J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,772 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 19, 2022 14:44:54 GMT
I think that France should use FPTP. That might persuade them to stop mucking about with party names, alliances, realignments and inventing new parties every five minutes. If they insist on wanting to use a two-round system, they should use the Bhutan method. Then it would be clearer about who and what is winning and losing. What, massacre the incumbants? |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 19, 2022 16:08:26 GMT
TurnOut is up a little bit - good for NUPES, bad for Ens.&LR:  |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
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Post by andrea on Jun 19, 2022 16:29:16 GMT
La Reunion count well underway
Nailet (PS), Lebon (PLR), Bassire (DVD), Ratenon (LFI) re-elected. Maillot (LFI) gain the 6th constituency (the LR incumbent was eliminated last week).
Emeline K’Bidi (PLR-NUPES) gain the 4th constituency from David Lorion (LR).
It is close in the 7th constituency between Thierry Robert and Perceval Gaillard
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
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Post by andrea on Jun 19, 2022 16:36:38 GMT
Perceval Gaillard beats Robert.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 19, 2022 16:42:48 GMT
Tematai le Gayic is 21 years old and the youngest MP in the history of the 5th Republic. 50.1 in Wallis & Futuna? What kind of raw vote margin is that!? Well,if JLM gets in, here comes the Sixth Republic! |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 19, 2022 16:46:22 GMT
Le Figaro say that turnout looks likely to be about 46 per cent.
Their reporters are also noting "anti-Macron" voters happily swinging behind pretty much any possible opponent. The reporter in Hénin-Beaumont suggests that even NUPES voters are telling them that they're voting for MLP because they hate Macron so much. The famed barrage might be against Manu not Marine.
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Post by relique on Jun 19, 2022 16:54:17 GMT
Le Figaro say that turnout looks likely to be about 46 per cent. Their reporters are also noting "anti-Macron" voters happily swinging behind pretty much any possible opponent. The reporter in Hénin-Beaumont suggests that even NUPES voters are telling them that they're voting for MLP because they hate Macron so much. The famed barrage might be against Manu not Marine. There's no Macron candidate against le Pen. There's a nupes candidate. So that's weird. There's a feeling of anti Macron voting. A bit like 2017. And LREM Lost 5 points since them. And they were transfer toxic already. With 70 LR and UDI and 40 RN there could be more nupes than ensemble mps |
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 19, 2022 16:58:05 GMT
I think that France should use FPTP. That might persuade them to stop mucking about with party names, alliances, realignments and inventing new parties every five minutes. If they insist on wanting to use a two-round system, they should use the Bhutan method. Then it would be clearer about who and what is winning and losing. Just googled this. So in Bhutan a party can win the most votes in a seat and then be disqualified from the second round on the basis of results in other constituencies. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 19, 2022 16:58:34 GMT
Le Figaro say that turnout looks likely to be about 46 per cent. Their reporters are also noting "anti-Macron" voters happily swinging behind pretty much any possible opponent. The reporter in Hénin-Beaumont suggests that even NUPES voters are telling them that they're voting for MLP because they hate Macron so much. The famed barrage might be against Manu not Marine. There's no Macron candidate against le Pen. There's a nupes candidate. So that's weird. There's a feeling of anti Macron voting. A bit like 2017. And LREM Lost 5 points since them. And they were transfer toxic already. With 70 LR and UDI and 40 RN there could be more nupes than ensemble mps Yes, I should have put that detail. It was a very weird story. Presumably they think that MLP being in the assembly serves to annoy Manu more than a generic Melenchonista. Now also a report that they believe abstention rates amongst younger voters is enormous. Not sure what that's based on as it stands. |
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Post by relique on Jun 19, 2022 17:52:49 GMT
Belgian media La Libre belgique is saying
Ensemble: 218
NUPES: 156
RN: 89
LR (and UDI): 78
seats needed for an absolute majority: 289. There clearly wouldn't be enough centrist LR to support Macron's government.
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
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Post by andrea on Jun 19, 2022 18:01:43 GMT
IPSOS Projections
ENS 224 seats
NUPES 149
Other Left 21
RN 89
LR 78
Other Centre 4
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
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Post by andrea on Jun 19, 2022 18:05:04 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2022 18:05:27 GMT
I think that France should use FPTP. That might persuade them to stop mucking about with party names, alliances, realignments and inventing new parties every five minutes. If they insist on wanting to use a two-round system, they should use the Bhutan method. Then it would be clearer about who and what is winning and losing. Just googled this. So in Bhutan a party can win the most votes in a seat and then be disqualified from the second round on the basis of results in other constituencies. For those unfamiliar, the first round involves all parties presenting their candidates, like FPTP. The two parties who win the most votes nationwide are then entitled to enter the second round and can stand in as many or as few seats as they like |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
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Post by andrea on Jun 19, 2022 18:09:34 GMT
President of National Assembly and chair of LREM parliamentary group have lost their seats according to France24 live coverage
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2022 18:09:45 GMT
How much do residents of the overseas départements consider themselves French? If you were to ask how they identify/their nationality, would the majority say French or their territory or something else?
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 19, 2022 18:12:16 GMT
How much do residents of the overseas départements consider themselves French? If you were to ask how they identify/their nationality, would the majority say French or their territory? Or both. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 19, 2022 18:18:38 GMT
Given how much of rural France is already counted, the scope for that fantastical RN triumph to dissipate is sorely limited.
Otoh it's not at all clear that Ensemble+LR will have a majority!
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 19, 2022 18:34:34 GMT
Gard 3rd
1st round RN 30, Ensemble 27, NUPES 21
2nd round RN 51, Ensemble 49
Turnout 49% each time, though the effective turnout (valid votes divided by inscrits) dropped from 48 to 44.
This is a final result. If RN can win from first round results like that...
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xenon
Forum Regular
Posts: 426
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Post by xenon on Jun 19, 2022 18:38:14 GMT
Projections all look worse for Macron than I expected, all seem to be predicting have a minority for LREM. The Republicans seem to have pulled off a comeback, apparently they are on course to win 79 of the 90 constituencies they were running in. Le Pen's party also somewhat higher than expected, and NUPES probably near the central estimate (although obviously much improved on last time, especially for LFI).
I presume the forecasts will be slightly less reliable than the presidential ones as there are 500+ contests to be predicted rather than just one.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2022 18:42:31 GMT
Looks like the centre-right have won most constituencies where they had a first-round lead while the left have lost quite a few?
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