Local by-elections/Deferred elections 23rd June 2022

[Tony Otim]

Deferred Elections:

KINGSTON-UPON-THAMES LBC; New Malden Village (deferred due to death of no description candidate)
Candidates:
BEDFORTH, Paul Ashworth (Conservative)
CASEY, Sean Paul (Labour)
COCKLE, Philip (Conservative)
DOBSON, Pat (Labour)
DUNKLING, Stephen (Labour)
DURRANT, Mark (Liberal Democrat)
HEAP, Lesley Anne (Liberal Democrat)
HEBBORN, Richard (Kingston Independent Residents Group – Malden Matters)
HINDOSH, Saad (Conservative)
HOWARD, Lucy (Green)
KIM, Dongsung (Liberal Democrat)
TRACEY, Marc (Kingston Independent Residents Group – Malden Matters)

This is a new ward – most of it coming from the old Beverley Ward, but also taking in part of the old St James ward. Beverley usually elected 3 Lib Dems, but the Conservatives took a seat in a 2013 by-election and all 3 seats in 2014, before the Lib Dems regained all 3 in 2018. St James elected 2 Con, 1 LD in 2002, 3 Con in 2006 – 2014, but 3 Lib Dems in 2018. The 2018 results were:

Beverley: LD 1986, 1957, 1787; Con 1040, 1026, 870; Lab 513, 498, 459; KIRG 407, 240, 236; Grn 179, 164, 130
St James: LD 1721, 1663, 1493; Con 1102, 985, 956; Lab 384, 350, 307; KIRG 331; UKIP 109

Mark Durrant and Lesley Heap (LD) were both incumbents for the old Beverley ward (first elected in 2018, although Lesley Heap had also contested the 2013 by-elections and the 2014 election). Paul Bedforth (Con) is a former councillor for Beverley ward (2014-2018) who finished 4th in 2018. Pat Dobson (Lab) was the top Labour candidate in 2018 when Richard Hebborn was also the 3rd candidate for KIRG.

Current Council: LD 41; Con 3; KIRG 1; 3 vacancies



NEATH PORT TALBOT UA; Port Talbot (deferred following death of Independent Candidate)
Candidates:
DAVIES, John (Independent)
DOWDEN, Jan (Green)
FREEGUARD, Sharon (Labour)
HUNT, Nigel Thomas (Plaid Cymru)
ISHERWOOD, Kimberley Anne (Independent)
PAYNE, Bethany (Green)
RAHAMAN, Saifur (Labour)
STANFORD-ROBERTS, Melissa (Plaid Cymru)

As far as I can tell the boundaries for the ward remain unchanged, but it has been reduced from 3 to 2 seats.

2017: 3 x Lab unopposed
2012: Lab 831, 782, 707; NPT Ind Party 592, 528, 479; Con 107
2008: NPT Res Ass 805, 762, 689; Lab 715, 704, 681
2004: NPT Res Ass 1008, 967, 914; Lab 536, 516, 386

Sharon Freeguard and SaifurRahaman are incumbents for the old ward – Freeguard was first elected in 2017 and Rahaman in 2012.

Current Council: Lab 25; Ind 16; PC 12; Dyffryn Ind 2; LD 2; Grn 1; 2 vacancies



By-elections:

HARLOW DC; Bush Fair (Con resigned)
Candidates:
GHAFFARI, Emma Louise Marie (Conservative)
MORRISON, Kay (Labour)
STEADMAN, Jennifer Frances (Green)
TAYLOR, Nicholas Lawrence (Harlow Alliance)

2022: Con 678, Lab 674; Grn 116; LD 47
2021: Con 963; Lab 916; LD 91
2019: Lab 615; Con 438; UKIP 302; LD 92
Nov 18by: Lab 543; Con 460; UKIP 103; Harlow Alliance 63; LD 39
2018: Lab 733; Con 634; UKIP 180; LD 82
2016: Lab 796; UKIP 429; Con 370; LD 111
2015: Lab 1380; Con 1124; UKIP 838; LD 164
2014: UKIP 744; Lab 694; Con 326; LD 102; Harlow Ind Party 80
2012: Lab 1021, 877; Con 259, 182; UKIP 236; LD 109, 90
2011: Lab 1113; Con 501; LD 256; UKIP 178
2010: Lab 1254; LD 1134; Con 1053
2008: LD 860; Lab 652; Con 554
2007: LD 855; Lab 796; Con 414
2006: LD 995; Lab 693; Con 357
2004: Lab 751; LD 690; Con 383; Ind 325
2003: LD 663; Lab 624; Con 140
2002: LD 1086, 1082, 1071; Lab 868, 845, 838; Con 224, 219, 215; Soc All 87

The Labour and Green candidates both stood in May. Nicholas Taylor stood for the Harlow Alliance in the 2018 by-election. Vacancy is for the 2022-2026 term as the councillor only lasted 5 days.

Current Council: Con 20; Lab 12; 1 vacancy



SHROPSHIRE UA; Highley (Ind resigned)
Candidates:
ATWAL, Liam Daniel (Labour)
NASH, Clare (Green)
WATERSON, Naomi (Conservative)
WILLIAMS, Mark Nicholas (Liberal Democrat)

2021: Ind 451; Con 286; Lab 114
2017: Ind 427; Con 282; Lab 170; Ind 111
2013: Ind 374; UKIP 178; LD 124
2009: LD 654; Con 380

Naomi Waterson was the unsuccessful Conservative candidate last year

Current Council: Con 42; LD 13; Lab 9; Grn 4; Ind 4; Non-affiliated Ind 1; 1 vacancy



WAVERLEY DC; Hindhead (Con died)
Candidates:
HALL, Ged (Conservative)
SPENCE, Julian Hewitt (Liberal Democrat)

2019: LD 544, 542; Con 542, 437; Lab 79
2015: Con 1416, 1380; Grn 408; Ind 393; LD 373, 325
2011: Con 1143, 1025; LD 423, 332
2007: Con 1093, 1019; LD 295
2003: Con 815, 801; LD 423, 404

Ged Hall was the unsuccessful Conservative candidate in 2019. Julian Spence was the Lib Dem candidate in Waverley Western Villages division last May, which includes this ward.

Current council: Con 20; Farnham Res 15; LD 15; Grn 2; Lab 2; Ind 2; 1 vacancy

[jamesdoyle]

Tony Otim typo - Waverley (Hindhead), 2015 result - first LibDem should be 373, not 33. 

[Tony Otim]

May 30, 2022 21:07:11 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Tony Otim typo - Waverley (Hindhead), 2015 result - first LibDem should be 373, not 33. 

Thanks - fixed.

[batman]

the Conservative victory in Beverley, New Malden in 2013 was in exceptional circumstances - the Lib Dem leader of the council, who was the resigning member, had apparently accessed illegal porn on his actual council computer, and not only resigned as leader of the council and from his council seat but was also expelled from his party. Also the Labour candidate was particularly strong & polled very well historically by normal standards for Labour in that ward. The Tories were bound to win in those circumstances, but normal service in that area has now been resumed.

[michaelarden]

May 30, 2022 22:14:01 GMT batman said:

the Conservative victory in Beverley, New Malden in 2013 was in exceptional circumstances - the Lib Dem leader of the council, who was the resigning member, had apparently accessed illegal porn on his actual council computer, and not only resigned as leader of the council and from his council seat but was also expelled from his party. Also the Labour candidate was particularly strong & polled very well historically by normal standards for Labour in that ward. The Tories were bound to win in those circumstances, but normal service in that area has now been resumed.

Was a lot more than accessing porn - he was found guilty of distributing and selling child porn: kingstoncourier.co.uk/exclusive-kingston-councils-ex-chief-relives-child-porn-probe/

[batman]

Well yes, I know - I was just being careful about what I said.........perhaps unnecessarily so.

[michaelarden]

May 30, 2022 22:23:07 GMT michaelarden said:

May 30, 2022 22:14:01 GMT batman said:

the Conservative victory in Beverley, New Malden in 2013 was in exceptional circumstances - the Lib Dem leader of the council, who was the resigning member, had apparently accessed illegal porn on his actual council computer, and not only resigned as leader of the council and from his council seat but was also expelled from his party. Also the Labour candidate was particularly strong & polled very well historically by normal standards for Labour in that ward. The Tories were bound to win in those circumstances, but normal service in that area has now been resumed.

Was a lot more than accessing porn - he was found guilty of distributing and selling child porn: kingstoncourier.co.uk/exclusive-kingston-councils-ex-chief-relives-child-porn-probe/

Lib Dem candidate Lesley Heap also has a controversial back story (although the source isn't exactly totally reliable): www.thecanary.co/exclusive/2021/02/12/lib-dem-leader-caught-up-in-racism-cover-up-scandal/

[batman]

you're dead right it's not a reliable source............

[michaelarden]

May 30, 2022 22:52:33 GMT batman said:

you're dead right it's not a reliable source............

Although there are references to a more reliable source - the local government ombudsman.

[Terry Weldon]

In Hindhead (Waverley) Peter Isherwood, the councillor who has died, was long-serving, widely respected and well liked. We were told by local Tories that his running mate, Ged Hall, was unpopular, even within his own party. He is now the Con candidate in the by-election - and we have been hearing similar reservations from the local Conservatives.

[Rural Radical]

Highley will be interesting

[Chris from Brum]

May 31, 2022 13:47:58 GMT Terry Weldon said:

In Hindhead (Waverley) Peter Isherwood, the councillor who has died, was long-serving, widely respected and well liked. We were told by local Tories that his running mate, Ged Hall, was unpopular, even within his own party. He is now the Con candidate in the by-election - and we have been hearing similar reservations from the local Conservatives.

Was the second elected councillor decided by the drawing of lots?

[Terry Weldon]

Yes - literally. The returning officer made up some dummy ballots for each of the tied candidates, and pulled one out of a box.

Our bar charts emphasise this, with the message "every vote counts".

Experience on the doorstep is that we are finding many disillusioned Tories. Some say they will vote for us, some may simply not vote, more are wavering.

Oth, the LibDems I've not come across are enthusiastic. I've even found one formerly disillusioned LD voter (upset over Clegg /coalition who now has an LD window poster up.

Our candidate, Julian Spence, has been given told by David Munro (the former Tory who won in Frensham last month) that he wishes him the best of luck. It's not yet known if he will go public with that. However, he does have explicit, public backing from local Greens.

[WJ]

Jun 14, 2022 18:03:49 GMT Rural Radical said:

Highley will be interesting

It's a really grim little place- a former pit village. Not at all what you would expect from southern Shropshire. Labour will certainly fancy their chances

[Pete Whitehead]

Jun 17, 2022 14:01:34 GMT WJ said:

Jun 14, 2022 18:03:49 GMT Rural Radical said:

Highley will be interesting

It's a really grim little place- a former pit village. Not at all what you would expect from southern Shropshire. Labour will certainly fancy their chances

They last won a contested election there in 1991

[WJ]

Jun 17, 2022 14:09:43 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jun 17, 2022 14:01:34 GMT WJ said:

It's a really grim little place- a former pit village. Not at all what you would expect from southern Shropshire. Labour will certainly fancy their chances

They last won a contested election there in 1991

Thank you, I wasn't able to find any election results from before 2003. Where there any elections where a non-Independent won since then (other than the Lib Dem in 2009)?

If Labour can get the "not Tory" vote to coalesce around them, then they will have a good chance. Although it's very hard to tell, it's been a while since Labour, Lib Dems and Conservatives all fought this seat at the same time with no independent.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jun 17, 2022 15:16:42 GMT WJ said:

Jun 17, 2022 14:09:43 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

They last won a contested election there in 1991

Thank you, I wasn't able to find any election results from before 2003. Where there any elections where a non-Independent won since then (other than the Lib Dem in 2009)?

If Labour can get the "not Tory" vote to coalesce around them, then they will have a good chance. Although it's very hard to tell, it's been a while since Labour, Lib Dems and Conservatives all fought this seat at the same time with no independent.

I don't think it has happened. The ward was Independent (usually unopposed) up until 1991. Labour first entered the fray in 1987 and lost heavily to Independents. In 1991 there was only one Independent candidate for two seats along with two Labour candidates and one Conservative. Labour won the second seat narrowly over the the Conservative with their second candidate winning not much more than half as many votes. In 1995 a Labour and Independent councillor were returned unopposed. In 1999 the sitting Labour councillor was defeated heavily when there were three Independent candidates (Labour came last) and they did not fight the Bridgnorth DC ward again as it returned to its previous patterns (Independents only fighting it out in 2003 and uncontested in 2007). The county seat showed a similar pattern - Independent dominated, then Conservative. It was part of the much larger Shottesdon division which included Cleobury Mortimer. In a straight fight between Conservatives and Labour in 1993 it went 59/41 - I expect Labour were at least competitive in Highley then

[phil156]

Everyone counts on Thursday night so be a busy long night

[michaelarden]

Looks like the Lib Dems have been working the New Malden ward hard - here's the local party chair and brother of Tory leader wannabee Charles Tugendhat bragging about the number of doors they've knocked on. The question it leads to is why bother in a safe seat or are they worried they might lose given council control isn't at stake?

[Chris from Brum]

Never any room for complacency. As the Tories found out in Chesham & Amersham and in North Shropshire.