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Post by andrew111 on Feb 4, 2022 13:01:24 GMT
The fact that he calls himself "local Conservative" is perhaps the thing that should worry Johnson most I’m not sure; there are always a few areas that use “Local Conservative” just as you still get the occasional “Liberal Democrat Focus Team” candidate. Perhaps, I can't really be bothered to check previous SOPNs. Lib Dems are avowedly localist and in most places will never be elected on national policies, so it is more understandable.. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 4, 2022 13:02:27 GMT
The fact that he calls himself "local Conservative" is perhaps the thing that should worry Johnson most I’m not sure; there are always a few areas that use “Local Conservative” just as you still get the occasional “Liberal Democrat Focus Team” candidate. In the coalition days especially, you sometimes used to get just "Focus Team". Think that particular loophole may have been shut now but not sure. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 4, 2022 13:04:48 GMT
The fact that he calls himself "local Conservative" is perhaps the thing that should worry Johnson most I’m not sure; there are always a few areas that use “Local Conservative” just as you still get the occasional “Liberal Democrat Focus Team” candidate. And on occasion during the coalition years, just Focus Team... |
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Post by listener on Feb 4, 2022 13:23:21 GMT
The Labour vote share is down in all 5 by-elections - they did not contest Cotswold.
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 4, 2022 13:41:02 GMT
The Labour vote share is down in all 5 by-elections - they did not contest Cotswold. So their vote share isn't down in Cotswold, because they didn't contest it last time either? |
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 4, 2022 15:28:11 GMT
Looking at the byelections due in the rest of this month, quite a few possibly tricky defences for the Tories and not many more potential embarrassments for Labour. Labour are defending just 1 seat - Bristol: Southmead - amongst the 31 by-elections known to have been called up to and including the 10 March. Conservatives are defending 12 seats - 9 in February and a further 3 known so far in the first 2 weeks of March. The best chance by far of a Labour gain from Conservatives appears to be in Spelthorne: Stanwell North where they already have 2 of the ward seats. They do have significant opportunities for gaining around 3 or more seats in wards being defended by Independents. There are a further 9 Labour held vacancies where an election has yet to be called. However 3 of these will see the seats contested again in May and therefore a by-election becomes increasingly unlikely, 3 are probable candidates for "double" elections in May although the other 3 do have the potential for a surprise or two. So basically as far as by-elections up to May are concerned, Labour has little to lose with the potential for some modest gains. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Feb 4, 2022 15:50:10 GMT
The Labour vote share is down in all 5 by-elections - they did not contest Cotswold. So their vote share isn't down in Cotswold, because they didn't contest it last time either? To be grammatically accurate listener should have said their vote share was down in all five by-elections they contested. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2022 15:55:43 GMT
The results do perhaps suggest that the Conservatives can do comparatively 'alright-ish' for a party long in government, probably partly because (as I think the Southend by-election helped demonstrate) there just isn't a right of centre alternative that people seem interested in. At least at the moment.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 4, 2022 16:00:46 GMT
Leicester and Manchester both show the downsides of normally very effective Labour machine politics. I suspect there's also a strong element of 'what demographic changes giveth, demographic changes taketh away' to the one. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 4, 2022 16:15:02 GMT
The results do perhaps suggest that the Conservatives can do comparatively 'alright-ish' for a party long in government, probably partly because (as I think the Southend by-election helped demonstrate) there just isn't a right of centre alternative that people seem interested in. At least at the moment. Or there's too many of them |
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 4, 2022 16:35:12 GMT
The populist right really need to do something about the fact that they're split between about 10 different parties at the moment. That might be okay under a PR system but is really stupid with FPTP. Reform, UKIP, Heritage, etc.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2022 16:39:31 GMT
But isn't it just an inherent weakness, as apparently amongst the far left?
They are small parties so individuals and egos can dominate more easily, but in turn cause friction and division. If you bring more people in, the old guard will fight changes and the newbies will fight to change how things are done. It's catch-22.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 4, 2022 16:41:27 GMT
The populist right really need to do something about the fact that they're split between about 10 different parties at the moment. That might be okay under a PR system but is really stupid with FPTP. Reform, UKIP, Heritage, etc. If I form an 'Alternative For Britain' who will come with me? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 4, 2022 16:45:00 GMT
The populist right really need to do something about the fact that they're split between about 10 different parties at the moment. That might be okay under a PR system but is really stupid with FPTP. Reform, UKIP, Heritage, etc. If I form an 'Alternative For Britain' who will come with me? If you form it, nobody will. If Nigel Farage does, loads |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 4, 2022 17:18:46 GMT
If I form an 'Alternative For Britain' who will come with me? If you form it, nobody will. If Nigel Farage does, loads How many would stay more than 6 months is of course a completely different question. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 4, 2022 17:19:31 GMT
If I form an 'Alternative For Britain' who will come with me? If you form it, nobody will. If Nigel Farage does, loads Of course that is true and it is part of the problem. We need better than Farage, younger than me, charismatic, and preferably a group of intelligent well known people not very involved in politics so far. And we need a very few central core policies encapsulated in brief punchy populist slogans. |
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Post by owainsutton on Feb 4, 2022 17:35:37 GMT
Leicester and Manchester both show the downsides of normally very effective Labour machine politics. Worth noting that in Manchester they also managed to lose a by-election to an utterly unhinged independent, just before the first lockdown. (The one that ended up accidentally resigning.) |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 4, 2022 17:39:51 GMT
Leicester and Manchester both show the downsides of normally very effective Labour machine politics. Worth noting that in Manchester they also managed to lose a by-election to an utterly unhinged independent, just before the first lockdown. (The one that ended up accidentally resigning.) Yes, though that person had been building up their strength in the previous few elections (isn't it actually the neighbouring ward to the one lost yesterday?) Of course, his revealing himself as a total crank once elected has likely made Labour safe there at least for the foreseeable future. |
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ilerda
Conservative
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Post by ilerda on Feb 4, 2022 17:40:07 GMT
I think the Leicester result is probably the most interesting.
3 by-elections there in the past year, all in Leicester East, and all with significant Lab-Tory swings (including one Tory gain).
Claudia Webbe is undoubtedly a factor to some extent, but bringing back Washing Machine Keith was supposed to lessen that effect. I find it very hard to believe it’s entirely a result of Webbe, so what else is going on here?
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 4, 2022 18:27:05 GMT
The populist right really need to do something about the fact that they're split between about 10 different parties at the moment. That might be okay under a PR system but is really stupid with FPTP. Reform, UKIP, Heritage, etc. If I form an 'Alternative For Britain' who will come with me? A great solution to the proliferation of splinter parties: another splinter party!   |
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