maxque
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Post by maxque on Apr 2, 2023 22:40:00 GMT
KOK/NCP - National Coalition party /SDP/SDP- Social Democratic Party PS/F- True Finns True Finns are just Finns now. Pretty historic stuff with Centre being overtaken in certain regions. In ALL regions. |
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Post by ibfc on Apr 3, 2023 3:38:20 GMT
Looks like YLE disagree with me, as their forecast is: KOK-48 (+10) Finns-46 (+7) SDP-43 (+3) Centre-23 (-8) Greens-13 (-7) Left-11 (-5) Swedes-9 (-) KD-5(-) Others-2 On these numbers it is essentially outgoing government parties 100 seats (including Aland with Swedes) and parties broadly of the right 100 seats. Guess Centre are in between a rock and a hard place unless NCP offers them the way out by going with SD. Knowing European centre right parties, I am sure they will. |
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Post by rcronald on Apr 3, 2023 3:44:25 GMT
Worst Green performance since 1995 and worst Centre performance since 1916…
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Post by rcronald on Apr 3, 2023 3:46:36 GMT
On these numbers it is essentially outgoing government parties 100 seats (including Aland with Swedes) and parties broadly of the right 100 seats. Guess Centre are in between a rock and a hard place unless NCP offers them the way out by going with SD. Knowing European centre right parties, I am sure they will. The party doesn’t want to be in any coalition at the moment. |
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Post by rcronald on Apr 3, 2023 3:59:25 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 3, 2023 4:12:54 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Apr 3, 2023 4:13:41 GMT
Results: Finnish Reform Movement - 92% Agreement Movement Now - 85% Agreement Finnish Nation First - 77% Agreement Freedom Alliance Party - 77% Agreement Finns Party - 69% Agreement National Coalition Party - 62% Agreement Christian Democrats - 62% Agreement Liberal Party- 62% Agreement Swedish People’s Party - 54% Agreement Centre Party - 50% Agreement Crystal Party - 38% Agreement Open Party - 38% Agreement Social Democratic Party - 31% Agreement Animal Justice Party - 15% Agreement Feminist Party - 15% Agreement Left Alliance - 8% Agreement Green League - 8% Agreement Communist Party of Finland - 0% Agreement |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 3, 2023 4:14:16 GMT
Pollster-perFormance, grouped by - deViation per party:  - chronoLogy (only 2022&2023):  - final poll of each company:  |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 3, 2023 4:29:16 GMT
On these numbers it is essentially outgoing government parties 100 seats (including Aland with Swedes) and parties broadly of the right 100 seats. Guess Centre are in between a rock and a hard place unless NCP offers them the way out by going with SD. Knowing European centre right parties, I am sure they will. Yes, You are absolutely right on our centre-right. Additionally KOK+PS would need KESK, who can claim, that this variant cost them 2019 over 7%; that after losing twice due to participating in one-sided cabinets they need now a centrist government for reCovery. SDP had ruled PS as a partner out. |
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Post by rcronald on Apr 3, 2023 4:51:27 GMT
Guess Centre are in between a rock and a hard place unless NCP offers them the way out by going with SD. Knowing European centre right parties, I am sure they will. Yes, You are absolutely right on our centre-right. Additionally KOK+PS would need KESK, who can claim, that this variant cost them 2019 over 7%; that after losing twice due to participating in one-sided cabinets they need now a centrist government for reCovery. SDP had ruled PS as a partner out. Kesk needs to be in opposition (probably a constructive one) to recover. KOK run on austerity and a coalition with with pro-spending SDP is likely to be highly unpopular with many of their voters (who can now move to Finns because the party is no longer left leaning on economics). |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Apr 3, 2023 7:51:21 GMT
On these numbers it is essentially outgoing government parties 100 seats (including Aland with Swedes) and parties broadly of the right 100 seats. Guess Centre are in between a rock and a hard place unless NCP offers them the way out by going with SD. Knowing European centre right parties, I am sure they will. Finland has a long tradition of broad governments across the aisle, bloc based governments are very much the exception. So it's not so much about a European pattern as a national one. |
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Post by aargauer on Apr 3, 2023 9:11:43 GMT
Guess Centre are in between a rock and a hard place unless NCP offers them the way out by going with SD. Knowing European centre right parties, I am sure they will. Finland has a long tradition of broad governments across the aisle, bloc based governments are very much the exception. So it's not so much about a European pattern as a national one. But probably not with Marin - as she seems to realise. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Apr 3, 2023 10:17:23 GMT
Guess Centre are in between a rock and a hard place unless NCP offers them the way out by going with SD. Knowing European centre right parties, I am sure they will. Finland has a long tradition of broad governments across the aisle, bloc based governments are very much the exception. So it's not so much about a European pattern as a national one. And people are used to that - but do they still like it? Turnout remains fairly high, but the Finns' success and to a lesser extent also the identity of the last two prime ministers to gain vote share for their party (both Social Democrats leading relatively ideological gov'ts) seems to argue they don't. Different question:  I understand or can imagine most of the patterns here - but what's with the Green strength in the centre and the Left strength on the west coast? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 3, 2023 12:40:51 GMT
Some of that Left strength down there must be a Turku spillover, but why Satakunta has the same is a headscratcher.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 3, 2023 18:16:17 GMT
Riika Purra quite clearly had a personal vote. She received the highest vote for a female candidate since 1948, and the fourth-highest of all time. For all the talk of Marin's personal popularity, note that she wasn't far ahead of Elina Valtonen of the NCP - does anyone know why Valtonen attracted such a huge personal vote? yle.fi/a/74-20025554 |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 3, 2023 23:54:06 GMT
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Apr 4, 2023 11:52:42 GMT
The political editor of the Swedish language version of national broadcaster YLE agreed with my hunch that the Greens joining the government is more likely than foreeign media assume, so emboldened by that a few thoughts:
NCP, SDP, SPP (incl. the Åland rep) and Christian Democrats on 106 would be a classic "broad government" but it has a slimmer majority than is usually deemed desirable in Finland. Despite that it's probably still the most likely end result.
SPP going right seems unlikely. In addition to protecting the status of the Swedish language and a progressive climate policy the SPP demands that immigration, incl. labour migration, is not reduced and that Finland's EU policy isn't changed (vetoing even mild eurosceptic-y signals). It's hard to see the Finns Party joining a government that doesn't cut immigration levels at all so that's likely the deal breaker (more so than language policy on which the Finns will back down if necessary). SPP is basically saying that the Finns should have zero influence on their pet issues, which is unrealistic.
The Greens leader Maria Ohisalo have said that they don't want to join a government that cuts education, slow down combating the climate catastrophe or loss of biodiversity, or increase inequality. Of those the last point is the tricky one, the NCP will be able to compromise on education and green issues. Ohisalo may be gone after the party conference in June, so her views are not necessarily decisive. The main problem for the Greens is that after getting clobbered they time in opposition would be needed to bounce back, but in the end it depends what NCP is willing to offer them. With the lack of a viable liberal party in Finland (Move is a joke) there are NCP/Green swing voters so tying the Greens to the government's policies does give NCP an electoral advantage next time which they may be willing to pay a price for.
NCP and Greens split the liberal vote in the cities, they recruit from the same social base (urban professional class) and while they disagree on policy NCP is greener than Centre, which the Green has just been in coalition with.
Centre has said they want to go into opposition, but like similar old centrist, ultrapragmatic establishment parties (say, CDA in the Netherlands) that have declined and have an aging core electorate there'll be strong internal and external pressure for them to do it anyway even if it's not in their self-interest, because these parties are viewed as natural "parties of power" who basically exist to govern.
Right now everyone is waiting to see if Centre can get coaxed into government, if not NCP and SDP will have to get serious about coalition talks and who they can work with. Centre share euroscepticism and social conservatism with the Finns, but they'd miss out on the chance of bouncing back next time if they don't go into opposition and it might cement their status as a minor party.
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Post by rcronald on Apr 4, 2023 12:11:23 GMT
I believe Centre also said they wanted to go into opposition in 2018 and ended up in government anyway.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 4, 2023 12:17:23 GMT
Given their historically poor result this time, there is surely more chance of them sticking to their guns now?
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Apr 4, 2023 12:36:03 GMT
And people are used to that - but do they still like it? Turnout remains fairly high, but the Finns' success and to a lesser extent also the identity of the last two prime ministers to gain vote share for their party (both Social Democrats leading relatively ideological gov'ts) seems to argue they don't. Probably not, but I'm not sure how much that really matters. The Finnish centre-left is too weak to form a viable bloc on their own and the country doesn't have a social liberal party they can ally with (or a mainstream Liberal party of any significance at all), and the Finnish Centre Party is too socially conservative and economically centre-right leaning to join a red-green bloc like their Norwegian sister party. And with "the Swedes" (committed to cultural diversity, economically liberal, pro-immigration and green-ish) being a bad fit for working with "the Finns" you'd need Centre to permanently ally with the right to get a centre-rigt bloc going which would mean accepting a permanent role as a sidekick to NCP and the Finns, a role I'm not sure a party as historically dominant could accept. It would be like FF accepting to be permanent junior partners to FG (which may be happening now, but I'm skeptical that sort of "unnatural" relationships can last in the long run). I suppose Finland could alternate between centre-right bloc governments and broad governments, but I suspect that would alienate part of the liberal part of the NCP electorate which would then probably move to the Greens (making them more centrist). I suppose a lot depends on whether you believe Move could develop into a Social Liberal party allied with the Social Democrats (Iceland finally got one, Reform, as a split from their Conservatives). I don't really see bloc politics working in Finland unless that happens. |
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