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Post by relique on Jun 18, 2022 12:13:11 GMT
The result I'm most closely watching is whether Anne de Montmorency will regain the seat that Anne formerly held. What ? Someone on this forum doesn't like arrogant people throwing a tantrum when they are clearly mistaken but don't admit it ? |
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 18, 2022 12:30:48 GMT
Predictions for the second round Hopefully you will update this list with the results - both because it is interesting, and because we can see how good your predictions are. |
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Post by relique on Jun 18, 2022 13:00:09 GMT
Predictions for the second round Hopefully you will update this list with the results - both because it is interesting, and because we can see how good your predictions are. Of course ! Maybe not sunday night, though 
I can already say that 71 of the MPs I predicted before the first round were eliminated for the second ! So already a 12,3% failure rate. And it can only grow !
In 2017, on 550 constituencies (I didn't try to predict over-seas MPs), I got 207 wrong, so 38% failure rate. It was quite a tough election to call, though.
In 2012, I had a 24,8% failure rate before the first round, 10,9% after the first round.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 18, 2022 21:57:50 GMT
Turnout overseas is up from 1st round and 2017 so far
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 18, 2022 22:19:27 GMT
Stéphane Lenormand won St Pierre et Miquelon.
1329 to 1310 votes according to the live coverage on St Pierre et Miquelon 1ére.
It was an exciting coverage...going from interviewing Madame la presidente du bureau de Feu Rouge to the live announcement from the last bureau of St Pierre with the "I am not good at maths" journalist.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 18, 2022 23:34:18 GMT
Jean-Victor Castor won in Guyane 1.
Davy Rimane (NUPES) ousts incumbent Lénaïck Adam (LREM) in Guyane 2.
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Post by relique on Jun 18, 2022 23:38:06 GMT
Jean-Victor Castor won in Guyane 1. Davy Rimane (NUPES) ousts incumbent Lénaïck Adam (LREM) in Guyane 2. Third lost seat for Macron after the two seats lost on the first round in Paris last sunday. |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 19, 2022 0:00:44 GMT
Christian Baptiste is winning over Justine Bénin, state secretary for the sea.
Olivier Serva is cruising towards re-election in Guadaleupe 1.
Jiovanny William elected in Martinique 1 over Philippe Edmond-Mariette.
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Post by relique on Jun 19, 2022 0:23:04 GMT
Christian Baptiste is winning over Justine Bénin, state secretary for the sea. Olivier Serva is cruising towards re-election in Guadaleupe 1. Jiovanny William elected in Martinique 1 over Philippe Edmond-Mariette. Indeed, first government minister beaten for these elections. A newbie from only a few weeks ago, incumbent but beaten by the left. Serva and Mathiasin will be reelected, the first one gaining support from Mélenchon just a couple of days ago despite sitting with En Marche for the past five years (one reason might be that Mélenchon didn't want Éric Jalton's man elected) |
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Post by relique on Jun 19, 2022 7:29:50 GMT
In Polynésie française the independentists supported by NUPES are close to win the three seats. That's quite a big result and it would be yet another loss for macronists (who could have gained one seat from the right and one from the left)
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Jun 19, 2022 8:00:02 GMT
Christian Baptiste is winning over Justine Bénin, state secretary for the sea_(my underscore). Olivier Serva is cruising towards re-election in Guadaleupe 1. Jiovanny William elected in Martinique 1 over Philippe Edmond-Mariette.
Gwadeloup 2 has bell-wether mojo for its results since 1988.
2nd round | Assembly seats
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88: 60 | 275 271 27 1
93: 54 | 57 472 24 1
97: 59 | 312 251 ¹ 1 [1] gauche plurielle
02: 52 | 157 398 21
07: 55 | 227 345 ² 3 [2] gauche parlementaire
12: 72 | 331 229 10 2 2
17: 64 | 45 136 17 8 351
22: 59
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 19, 2022 8:14:14 GMT
Frantz Gumbs (LREM) elected in Saint-Barthélemy/ Saint-Martin very easily over the dissident LR.
Guyane 1: Jean-Victor Castor (Mouvement de décolonisation et d'émancipation sociale) 56.53 (17.30 in R1) Yvane Goua (NUPES) 43.47 (20.77)
Guyane 2: Davy Rimane (NUPES) 54.12% (21.32) Lénaïck Adam (LREM) 45.88 (31,87)
Martinique 1: Jiovanny William (DVG) 62.9 (14.55) Philippe Edmond-Mariette (Reg) 37,1 (1788)
Martinique 2: Marcellin Nadeau (NUPES) 63.5 (27.56) Justin Pamphile (Reg) 36,5 (25,84)
Martinique 3: Johnny Hajjar (NUPES) 58,7 (37,03) Francis Carole (reg) 41,3 (18,95)
Martinique 4: Jean-Philippe Nilor (NUPES) 71,4 (44,2) Alfred Marie-Jeanne (Reg) 28,6 (25,8)
Guadeloupe 1: Olivier Serva 74,04 (43,44) Dominique Biras (DVG) 25,96 (15,02)
Guadeloupe 2: Christian Baptiste (NUPES) 58,7 (26,78) Justine Bénin (Ens) 41,3 (31,3)
Guadeloupe 3: Max Mathiasin (Diss. MoDem) 52,12 (16,93) Rody Tolassy 47,88 (20,09)
Guadeloupe 4: Élie Califer (NUPES) unopposed
2 incumbents re-elected in Guadeloupe (Serva, Mathiasin), 1 in Martinique (Nilor) and 0 in Guyane.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 19, 2022 10:03:50 GMT
The Ensemble backed candidates elected in the two Nouvelle-Calédonie constituencies.
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Post by johnloony on Jun 19, 2022 10:10:25 GMT
The 203 constituencies to watch on sunday, that would give or not Macron his absolute majority. He needs 126 of them. … The result I'm most closely watching is whether Anne de Montmorency will regain the seat that Anne formerly held. Oh! Is he a descendant of the original? Which constituency? I couldn’t find the name on the list of candidates in the previous page. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 19, 2022 10:15:01 GMT
The result I'm most closely watching is whether Anne de Montmorency will regain the seat that Anne formerly held. What ? Someone on this forum doesn't like arrogant people throwing a tantrum when they are clearly mistaken but don't admit it ? Who? what? I hope you’re not referring to me! (1) I’m not arrogant (2) I didn’t make any mistake about Anne de Montmorency. (3) I didn’t do a tantrum; I calmly and politely explained that it had always been completely obvious to everybody that Anne de M. was a man, and that there had never been any reason for anybody to think or to suggest that I had ever thought that he was a woman. There were a few hysterical illogical people who seemed to be under the impression that I somehow thought that Anne de M. was a woman, even though it was always completely obvious that he was a man. |
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Jun 19, 2022 10:21:08 GMT
Frantz Gumbs (LREM) elected in Saint-Barthélemy/ Saint-Martin very easily over the dissident LR. Guyane 1: Jean-Victor Castor (Mouvement de décolonisation et d'émancipation sociale) 56.53 (17.30 in R1) Yvane Goua (NUPES) 43.47 (20.77) Guyane 2: Davy Rimane (NUPES) 54.12% (21.32) Lénaïck Adam (LREM) 45.88 (31,87) Martinique 1: Jiovanny William (DVG) 62.9 (14.55) Philippe Edmond-Mariette (Reg) 37,1 (1788) Martinique 2: Marcellin Nadeau (NUPES) 63.5 (27.56) Justin Pamphile (Reg) 36,5 (25,84) Martinique 3: Johnny Hajjar (NUPES) 58,7 (37,03) Francis Carole (reg) 41,3 (18,95) Martinique 4: Jean-Philippe Nilor (NUPES) 71,4 (44,2) Alfred Marie-Jeanne (Reg) 28,6 (25,8) Guadeloupe 1: Olivier Serva 74,04 (43,44) Dominique Biras (DVG) 25,96 (15,02) Guadeloupe 2: Christian Baptiste (NUPES) 58,7 (26,78) Justine Bénin (Ens) 41,3 (31,3) Guadeloupe 3: Max Mathiasin (Diss. MoDem) 52,12 (16,93) Rody Tolassy 47,88 (20,09) Guadeloupe 4: Élie Califer (NUPES) unopposed 2 incumbents re-elected in Guadeloupe (Serva, Mathiasin), 1 in Martinique (Nilor) and 0 in Guyane. If i may anew Polynésie 1: Tematai Le Gayic ( Tavini & NUPES - REG) 50,9 (41,9) Nicole Bouteau ( ENS) 49,1 (20,1) Polynésie 2: Steve Chailloux ( Tavini & NUPES - REG) 58,9 (33,2) Tepuaraurii Teriitahi ( ENS) 41.1 (28,8) Polynésie 3: Moetai Brotherson ( Tavini & NUPES - REG) 61.3 (34,3) Tuterai Tuhamai ( ENS) 38.9 (20,1) Nouvelle Calédonie 1: Philippe Dunoyer ( ENS) 66.4 (40,8) Walisaune Wahetra ( Parti de libération kanak & FLNKS - REG) 33.6 (21,7) Nouvelle Calédonie 2: Nicolas Metzdorf ( ENS) 54.2 (33,7) Gérard Reignier ( Union calédonienne & FLNKS - REG) 45.8 (32.8) Correct predictions by relique are in bold. Edit: Wallis et Futuna was close: Mikaele Seo ( ENS) 50.1 (21.8) Etuato Mulikihaamea (s ans étiquette - DVC) 49.9 (18,8) Edit2: Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon: Stéphane Lenormand ( Archipel demain - DVD) 50.4 (32.4) Olivier Gaston ( FI - DVG) 49.6 (29.6) Edit3: La Réunion 1: Philippe Naillet ( PS & NUPES - DVG) 60.7 (33.5) Jean-Jacques Morel ( sans étiquette - DVD) 39.3 (14.6) La Réunion 2: Karine Lebon ( Pour La Réunion & NUPES - DVG) 69.4 (42.9) Audrey Fontaine ( UDI) 30.6 (13.1) La Réunion 3: Nathalie Bassire ( LR diss. - DVD) 51.9 (16.7) Patrice Thien-Ah-Koon ( LR - DVD) 48.1 (21.7) La Réunion 4: Emeline K’Bidi ( Pour La Réunion & NUPES - DVG) 61.3 (36.1) David Lorion ( LR) 38.7 (32.5) La Réunion 5: Jean-Hugues Ratenon 62.8 ( FI & NUPES - DVG) (36.4) Ridwane Issa ( Banian - DVG) 37.2 (16.7) La Réunion 6: Frédéric Maillot ( Pour La Réunion & NUPES - DVG) 53.0 (23.9) Alexandre Laï-Kane-Cheong ( Croire et Oser - DVG) 47.0 (17.0) La Réunion 7: Perceval Gaillard ( FI & NUPES - DVG) 51.2 (20.8) Thierry Robert ( Peuple aux commandes du territoire - DVC) 48.8 (24.5) Mayotte 1: Estelle Youssoufa ( sans etiquette - DIV) 66.6 (21.0) Théophane Narayanin ( sans etiquette - DIV) 33.4 (17.7) Mayotte 2: Mansour Kamardine ( LR) 59.2 (32.3) Issa Issa Abdou ( Mouvement pour le développement de Mayotte - DVC) 40.8 (19.6) Looking at the Ministry of the Interior site on Monday did reveal that a surprising share of the figures displayed in the chirps on the day were approximative.. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 19, 2022 10:26:33 GMT
I think that France should use FPTP. That might persuade them to stop mucking about with party names, alliances, realignments and inventing new parties every five minutes. If they insist on wanting to use a two-round system, they should use the Bhutan method. Then it would be clearer about who and what is winning and losing.
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Post by relique on Jun 19, 2022 10:34:27 GMT
Results in Polynésie are really surprising. First time independance has three MPs. As historic leader Oscar Temaru Saïd "they will go to Palais Bourbon (assemblée nationale) but also to the UN !"
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 19, 2022 12:08:19 GMT
Tematai le Gayic is 21 years old and the youngest MP in the history of the 5th Republic.
50.1 in Wallis & Futuna? What kind of raw vote margin is that!?
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Jun 19, 2022 12:19:45 GMT
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