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Post by woollyliberal on May 1, 2022 8:03:33 GMT
It is going to be more difficult for the LibDems to establish main challenger status over Labour than N Shropshire Take a look at the betting odds. People with an interest in politics and loose change in their pockets already think the Lib Dems are the main challengers. The Lib Dems haven't had time to do anything yet. Well, except win in C&A and N Shrops. Sure enough, we have to do that where it counts. But look at the numbers johnloony quotes: The swing which happened in Shropshire North, if applied to Tiverton & Honiton: LD 52% Con 29% Lab 7% The swing which happened in Chesham & Amersham, if applied to Tiverton & Honiton: LD 45% Con 40% Lab 8% I predict: LD 50% Con 34% Lab 9% This is doable for the Lib Dems. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on May 1, 2022 8:07:57 GMT
Was it not five Lib Dem councillors elected in the constituency in 2019? East Devon: Honiton St Michaels Mid Devon: 2x Castle, Cranmore, Upper Culm Since then, Honiton St Michaels and one in Castle lost in byelections, and one gained in Cullompton South. You are quite right. I think on writing the profile, I used numbers from pre the 2019 election Actual councillors elected in 2019 were Con 24, Ind+ Ind East Devon Alliance 17, LD 5, Green 1 Councillors now are Con 25, Ind+ East Devon Alliance 16, LD 4, Green 1, Lab 1 |
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Post by Ron Swanson on May 1, 2022 8:10:04 GMT
It is going to be more difficult for the LibDems to establish main challenger status over Labour than N Shropshire Take a look at the betting odds. People with an interest in politics and loose change in their pockets already think the Lib Dems are the main challengers. The Lib Dems haven't had time to do anything yet. Well, except win in C&A and N Shrops. Sure enough, we have to do that where it counts. But look at the numbers johnloony quotes: The swing which happened in Shropshire North, if applied to Tiverton & Honiton: LD 52% Con 29% Lab 7% The swing which happened in Chesham & Amersham, if applied to Tiverton & Honiton: LD 45% Con 40% Lab 8% I predict: LD 50% Con 34% Lab 9% This is doable for the Lib Dems. Are there any odds out there? Had a look on oddschecker and there isn’t anything. |
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Post by evergreenadam on May 1, 2022 8:13:53 GMT
I would agree with the point made that the Conservatives should go for a quick election with a local female candidate. The question is whether they have got a potential local female candidate. In terms of Labour, they would do well to give Jake Bonetta from Honiton a run. He’s about 22 and gained a district council seat in Honiton last year. He is Uber active and has the support of the well drilled Exeter Labour machine. The vacancy in Exeter has probably come 10 years too early for him. Exeter Labour could run a serious campaign here, but if they did they would probably secure a Conservative hold so won’t. I think there is a bit of downplaying of Lib Dem expectations here. Apart from perhaps a spell from about 2007-15, the Lib Dems would have won a by election here at most points in the last 35 years. I think it’s there to lose and I would amazed if they don’t win. The Lib Dems are likely to be on a high after their two previous by-election wins, whilst Tory activists will be blunted by large losses at the local elections. And let us be honest… their fairly high profile party chairman is a bit of a knob isn’t he? Wouldn’t inspire me to give up my time trying to get a candidate elected. The current generation of Tory cabinet ministers has reached the end of the line, and needs to be replaced. I don’t see much point carrying on any longer. Any successful Tory candidate would only be in office for short term before having to fight the Tory candidate selection for the successor seats which have a lot of new territory to cover for the next General Election. Though with retirements in Devon likely there should be enough seats for every Tory MP to secure reselection in the county. |
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Post by woollyliberal on May 1, 2022 8:35:06 GMT
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Post by carolus on May 1, 2022 8:35:57 GMT
Take a look at the betting odds. People with an interest in politics and loose change in their pockets already think the Lib Dems are the main challengers. The Lib Dems haven't had time to do anything yet. Well, except win in C&A and N Shrops. Sure enough, we have to do that where it counts. But look at the numbers johnloony quotes: This is doable for the Lib Dems. Are there any odds out there? Had a look on oddschecker and there isn’t anything. Smarkets have a market up here |
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on May 1, 2022 8:46:50 GMT
Media speculation that David Frost should be the Tory candidate this morning. I imagine the opposition would be satisfied with that. In fact if it was him against Sarah Wollaston it would be a Brexit grudge-match.
Not sure that’s the territory Lib Dems would want to play on in a 58% leave seat but campaigning seems to be rooted in how specific sectors such as farming have been shafted by Brexit, with some success in N Shropshire. Does anyone know if there is extensive farming in this seat? Traditionally one of the most Tory voting groups but no longer I suspect.
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DrW
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Post by DrW on May 1, 2022 8:51:15 GMT
The danger of high expectations. This is massively difficult for the Lib Dems: no history, third place, no strong local government presence, no Brexit alignment to play into (58% Leave) rural and a long way from big cities so tricky to get people to and around. Not saying LDs won’t have a good go, but just because the impossible has been done twice already this Parliament, doesn’t make it easy again. Especially if the Tories finally learn how to select a candidate who isn’t a total liability. As for whether Parish should go, if he clicked on a link in error and promptly closed it, that’s one thing. But he doesn’t seem able to confidently say that, which makes me think it’s another thing, that would be seen as gross misconduct in any other workplace. What protections do MPs have against unfair or constructive dismissal? |
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aargauer
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Post by aargauer on May 1, 2022 9:03:22 GMT
Media speculation that David Frost should be the Tory candidate this morning. I imagine the opposition would be satisfied with that. In fact if it was him against Sarah Wollaston it would be a Brexit grudge-match. Not sure that’s the territory Lib Dems would want to play on in a 58% leave seat but campaigning seems to be rooted in how specific sectors such as farming have been shafted by Brexit, with some success in N Shropshire. Does anyone know if there is extensive farming in this seat? Traditionally one of the most Tory voting groups but no longer I suspect. Frost would likely get the backing of the public in a way that your random anonymous councillor would not - ie the election to a certain extent would be a referendum on him rather than Boris. That said I wouldn't risk it if I was him. Re: farmers - I'm not sure where you are coming from here. I don't see any evidence of movement to the liberals amongst agricultural seats. |
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Rural Radical
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Post by Rural Radical on May 1, 2022 9:15:40 GMT
Media speculation that David Frost should be the Tory candidate this morning. I imagine the opposition would be satisfied with that. In fact if it was him against Sarah Wollaston it would be a Brexit grudge-match. Not sure that’s the territory Lib Dems would want to play on in a 58% leave seat but campaigning seems to be rooted in how specific sectors such as farming have been shafted by Brexit, with some success in N Shropshire. Does anyone know if there is extensive farming in this seat? Traditionally one of the most Tory voting groups but no longer I suspect. David Frost would likely get the backing of the public in a way that your random anonymous councillor would not - ie the election to a certain extent would be a referendum on him rather than Boris. That said I wouldn't risk it if I was him. Re: farmers - I'm not sure where you are coming from here. I don't see any evidence of movement to the liberals amongst agricultural seats. There clearly was movement in Shropshire North |
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Post by woollyliberal on May 1, 2022 9:16:51 GMT
David Frost would likely get the backing of the public in a way that your random anonymous councillor would not - ie the election to a certain extent would be a referendum on him rather than Boris. That said I wouldn't risk it if I was him. Re: farmers - I'm not sure where you are coming from here. I don't see any evidence of movement to the liberals amongst agricultural seats. On the second of these two points, it was shown in N Shropshire that farmers are not happy that the outcome of Brexit was not what was promised. It was one of the big factors there, along with the NHS I believe. On your first point, the architect of the Brexit that was delivered is not likely to be that welcome among people who see what he did as a big problem. |
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Post by evergreenadam on May 1, 2022 9:17:12 GMT
Media speculation that David Frost should be the Tory candidate this morning. I imagine the opposition would be satisfied with that. In fact if it was him against Sarah Wollaston it would be a Brexit grudge-match. Not sure that’s the territory Lib Dems would want to play on in a 58% leave seat but campaigning seems to be rooted in how specific sectors such as farming have been shafted by Brexit, with some success in N Shropshire. Does anyone know if there is extensive farming in this seat? Traditionally one of the most Tory voting groups but no longer I suspect. Who is David Frost? |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on May 1, 2022 9:21:41 GMT
Media speculation that David Frost should be the Tory candidate this morning. I imagine the opposition would be satisfied with that. In fact if it was him against Sarah Wollaston it would be a Brexit grudge-match. Not sure that’s the territory Lib Dems would want to play on in a 58% leave seat but campaigning seems to be rooted in how specific sectors such as farming have been shafted by Brexit, with some success in N Shropshire. Does anyone know if there is extensive farming in this seat? Traditionally one of the most Tory voting groups but no longer I suspect. Who is David Frost? Lord Frost |
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aargauer
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Post by aargauer on May 1, 2022 9:24:30 GMT
Frost would likely get the backing of the public in a way that your random anonymous councillor would not - ie the election to a certain extent would be a referendum on him rather than Boris. That said I wouldn't risk it if I was him. Re: farmers - I'm not sure where you are coming from here. I don't see any evidence of movement to the liberals amongst agricultural seats. There clearly was movement in Shropshire North Personally I don't really think by elections are what one should be examining in terms of long term trends. Especially when it's a government party seat being contested as a result of an MP leaving in disgrace. Remember Brecon? The Lib Dems are getting votes in these seats as a vessel for kicking the incumbent rather than their policy platform - you'd need to go to the inner remainy Home Counties for that. Ultimately at 10% in polls it's not credible to argue they have momentum across the map. |
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batman
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Post by batman on May 1, 2022 9:29:31 GMT
Media speculation that David Frost should be the Tory candidate this morning. I imagine the opposition would be satisfied with that. In fact if it was him against Sarah Wollaston it would be a Brexit grudge-match. Not sure that’s the territory Lib Dems would want to play on in a 58% leave seat but campaigning seems to be rooted in how specific sectors such as farming have been shafted by Brexit, with some success in N Shropshire. Does anyone know if there is extensive farming in this seat? Traditionally one of the most Tory voting groups but no longer I suspect. he'd give up his peerage to fight & lose a by-election? that sounds like bollocks to me. |
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aargauer
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Post by aargauer on May 1, 2022 9:33:03 GMT
Media speculation that David Frost should be the Tory candidate this morning. I imagine the opposition would be satisfied with that. In fact if it was him against Sarah Wollaston it would be a Brexit grudge-match. Not sure that’s the territory Lib Dems would want to play on in a 58% leave seat but campaigning seems to be rooted in how specific sectors such as farming have been shafted by Brexit, with some success in N Shropshire. Does anyone know if there is extensive farming in this seat? Traditionally one of the most Tory voting groups but no longer I suspect. he'd give up his peerage to fight & lose a by-election? that sounds like bollocks to me. I certainly think he'd have a chance but agreed it's not worth the risk from his perspective. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on May 1, 2022 9:35:38 GMT
Also, pretty unusually, the Lib Dem group of 11 on Mid Devon are all male, so they may struggle their female local councillor candidate! There are 4 Lib Dem ladies on East Devon, all from outside of this constituency, 2 of whom are probably at least in theory possibles.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 1, 2022 9:53:35 GMT
I would agree with the point made that the Conservatives should go for a quick election with a local female candidate. The question is whether they have got a potential local female candidate. In terms of Labour, they would do well to give Jake Bonetta from Honiton a run. He’s about 22 and gained a district council seat in Honiton last year. He is Uber active and has the support of the well drilled Exeter Labour machine. The vacancy in Exeter has probably come 10 years too early for him. Exeter Labour could run a serious campaign here, but if they did they would probably secure a Conservative hold so won’t. I think there is a bit of downplaying of Lib Dem expectations here. Apart from perhaps a spell from about 2007-15, the Lib Dems would have won a by election here at most points in the last 35 years. I think it’s there to lose and I would amazed if they don’t win. Bonetta may be being "reserved" for the Central Devon seat (or whatever its replacement is) which Labour may well see as a genuine medium term prospect. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on May 1, 2022 10:04:50 GMT
There clearly was movement in Shropshire North Personally I don't really think by elections are what one should be examining in terms of long term trends. Especially when it's a government party seat being contested as a result of an MP leaving in disgrace. Remember Brecon? The Lib Dems are getting votes in these seats as a vessel for kicking the incumbent rather than their policy platform - you'd need to go to the inner remainy Home Counties for that. Ultimately at 10% in polls it's not credible to argue they have momentum across the map. If the Conservatives have a 1997 style meltdown in the 2024 election then it’s possible that the Lib Dems can hold their by election gains, in any other circumstances it’s very unlikely. Its even harder in Brecon, North Shropshire and Tiverton where part of the reason for the gain is the previous Tory MP and that person is no longer a factor. As has been discussed before, the benefit of by election gains is momentum and some press coverage, which is a massive boost for the Lib Dems who otherwise don’t get that much. Its also a fact that by elections are the time to get dull local councillors into parliament, not future cabinet ministers or party leaders. The down side of that Is easier to cope with for the Conservatives or Labour where it’s 1 or 2 out of 300 who are perhaps not the most able local councillors, but it makes more of an impact on the Lib Dems. |
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cogload
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Post by cogload on May 1, 2022 10:25:46 GMT
Media speculation that David Frost should be the Tory candidate this morning. I imagine the opposition would be satisfied with that. In fact if it was him against Sarah Wollaston it would be a Brexit grudge-match. Not sure that’s the territory Lib Dems would want to play on in a 58% leave seat but campaigning seems to be rooted in how specific sectors such as farming have been shafted by Brexit, with some success in N Shropshire. Does anyone know if there is extensive farming in this seat? Traditionally one of the most Tory voting groups but no longer I suspect. Lots of small family farms. |
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