|
|
Post by jamesdoyle on Apr 30, 2022 13:12:52 GMT
Like North Shropshire and Old Bexley & Sidcup, this and Wakefield could make a good pair, with LibDems and Labour tacitly giving each other an easy ride in one.
|
|
|
|
Post by evergreenadam on Apr 30, 2022 13:36:14 GMT
Neil Parish is expected to resign his seat after the revelations about his ahem viewing habits in the Commons chamber, according to the BBC: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61284686The result in 2019 was Conservative: 60.2%, Labour: 19.5%, Liberal Democrats: 14.8%, Green: 3.8%, UKIP: 1.6% He has not officially resigned just yet. This will also be likely the last election Tiverton & Honiton experiences as boundary changes will definitely split it up. Where does most of the constituency end up under current proposals? |
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
|
Post by YL on Apr 30, 2022 13:41:14 GMT
He has not officially resigned just yet. This will also be likely the last election Tiverton & Honiton experiences as boundary changes will definitely split it up. Where does most of the constituency end up under current proposals? The main successor seat is the one simply called Honiton, which contains the bulk of this seat plus Ottery St Mary and Sidmouth from the existing East Devon. Tiverton itself moves to a new cross-border seat with much of western Somerset. |
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 30, 2022 13:43:18 GMT
Used to get over 30% pre coalition and missed it by 1500 in 1997 is hardly no history. Not sure you can get a good bar chart out of the 1997 result though. Looks like it’s been Tory held since 1923. So some underlying potential but the world has long moved on and I doubt there is any remaining infrastructure for parliamentary campaigning here. If our by-election operation was dependent on any remaining local infrastructure it would be a strange state of affairs. Sincerely, The Guy who was Constituency Chairman for the Crewe & Nantwich by-election. |
|
|
|
Post by carolus on Apr 30, 2022 13:45:38 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 30, 2022 14:20:53 GMT
Will he manage to do it before Wakefield? |
|
|
|
Post by willpower3 on Apr 30, 2022 14:36:25 GMT
The Lib Dems not managing second place here in 2019 of all elections just shows how much the Coalition weakened them. However I'd probably make them favourites to win the by-election.
|
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on Apr 30, 2022 14:40:07 GMT
I’m intrigued by his reference to tractors in his resignation interview. The mind boggles although calendars for heavy machinery makers used to feature scantily-clad women!
|
|
|
|
Post by tonyhill on Apr 30, 2022 15:04:58 GMT
Calendars for every industry used to feature scantily clad women. I used to put them up myself until my girlfriend persuaded me to see the error of my ways. The fact that I saw nothing wrong with them speaks volumes about how deeply ingrained sexism was in those days (early 80s).
|
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Apr 30, 2022 15:08:50 GMT
Calendars for every industry used to feature scantily clad women. I used to put them up myself until my girlfriend persuaded me to see the error of my ways. The fact that I saw nothing wrong with them speaks volumes about how deeply ingrained sexism was in those days (early 80s). And those display cards for packets of peanuts.
Big D?
|
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,580 
Member is Online
|
Post by andrewp on Apr 30, 2022 15:42:36 GMT
Neil Parish was the deputy leader of Sedgemoor District council from 1989-95, when he lost his seat to the Lib Dem’s by 6 votes.
He was, locally, widely assumed to be the heir apparent for Bridgwater when Tom King retired and was expecting to be their candidate in 1997. During the Conservative depths of that parliament, the local party thought they would lose with a new candidate and persuaded King to fight the 1997 election. There was still an assumption after that that Parish was the preferred successor, but then got elected as a Euro MP in 1999 and ruled himself out of Bridgwater.
He has always lived near Bridgwater.
|
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Apr 30, 2022 16:11:33 GMT
Neil Parish was the deputy leader of Sedgemoor District council from 1989-95, when he lost his seat to the Lib Dem’s by 6 votes. He was, locally, widely assumed to be the heir apparent for Bridgwater when Tom King retired and was expecting to be their candidate in 1997. During the Conservative depths of that parliament, the local party thought they would lose with a new candidate and persuaded King to fight the 1997 election. There was still an assumption after that that Parish was the preferred successor, but then got elected as a Euro MP in 1999 and ruled himself out of Bridgwater. He has always lived near Bridgwater. Had Labour voters in Bridgwater voted tactically, Tom King would have lost Bridgwater in 1997. The Liberal Democrats missed by only 1,796 votes and Labour's vote share increase was only narrowly below the percentage margin the Liberal Democrats missed by. |
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Apr 30, 2022 16:13:09 GMT
Like North Shropshire and Old Bexley & Sidcup, this and Wakefield could make a good pair, with LibDems and Labour tacitly giving each other an easy ride in one. Yes, with the key difference being that Labour will almost certainly gain Wakefield on current polling figures (they had no chance in Old Bexley & Sidcup). |
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,580
Member is Online
|
Post by andrewp on Apr 30, 2022 16:29:28 GMT
Neil Parish was the deputy leader of Sedgemoor District council from 1989-95, when he lost his seat to the Lib Dem’s by 6 votes. He was, locally, widely assumed to be the heir apparent for Bridgwater when Tom King retired and was expecting to be their candidate in 1997. During the Conservative depths of that parliament, the local party thought they would lose with a new candidate and persuaded King to fight the 1997 election. There was still an assumption after that that Parish was the preferred successor, but then got elected as a Euro MP in 1999 and ruled himself out of Bridgwater. He has always lived near Bridgwater. Had Labour voters in Bridgwater voted tactically, Tom King would have lost Bridgwater in 1997. The Liberal Democrats missed by only 1,796 votes and Labour's vote share increase was only narrowly below the percentage margin the Liberal Democrats missed by. The Lib Dems have never been able to crack the Labour vote in Bridgwater. A Bridgwater by election would be interesting to see if they could. |
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Apr 30, 2022 16:38:53 GMT
Had Labour voters in Bridgwater voted tactically, Tom King would have lost Bridgwater in 1997. The Liberal Democrats missed by only 1,796 votes and Labour's vote share increase was only narrowly below the percentage margin the Liberal Democrats missed by. The Lib Dems have never been able to crack the Labour vote in Bridgwater. A Bridgwater by election would be interesting to see if they could. Or rather Bridgwater & West Somerset as it is now. |
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299
|
Post by maxque on Apr 30, 2022 17:28:59 GMT
Not sure you can get a good bar chart out of the 1997 result though. Looks like it’s been Tory held since 1923. So some underlying potential but the world has long moved on and I doubt there is any remaining infrastructure for parliamentary campaigning here. If our by-election operation was dependent on any remaining local infrastructure it would be a strange state of affairs. Sincerely, The Guy who was Constituency Chairman for the Crewe & Nantwich by-election. On that subject, number of councillors in the constituency by authority: Mid Devon: Con 13 Ind 8 (2/2 in Cullompton N, 1/1 in Cullompton Outer, 2/3 in Lower Culm, Tiverton Westexe, 1/3 in Tiverton Lowman LD 4 (1/2 in Tiverton Castle, Cullompton S, Upper Culm, 1/3 in Tiverton Cranmore) Grn 1 (1/2 in Canonsleigh) East Devon : Con 11 IEDA 5 (1/1 in Yarty, 2/3 in Seaton, 1/2 in Coly Valley, 1/3 in Axminster) Ind 3 (1/1 in Beer and Branscombe, Trinity, 1/2 in Honiton St Paul) Lab 1 (1/3 in Honiton St Michael) |
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Apr 30, 2022 18:08:19 GMT
Like North Shropshire and Old Bexley & Sidcup, this and Wakefield could make a good pair, with LibDems and Labour tacitly giving each other an easy ride in one. If there was going to be a Somerton & Frome by-election the Tories would probably like to hold it on the same day as the T&H by-election in order to split LD resources. But it doesn't look like the MP for S&F is going anywhere atm. |
|
|
|
Post by southernliberal on Apr 30, 2022 18:14:19 GMT
Like North Shropshire and Old Bexley & Sidcup, this and Wakefield could make a good pair, with LibDems and Labour tacitly giving each other an easy ride in one. If there was going to be a Somerton & Frome by-election the Tories would probably like to hold it on the same day as the T&H by-election in order to split LD resources. But it doesn't look like the MP for S&F is going anywhere atm. I think if these elections were on the same day, the Lib Dems would be pragmatic with resources and focus on Somerton and Frome. |
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,580
Member is Online
|
Post by andrewp on Apr 30, 2022 18:20:05 GMT
If there was going to be a Somerton & Frome by-election the Tories would probably like to hold it on the same day as the T&H by-election in order to split LD resources. But it doesn't look like the MP for S&F is going anywhere atm. I think if these elections were on the same day, the Lib Dems would be pragmatic with resources and focus on Somerton and Frome. I would think, that at the moment, if held on the same day, the Lib Dems would gain both. |
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on Apr 30, 2022 18:22:20 GMT
Easy Lib Dem gain, easy Conservative regain at the general
|
|
