|
|
Post by rcronald on Apr 4, 2023 12:54:54 GMT
And people are used to that - but do they still like it? Turnout remains fairly high, but the Finns' success and to a lesser extent also the identity of the last two prime ministers to gain vote share for their party (both Social Democrats leading relatively ideological gov'ts) seems to argue they don't. Probably not, but I'm not sure how much that really matters. The Finnish centre-left is too weak to form a viable bloc on their own and the country doesn't have a social liberal party they can ally with (or a mainstream Liberal party of any significance at all), and the Finnish Centre Party is too socially conservative and economically centre-right leaning to join a red-green bloc like their Norwegian sister party. And with "the Swedes" (committed to cultural diversity, economically liberal, pro-immigration and green-ish) being a bad fit for working with "the Finns" you'd need Centre to permanently ally with the right to get a centre-rigt bloc going which would mean accepting a permanent role as a sidekick to NCP and the Finns, a role I'm not sure a party as historically dominant could accept. It would be like FF accepting to be permanent junior partners to FG (which may be happening now, but I'm skeptical that sort of "unnatural" relationships can last in the long run). I suppose Finland could alternate between centre-right bloc governments and broad governments, but I suspect that would alienate part of the liberal part of the NCP electorate which would then probably move to the Greens (making them more centrist). I suppose a lot depends on whether you believe Move could develop into a Social Liberal party allied with the Social Democrats (Iceland finally got one, Reform, as a split from their Conservatives). I don't really see bloc politics working in Finland unless that happens. SFP sounds like a SocLib party, maybe they could be the SocLib party if they become less “Swedish”? |
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Apr 4, 2023 13:13:02 GMT
Probably not, but I'm not sure how much that really matters. The Finnish centre-left is too weak to form a viable bloc on their own and the country doesn't have a social liberal party they can ally with (or a mainstream Liberal party of any significance at all), and the Finnish Centre Party is too socially conservative and economically centre-right leaning to join a red-green bloc like their Norwegian sister party. And with "the Swedes" (committed to cultural diversity, economically liberal, pro-immigration and green-ish) being a bad fit for working with "the Finns" you'd need Centre to permanently ally with the right to get a centre-rigt bloc going which would mean accepting a permanent role as a sidekick to NCP and the Finns, a role I'm not sure a party as historically dominant could accept. It would be like FF accepting to be permanent junior partners to FG (which may be happening now, but I'm skeptical that sort of "unnatural" relationships can last in the long run). I suppose Finland could alternate between centre-right bloc governments and broad governments, but I suspect that would alienate part of the liberal part of the NCP electorate which would then probably move to the Greens (making them more centrist). I suppose a lot depends on whether you believe Move could develop into a Social Liberal party allied with the Social Democrats (Iceland finally got one, Reform, as a split from their Conservatives). I don't really see bloc politics working in Finland unless that happens. SFP sounds like a SocLib party, maybe they could be the SocLib party if they become less “Swedish”? Being (Finland-)Swedish is their whole raison d'etre so that's not an option, but yes and that's why I added "mainstream" as a qualifier to liberal. They represent a mix of what's left of the old Swedish speaking urban bourgeoisie and rural interests in Ostrobothnia and the coastal communities in the SW, with many small businesses and self-employed people, which translates into being economically liberal and fairly progressive on social and environmental issues. |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Apr 4, 2023 13:52:46 GMT
SFP sounds like a SocLib party, maybe they could be the SocLib party if they become less “Swedish”? Being (Finland-)Swedish is their whole raison d'etre so that's not an option, but yes and that's why I added "mainstream" as a qualifier to liberal. They represent a mix of what's left of the old Swedish speaking urban bourgeoisie and rural interests in Ostrobothnia and the coastal communities in the SW, with many small businesses and self-employed people, which translates into being economically liberal and fairly progressive on social and environmental issues. |
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Apr 5, 2023 9:49:29 GMT
Sanna Marin has declared she steps down as leader of the SDP at the party conference in September. She rules out running for president but not sitting in a new cabinet.
Says she doesn't believe in a coalition between the Big 3, but that's not a particularly likely option anyway.
The election result will be finalized today and parliament will convene on 13 April where NCP's Petteri Orpo will be elected Speaker and officially begin the government consultations the following day. Having the presumptive PM be elected Speaker is not something I'm aware any other country does.
|
|
WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,267
Member is Online
|
Post by WJ on Apr 5, 2023 10:29:40 GMT
She can step down with her head held high. Not many PMs see their party increase seats in Finnish elections.
|
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Apr 5, 2023 13:36:42 GMT
The three favourites to take over after Marin are considered to be:
Parliamentary group chairman Antti Lindtman (40) who was the right wing's candidate to take over after Antti Rinne but lost out to Marin. He has called a press conference later this afternoon where he's expected to declare. From Vantaa in the capital region.
Deputy chairman Niina Malm (40) who got the most votes in her native Southern Carelia and has a background in local politics and the trade unions, she's the candidate of the party's traditional trade union based left wing. She has battled cancer and couldn't campaign, has a reputation as a fighter and is very well liked by the grass roots and with classical SocDem views.
Minister of Development and Foreign Trade Ville Skinnari (49), who is a former professional ice hockey player (and the son of one) and lawyer, his main cause is "green growth" via a thorough transformation of the economy leading to jobs and export opportunities. From Helsinki and with appeal to progressive urban middle class voters.
Lindtman is considered the favourite if SDP decides to enter a coalition, if they go into opposition it'll be more open.
EDIT: at the press conference Lindtman wouldn't say whether he is running, but that he will think about it over Easter and announce within a couple of weeks.
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 5, 2023 14:50:06 GMT
A quick check reveals that Skinnari played for the Solihull Blaze, now in Coventry.
The first-ever party leader in Finnish history to have been to Solihull ice rink. Why choose any else for the role?
|
|
|
|
Post by eastmidlandsright on Apr 5, 2023 16:40:27 GMT
She can step down with her head held high. Not many PMs see their party increase seats in Finnish elections. A curious spin on the fact that a supposedly very popular leader has essentially lost an election and will now either by out of office or in significantly lower office. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2023 17:35:42 GMT
She can step down with her head held high. Not many PMs see their party increase seats in Finnish elections. A curious spin on the fact that a supposedly very popular leader has essentially lost an election and will now either by out of office or in significantly lower office. However that largely down to her coalition partners losing seats which isn't really her fault |
|
|
|
Post by eastmidlandsright on Apr 5, 2023 18:03:47 GMT
A curious spin on the fact that a supposedly very popular leader has essentially lost an election and will now either by out of office or in significantly lower office. However that largely down to her coalition partners losing seats which isn't really her fault She led a broadly centre left government and overall the left of centre parties (SDP, Grn, Left) lost 9 seats and it is pretty clear that the SDP lost votes to the right while gaining some at the expense of their coalition partners. There is no way that this is anything other than a failure, especially as I said in the case of a supposedly popular leader. |
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Apr 5, 2023 19:07:13 GMT
However that largely down to her coalition partners losing seats which isn't really her fault She led a broadly centre left government and overall the left of centre parties (SDP, Grn, Left) lost 9 seats and it is pretty clear that the SDP lost votes to the right while gaining some at the expense of their coalition partners. There is no way that this is anything other than a failure, especially as I said in the case of a supposedly popular leader. I think you're conflating Marin's image abroad with her image in Finland, it doesn't really matter how "supposedly popular" she is in liberal/progressive leaning anglophone media, she is a somewhat divisive figure in Finland and a lot of Finnish voters clearly found her unserious and disliked some of her party girl antics, and the idea that she found Finland to be "too small a stage" and aimed for bigger and better things internationally seems to have been fairly widespread as well. The two traditional left wing parties (the SDP and the Left Party) had a combined net gain of 1.1 point, but a net loss of 2 seats due to less optimal vote distribution so it was basically status quo for the "red" part of the left. The Greens lost big, 4.5 points and 7 seats, but as I've pointed out above Finland has a Green-NCP swing vote among the liberal urban middle class, so the Greens almost certainly lost some of that directly to the centre-right. I haven't seen any analysis of voter movements yet, but it's probably a quite complex pattern. Centre was punished by rural voters for working with the Left, and particularly the Greens (despite a local government reform and a lot of other policy wins), but they seem to be in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation where some parts of their coalition are disgruntled whether they work with the right (2015-19) or the left (2019-23), and whether they get good results or not. Which is a the main reason they'll probably go into opposition. |
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Apr 5, 2023 19:19:34 GMT
I can see why Centre need to go into opposition. But I can't see any majority coalition without them.
|
|
WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,267
Member is Online
|
Post by WJ on Apr 5, 2023 19:22:28 GMT
She can step down with her head held high. Not many PMs see their party increase seats in Finnish elections. A curious spin on the fact that a supposedly very popular leader has essentially lost an election and will now either by out of office or in significantly lower office. A feat that has only been achieved twice in Finnish electoral history AFAIK (1983 and 2003). Finland almost never has the same PM after an election so her leaving office should not be a surprise to anyone. Least of all her. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but the only PM to have ever remained in office after an election was Lipponen after the 1999 election. |
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on Apr 5, 2023 19:27:09 GMT
She led a broadly centre left government and overall the left of centre parties (SDP, Grn, Left) lost 9 seats and it is pretty clear that the SDP lost votes to the right while gaining some at the expense of their coalition partners. There is no way that this is anything other than a failure, especially as I said in the case of a supposedly popular leader. I think you're conflating Marin's image abroad with her image in Finland, it doesn't really matter how "supposedly popular" she is in liberal/progressive leaning anglophone media, she is a somewhat divisive figure in Finland and a lot of Finnish voters clearly found her unserious and disliked some of her party girl antics, and the idea that she found Finland to be "too small a stage" and aimed for bigger and better things internationally seems to have been fairly widespread as well. The two traditional left wing parties (the SDP and the Left Party) had a combined net gain of 1.1 point, but a net loss of 2 seats due to less optimal vote distribution so it was basically status quo for the "red" part of the left. The Greens lost big, 4.5 points and 7 seats, but as I've pointed out above Finland has a Green-NCP swing vote among the liberal urban middle class, so the Greens almost certainly lost some of that directly to the centre-right. I haven't seen any analysis of voter movements yet, but it's probably a quite complex pattern. Centre was punished by rural voters for working with the Left, and particularly the Greens (despite a local government reform and a lot of other policy wins), but they seem to be in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation where some parts of their coalition are disgruntled whether they work with the right (2015-19) or the left (2019-23), and whether they get good results or not. Which is a the main reason they'll probably go into opposition. Decent chance Kesk doesn't recover in opposition, as Finns will be in opposition as well... |
|
|
|
Post by eastmidlandsright on Apr 5, 2023 19:43:04 GMT
She led a broadly centre left government and overall the left of centre parties (SDP, Grn, Left) lost 9 seats and it is pretty clear that the SDP lost votes to the right while gaining some at the expense of their coalition partners. There is no way that this is anything other than a failure, especially as I said in the case of a supposedly popular leader. I think you're conflating Marin's image abroad with her image in Finland, it doesn't really matter how "supposedly popular" she is in liberal/progressive leaning anglophone media, she is a somewhat divisive figure in Finland and a lot of Finnish voters clearly found her unserious and disliked some of her party girl antics, and the idea that she found Finland to be "too small a stage" and aimed for bigger and better things internationally seems to have been fairly widespread as well. The two traditional left wing parties (the SDP and the Left Party) had a combined net gain of 1.1 point, but a net loss of 2 seats due to less optimal vote distribution so it was basically status quo for the "red" part of the left. The Greens lost big, 4.5 points and 7 seats, but as I've pointed out above Finland has a Green-NCP swing vote among the liberal urban middle class, so the Greens almost certainly lost some of that directly to the centre-right. I haven't seen any analysis of voter movements yet, but it's probably a quite complex pattern. Centre was punished by rural voters for working with the Left, and particularly the Greens (despite a local government reform and a lot of other policy wins), but they seem to be in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation where some parts of their coalition are disgruntled whether they work with the right (2015-19) or the left (2019-23), and whether they get good results or not. Which is a the main reason they'll probably go into opposition. I don't actually disagree much of that and I am aware that there is a Green-NCP swing vote but it almost certainly doesn't account for all of the Green's drop. What I object to is the attempt by some to paint this as anything other than a defeat for Marin. |
|
|
|
Post by eastmidlandsright on Apr 5, 2023 19:49:32 GMT
I can see why Centre need to go into opposition. But I can't see any majority coalition without them. NCP/SDP/KD/Swedes is a possibility, if NCP and SDP can come to a deal, and 106 seats is a stable enough majority. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,916
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 6, 2023 11:15:22 GMT
She led a broadly centre left government and overall the left of centre parties (SDP, Grn, Left) lost 9 seats and it is pretty clear that the SDP lost votes to the right while gaining some at the expense of their coalition partners. There is no way that this is anything other than a failure, especially as I said in the case of a supposedly popular leader. I think you're conflating Marin's image abroad with her image in Finland, it doesn't really matter how "supposedly popular" she is in liberal/progressive leaning anglophone media, she is a somewhat divisive figure in Finland and a lot of Finnish voters clearly found her unserious and disliked some of her party girl antics, and the idea that she found Finland to be "too small a stage" and aimed for bigger and better things internationally seems to have been fairly widespread as well. Actually, a lot of her outside admirers are aware that she was sometimes a controversial figure within Finland and wasn't universally popular. That arguably makes her still managing to increase her party's seat total (unlike most Finnish PMs in recent years) all the more notable though (even given the fact some of her left wing allies lost seats) Despite the above, she maybe had something going for her after all. |
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Apr 6, 2023 15:43:12 GMT
The Finn Party has switched their EP group from Identity and Democracy (with Le Pen's RN and AfD etc.) to ECR (which they belonged to 2014-19) where they rejoin their old partners the Sweden Democrats.
Their official motivation is that "Russia's brutal war of aggression has changed Finland's security political situation radically, which has necessitated a reevaluation of the Finns Party's international network of cooperation" and that the party must belong to a group that "uncompromisingly defends Western civilization and the European security political architecture"; Finnish political commentators view it as a prerequisite for going into government. It would be hard for NCP to be governing with a partner associated with parties with (alleged or real) ties to the Russian government.
Both SDP and the Finns Party have today said that they don't rule out being in government with each other, but that's still an unlikely prospect.
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 6, 2023 17:08:06 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 6, 2023 17:09:41 GMT
The Finn Party has switched their EP group from Identity and Democracy (with Le Pen's RN and AfD etc.) to ECR (which they belonged to 2014-19) where they rejoin their old partners the Sweden Democrats. Their official motivation is that "Russia's brutal war of aggression has changed Finland's security political situation radically, which has necessitated a reevaluation of the Finns Party's international network of cooperation" and that the party must belong to a group that "uncompromisingly defends Western civilization and the European security political architecture"; Finnish political commentators view it as a prerequisite for going into government. It would be hard for NCP to be governing with a partner associated with parties with (alleged or real) ties to the Russian government. Both SDP and the Finns Party have today said that they don't rule out being in government with each other, but that's still an unlikely prospect. Given their roots in opposing a president who sucked up to the Soviets, it is crazy that the Finns ever ended up getting themselves into a position where they could invite such allegations. |
|
