French Legislative Elections 2022

[Sibboleth]

President Jupiter losing his majority is funny, but otherwise these are pretty gloomy results from most perspectives.

[andrea]

Map version of the results
www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2022/06/19/carte-des-resultats-des-legislatives-les-deputes-elus-circonscription-par-circonscription_6131057_4355770.html

Currently

ENS 160
NUP 70 + 11 Other Left
RN 65 + Emmanuelle Ménard
LR 48
Other Right 8
Regionalists 6
Centrists 4
Others 1


203 to come

[Sibboleth]

Jun 19, 2022 18:42:31 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Looks like the centre-right have won most constituencies where they had a first-round lead while the left have lost quite a few?

They were always likely to struggle in runoffs against Macronista candidates except where their first round votes were large, but the usual anti-FN tactical second round tactical voting has broken down completely, which has left them much weaker against the 'RN' than would normally have been the case.

[Deleted]

Jun 19, 2022 18:43:35 GMT andrea said:

Map version of the results
www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2022/06/19/carte-des-resultats-des-legislatives-les-deputes-elus-circonscription-par-circonscription_6131057_4355770.html

Currently

ENS 160
NUP 70 + 11 Other Left
RN 65 + Emmanuelle Ménard
LR 49
Other Right 8
Regionalists 6
Centrists 4
Others 1


203 to come

Absolutely nothing for anybody to pleased about except the RN then by the look of it 

[Deleted]

Jun 19, 2022 18:44:57 GMT Sibboleth said:

Jun 19, 2022 18:42:31 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Looks like the centre-right have won most constituencies where they had a first-round lead while the left have lost quite a few?

They were always likely to struggle in runoffs against Macronista candidates except where their first round votes were large, but the usual anti-FN tactical second round tactical voting has broken down completely, which has left them much weaker against the 'RN' than would normally have been the case.

I expected the difficulties against Macronistes but the results looked bad, hadn't twigged that it was because of a breakdown in anti-RN tactical voting though 

[Sibboleth]

Aisne 3rd continues to be a meme constituency and re-elects its PS incumbent comparatively comfortably under the circumstances. One of Le Pen's strongest constituencies in the Presidential poll and also has the longest SFIO/PS winning streak (back to the mid 1960s). A series of small, bleak postindustrial towns in the north of Picardy, none of which are particularly notable.

[relique]

Clearly the message from the government has been received: NUPES is doing very very badly against RN. No "republicain front" from the right.

[andrea]

PCF gain Pas de Calais 3 from RN by 71 votes

[Deleted]

Breton regionalist elected with 73.5% of the vote in Morbihan-4ème. Is that their first ever member of the national assembly?

[Sibboleth]

Jun 19, 2022 19:11:20 GMT andrea said:

PCF gain Pas de Calais 3 from RN by 71 votes

This is Lens and surrounds. A dissident PS candidate is well ahead in the 8th (largest town is Saint-Omer) as well so that's two P-d-C seats for the Left who were wiped out there last time.

[Georg Ebner]

So RN will take roughly, what was expected immediately after the pres.runOff, but not afterwards, when LePen went even on vacation (!) and the momentum seemed to be at NUPES.

[minionofmidas]

Jun 19, 2022 19:12:14 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Breton regionalist elected with 73.5% of the vote in Morbihan-4ème. Is that their first ever member of the national assembly?

He's been the sitting member since 2012! (He had Left support then and LREM support in 2017 when he won in the 1st round, but is probably best understood as a personable personalist indie.)

[minionofmidas]

I guess this is what tends to happen when you treat an election that is not a two horse race as a two horse race and go negative hard. As both NUPES and Ensemble did. It's like the entire political class and commentariat and observers forgot RN exists.

[andrea]

Reports that Élisabeth Moreno lost in North-West Africa.

NUPES says they have beaten Roxana Maracineanu.

[andrea]

Government minister Amélie de Montchalin lost to NUPES' Jérôme Guedj. 53,7 to 46.3%

[jamie]

Ipsos estimates that the Ensemble vote broke 70% for abstention, 16% for NUPES and 12% for RN. When you chuck in the largely (but not completely) RN favouring LR vote, you get RN wins in places that were fairly even for 1st place in the 1st round. I haven’t seen the numbers yet but I would expect much of the equivalent to have happened in Ensemble-RN run-offs.

[Sibboleth]

Percentage of seats (rather than seat totals: percentages have to be used as the size of the National Assembly has increased so much over the decades) in the National Assembly won by the Left as conventionally defined at the time during the Fifth Republic:

1958 - 18.7
1962 - 31.9
1967 - 39.8
1968 - 18.7
1973 - 35.9
1978 - 41.0
1981 - 67.8
1986 - 43.3*
1988 - 52.7
1993 - 15.8
1997 - 55.4
2002 - 30.8
2007 - 39.3
2012 - 59.1
2017 - 12.5

*Election conducted via PR.

We obviously don't have a final figure for 2022 yet but it's going to be somewhere around about 30%.

[Deleted]

Would the left have done better with a less divisive figurehead than Mélenchon? Or if PS were the ringleaders rather than LFI?

[myth11]

Now for the battle of Paris and subs as most of what is left to declare is there.

[jamie]

Jun 19, 2022 20:32:29 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Would the left have done better with a less divisive figurehead than Mélenchon? Or if PS were the ringleaders rather than LFI?

Given Melenchon’s very poor personal ratings, yes. However, the reason he’s the figurehead is that everyone else is weak and there’s no real alternative left leader at present so he was inevitably going to dominate the left campaign (that, and the fact he would have demanded it anyways).