Local by-elections/Deferred elections 23rd June 2022

[michaelarden]

Looks like there's a pact between the Indys and Greens here


vote-2012.proboards.com/post/1254592

[Rural Radical]

Jun 17, 2022 14:01:34 GMT WJ said:

Jun 14, 2022 18:03:49 GMT Rural Radical said:

Highley will be interesting

It's a really grim little place- a former pit village. Not at all what you would expect from southern Shropshire. Labour will certainly fancy their chances

I believe there is a decent Labour vote there at General Elections

[monksfield]

Jun 22, 2022 11:19:10 GMT Rural Radical said:

Jun 17, 2022 14:01:34 GMT WJ said:

It's a really grim little place- a former pit village. Not at all what you would expect from southern Shropshire. Labour will certainly fancy their chances

I believe there is a decent Labour vote there at General Elections

Although Ludlow seems to be reverting to Libdem being recognised as the main challenger.

I'm fairly local to this one and it's really tough to judge where the Indy vote will split.  Highley is an enigma even to locals.  Wouldn't be surprised to see a decent showing from the Greens, but that's not based on any detailed knowledge.

The Shropshire Council Tories need more opposition so here's hoping someone emerges from the pack.

[sirnorfolkpassmore]

Jun 21, 2022 13:52:08 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Never any room for complacency. As the Tories found out in Chesham & Amersham and in North Shropshire.

I don't know, but note that the ward borders the one where the Kingston Independent Residents' Group picked up a councillor in May.

They're a controversial grouping - either robust local champions or aggressive & rather nasty populists depending on your priors. They certainly use disruption of meetings and so on as a tactic. Not sure if they are making any headway, but the Lib Dems certainly won't want them to forming a group capable of seconding its own motions etc. 

[Tony Otim]

Jun 22, 2022 17:23:46 GMT monksfield said:

Jun 22, 2022 11:19:10 GMT Rural Radical said:

I believe there is a decent Labour vote there at General Elections

Although Ludlow seems to be reverting to Libdem being recognised as the main challenger.

I'm fairly local to this one and it's really tough to judge where the Indy vote will split.  Highley is an enigma even to locals.  Wouldn't be surprised to see a decent showing from the Greens, but that's not based on any detailed knowledge.

The Shropshire Council Tories need more opposition so here's hoping someone emerges from the pack.

It may or may not be relevant, but the Lib Dem and Conservative candidates are from Highley, the Labour one is from Kinver in the neighbouring ward and the Green is from Bridgnorth.

[Chris from Brum]

Jun 23, 2022 8:52:24 GMT Tony Otim said:

Jun 22, 2022 17:23:46 GMT monksfield said:

Although Ludlow seems to be reverting to Libdem being recognised as the main challenger.

I'm fairly local to this one and it's really tough to judge where the Indy vote will split.  Highley is an enigma even to locals.  Wouldn't be surprised to see a decent showing from the Greens, but that's not based on any detailed knowledge.

The Shropshire Council Tories need more opposition so here's hoping someone emerges from the pack.

It may or may not be relevant, but the Lib Dem and Conservative candidates are from Highley, the Labour one is from Kinver in the neighbouring ward and the Green is from Bridgnorth.

Kinver is in Staffordshire.  Did you mean Kinlet?

[Tony Otim]

Jun 23, 2022 9:15:21 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Jun 23, 2022 8:52:24 GMT Tony Otim said:

It may or may not be relevant, but the Lib Dem and Conservative candidates are from Highley, the Labour one is from Kinver in the neighbouring ward and the Green is from Bridgnorth.

Kinver is in Staffordshire.  Did you mean Kinlet?

Yes - sorry, brain fart moment...

[WJ]

Jun 23, 2022 8:52:24 GMT Tony Otim said:

Jun 22, 2022 17:23:46 GMT monksfield said:

Although Ludlow seems to be reverting to Libdem being recognised as the main challenger.

I'm fairly local to this one and it's really tough to judge where the Indy vote will split.  Highley is an enigma even to locals.  Wouldn't be surprised to see a decent showing from the Greens, but that's not based on any detailed knowledge.

The Shropshire Council Tories need more opposition so here's hoping someone emerges from the pack.

It may or may not be relevant, but the Lib Dem and Conservative candidates are from Highley, the Labour one is from Kinver in the neighbouring ward and the Green is from Bridgnorth.

May or may not be. Predictions for this ward are a complete crapshoot given it's past electoral history.

[iang]

I believe we have been fighting Highley seriously (though that was also true of the Leamington and Wyre Forest seats last week, so that doesn't guarantee a win)

[Terry Weldon]

Been out knocking up in Hindhead.  This has been our most vigorous campaign locally in years.

We began with a knock & drop survey of all households that voted in the last two local elections (2019, 2021).
Followed with 3 leaflet drops across the ward.
Postal voters not believed to be Cons, had a hand addressed letter, timed to arrive with or immediately before the ballot - followed by a GOTV canvass of postal voters last week.

Non-postal voters not believed to be Cons, had a similar reminder letter early this week, followed by an eve of poll leaflet yesterday, and now knocking up today - with a further reminder leaflet for those not in. 

There's been minimal sign of activity by the Conservatives, except for two leaflet drops by Royal Mail. 

I'll be at the count, and will post a result as soon as I can.

[Chris from Brum]

Andrew's Previews: medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-by-elections-of-23rd-june-2022-911aa3154d91

[ricmk]

Jun 23, 2022 16:00:18 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Andrew's Previews: medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-by-elections-of-23rd-june-2022-911aa3154d91

Andrew Teale said:

Mind, the Lib Dems haven’t all had it their own way here this century. Davey was out of the Commons from 2010 to 2015 after losing his seat to the Conservatives, who went on to win overall control of Kingston borough in the 2014 election.

Erm, what? Ed Davey was a Cabinet Minister in the 2010-15 coalition government! Think he lost in 2015 and returned in 2017 but that is Brexit-level re-writing of history there!

[andrewteale]

Harlow, Mark Hall - Lab gain from C
Lab 594 C 482 Grn 109 Harlow All 76

[andrewteale]

Salop, Highley - LD gain from Ind
LD 630 C 279 Lab 239 Grn 9 (nine)

[ricmk]

First Lib Dem gain of the night:

Highley by-election, Shropshire Council

Lib Dem - 630, 54.5% (+54.5%)
Conservative - 279, 24.1% (-9.5%)
Labour - 239, 20.7% (+7.3%)
Green - 9, 0.8% (+0.8%)

[iain]

Am told that New Malden Village will almost certainly be a Lib Dem hold

[gwynthegriff]

Jun 23, 2022 22:24:28 GMT andrewteale said:

Salop, Highley - LD gain from Ind
LD 630 C 279 Lab 239 Grn 9 (nine)

I don't do the predictions competition but fancied this one - the Salop Lib Dems are a hell of a team.

[Sibboleth]

The former Independent councillor for the Highley division wasn't a fan of the administration at Shirehall but was rather right-wing (even if a lot of his voters were probably unaware of that, but that's the norm for the real political views of independents everywhere!) so this is a slight balance shift. Not surprised that the bulk of his vote went LibDem, but that's a very bad result for the Conservatives. Solid for Labour, actually.

[iang]

Jun 23, 2022 22:27:44 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Jun 23, 2022 22:24:28 GMT andrewteale said:

Salop, Highley - LD gain from Ind
LD 630 C 279 Lab 239 Grn 9 (nine)

I don't do the predictions competition but fancied this one - the Salop Lib Dems are a hell of a team.

As I said above, I knew we were fighting it seriously. Lots of appeals for help across the region (though as I also said, the same was true last week with less impact)

[willpower3]

The Green vote looks like a misprint.