Tiverton and Honiton

[xenon]

Neil Parish is expected to resign his seat after the revelations about his ahem viewing habits in the Commons chamber, according to the BBC:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61284686

The result in 2019 was
Conservative: 60.2%, Labour: 19.5%, Liberal Democrats: 14.8%, Green: 3.8%, UKIP: 1.6%

[greenhert]

Apr 30, 2022 12:12:45 GMT xenon said:

Neil Parish is expected to resign his seat after the revelations about his ahem viewing habits in the Commons chamber, according to the BBC:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61284686

The result in 2019 was
Conservative: 60.2%, Labour: 19.5%, Liberal Democrats: 14.8%, Green: 3.8%, UKIP: 1.6%

He has not officially resigned just yet. This will also be likely the last election Tiverton & Honiton experiences as boundary changes will definitely split it up.

[Deleted]

The party deserves to lose this if it forced him out.

[monksfield]

I'd fancy a strong LibDem performance from third here. Used to threaten in this constituency in pre coalition days.

[froome]

Apr 30, 2022 12:19:11 GMT @johnyorks said:

The party deserves to lose this if it forced him out.

Quite. I don't understand how this could possibly be considered to be a resigning issue.

[froome]

Apr 30, 2022 12:20:00 GMT monksfield said:

I'd fancy a strong LibDem performance from third here. Used to threaten in this constituency in pre coalition days.

I'm surprised that they came behind Labour last time. I would expect the Lib Dems to go for another North Shropshire, in a constituency that is similar in many ways but potentially better for them.

[tonyhill]

I can only assume that Mr Parish has decided that staying as an MP isn't worth the candle and that he has other things that he can do with the rest of his life that don't necessitate him being in the public eye and enduring the mild derision he would attract. This government has the feel of being fairly pointless most of the time anyway - working for some cause that feels more rewarding might make him happier.

[iain]

The Lib Dems may start as favourites after North Shropshire, so this must be a good opportunity for the Tories to get plaudits if they can hold it (which in normal circumstances they of course easily would)?

[ricmk]

The danger of high expectations.

This is massively difficult for the Lib Dems: no history, third place, no strong local government presence, no Brexit alignment to play into (58% Leave) rural and a long way from big cities so tricky to get people to and around.

Not saying LDs won’t have a good go, but just because the impossible has been done twice already this Parliament, doesn’t make it easy again. Especially if the Tories finally learn how to select a candidate who isn’t a total liability.

As for whether Parish should go, if he clicked on a link in error and promptly closed it, that’s one thing. But he doesn’t seem able to confidently say that, which makes me think it’s another thing, that would be seen as gross misconduct in any other workplace.

[bjornhattan]

Apr 30, 2022 12:31:41 GMT froome said:

Apr 30, 2022 12:20:00 GMT monksfield said:

I'd fancy a strong LibDem performance from third here. Used to threaten in this constituency in pre coalition days.

I'm surprised that they came behind Labour last time. I would expect the Lib Dems to go for another North Shropshire, in a constituency that is similar in many ways but potentially better for them.

Labour have had some surprising results in the area - including a narrow defeat in the Honiton and Feniton division in May 2021 followed up by a by-election gain in Honiton St Michael's ward two months later. Whether that's down to assiduous local campaigning or demographic change from Exeter overspill, I'm not sure.

[jamesdoyle]

Apr 30, 2022 12:41:02 GMT ricmk said:

As for whether Parish should go, if he clicked on a link in error and promptly closed it, that’s one thing. But he doesn’t seem able to confidently say that, which makes me think it’s another thing, that would be seen as gross misconduct in any other workplace.

Aiui, there are multiple incidents here, both in the Commons chamber and in a select committee. And multiple accusers, who are Tory MPs too.
Accidental clicking is not a credible defence in the circumstances.

[greenhert]

Apr 30, 2022 12:41:02 GMT ricmk said:

The danger of high expectations.

This is massively difficult for the Lib Dems: no history, third place, no strong local government presence, no Brexit alignment to play into (58% Leave) rural and a long way from big cities so tricky to get people to and around.

Not saying LDs won’t have a good go, but just because the impossible has been done twice already this Parliament, doesn’t make it easy again. Especially if the Tories finally learn how to select a candidate who isn’t a total liability.

As for whether Parish should go, if he clicked on a link in error and promptly closed it, that’s one thing. But he doesn’t seem able to confidently say that, which makes me think it’s another thing, that would be seen as gross misconduct in any other workplace.

These factors were all in play in the North Shropshire by-election last year, amusingly enough. The Liberal Democrats still managed to win it, and on a 34.1% swing.

[jamesdoyle]

Apr 30, 2022 12:47:33 GMT Andrew_S said:

A bit harsh if it does turn out to be accidental.

We posted at the same time! I've now checked, and there are two separate accusations from different MPs (both Tory, fwiw) in different locations, and both say it was not momentary, but continuing. I think it's pretty safe to say accidental doesn't cut it.

[Andrew_S]

Apr 30, 2022 12:52:32 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Apr 30, 2022 12:47:33 GMT Andrew_S said:

A bit harsh if it does turn out to be accidental.

We posted at the same time! I've now checked, and there are two separate accusations from different MPs (both Tory, fwiw) in different locations, and both say it was not momentary, but continuing. I think it's pretty safe to say accidental doesn't cut it.

According to Sam Coates of Sky News the reason he has to go is because Tory MPs don't like the way "he kept quiet and allowed speculation to form about Tory colleagues".

twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1520369150287306752

[monksfield]

Apr 30, 2022 12:41:02 GMT ricmk said:

The danger of high expectations.

This is massively difficult for the Lib Dems: no history, third place, no strong local government presence, no Brexit alignment to play into (58% Leave) rural and a long way from big cities so tricky to get people to and around.

Not saying LDs won’t have a good go, but just because the impossible has been done twice already this Parliament, doesn’t make it easy again. Especially if the Tories finally learn how to select a candidate who isn’t a total liability.

As for whether Parish should go, if he clicked on a link in error and promptly closed it, that’s one thing. But he doesn’t seem able to confidently say that, which makes me think it’s another thing, that would be seen as gross misconduct in any other workplace.

Used to get over 30% pre coalition and missed it by 1500 in 1997 is hardly no history.

[jamesdoyle]

Apr 30, 2022 12:54:28 GMT Andrew_S said:

Apr 30, 2022 12:52:32 GMT jamesdoyle said:

We posted at the same time! I've now checked, and there are two separate accusations from different MPs (both Tory, fwiw) in different locations, and both say it was not momentary, but continuing. I think it's pretty safe to say accidental doesn't cut it.

According to Sam Coates of Sky News the reason he has to go is because Tory MPs don't like the way "he kept quiet and allowed speculation to form about Tory colleagues".

twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1520369150287306752

This is entirely speculation but I wonder if one of the female MPs might have said take this seriously and he goes, or I do. And if she was in a more marginal constituency...

[ricmk]

Apr 30, 2022 12:56:26 GMT monksfield said:

Apr 30, 2022 12:41:02 GMT ricmk said:

The danger of high expectations.

This is massively difficult for the Lib Dems: no history, third place, no strong local government presence, no Brexit alignment to play into (58% Leave) rural and a long way from big cities so tricky to get people to and around.

Not saying LDs won’t have a good go, but just because the impossible has been done twice already this Parliament, doesn’t make it easy again. Especially if the Tories finally learn how to select a candidate who isn’t a total liability.

As for whether Parish should go, if he clicked on a link in error and promptly closed it, that’s one thing. But he doesn’t seem able to confidently say that, which makes me think it’s another thing, that would be seen as gross misconduct in any other workplace.

Used to get over 30% pre coalition and missed it by 1500 in 1997 is hardly no history.

Not sure you can get a good bar chart out of the 1997 result though. Looks like it’s been Tory held since 1923. So some underlying potential but the world has long moved on and I doubt there is any remaining infrastructure for parliamentary campaigning here.

[ricmk]

Apr 30, 2022 12:50:26 GMT greenhert said:

Apr 30, 2022 12:41:02 GMT ricmk said:

The danger of high expectations.

This is massively difficult for the Lib Dems: no history, third place, no strong local government presence, no Brexit alignment to play into (58% Leave) rural and a long way from big cities so tricky to get people to and around.

Not saying LDs won’t have a good go, but just because the impossible has been done twice already this Parliament, doesn’t make it easy again. Especially if the Tories finally learn how to select a candidate who isn’t a total liability.

As for whether Parish should go, if he clicked on a link in error and promptly closed it, that’s one thing. But he doesn’t seem able to confidently say that, which makes me think it’s another thing, that would be seen as gross misconduct in any other workplace.

These factors were all in play in the North Shropshire by-election last year, amusingly enough. The Liberal Democrats still managed to win it, and on a 34.1% swing.

That’s exactly my point though. Just because we walked on water back in Dec, doesn’t mean it will happen again. We’ve lost sight of quite how exceptional that campaign was. One factor I’d add is that N Shropshire Greens had potential and councillors but chose to go soft (unlike the prats in Chesham and Amersham) and this is another place where the Greens could run an effective spoiler if they wanted to.

[andrewp]

If he goes, how ridiculous.

If it happens, The Lib Dem’s will win the by election easily.

[neilm]

Apr 30, 2022 12:41:02 GMT ricmk said:

The danger of high expectations.

This is massively difficult for the Lib Dems: no history, third place, no strong local government presence, no Brexit alignment to play into (58% Leave) rural and a long way from big cities so tricky to get people to and around.

Not saying LDs won’t have a good go, but just because the impossible has been done twice already this Parliament, doesn’t make it easy again. Especially if the Tories finally learn how to select a candidate who isn’t a total liability.

As for whether Parish should go, if he clicked on a link in error and promptly closed it, that’s one thing. But he doesn’t seem able to confidently say that, which makes me think it’s another thing, that would be seen as gross misconduct in any other workplace.

This isn't aimed at ricmk, rather it is a general comment.

This should be put to bed. Some members know specifically what I do for a living: in sum, I deal with employment law matters and managing the legal implications of dismissals.

The people saying that this would be seen as GMC in any workplace, and by implication that it would lead to dismissal (GMC doesn't actually imply dismissal, by the way) either think their own experience is reflective, or that their own industry is reflective, or that there is a relevant law here or that there is a baseline standard for misconduct. None of those things are true. There are numerous cases where people have been guilty of watching porn at work, and have kept their jobs, in various industries. It certainly isn't an 'in any workplace' thing.