|
|
Post by owainsutton on Feb 4, 2022 9:52:01 GMT
Was hearing lots of bullish noises from our team in Manchester, but didn’t assume it would amount to much. But it’s a Lib Dem gain - excellent, and unexpected! We were very much expecting it. A perfect storm: nightmare resignation situation for Labour, a very sound and committed Lib Dem candidate, a second place last time to build from, and a really good campaign. A very deserved win. |
|
iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
|
Post by iang on Feb 4, 2022 9:54:37 GMT
I saw a fair bit of activity on twitter which suggested we were fighting it properly, but of course you don't know from a distance whether that really is the case, or whether online activity masks not actually doing much on the ground
|
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,729
Member is Online
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Feb 4, 2022 10:16:32 GMT
The Cotswold numbers. Tom Stowe. Conservative 1180 Danny Loveridge. Liberal Democrat 920 I thought the Lib Dems might get a bit closer than that, although this ward will have a large number of residents who will never vote anything else except Conservative. Yup, Chipping Campden and Blockley, for instance, are deepest blue territory, so to get as close as that is encouraging. We were starting from a fair way back in 2019, and I doubt that much of the absent UKIP vote would ordinarily have broken for us. |
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Feb 4, 2022 10:24:06 GMT
The Cotswold numbers. Tom Stowe. Conservative 1180 Danny Loveridge. Liberal Democrat 920 I thought the Lib Dems might get a bit closer than that, although this ward will have a large number of residents who will never vote anything else except Conservative. I thought it would be a LD gain. It is however much more unusual for a party already in control of a council, to gain an opposition seat. If the Conservatives had held control of the council in 2019, then I suspect this may have been a LD gain. |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Feb 4, 2022 10:45:35 GMT
I've done it for him 🟨⬜🟨20⬜⬜ Ancoats 🟨🟨40⬜⬜🟨 Evington 🟩🟨🟨50🟩🟨 Boxmoor 🟩🟩🟨80🟨🟨 Berko West 🟩🟩🟩🟩90🟩 Campden Vale Excellent results for the Greens and LibDems, I see Surprised Pete did not notice the Tories doing well in Leicester though. Otherwise very careful analysis |
|
carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,887 
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 4, 2022 11:21:15 GMT
Boxmoor (Dacorum) council by-election result: LDEM: 60.5% (+18.3) CON: 27.5% (-4.3) LAB: 7.8% (-6.2) GRN: 4.2% (-7.8) Votes cast: 2,181 Liberal Democrat HOLD. That is a very sound hold with turn from all other parties. Well done. And a rather good Conservative result in these circumstances. |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Feb 4, 2022 11:27:03 GMT
Boxmoor (Dacorum) council by-election result: LDEM: 60.5% (+18.3) CON: 27.5% (-4.3) LAB: 7.8% (-6.2) GRN: 4.2% (-7.8) Votes cast: 2,181 Liberal Democrat HOLD. That is a very sound hold with turn from all other parties. Well done. And a rather good Conservative result in these circumstances. There were some pretty decent Conservative results this week - this is probably one of the poorest though - 27.5% in a ward that had been safe for them until 2019 and a further fall backwards from 2019, which were pretty bad results for them in themselves. |
|
|
|
Post by jm on Feb 4, 2022 11:48:28 GMT
Tamworth began counting at 11am. Hopefully we will have the result early this afternoon
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
|
Post by The Bishop on Feb 4, 2022 11:50:36 GMT
Leicester and Manchester both show the downsides of normally very effective Labour machine politics.
|
|
carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,887
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 4, 2022 11:54:50 GMT
Cotswold: Campden & The Vale - Conservative hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Conservative | 1,180 | 56.2% | +12.5% | +13.3% | -3.7% | -3.6% | | Liberal Democrat | 920 | 43.8% | +18.2% | +17.8% | +21.5% | +21.9% | | UKIP |
|
| -30.7% | -31.1% | -17.9% | -18.4% | | Total votes | 2,100 |
| 103% | 105% | 68% | 70% |
Swing: if particularly meaningful Conservative to Liberal Democrat 2¾% / 2¼% since 2019 and 12½% / 12¾% since 2015 Council now: 18 Liberal Democrat, 14 Conservative, 1 Green, 1 Independent Dacorum: Berkhamsted West - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2017 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 924 | 64.1% | +13.9% | +14.3% | +24.9% | +45.5% | +46.2% | | Conservative | 318 | 22.1% | -5.6% | -5.5% | -19.8% | -29.2% | -30.4% | | Green | 130 | 9.0% | -5.8% | -6.5% | +0.1% | -4.3% | -5.1% | | Labour | 69 | 4.8% | -2.5% | -2.3% | -5.1% | -12.0% | -10.7% | | Total votes | 1,441 |
| 75% | 78% | 80% | 44% | 46% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 9¾% / 10% since 2019 and 37½% / 38¼% since 2015 Council now: 31 Conservative, 19 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent Dacorum: Boxmoor - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 1,319 | 60.5% | +18.3% | +16.5% | +46.9% | +47.1% | | Conservative | 599 | 27.5% | -4.3% | -5.4% | -10.1% | -11.1% | | Labour | 171 | 7.8% | -6.2% | -4.4% | -8.7% | -8.9% | | Green | 92 | 4.2% | -7.8% | -6.7% | -9.0% | -11.1% | | UKIP |
|
|
|
| -19.1% | -15.9% | | Total votes | 2,181 |
| 72% | 79% | 35% | 40% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 11¼% / 11% since 2019 and 28½% / 29% since 2015 Council now: 31 Conservative, 19 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent Leicester: Evington - Labour hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Labour | 1,557 | 38.8% | -15.4% | -15.0% | -14.5% | -15.5% | | Conservative | 1,382 | 34.4% | +12.9% | +13.6% | +9.4% | +9.2% | | Liberal Democrat | 830 | 20.7% | +12.5% | +12.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 200 | 5.0% | -7.1% | -7.9% | -3.8% | -2.7% | | For Britain | 45 | 1.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Social Alternative |
|
| -4.0% | -3.8% |
|
| | UKIP |
|
|
|
| -9.2% | -8.9% | | TUSC |
|
|
|
| -3.6% | -3.9% | | Total votes | 4,014 |
| 84% | 89% | 54% | 59% |
Swing: Labour to Conservative 14¼% since 2019 and 12% / 12½% since 2015 Council now: 52 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat Manchester: Ancoats & Beswick - Liberal Democrat gain from Labour| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 | since 2019 | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 1,113 | 53.2% | +31.0% | +42.2% | +43.1% | +44.2% | | Labour | 793 | 37.9% | -20.6% | -17.9% | -26.0% | -25.4% | | Green | 119 | 5.7% | -5.3% | -12.0% | -9.3% | -11.1% | | Conservative | 66 | 3.2% | -5.2% | -5.6% | -7.8% | -7.6% | | UKIP |
|
|
| -6.7% |
|
| | Total votes | 2,091 |
| 60% | 98% | 91% | 102% |
Swing: Labour to Liberal Democrat 25¾% since May, 30% since 2019 and 34½% / 34¾% since 2018 Council now: 92 Labour, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Green, 1 vacancy Tamworth: Spital - result awaited Friday | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 | since 2019 | since 2018 | since 2016 | | Row 2 column 1 | Row 2 column 2 | Row 2 column 3 | Row 2 column 4 | Row 2 column 5 | Row 2 column 6 | Row 2 column 7 | | Row 3 column 1 | Row 3 column 2 | Row 3 column 3 | Row 3 column 4 | Row 3 column 5 | Row 3 column 6 | Row 3 column 7 | | Row 4 column 1 | Row 4 column 2 | Row 4 column 3 | Row 4 column 4 | Row 4 column 5 | Row 4 column 6 | Row 4 column 7 | | UKIP |
|
| -2.1% | -18.5% |
|
| | Party | Row 6 column 2 |
| Row 6 column 4 | Row 6 column 5 | Row 6 column 6 | Row 6 column 7 |
Swing: Council now: 25 Conservative, 3 Labour, 1 UKIP. 1 vacancy Conservatives have a terrible start to the year and are under the cosh from all directions and way over a decade into power, and yet it is still Labour who have the excruciatingly bad results! Interesting times! |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
|
Post by The Bishop on Feb 4, 2022 12:00:46 GMT
If you are using these results to argue "the polls are wrong", history suggests that is a mug's game.
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Feb 4, 2022 12:07:21 GMT
If you are using these results to argue "the polls are wrong", history suggests that is a mug's game. Extrapolating national issues from local by elections is a Twitter game. On Twitter, Manchester last night means Starmer must resign, Any Conservative win ever means people have completely lost their minds and any Conservative win with less than 50% of the vote is an automatic argument for PR. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
|
Post by The Bishop on Feb 4, 2022 12:11:58 GMT
Looking at the byelections due in the rest of this month, quite a few possibly tricky defences for the Tories and not many more potential embarrassments for Labour.
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 4, 2022 12:32:48 GMT
TAMWORTH Spital
COOKE, Christian Christopher (Local Conservatives) 613
LOXTON Huw Geraint (Independent) 482
FOSTER, David Geoffrey (Labour Party Candidate) 311
|
|
|
|
Post by jm on Feb 4, 2022 12:37:37 GMT
Con 43.6 (-11.7)
Ind 34.3 (+16.9)
Lab 22.1 (-3.0)
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Feb 4, 2022 12:51:52 GMT
Leicester and Manchester both show the downsides of normally very effective Labour machine politics. And an increase in Lib Dem polling and credibility with two national by election wins since the May elections. If those elections were held today the Lib Dems would probably have got closer with the same campaign in Manchester, but not won without the by-election resource focus. Any serious revival in Manchester would require Labour to be in power nationally as well as locally, I would say. |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Feb 4, 2022 12:53:08 GMT
TAMWORTH Spital COOKE, Christian Christopher (Local Conservatives) 613 LOXTON Huw Geraint (Independent) 482 FOSTER, David Geoffrey (Labour Party Candidate) 311 The fact that he calls himself "local Conservative" is perhaps the thing that should worry Johnson most |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
|
Post by The Bishop on Feb 4, 2022 12:57:47 GMT
Its a fairly common ballot paper descriptor for them, and has been around for a while now.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Feb 4, 2022 12:58:20 GMT
TAMWORTH Spital COOKE, Christian Christopher (Local Conservatives) 613 LOXTON Huw Geraint (Independent) 482 FOSTER, David Geoffrey (Labour Party Candidate) 311 The fact that he calls himself "local Conservative" is perhaps the thing that should worry Johnson most I’m not sure; there are always a few areas that use “Local Conservative” just as you still get the occasional “Liberal Democrat Focus Team” candidate. |
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Feb 4, 2022 12:58:44 GMT
Cotswold: Campden & The Vale - Conservative hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Conservative | 1,180 | 56.2% | +12.5% | +13.3% | -3.7% | -3.6% | | Liberal Democrat | 920 | 43.8% | +18.2% | +17.8% | +21.5% | +21.9% | | UKIP |
|
| -30.7% | -31.1% | -17.9% | -18.4% | | Total votes | 2,100 |
| 103% | 105% | 68% | 70% |
Swing: if particularly meaningful Conservative to Liberal Democrat 2¾% / 2¼% since 2019 and 12½% / 12¾% since 2015 Council now: 18 Liberal Democrat, 14 Conservative, 1 Green, 1 Independent Dacorum: Berkhamsted West - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2017 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 924 | 64.1% | +13.9% | +14.3% | +24.9% | +45.5% | +46.2% | | Conservative | 318 | 22.1% | -5.6% | -5.5% | -19.8% | -29.2% | -30.4% | | Green | 130 | 9.0% | -5.8% | -6.5% | +0.1% | -4.3% | -5.1% | | Labour | 69 | 4.8% | -2.5% | -2.3% | -5.1% | -12.0% | -10.7% | | Total votes | 1,441 |
| 75% | 78% | 80% | 44% | 46% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 9¾% / 10% since 2019 and 37½% / 38¼% since 2015 Council now: 31 Conservative, 19 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent Dacorum: Boxmoor - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 1,319 | 60.5% | +18.3% | +16.5% | +46.9% | +47.1% | | Conservative | 599 | 27.5% | -4.3% | -5.4% | -10.1% | -11.1% | | Labour | 171 | 7.8% | -6.2% | -4.4% | -8.7% | -8.9% | | Green | 92 | 4.2% | -7.8% | -6.7% | -9.0% | -11.1% | | UKIP |
|
|
|
| -19.1% | -15.9% | | Total votes | 2,181 |
| 72% | 79% | 35% | 40% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 11¼% / 11% since 2019 and 28½% / 29% since 2015 Council now: 31 Conservative, 19 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent Leicester: Evington - Labour hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Labour | 1,557 | 38.8% | -15.4% | -15.0% | -14.5% | -15.5% | | Conservative | 1,382 | 34.4% | +12.9% | +13.6% | +9.4% | +9.2% | | Liberal Democrat | 830 | 20.7% | +12.5% | +12.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 200 | 5.0% | -7.1% | -7.9% | -3.8% | -2.7% | | For Britain | 45 | 1.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Social Alternative |
|
| -4.0% | -3.8% |
|
| | UKIP |
|
|
|
| -9.2% | -8.9% | | TUSC |
|
|
|
| -3.6% | -3.9% | | Total votes | 4,014 |
| 84% | 89% | 54% | 59% |
Swing: Labour to Conservative 14¼% since 2019 and 12% / 12½% since 2015 Council now: 52 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat Manchester: Ancoats & Beswick - Liberal Democrat gain from Labour| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 | since 2019 | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 1,113 | 53.2% | +31.0% | +42.2% | +43.1% | +44.2% | | Labour | 793 | 37.9% | -20.6% | -17.9% | -26.0% | -25.4% | | Green | 119 | 5.7% | -5.3% | -12.0% | -9.3% | -11.1% | | Conservative | 66 | 3.2% | -5.2% | -5.6% | -7.8% | -7.6% | | UKIP |
|
|
| -6.7% |
|
| | Total votes | 2,091 |
| 60% | 98% | 91% | 102% |
Swing: Labour to Liberal Democrat 25¾% since May, 30% since 2019 and 34½% / 34¾% since 2018 Council now: 92 Labour, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Green, 1 vacancy Tamworth: Spital - Conservative hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 | since 2019 | since 2018 | since 2016 | | Conservative | 613 | 43.6% | -11.7% | -5.4% | -3.5% | -12.1% | | Independent Loxton | 482 | 34.3% | +16.8% | from nowhere | +12.6% | from nowhere | | Labour | 311 | 22.1% | -3.0% | -10.4% | -9.1% | -22.2% | | UKIP |
|
| -2.1% | -18.5% |
|
| | Party | 1,406 |
| 63% | 75% | 72% | 72% |
Swing: if particularly meaningful Conservative to Independent 14¼% since May and 8% since 2018 also Conservative to Labour 4¼% since May but Labour to Conservative 2½% since 2019, 8% since 2018 and 5% since 2016 Council now: 26 Conservative, 3 Labour, 1 UKIP
|
|
