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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on May 1, 2022 10:41:40 GMT
I would agree with the point made that the Conservatives should go for a quick election with a local female candidate. The question is whether they have got a potential local female candidate. In terms of Labour, they would do well to give Jake Bonetta from Honiton a run. He’s about 22 and gained a district council seat in Honiton last year. He is Uber active and has the support of the well drilled Exeter Labour machine. The vacancy in Exeter has probably come 10 years too early for him. Exeter Labour could run a serious campaign here, but if they did they would probably secure a Conservative hold so won’t. I think there is a bit of downplaying of Lib Dem expectations here. Apart from perhaps a spell from about 2007-15, the Lib Dems would have won a by election here at most points in the last 35 years. I think it’s there to lose and I would amazed if they don’t win. Bonetta may be being "reserved" for the Central Devon seat (or whatever its replacement is) which Labour may well see as a genuine medium term prospect. Central Devon is one of the reasons I am reluctant for Labour just to "give up" here. I recognise the party is highly unlikely to be successful but given there will be several seats throughout the south west that are potential gains at the next election, to my view giving the Liberals a free run sends the wrong signal and may be counter-productive. |
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Post by swindonlad on May 1, 2022 11:24:27 GMT
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on May 1, 2022 12:11:45 GMT
The danger of high expectations. This is massively difficult for the Lib Dems: no history, third place, no strong local government presence, no Brexit alignment to play into (58% Leave) rural and a long way from big cities so tricky to get people to and around. Not saying LDs won’t have a good go, but just because the impossible has been done twice already this Parliament, doesn’t make it easy again. Especially if the Tories finally learn how to select a candidate who isn’t a total liability. As for whether Parish should go, if he clicked on a link in error and promptly closed it, that’s one thing. But he doesn’t seem able to confidently say that, which makes me think it’s another thing, that would be seen as gross misconduct in any other workplace. What protections do MPs have against unfair or constructive dismissal? The same as for any fixed-term con-tractor. Vroom vroom! |
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Post by tucson on May 1, 2022 13:28:26 GMT
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on May 1, 2022 13:44:46 GMT
The result will be on a Friday... |
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Post by WestCountryRadical on May 1, 2022 14:31:29 GMT
The reason for the by-election, and the Conservatives' poor position in national polling, and past Lib Dem strength in the constituency makes the Lib Dems the favourites. The Lib Dem by-election magic will work just as well here as in North Shropshire and Chesham & Amersham.
The Conservatives surely won't make such a poor choice of candidate as in Shropshire, so candidate selection will be crucial for the Lib Dems. I note that their previous PPC, orthopaedic surgeon John Timperley, has since joined the Greens, saying they had "almost identical policies", but "better vocalised"
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Post by mattb on May 1, 2022 15:28:10 GMT
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 1, 2022 20:44:43 GMT
That seems quite a big deal, in terms of establishing who the challenger is. |
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aargauer
Conservative
Posts: 5,979
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Post by aargauer on May 1, 2022 20:46:05 GMT
Are the Lib Dems happy to be described as "left of centre"?
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,261
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Post by polupolu on May 1, 2022 21:26:00 GMT
I have no problem with that :-)
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Post by johnloony on May 1, 2022 22:04:37 GMT
That seems quite a big deal, in terms of establishing who the challenger is. I thought she had already said she won't stand again? It would be a flop anyway if she stood in a different constituency anyway. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on May 1, 2022 22:19:45 GMT
That seems quite a big deal, in terms of establishing who the challenger is. I thought she had already said she won't stand again? It would be a flop anyway if she stood in a different constituency anyway. She said in 2019 she didn't know and then left politics in 2021 by retiring from her councillor seat and said she was leaving frontline politics, but, she never said she wouldn't run again. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2022 22:31:00 GMT
Bonetta may be being "reserved" for the Central Devon seat (or whatever its replacement is) which Labour may well see as a genuine medium term prospect. Central Devon is one of the reasons I am reluctant for Labour just to "give up" here. I recognise the party is highly unlikely to be successful but given there will be several seats throughout the south west that are potential gains at the next election, to my view giving the Liberals a free run sends the wrong signal and may be counter-productive. There are lots of towns all over South West England that would be solidly Labour (or at least winnable) if they were anywhere else in the country but because they're in the South West, the Liberals have always fulfilled the role that Labour normally would. With the LibDems having alienated much of that vote over first the coalition and then brexit, it went to UKIP and then the Tories without particularly liking either. This should be ripe pickings for Labour if we can get it right and we need to start putting some proper effort in not giving them over to the LibDems |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
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Post by iain on May 1, 2022 23:06:46 GMT
Central Devon is one of the reasons I am reluctant for Labour just to "give up" here. I recognise the party is highly unlikely to be successful but given there will be several seats throughout the south west that are potential gains at the next election, to my view giving the Liberals a free run sends the wrong signal and may be counter-productive. There are lots of towns all over South West England that would be solidly Labour (or at least winnable) if they were anywhere else in the country but because they're in the South West, the Liberals have always fulfilled the role that Labour normally would. With the LibDems having alienated much of that vote over first the coalition and then brexit, it went to UKIP and then the Tories without particularly liking either. This should be ripe pickings for Labour if we can get it right and we need to start putting some proper effort in not giving them over to the LibDems I think the thing is that this isn’t a demographic that has voted Labour in any great numbers anywhere, but probably needs to going forwards. Labour have historically been an irrelevance in rural areas without heavy industry, where Liberals / Lib Dems have filled the gap, but as the industrial legacy declines Labour needs to win somewhere new. The options are basically richer, metropolitan seats, or poorer rural seats. The decline of the Lib Dems has given (and continues to give) Labour a golden opportunity in the latter group, but Labour has shown little appetite to capitalise on this far. Unfortunately, both Labour and the Lib Dems (excluding Lib Dems in by-elections) show every sign of chasing the first group to the exclusion of the latter, which is probably a recipe for Tory domination. Agree or disagree, the Lib Dems have at least shown a bit of focus in our pursuit of this demographic. Labour, in my view, really needs to make a choice which group they are targeting. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 2, 2022 7:22:22 GMT
That seems quite a big deal, in terms of establishing who the challenger is. I thought she had already said she won't stand again? It would be a flop anyway if she stood in a different constituency anyway. It's not just that she says she won't stand, it is that she has explicitly endorsed the LDs as main challenger. As any Labour members on here can tell us, that's by no means an absolute given (though obviously I'd argue for it.) Of course, also in the mix is Oliver Dowden's amusing decision to talk to the voters about tactical voting and the Mail's bright idea of specifically linking this to the ability to give a smack to Boris Johnson (cf: approval ratings, passim.) |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on May 2, 2022 8:39:47 GMT
The danger of high expectations. This is massively difficult for the Lib Dems: no history, third place, no strong local government presence, no Brexit alignment to play into (58% Leave) rural and a long way from big cities so tricky to get people to and around. Not saying LDs won’t have a good go, but just because the impossible has been done twice already this Parliament, doesn’t make it easy again. Especially if the Tories finally learn how to select a candidate who isn’t a total liability. As for whether Parish should go, if he clicked on a link in error and promptly closed it, that’s one thing. But he doesn’t seem able to confidently say that, which makes me think it’s another thing, that would be seen as gross misconduct in any other workplace. What protections do MPs have against unfair or constructive dismissal? They don't, because they can only be removed by a vote of MPs or by one of a set of specific, legally defined, things (which is also a reason to dismiss people in 'regular' jobs). They don't have protection against constructive dismissal because no one does. It is a choice to resign and you can take it to a tribunal if you think you have a claim (90+% of cases fail though). As MPs don't have an employer, they don't have the opportunity to go to the ET but then MPs hardly ever actually need to resign. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on May 2, 2022 9:14:24 GMT
Bonetta may be being "reserved" for the Central Devon seat (or whatever its replacement is) which Labour may well see as a genuine medium term prospect. Central Devon is one of the reasons I am reluctant for Labour just to "give up" here. I recognise the party is highly unlikely to be successful but given there will be several seats throughout the south west that are potential gains at the next election, to my view giving the Liberals a free run sends the wrong signal and may be counter-productive. Well tbf Labour didn't "give up" in North Shropshire (there's a reasonable case to say they did in Chesham/Amersham) but "force majeure" meant things still went the way they did. Its not unreasonable to see a high possibility of the same happening here. And tbh I am dubious a LibDem gain here would harm the party's prospects in more promising territory (NS shouldn't make Shrewsbury harder to win for us either) |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on May 2, 2022 17:31:28 GMT
In Todays Times, Caroline Nokes is saying that the Conservatives must select a local woman as their candidate. I agree that would be a sensible thing for them to do, but don’t draw attention to it, just let it quietly and naturally happen.
The article completely omits to mention that the constituency had a female Conservative MP for 18 years, which would have been worth mentioning,
The article also suggests that the defeat in Chesham and Amersham would have been less with a female Conservative candidate. That depends on who it was.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
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Post by cogload on May 2, 2022 18:35:26 GMT
Central Devon is one of the reasons I am reluctant for Labour just to "give up" here. I recognise the party is highly unlikely to be successful but given there will be several seats throughout the south west that are potential gains at the next election, to my view giving the Liberals a free run sends the wrong signal and may be counter-productive. Well tbf Labour didn't "give up" in North Shropshire (there's a reasonable case to say they did in Chesham/Amersham) but "force majeure" meant things still went the way they did. Its not unreasonable to see a high possibility of the same happening here. And tbh I am dubious a LibDem gain here would harm the party's prospects in more promising territory (NS shouldn't make Shrewsbury harder to win for us either) Shrewsbury will be high on the target list next time I imagine. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on May 2, 2022 19:29:32 GMT
Shrewsbury will be high on the target list next time I imagine. Some of the biggest winners from the North Shropshire by-election will have been Labour candidates in Wrexham (especially), Shrewsbury, Telford and the Potteries. Normally large numbers of Conservative members head out from N. Shrops. to those areas in GEs, but will now be a little busy. |
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