nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Oct 12, 2022 19:56:09 GMT
Most recent opinion poll: Red Bloc total: 50.1% (including the Alternative and Independent Greens) Blue Bloc total: 49.9% (including the Christian Democrats) Utterly pointless numbers, the Moderates aren't part of the blocs, that's their whole raison d'être (and you also can't include the Free Greens in the Red Bloc since they'd never back Frederiksen for PM, but that's a detail). |
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Oct 12, 2022 20:06:30 GMT
Most recent opinion poll: Red Bloc total: 50.1% (including the Alternative and Independent Greens) Blue Bloc total: 49.9% (including the Christian Democrats) Utterly pointless numbers, the Moderates aren't part of the blocs, that's their whole raison d'être (and you also can't include the Free Greens in the Red Bloc since they'd never back Frederiksen for PM, but that's a detail). True, although I suspect that when push comes to shove, Lars Lokke Rasmussen's Moderates are likely to give confidence and supply to a Venstre-led government. |
|
|
|
Post by ibfc on Oct 12, 2022 20:10:37 GMT
Utterly pointless numbers, the Moderates aren't part of the blocs, that's their whole raison d'être (and you also can't include the Free Greens in the Red Bloc since they'd never back Frederiksen for PM, but that's a detail). True, although I suspect that when push comes to shove, Lars Lokke Rasmussen's Moderates are likely to give confidence and supply to a Venstre-led government. Why do you say that when that would defeat the whole purpose of their existence? |
|
ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,099
Member is Online
|
Post by ilerda on Oct 12, 2022 21:01:41 GMT
True, although I suspect that when push comes to shove, Lars Lokke Rasmussen's Moderates are likely to give confidence and supply to a Venstre-led government. Why do you say that when that would defeat the whole purpose of their existence? Is the whole purpose of their existence not just to give Rasmussen a profile and a shot at keeping his seat? |
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Oct 13, 2022 6:37:37 GMT
Why do you say that when that would defeat the whole purpose of their existence? Is the whole purpose of their existence not just to give Rasmussen a profile and a shot at keeping his seat? Keeping his seat and having a profile is almost certainly not enough anymore and was always the bare minimum with the broad government idea being a vehicle for getting back into office (even if he genuinely dislikes the outsized influence of right wing populists). His main motivation for setting up the party seems to be that he felt mid 50s was too early to retire and wanted to finish his career on a level he felt was suitable for a man of his stature, and that's not being an MP. You could say the party was set up to achieve two goals: a) to force the traditional governing parties ("the four old parties") to establish a grand coalition and keep both right wing populists and leftists marginalized. b) to secure that Lars Løkke Rasmussen gets to become minister again. A confidence and supply deal with the Blue Bloc and will achieve neither. LLR has suggested a broad government could include either of the SocDems, the SocLibs (Radikale), the Liberals (Venstre), the Conservatives and Liberal Alliance. Basically the "four old parties" (all formed before 1920) + the only other non-populist centre-right party. The SocDems and LA are too far apart ideologically, so LA won't be in any grand coalition, and the SocDems, Libs and Cons all don't want Radikale to be in government because the party has views on a number of issues (incl. immigration and law & order) that are out of the mainstream and because their voters dislike the party (Liberal commentator Jarl Cordua recently used the phrase that Radikale had become "leprous" for the three other old parties). The main problem LLR has is that if forced to form a grand coalition the SocDems, Libs and Cons would all prefer to form it with each other rather than let him (or any other minor party) in, and the right wing populist parties distrust him and probably won't back a centre-right government he's part of. That leaves a SocDem led government as his only chance of getting into office and despite what he officially says about a judicial inquiry of Frederiksen's role in the Mink Scandal many observers believe he may be for sale for a Foreign Minister title and getting to be EU commissioner next time the post is available, that would secure a "respectable" end to his political career. That is speculation ofc, but the one party that has to be in a broad government is the SocDems, because otherwise it won't be considered broad, and the one party that's likely to give LLR a prestigious portfolio (or any portfolio really..) is the SocDems. So if all the main parties decline to form a broad government it's far more likely LLR will end up in a coalition with the SocDems than propping up a centre-right government that'll give him nothing and rely on support from the populist right. LLR's actual favourite government is likely SocDems, Liberals, SocLibs and Moderates with Ellemann-Jensen as PM, but the Liberals would lose lots of votes to the Conservatives if they did that and Frederiksen has zero reason to enter a government not led by her, so he'll almost certainly have to settle for less. In the end predicting what he'll do depends on whether you think his party is primarily an ego-project and he'll end up being "for sale", or you think he'll prefer to "force" SocDems, Libs and Cons to form a grand coalition he's not part of knowing it'll be fairly short-lived and there'll be new elections in a couple of years at which point the broad government idea will have little appeal as it has already been tried and all the participants will decline to continue it. Two years as leader of a largely irrelevant minor party that risks falling below the threshold next time when their gimmick will have lost its effect doesn't seem all that attractive to a former PM looking for a distinguished end to his career. Of course if the Moderates keep gaining and approach 10% that calculation may change, but that seems unlikely. One thing is certain, LLR controls the party 100% and can do whatever he wants with it. |
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Oct 14, 2022 9:54:42 GMT
The former head of the Danish Military Intelligence Lars Findsen has published his memoirs, which may not be good new for the SocDems. In "The spy chief - memoirs from cell 18" he accuses former Minister of Defence Trine Bramsen of being behind his removal in 2020 and the subsequent investigation of him (where he was held in custody in the cell the title refers to) and also say Frederiksen's right hand woman the Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of State Barbara Bertelsen helped undermine and discredit him. Some political journalists see this as a potential "game changer", I'm not convinced. So far the voters seem to ignore the various scandals and affairs and focus on policy. I've mentioned the affair in the Denmark thread before and you should be able to find it using the search function, and it's not an affair those details I've been particularly interested in so I'm going to try to explain it, but it's all very unusual and very odd and e.g. the prominent former law professor Eva Smith (from the Hækkerup family, which is a SocDem political dynasty and daughter of a Minister of Justice) has claimed the sequence of events only makes sense if Findsen had "a high raking personal enemy within the system". Findsen had a long career as e.g. Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Defence and head of the Police Intelligence Service before he took over Military Intelligence (IIRC as the first civilian to do so).
One poll now has The Alternative on 2.4%, and for every poll above the threshold more voters. Climate is the no. 1 issue for the voters, ahead of health, (I'm a bit surprised that the priorities are so traditional", I'd have expected cost of living and security to be higher up, and I think many of the parties had similar expectations).
|
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Oct 14, 2022 16:10:14 GMT
Inger Støjberg has started calling the Moderates for "The Alternative in suits" and is warning against voting for them "if you want a centre-right government", this is after more reporting of meetings between Frederiksen and LLR. So clearly no love lost between Støjberg and her former chairman.
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,056 
|
Post by jamie on Oct 17, 2022 13:36:18 GMT
The New Right have apparently come out for the right to discriminate against Jewish elderly care workers. This is not exactly in tune with their recent attempts to look like a mainstream Blue party (and all the Blue leaders talking about how united they are).
|
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Oct 17, 2022 14:05:57 GMT
The New Right have apparently come out for the right to discriminate against Jewish elderly care workers. This is not exactly in tune with their recent attempts to look like a mainstream Blue party (and all the Blue leaders talking about how united they are). That's rather twisted, it's about religious symbols in general. There was a debate around whether the elderly should be able to reject care workers they didn't feel comfortable with regardless of reason (including hijab), the Liberals and LA first said you should be able to reject a care worker wearing a hijab and then backtracked. NB has strong contacts with Zionist organizations (and some of their leading members have views on Israel-Palestine well to the right of Likud) and prominent Jewish members so being anti-Jewish is one of the last things you could accuse them of. This is something that will be perceived as far less radical in a Danish context than in a British. ... NB: "If the elderly for some reason doesn't want to receive assistance from a care worker who is wearing a headscarf or in other ways has a demeanour that makes the elderly (person) uncomfortable, the elderly has the right to say no. The municipality will then in such cases not necessarily have the duty to send someone else. The municipalities neither can nor should be obligated to sort their employees after religious or sexual orientation, but can and should set general standards requiring their employees to behave in a religiously neutral way when meeting the citizens. The elderly person will then have to see if it is possible to find a care worker on the private market that fulfills the elderly's requirement and expectations. Thankfully elderly care is an area where the money follow the citizen, thus giving the individual a free choice". That's not something that would be particularly controversial among Blue Bloc voters, and while lefty journalists will try to troll about Jews and gay people it's obviously an anti-Muslim proposal since the number of elderly Danes that would refuse care from someone wearing a Jewish symbol is minuscule (and if such a person existed it would most likely be an elderly Arab, not a group NB cater to). |
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,056
|
Post by jamie on Oct 17, 2022 14:55:33 GMT
nelson I was getting the original quotes from Berlingske ( www.berlingske.dk/samfund/nye-borgerlige-aeldre-skal-kunne-afvise-baade-homoseksuelle-og-joediske ). They are obviously not shouting it loud and proud, but arguing you have the right to discriminate against people in employment based on identity is a pretty radical proposal these days in a country like Denmark. The headscarves debate is mainstream because it’s about what you wear and a controversial religious group, but when you’re asked about discriminating against people for simply being gay or Jewish and don’t immediately say no, then I think that’s pretty right wing. Not something that will offend too many NB voters, but probably not something the median Danish voter believes either.
|
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Oct 19, 2022 7:12:34 GMT
The new Voxmeter poll has the Moderates as the 3rd largest party on 9.2%, with the Conservatives all the way down to 7.7% only marginally ahead of the Denmark Democrats and Red Greens. Pape is no longer seen as a realistic PM candidate despite being preferred by the populist parties and the Conservative may end up half the size of the Liberals.
Just one poll and Voxmeter almost certainly underestimate the right wing/populist vote, but we're in for some complex negotiations if the Moderates end up that big (or even manage to pass the symbolic double digits line).
SocDems 25.0
Liberals 14.7
Moderates 9.2
SPP 9.1
Conservatives 7.7
Denmark Democrats 7.4
Red Greens 7.4
|
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Oct 21, 2022 12:04:41 GMT
Strong attacks on LLR from the Liberals after he doubled down on the need for a broad government to include the SocDems.
The Red Greens, SPP, The Alternative and Radikale have agreed to demand a binding nature law within the first year of a new government in return for supporting Frederiksen, which - like the Climate Law - sets binding targets for biodiversity and recognize the country has a nature crisis". The four parties want the Biodiversity Council to draft a proposal that will oblige Denmark to live up to EU's goal of 30% protected nature of which 10% are "strictly protected" including both rural and urban areas. With c. 62% agricultural land that's impossible to accomplish without restricting farming, and will cost some jobs, so unpopular among many SocDems.
Symbolically the agreement includes The Alternative in the Red Bloc and the government's prospective confidence and supply partners.
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 21, 2022 18:58:09 GMT
Is there any suggestion of where would be targeted for removal of agriculture, or is it just a number for now?
|
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Oct 21, 2022 19:32:24 GMT
Is there any suggestion of where would be targeted for removal of agriculture, or is it just a number for now? just a number |
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Oct 22, 2022 8:05:24 GMT
Epinion poll has the Moderates on 9.8% and 18 seats, getting close to passing the double digit line, which may put LLR in play as PM, other polls show him as the most popular (or rather least unpopular) centre-right PM candidate with nearly twice the support of Ellemann-Jensen.
Meanwhile the Conservatives are down to 7%, only marginally above the 6.6% they got in 2019 and 10 points below their best pre-campaign polls, this campaign has been an utter disaster for Søren Pape and he may not survive as party leader (if they end up actually losing votes he'll have to resign, but anything below 10% will be critical for him).
|
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Oct 22, 2022 9:08:35 GMT
Four days ago Ellemann-Jensen and Pape held a much hyped joint press conference in front of the entrance to Kastellet (the historic fortification where the HQs for the Commandant of Copenhagen and the Military Intelligence are located) about the Lars Findsen case which went completely off the rails with Pape getting flustered when asked about the use of a former criminal named Ahmed Samsam as an agent for Danish intelligence services in Syria. Samsam got an 8-year sentence in Spain in 2018 for terrorism and IS membership. The two Blue Bloc leader switched between scolding the journalists and trying to evade the questions, and they ended up promising to investigate the former centre-right government's role in the Samsam case. The Findsen affair has subsequently been considered dead as campaign material by the Blue Bloc according to pundits and journalists with good sources in the Liberals.
In other news the newsletter Frihedsbrevet (the Liberty Letter) run by investigative journalist Mads Brügger had a convicted young fraudster (known as the Champagne Boy) call the political parties and offer them donations in excess of the legal minimum, as expected most of them took the bait and described how he should split the donations on multiple accounts, that the parties do this is old news and likely wouldn't have caused much ado (apart from a few laughs about them not recognizing who they were talking to). More remarkable the leader of the New Right Pernille Vermund got into a fight with her own political spokesperson Mette Thiesen, accusing Thiesen of lying when she said (in a recorded conversation) that Vermund had accepted such donations many times before. Thiesen then tried to walk it back by saying she was just running her mouth and talking about things she didn't know anything about, but since she described the accounting rules in some detail that didn't really convince anyone. As a result New Right got nearly all the bad media exposure from something that would otherwise have died down quickly because "they all do it".
Meanwhile Inger Støjberg, who has so far been remarkably low energy during the campaign, has tried launching herself as a converted sinner on centralisation saying she regrets her role in the municipal reform, the police reform and the judicial reform implemented by Liberal led governments and promising to work for reopening local police stations, district courts and army barracks and "opening up" the municipal reform. It's doubtful if many voters will actually believe that the merged municipalities will be broken up, but with rearmament on the agenda army barracks may be another matter, and local police stations may also sound credible to some.
In general this campaign is not going well for the Blue Bloc and unless Lars Løkke Rasmussen implodes the chance of a Blue Bloc government has nearly evaporated.
There are some openings for attacking the government:
- A tv-documentary showed (once again) dreadful conditions in elderly care, and the case was Køge south of Copenhagen were SocDem deputy leader Marie Stærke is Mayor and showing the problem being morale and attitudes more than funding (as the left usually claim), but the problem for the Blue Bloc is that Liberal led municipalities likely aren't any better and new cases will likely emerge.
- The dismal state of the hospitals with long waiting lists, large scale exodus of nurses to the private sector and recruitment problems, but so far Lars Løkke - with his detailed knowledge of the issue - is the only one that has come up with a credible plan for reorganizing the public healthcare system,
But in general it looks hard to see what they can come up with that won't either backfire vs. the Red Bloc or help the Moderates.
|
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Oct 22, 2022 11:39:22 GMT
Both of the two left-nationalist North Atlantic parties (IA in Greenland and Republic on the Faroe Islands) have repeated their usual line about picking whoever will do the most for their countries. But in an usual move Aaja Chemnitz Larsen from IA has stated that she'll prefer LLR to Frederiksen as he was far more responsive to Greenlandic needs and wishes when PM, and would prefer a government that includes the Moderates to a Red Bloc based one. So that's one less seat for the Red Bloc.
When counting the four North Atlantic seats it's worth remembering that they should not be divided between the two blocs as journalists usually do, but in four broad categories.
Left nationalists: IA, Republic, will support whoever gives them the best offer and always prioritize separatism over solidarity with the Danish left
SocDems: Siumut and the Equality Party (Faroese SocDems), will align with the SocDems, the Faroese automatically and Siumut after making some fuss
Unionist centre-right: Union Party (FO) will align with the Liberals, the Democrats (GL) have the Social Liberals as their sister party, but would likely align with the Moderates as the bigger party (but they're very unlikely to get a seat)
Separatist centre-right: People's Party (FO) traditionally align with the Conservatives and will back the Blue Bloc
Not including small parties with no chance of getting a seat, the North Atlantic seats are projected to go to IA, Siumut, the Union Party and the Equality Party, and only the 2nd Faroese seat currently held by the Union Party has any real (as in more than 5%) chance of switching.
Lars Løkke Rasmussen has a Faroese wife (from a separatist family) and has always been very interested in - and unusually knowledgable about - the North Atlantic island nations compared to the average Danish politician, so he has some goodwill in both countries.
|
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Oct 25, 2022 7:39:56 GMT
The Moderates at 11.5% in the new Voxmeter, that's the sort of numbers that may tempt LLR to launch himself as a compromise candidate for PM. He is only 1.7 point behind his old party the Liberals at 13.2%, and it's no longer crazy to think he may end up in second place (though still unlikely). The Conservatives now below their 2019 result (6% vs. 6.6%), and Pape is now fighting for his political life after one of most spectacular collapses in recent Danish political history (though DPP's collapse during the previous campaign was probably still more surprising).
EDIT: The SocLibs (Radikale) are at 3.8%, their worst result in a Voxmeter poll in 1.5 years, and SPP it approaching double digits at 9.6%. DPP and The Alternative both below the threshold.
|
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Oct 25, 2022 7:57:58 GMT
The Moderates at 11.5% in the new Voxmeter, that's the sort of numbers that may tempt LLR to launch himself as a compromise candidate for PM. He is only 1.7 point behind his old party the Liberals at 13.2%, and it's no longer crazy to think he may end up in second place (though still unlikely). The Conservatives now below their 2019 result (6% vs. 6.6%), and Pape is now fighting for his political life after one of most spectacular collapses in recent Danish political history (though DPP's collapse during the previous campaign was probably still more surprising). If the unthinkable happens and the Liberals end up behind the Moderates Ellemann-Jensen will likely have to step down, a big defeat was "baked in" when he took over as leader and he wouldn't be blamed for losing 10 points by itself. But it would be humiliating for the Liberals if they're overtaken by a party started by the man they themselves forced out using a "no one is bigger than the party" logic. If it turns out that LLR's personal brand actually was bigger than Denmark's oldest political party with the second largest membership and the most extensive grassroots network then that's a triumph of personalist politics over organization and community network, and may tempt some of the other older parties to ignore their membership even more (whereas the trend has recently been to try to reverse the centralization of power within the parties a bit, or at least question its validity). |
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Oct 25, 2022 11:54:20 GMT
As so often the poll illustrates that is the large number of parties with 5-10% support that create fragmentation, not the very small ones which are largely irrelevant. Raising the threshold to 5% would only remove two additional parties and of those New Right would almost certainly get in on tactical votes anyway in that scenario.
More than 20% support:
SocDems 25.0
10-20%
Liberals 13.2
Moderates 11.5
5-10%
SPP 9.6
Denmark Democrats 8.1
Liberal Alliance 7.3
Red Greens 6.5
Conservatives 6.0
2-5%
New Right 4.2
Social Liberals 3.8
Below 2%
DPP 1.9
The Alternative 1.7
Christian Democrats 0.6
FreeGreens 0.6
|
|
