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Post by southernliberal on Apr 30, 2022 18:23:13 GMT
Have seen a few comments already saying the Lib Dems are the favourites (likely looking at result in North Shropshire) and would really like to caution on this.
There's certain things that went really right for the Lib Dems in North Shropshire that aren't might not or won't happen here:
Conservatives picked a weak candidate who was able to be easily painted as a carpetbagger - I'd expect the Tories to learn there lesson
While we start in third place in both, in North Shropshire we were able to point to the May 2021 local election results in the area to show we were the real challengers as we'd come second in votes (even though we didn't win any cllrs, but had many many close calls where we narrowly lost) - this made it easier to squeeze the Labour vote and show us as a credible party, but don't expect us to be able to do this in as clear cut a way
Labour were also incredibly weak locally In North Shropshire, they didn't even run candidates in most wards in May 2021 elections there. Compared to this part of Devon where there are existing Labour cllrs so a base of support and level of infrastructure for the party will exist - again, this makes it harder to squeeze the Labour vote
Don't get me wrong, I'm very confident it will be a fight between the Conservative and Lib Dems, and getting into 2nd from 3rd will be relatively easy, but saying we are the favourites is getting ahead of ourselves I think
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Post by Ron Swanson on Apr 30, 2022 18:44:45 GMT
I’ve seen a tweet from Mike Smithson saying that Sarah Wollaston would be a good candidate…
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on Apr 30, 2022 18:46:42 GMT
I’ve seen a tweet from Mike Smithson saying that Sarah Wollaston would be a good candidate… ...if the Lib Dems want to lose. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 30, 2022 18:48:03 GMT
Have seen a few comments already saying the Lib Dems are the favourites (likely looking at result in North Shropshire) and would really like to caution on this. There's certain things that went really right for the Lib Dems in North Shropshire that aren't might not or won't happen here: Conservatives picked a weak candidate who was able to be easily painted as a carpetbagger - I'd expect the Tories to learn there lesson While we start in third place in both, in North Shropshire we were able to point to the May 2021 local election results in the area to show we were the real challengers as we'd come second in votes (even though we didn't win any cllrs, but had many many close calls where we narrowly lost) - this made it easier to squeeze the Labour vote and show us as a credible party, but don't expect us to be able to do this in as clear cut a way Labour were also incredibly weak locally In North Shropshire, they didn't even run candidates in most wards in May 2021 elections there. Compared to this part of Devon where there are existing Labour cllrs so a base of support and level of infrastructure for the party will exist - again, this makes it harder to squeeze the Labour vote Don't get me wrong, I'm very confident it will be a fight between the Conservative and Lib Dems, and getting into 2nd from 3rd will be relatively easy, but saying we are the favourites is getting ahead of ourselves I think Though the more Labour voters in the seat who hear that the LDs are the favourites, or at least real contenders, the better. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 30, 2022 19:05:59 GMT
I’ve seen a tweet from Mike Smithson saying that Sarah Wollaston would be a good candidate… ...if the Lib Dems want to lose. Yeah, certainly not convinced with that suggestion. She might make a good byelection candidate for the LibDems in some places, but not here. (despite its proximity to her old seat) |
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Post by aargauer on Apr 30, 2022 19:14:36 GMT
...if the Lib Dems want to lose. Yeah, certainly not convinced with that suggestion. She might make a good byelection candidate for the LibDems in some places, but not here. (despite its proximity to her old seat) Id see her as perfect for Wakefield. |
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Post by johnhemming on Apr 30, 2022 19:21:17 GMT
...if the Lib Dems want to lose. Why is that? |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Apr 30, 2022 19:26:40 GMT
...if the Lib Dems want to lose. Why is that? She's a real marmite character. I appreciate you might know her personally so have a different view. I campaigned for her in 2010, which I later regretted, and even then her capacity to irritate people was obvious: I don't think she's a good fit for a Devon seat anymore. |
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Post by aargauer on Apr 30, 2022 20:29:34 GMT
She's a real marmite character. I appreciate you might know her personally so have a different view. I campaigned for her in 2010, which I later regretted, and even then her capacity to irritate people was obvious: I don't think she's a good fit for a Devon seat anymore. Shes used up her political capital. As have all the change uk lot. I think the Lib Dem's will go for someone fresh and local rather than some tired failed has been. |
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Post by johnloony on May 1, 2022 1:38:15 GMT
The swing which happened in Shropshire North, if applied to Tiverton & Honiton: LD 52% Con 29% Lab 7%
The swing which happened in Chesham & Amersham, if applied to Tiverton & Honiton: LD 45% Con 40% Lab 8%
I predict: LD 50% Con 34% Lab 9%
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Post by johnloony on May 1, 2022 1:40:21 GMT
I’m intrigued by his reference to tractors in his resignation interview. The mind boggles although calendars for heavy machinery makers used to feature scantily-clad women! When he talked about a website with a similar name, I was wondering if "traction" might be the word in queestion. I have no idea if "traction" means something in pornographyland or not. |
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Post by tonyhill on May 1, 2022 6:31:39 GMT
I would think it likely that the Conservatives have learned by their mistakes in North Shropshire and will go for a quick election with a female candidate. It is going to be more difficult for the LibDems to establish main challenger status over Labour than N Shropshire, although clearly it is a seat that is unwinnable by Labour, so unless the Tories do something really stupid between now and polling day (admittedly a distinct possibility with the shambles they are making of running the country) I think they will hold the seat with the LibDems a reasonably close second. As someone else said, at least that might help towards restoring the perception of the LibDems as being the main opposition to the Conservatives in the South West.
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Post by batman on May 1, 2022 7:16:38 GMT
I disagree. While in 1997 Labour was fairly close to winning North Shropshire, the Lib Dems were fairly close to winning Tiverton & Honiton, although I accept that the boundaries were a bit different, and slightly more favourable to the Lib Dems. As it happens, both seats swung to the Tories in 2001 by noticeably more than the national average, and until 2021-2 neither seat has been close again. Given the ease with which the Lib Dems won in North Shropshire, a seat which was historically more difficult territory for them, and given the fact that the Tories are doing quite a bit (though admittedly not overwhelmingly) worse than they were at the time of that by-election, I think the Lib Dems are clear favourites, despite the expectation management we're seeing from some above. I just don't see the Tories, in the current climate, holding a seat where the Lib Dems historically have had a strong base in the past, Brexit & south-west England realignment notwithstanding. Nobody seriously believes that Labour can win Tiverton & Honiton despite some patches of support in the 2 eponymous towns, so voters will turn to the party that can possibly beat the Tories. That will be the Lib Dems on this occasion.
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Post by andrewp on May 1, 2022 7:27:55 GMT
I wrote our profile of Tiverton and Honiton a couple of years ago, so am copying it here for info. It’s a bit of a weird constituency as the 2 towns don’t have that much in common, other than being in the orbit of Exeter. It doesn’t look too bad on a map but There is no main road between the two towns. Honiton is on the A30 and has the links to the East Devon coast, Tiverton is on the way from the M5 to North Devon.
Tiverton and Honiton.
Tiverton and Honiton was a constituency created in 1997 and sounded like a merging of 2 ancient constituencies. That was misleading however, as the 1997 version was essentially the old Tiverton seat with 8500 voters moved in from the Honiton constituency from the eponymous town itself.
The boundary change in the fifth boundary review enacted for the 2010 election however equalised the two halves of this constituency. Some 18000 voters from the Western end of the old Tiverton section around Crediton were moved into the new Central Devon seat, whilst the ‘Honiton section’ welcomed 22000 voters around Axminister and Seaton giving this seat a Coastline on the English Channel at Seaton and Beer for the first time.
The two halves of this seat aren’t particularly obvious bedfellows, the main road between Tiverton and Honiton is a not a particularly well used one. Both halves of the seat are united by being Exeter’s rural hinterland.
Tiverton is the larger town with a population of 20,000. It’s a fairly typical rural market town on the River Exe. Tiverton was an early Wool trade town, and indeed one of the early wool Merchants Peter Blundell bequeathed the funds to build Blundell’s school, an Independent school set on a hill to the West of the Town.
Honiton, has a population of about 12000 and is 17 miles East of Exeter. Honiton is known for lace making, which was introduced by Flemish immigrants in the Elizabethan era. It became known as Honiton lace. Honiton has a mile long wide main street, reminiscent of a French Town and a number of popular markets.
The coastline gained in the last boundary review gained the seat its 3rd largest town- the slightly down at heel coastal resort of Seaton
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All of this territory has a history of electing Independents at local level. However in 2019, the Conservatives held up quite well in this constituency,with the wards in this seat electing 24 Conservative councillors, 17, Independents, 5 Lib Dems and 1 Green. The Independent success since 2015 in the East Devon district has largely come in the East Devon constituency rather than this one. Honiton itself elected 3 Conservative, 1 Lib Dem and 1 Independent councillor last year.
Tiverton has a rather unusual ward pattern where all 4 wards covering part of the town extend way into the neighbouring countryside. Those 4 wards elected 4 Conservatives, 4 independents and 3 Lib Dems in 2019
Tiverton town is the least Conservative part of the seat, and in 1997 when the Lib Dems came close, they would have been well ahead in Tiverton and had particular strength in Crediton ( no longer in the seat), but also would have been ahead in Honiton as well. The Labour vote of 11654 in 2019 would have been strongest in Tiverton town, in the council estates in the North and West of the town particularly
Politically both Tiverton and Honiton had long serving Conservative MP’s in Sir Robin Maxwell-Hyslop ( 1960-92) and Sir Peter Emery ( 1967-2001) respectively. Angela Browning succeeded Sir Robin in Tiverton in 1992, and the new seat had a notional majority of 11600. Mrs Browning held on against the Lib Dems by 1653 in 1997. This seat probably did not fall to the Lib Dems unlike neighbouring Taunton Deane or nearby Newton Abbott because the towns are smaller, and the public sector smaller. Mrs Browning increased her majority until her retirement in 2010, when she was succeeded by South West Euro MP and Somerset farmer Neil Parish. He seems a good diligent MP and a good fit for this seat. UKIP managed to come second here in 2015, and unusually for a South West rural seat. Labour have come second here in 2017 and 2019, getting a very impressive 27% in 2017 before falling back 8% in 2019. Mr Parish’s majority now stands at a whopping 24239 though.
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Post by andrewp on May 1, 2022 7:35:39 GMT
I would agree with the point made that the Conservatives should go for a quick election with a local female candidate. The question is whether they have got a potential local female candidate.
In terms of Labour, they would do well to give Jake Bonetta from Honiton a run. He’s about 22 and gained a district council seat in Honiton last year. He is Uber active and has the support of the well drilled Exeter Labour machine. The vacancy in Exeter has probably come 10 years too early for him. Exeter Labour could run a serious campaign here, but if they did they would probably secure a Conservative hold so won’t.
I think there is a bit of downplaying of Lib Dem expectations here. Apart from perhaps a spell from about 2007-15, the Lib Dems would have won a by election here at most points in the last 35 years. I think it’s there to lose and I would amazed if they don’t win.
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Post by markgoodair on May 1, 2022 7:39:55 GMT
Yeah, certainly not convinced with that suggestion. She might make a good byelection candidate for the LibDems in some places, but not here. (despite its proximity to her old seat) Id see her as perfect for Wakefield. Considering that we have had our selection meeting and her name wasn't down that simply isn't going to happen. |
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Post by carolus on May 1, 2022 7:42:29 GMT
Was it not five Lib Dem councillors elected in the constituency in 2019?
East Devon: Honiton St Michaels
Mid Devon: 2x Castle, Cranmore, Upper Culm
Since then, Honiton St Michaels and one in Castle lost in byelections, and one gained in Cullompton South.
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Post by finsobruce on May 1, 2022 7:42:35 GMT
Id see her as perfect for Wakefield. Considering that we have had our selection meeting and her name wasn't down that simply isn't going to happen. I don't think that aargauer was being entirely serious in his suggestion Mark.  |
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Post by greatkingrat on May 1, 2022 7:44:54 GMT
Where does most of the constituency end up under current proposals? The main successor seat is the one simply called Honiton, which contains the bulk of this seat plus Ottery St Mary and Sidmouth from the existing East Devon. Tiverton itself moves to a new cross-border seat with much of western Somerset. I suspect any LD MP elected in the by-election would prefer to run in Tiverton & Minehead at the next general election rather than Honiton. |
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Post by Ron Swanson on May 1, 2022 7:56:54 GMT
I would agree with the point made that the Conservatives should go for a quick election with a local female candidate. The question is whether they have got a potential local female candidate. In terms of Labour, they would do well to give Jake Bonetta from Honiton a run. He’s about 22 and gained a district council seat in Honiton last year. He is Uber active and has the support of the well drilled Exeter Labour machine. The vacancy in Exeter has probably come 10 years too early for him. Exeter Labour could run a serious campaign here, but if they did they would probably secure a Conservative hold so won’t. I think there is a bit of downplaying of Lib Dem expectations here. Apart from perhaps a spell from about 2007-15, the Lib Dems would have won a by election here at most points in the last 35 years. I think it’s there to lose and I would amazed if they don’t win. The Lib Dems are likely to be on a high after their two previous by-election wins, whilst Tory activists will be blunted by large losses at the local elections. And let us be honest… their fairly high profile party chairman is a bit of a knob isn’t he? Wouldn’t inspire me to give up my time trying to get a candidate elected. The current generation of Tory cabinet ministers has reached the end of the line, and needs to be replaced. I don’t see much point carrying on any longer. |
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