapping will have a demographic/geographic pattern, but the Red vote swapping suggests a good election in Copenhagen and Aarhus. The leading party cannibalising the vote of its supporting parties is of course not a new phenomena.

[jamie]

Another election quiz (imo better than the last one I posted). 25 questions and gives top 6 candidates in a given constituency. I got mostly SD in the mid 80s.

www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/folketingsvalg/kandidattest

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 8, 2022 15:46:41 GMT jamie said:

Another election quiz (imo better than the last one I posted). 25 questions and gives top 6 candidates in a given constituency. I got mostly SD in the mid 80s.

www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/folketingsvalg/kandidattest

I got mostly 'New Citizens' in the 80s - not sure who they are. I had one 'Left' at 80% (but presumably Venstre, so not actually left) and a Conservative at 77%.
Obviously I had to use the English translation. When invited to select a municipality I tried in vain to find Copenhagen so I selected the municipality of 'Cervical Nose'

[jamie]

Oct 8, 2022 16:08:18 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I got mostly 'New Citizens' in the 80s - not sure who they are. I had one 'Left' at 80% (but presumably Venstre, so not actually left) and a Conservative at 77%.
Obviously I had to use the English translation. When invited to select a municipality I tried in vain to find Copenhagen so I selected the municipality of 'Cervical Nose'

‘New Citizens’ are ‘New Right’, essentially a properly economically right wing version of the Danish People’s Party. For the municipalities, you can use Frederiksberg for Copenhagen (central), while Ballerup can be used for Greater Copenhagen. 

[aargauer]

Depending on where I pick New citizens or conservatives are in 1st (each around 80%, and liberal alliance are not far behind at 75-80).

[Merseymike]

A mix of SPP/GL, the Alternative and Red-Greens dependent on place.

[nelson]

Liberal Alliance has changed their mind on Inger Støjberg being in the next government and no longer demand that she shows remorse about her conduct in the case she was convicted for at the Realm Court. That makes forming a Blue Bloc government far easier, and Liberals/Conservatives/DenmarkDemocrats is now the most likely centre-right government. 

The Faroese government has requested to move their voting day to 31 October as 1 November is the Faroese remembrance day for those who have died at sea, which will almost certainly be granted. The Faroese results will still probably not be publicized before the Danish and Greenlandic votes have been counted. 

Søren Pape Poulsen has been heavily criticized by Greenlandic politicians and debaters, plus various "progressive" and activist types in Denmark after it was revealed he has called Greenland "Africa on ice" in a meeting with American diplomats. He has doubled down by replying that "there's nothing wrong with being African", which is true but perhaps a bit tone deaf.  

EDIT: The context for the Greenland remark was the massive problems with incest and other forms of sexual abuse in Greenland, where Pape intended to say Greenland is still a developing country in many ways. 

[nelson]

The new Megafon poll has the Moderates on 6.5% and 12 seats, Red Bloc 83 and Blue Bloc 80. Unless the Moderates start collapsing government formation could become extremely tricky. Meanwhile LA keep gaining votes from the Conservatives (at a mere 10.5% in the poll), which also complicates things. Still a long way to go, but not looking good. 

[jamie]

Conservative leader Pape has fallen into 3rd place on preferred prime minister, while Frederiksen looks to be consistently above 50% in the 3-way matchup.

[nelson]

Oct 10, 2022 13:20:18 GMT jamie said:

Conservative leader Pape has fallen into 3rd place on preferred prime minister, while Frederiksen looks to be consistently above 50% in the 3-way matchup.

Observers also agree Ellemann-Jensen clearly won the PM debate yesterday, ahead of Frederiksen and with Pape doing badly. But the problem with Ellemann-Jensen emerging as the most popular PM candidate on the centre-right is that he's both bad fit for uniting ideologically liberal and right wing populist/nationalist parties and not a natural "team leader" type, plus the strained relationship between him and Støjberg. 

Pape is a much better antagonist for the SocDems than milquetoast Ellemann-Jensen, so it's arguably bad news for them and might slow down (or end) their momentum, but on the other hand Pape was more likely to actually being able to form a functioning Blue Bloc government, so it's an advantage for them post-election. 

I think a lot of the support for the Moderates is due to many centre-right voters simply thinking neither Pape nor Ellemann-Jensen are PM material and hoping Løkke Rasmussen can stage a comeback as PM, the problem with that idea is none of the other centre-right parties are remotely interested in it. 

[nelson]

Public broadcaster DR has interviewed a number of chairmen for SocDem constituency chapters and other local leaders, and predictably the vast majority of them think going into government with the Blue Bloc is a really bad idea, instead preferring a left/centre government with the Red-Greens, SPP, the SocLibs and/or the Moderates (the latter is ofc completely unrealistic). Frederiksen maintains she wants to include Blue Bloc parties in the government. 

[nelson]

I don't put too much stock in the polls this far out, but the new YouGov in tabloid BT is somewhat funny. 

Denmark Democrats 10.6
Liberals 10.5
Conservatives 10.4

It has the SocDems at 30.6%

Also notable that there has recently been a single poll with The Alternative above the threshold (they're on 1.7 in this one), so they definitely have a chance now.

The SocDems moving right on economics and promising tax cuts and a broad government will open up some space to their left (which is part of their strategic calculation, losing votes to their left isn't really a problem for them, it worked in 2019 with foreigner policy and may well work with economics this time).  

Frederiksen should send a big thank you to whoever blew up North Stream it really changed the tone of this campaign and played into her whole perfect crisis manager and "Me or Chaos" narrative, if I didn't know Denmark doesn't have submarines anymore I'd have almost suspect the government of having it blown up just in time for the election (Denmark was always against the pipeline being built).

Also notable that there has recently been a single poll with The Alternative above the threshold (they're on 1.7 in this one), so they definitely have a chance now. The SocDems moving right on economics and promising tax cuts and a broad government will open up some space to their left (which is part of their strategic calculation, losing votes to their left isn't really a problem for them, it worked in 2019 with foreigner policy and may well work with economics this time).

[greenhert]

Most recent opinion poll:

Red Bloc total: 50.1% (including the Alternative and Independent Greens)
Blue Bloc total: 49.9% (including the Christian Democrats)