Local by-elections/Deferred elections 23rd June 2022

[Robert Waller]

Jun 23, 2022 22:14:46 GMT andrewteale said:

Harlow, Mark Hall - Lab gain from C
Lab 594 C 482 Grn 109 Harlow All 76

Have we had the percentages?
Bush Fair (Harlow) council by-election result:

LAB: 47.1% (+2.6)
CON: 38.2% (-6.5)
GRN: 8.6% (+1.0)
HAP: 6.0% (+6.0)

Votes cast: 1,261

Labour GAIN from Conservative.

[ricmk]

Second Lib Dem gain of the night

Hindhead (Waverley) council by-election result:

LDEM: 54.6% (+7.9)
CON: 45.4% (-1.2)

Votes cast: 983

No Lab (-6.8) as prev.

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

[ricmk]

Jun 23, 2022 11:04:11 GMT Terry Weldon said:

Been out knocking up in Hindhead.  This has been our most vigorous campaign locally in years.

We began with a knock & drop survey of all households that voted in the last two local elections (2019, 2021).
Followed with 3 leaflet drops across the ward.
Postal voters not believed to be Cons, had a hand addressed letter, timed to arrive with or immediately before the ballot - followed by a GOTV canvass of postal voters last week.

Non-postal voters not believed to be Cons, had a similar reminder letter early this week, followed by an eve of poll leaflet yesterday, and now knocking up today - with a further reminder leaflet for those not in. 

There's been minimal sign of activity by the Conservatives, except for two leaflet drops by Royal Mail. 

I'll be at the count, and will post a result as soon as I can.

You've only gone and done it - many congratulations to you and the team.

[andrewp]

Waverley Hindhead numbers

LD 537
Con 446

[dizz]

Jun 23, 2022 23:08:53 GMT andrewp said:

Waverley Hindhead numbers

LD 537
Con 446

Fairly close though. Con vote only down 1.2%. Not a walk in the Devil's Punch Bowl.

[Rural Radical]

Jun 23, 2022 22:33:08 GMT Sibboleth said:

The former Independent councillor for the Highley division wasn't a fan of the administration at Shirehall but was rather right-wing (even if a lot of his voters were probably unaware of that, but that's the norm for the real political views of independents everywhere!) so this is a slight balance shift. Not surprised that the bulk of his vote went LibDem, but that's a very bad result for the Conservatives. Solid for Labour, actually.

It is decent for Labour tbh

[timmullen1]

Apologies if I’ve missed this upthread, Labour HOLD both Port Talbot seats on Neath Port Talbot CBC:

democracy.npt.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=762&RPID=14565080

[iain]

Jun 23, 2022 22:25:55 GMT iain said:

Am told that New Malden Village will almost certainly be a Lib Dem hold

Apparently will be Lib Dem, Green/KRG ticket, then Labour and Tories joint last.

[iain]

Jun 24, 2022 0:09:26 GMT iain said:

Jun 23, 2022 22:25:55 GMT iain said:

Am told that New Malden Village will almost certainly be a Lib Dem hold

Apparently will be Lib Dem, Green/KRG ticket, then Labour and Tories joint last.

Lib Dem - 1217, 1184, 1182
Green - 867
KIRG - 724, 703
Conservative - 467, 372, 327
Labour - 436, 429, 374

[sirnorfolkpassmore]

Jun 23, 2022 23:13:13 GMT dizz said:

Jun 23, 2022 23:08:53 GMT andrewp said:

Waverley Hindhead numbers

LD 537
Con 446

Fairly close though. Con vote only down 1.2%. Not a walk in the Devil's Punch Bowl.

Always look at the baseline. Had it been compared with a good Tory result in 2021, that's a good point. But the result is compared with the dire fag end of May's "leadership" in Spring 2019.

[middleenglander]

Harlow: Bush Fair - Labour gain from Conservative

Party	2022 B votes	2022 B share	since 2022	since 2021	since 2019	since 2018 B
Labour	594	47.1%	+2.6%	+0.6%	+4.6%	+2.2%
Conservative	482	38.2%	-6.5%	-10.7%	+8.0%	+0.1%
Green	109	8.6%	+1.0%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Harlow Alliance	76	6.0%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	+0.8%
Liberal Democrat			-3.1%	-4.6%	-6.4%	-3.2%
UKIP					-20.9%	-8.5%
Total votes	1,261		83%	64%	87%	104%

Swing:  Conservative to Labour 4½% since May, 5¾% since 2021 and 1% since 2018 by-election but Labour to Conservative 1¾% since 2019

Council now:  20 Conservative, 13 Labour

Kingston-Upon-Thames: New Malden Village - 3 Liberal Democrats elected
Deferred election on new boundaries

Party	2022 votes     top candidate	2022 votes       second candidate	2022 votes       bottom candidate	2022 votes     average	2022 share      top candidate	2022 share      average
Liberal Democrats	1,217	1,184	1,182	1,194	40.7%	43.2%
Green /	867			765	29.0%
Kingston Independent Residents		724	703	with Green		27.7%
Conservative	467	372	327	389	15.6%	14.1%
Labour	436	429	374	413	14.6%	15.0%
Total votes	2,987	2,709	2,586	2,761

Council now: 44 Liberal Democrat, 3 Conservative, 1 Kingston Independent Resident Group

Neath Port Talbot - result awaited
Deferred election on same boundaries but number of councillors reduced from 3 to 2

Party	2022 votes   top  candidate	2022 votes   second candidate	2022 votes      average	2022 share    top candidate	2022 share   average	2017 result	since 2012 "top"	since 2012 "average"
Labour	914	898	906	58.1%	62.2%	3 unopposed	+3.8%	+7.5%
Plaid Cymru	367	244	305	23.3%	21.0%		from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent	246	171	209	15.6%	14.3%		from nowhere	from nowhere
Green	46	25	36	2.9%	2.4%		from nowhere	from nowhere
NPT Independent							-38.7%	-37.7%
Conservative							-7.0%	-7.6%
Total votes	1,573	1,338	1,456				103%	103%

Swing: Not meaningful

Council now:  25 Labour, 16 Independent, 12 Plaid Cymru, 2 Dyffren Independent, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Green, 2 vacancies

Shropshire: Highley - Liberal Democrat gain from Independent who did not defend the seat

Party	2022 votes	2022 share	since 2021	since 2017	since 2013
Liberal Democrat	630	54.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	+36.1%
Conservative	279	24.1%	-9.5%	-4.4%	from nowhere
Labour	239	20.7%	+7.3%	+3.5%	from nowhere
Green	9	0.8%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent Tremellen			-53.0%	-43.1%	-55.3%
Independent Court				-11.2%
UKIP					-26.3%
Total votes	1,157		136%	117%	176%

Swing:  Not meaningful - apart from 2% Conservative to Liberal Democrat since 2009 if indeed meaningful

Council now:  42 Conservative, 14 Liberal Democrat, 9 Labour, 4 Green, 4 Independent, 1 Non-affiliated Independent

Waverley: Hindhead - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative

Party	2022 votes	2022 share	since 2019 "top"	since 2019 "average"	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"
Liberal Democrat	537	54.6%	+7.9%	+5.8%	+40.2%	+40.9%
Conservative	446	45.4%	-1.2%	+1.3%	-9.3%	-9.5%
Labour			-6.8%	-7.1%
Green					-15.8%	-16.0%
Independent					-15.2%	-15.4%
Total votes	983		84%	88%	38%	39%

Swing:  Conservative to Liberal Democrat 4½% / 2¼% since 2019 and 25% since 2015

Council now:  20 Conservative, 16 Liberal Democrat, 15 Farnham Residents, 2 Labour, 2 Green, 2 Independent

[listener]

Pedants' corner - the Neath Port Talbot councillors in Dyffryn ward are Dyffryn Independents.
It is Kingston-upon-Thames and New Malden Village.

[liverpoolliberal]

Labour people on here saying that Highley was “decent” are dramatically underplaying how hard they went for it. They had 3 teams knocking up voters past 8pm in quite a small seat and Julia Buckley was there pretty much every day of the campaign.

Added that the Tories put up a token effort, coming third is borderline embarrassing in what is a very demographically favourable ward for them.

[minionofmidas]

Jun 23, 2022 16:00:18 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Andrew's Previews: medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-by-elections-of-23rd-june-2022-911aa3154d91

That Oakham collapse is hilarious.

I do wonder how Mr Hesse came by his fancy name. A member of the House of Hesse he is not, and he is the only person to come up in searches for the full surname (along with numerous results for the winegrowing town of Winkel, in the former Hessen-Nassau, obviously.)

[matureleft]

Jun 24, 2022 5:22:29 GMT liverpoolliberal said:

Labour people on here saying that Highley was “decent” are dramatically underplaying how hard they went for it. They had 3 teams knocking up voters past 8pm in quite a small seat and Julia Buckley was there pretty much every day of the campaign.

Added that the Tories put up a token effort, coming third is borderline embarrassing in what is a very demographically favourable ward for them.

Well yes. But Labour appears to have had first,  a constituency party with very limited strength and secondly, regardless of the origin and demographics of the place, modest on-the-ground presence or history of fighting the seat hard in the fairly recent past. And (without visiting the place but knowing the sort of village from the description) having a genuinely local candidate really counts in this sort of seat.  

The Lib Dem is local as is the Tory, are they not? 

With these points in mind, a creditable Labour effort.

[michaelarden]

Lib Dems apparently had 60 people knocking up in New Malden and their call centre ran out of Tiverton numbers so they phoned New Malden too. Not a great result in the circumstances with that effort.

[ricmk]

Might have made some mistakes but who got the most votes last night overall?
With a simple add I get a close result at the top:

LIB DEM - 27,795
CON - 26,967
LABOUR - 18,652
GREEN - 2,707
LOCAL - 2,685
INDY - 2,507
REFUK - 994
PLAID - 611
OTHER - 1733

(Local = Harlow Alliance + Yorkshire Party + Kingston Residents)

[Chris from Brum]

Jun 24, 2022 7:51:07 GMT michaelarden said:

Lib Dems apparently had 60 people knocking up in New Malden and their call centre ran out of Tiverton numbers so they phoned New Malden too. Not a great result in the circumstances with that effort.

It's ok, we get it, a Lib Dem stole your dinner money when you were about 5.  But there are three more Lib Dem councillors here as of this morning, and we'll take that any day of the week.

[michaelarden]

Jun 24, 2022 8:51:07 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Jun 24, 2022 7:51:07 GMT michaelarden said:

Lib Dems apparently had 60 people knocking up in New Malden and their call centre ran out of Tiverton numbers so they phoned New Malden too. Not a great result in the circumstances with that effort.

It's ok, we get it, a Lib Dem stole your dinner money when you were about 5.  But there are three more Lib Dem councillors here as of this morning, and we'll take that any day of the week.

Wow - was simply contrasting with Lib Dem posts above commenting on the efforts of Labour in Highley and suggesting the result wasn't as good as it should have been. This was a ward that the Lib Dems saw their vote drop significantly despite massive effort. Yes you got three councillors over the line and have an even bigger majority on the council. But generally all your majorities are lower than last time and non-Tory parties have moved into challengers in several wards.

But it's obviously OK for Lib Dems to criticise Labour's efforts in Shropshire but not OK for others to do the same for Lib Dems in Kingston. there's a word for that isn't there?

[Chris from Brum]

Jun 24, 2022 9:04:40 GMT michaelarden said:

Jun 24, 2022 8:51:07 GMT Chris from Brum said:

It's ok, we get it, a Lib Dem stole your dinner money when you were about 5.  But there are three more Lib Dem councillors here as of this morning, and we'll take that any day of the week.

Wow - was simply contrasting with Lib Dem posts above commenting on the efforts of Labour in Highley and suggesting the result wasn't as good as it should have been. This was a ward that the Lib Dems saw their vote drop significantly despite massive effort. Yes you got three councillors over the line and have an even bigger majority on the council. But generally all your majorities are lower than last time and non-Tory parties have moved into challengers in several wards.

But it's obviously OK for Lib Dems to criticise Labour's efforts in Shropshire but not OK for others to do the same for Lib Dems in Kingston. there's a word for that isn't there?

It's difficult to avoid noticing that your comments on Lib Dem performances are unremittingly negative, whenever and wherever.  Criticism is fine, so long as it's balanced.  Yours seems not to be.