Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813 
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 22, 2023 17:57:52 GMT
Does Massa even have a chance in the 2nd round? Probably the most difficult question. Milei isn't going to just get the JxC vote without a splinter, and the smaller Schiaretti and Bregman voters will surely go to Massa. Gut feeling - narrow Massa win. But this has been a mad election! Don't think so. DisLike for Kirchnerism is presently just too high. Bullrich looks like a nice mum, but not like a leader. Larreta would in my opinion have been too technocratic&boring to come into the runOff. |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Oct 22, 2023 18:13:28 GMT
Looks like the clearly right-of-centre parties (SVP+FDP+EDU+MCG+LEGA) received 95 seats, up 11 from 2019. Right, but wrong/left thread... Switzerland might have bought Argentina in the mean time? |
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on Oct 22, 2023 18:13:39 GMT
Looks like the clearly right-of-centre parties (SVP+FDP+EDU+MCG+LEGA) received 95 seats, up 11 from 2019. Right, but wrong/left thread... Oops lol |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 22, 2023 22:21:15 GMT
Bloomberg have a live results page. First results expected at 2:30 am BST.
74 per cent turnout, which is a record low (excluding primaries).
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 22, 2023 23:31:23 GMT
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
|
Post by iain on Oct 22, 2023 23:51:23 GMT
Seems like a pretty accurate summary (though Massa still likely loses the runoff):
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 22, 2023 23:58:12 GMT
Seems like a pretty accurate summary (though Massa still likely loses the runoff): Incredible - totally different to the opinionPolls. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 23, 2023 1:49:38 GMT
Massa is indeed at 37% and Milei at 30% - after a huge overPerFormance of the latter in the primaries a big underPerFormance now. resultados.gob.ar/elecciones/1/0/1/-1/-1#agrupacionesBut i think it's not so much people fearing Milei's economical salto mortale, because after all the Peronists did far better than in the PASOs on all levels: Deputies, Senate, BA-gov. (+8%), BACA-mayor (+9%), ... |
|
|
|
Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Oct 23, 2023 2:16:46 GMT
Massa is indeed at 37% and Milei at 30% - after a huge overPerFormance of the latter in the primaries a big underPerFormance now. resultados.gob.ar/elecciones/1/0/1/-1/-1#agrupacionesBut i think it's not so much people fearing Milei's economical salto mortale, because after all the Peronists did far better than in the PASOs on all levels: Deputies, Senate, BA-gov., BACA-mayor... It is his social policies as well that turn away urban and less religious voters. He's not just a libertarian, his social views are traditionalist Catholic. |
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on Oct 23, 2023 2:36:56 GMT
Looks like Santa Cruz is one of Milei’s best provinces lol
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 23, 2023 3:16:35 GMT
Massa is indeed at 37% and Milei at 30% - after a huge overPerFormance of the latter in the primaries a big underPerFormance now. resultados.gob.ar/elecciones/1/0/1/-1/-1#agrupacionesBut i think it's not so much people fearing Milei's economical salto mortale, because after all the Peronists did far better than in the PASOs on all levels: Deputies, Senate, BA-gov., BACA-mayor... It is his social policies as well that turn away urban and less religious voters. He's not just a libertarian, his social views are traditionalist Catholic. No, he is far away from being one of us, not even at the Opus Dei (like Ecuador's Lasso). A.f.a.i.k. his position against abOrtion is also an artificial solitaire and not accompanied by similar positions (so probably only/mostly done in order to attract Cath.Cons.). |
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on Oct 23, 2023 3:21:25 GMT
It is his social policies as well that turn away urban and less religious voters. He's not just a libertarian, his social views are traditionalist Catholic. No, he is far away from being one of us, not even at the Opus Dei (like Ecuador's Lasso). A.f.a.i.k. his position against abOrtion is also an artificial solitaire and not accompanied by similar positions (so probably only/mostly done in order to attract Cath.Cons.). Wait, since when is Opus Dei a moderate organisation? |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 23, 2023 3:42:58 GMT
No, he is far away from being one of us, not even at the Opus Dei (like Ecuador's Lasso). A.f.a.i.k. his position against abOrtion is also an artificial solitaire and not accompanied by similar positions (so probably only/mostly done in order to attract Cath.Cons.). Wait, since when is Opus Dei a moderate organisation? They are economically liberal and "Traditionalist Catholics" means traditionally supporters of the Latin Mass (who are usually also critics/opPonents of Vaticanum II), what does not fit to the OD. |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 23, 2023 7:06:20 GMT
Interesting stuff. Massa's speech about a clean slate and bringing non-Peronists in is positive - but would he?
At any rate, the printers have to stop.
|
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Oct 23, 2023 9:56:24 GMT
No, he is far away from being one of us, not even at the Opus Dei (like Ecuador's Lasso). A.f.a.i.k. his position against abOrtion is also an artificial solitaire and not accompanied by similar positions (so probably only/mostly done in order to attract Cath.Cons.). Wait, since when is Opus Dei a moderate organisation? All things are relative i guess...  |
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on Oct 23, 2023 10:17:50 GMT
Interesting stuff. Massa's speech about a clean slate and bringing non-Peronists in is positive - but would he? At any rate, the printers have to stop. Even if Massa doesn’t want to change the currency to the US Dollar, he has to abolish the current Peso. Israel abolished the Shekel in 1985 (when I’m pretty sure Israel has a significantly higher inflation rate at over 450%) and created the New Shekel, made many systematic changes to go along with the new currency and built confidence in it for 20 years before the last domestic sector of the economy (housing sector) stopped using the US Dollar (mid to late 2000s). I highly recommend reading about the 1985 Stabilization Plan (and not in Wikipedia). |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 23, 2023 12:01:39 GMT
Massa made a point on the campaign trail about subsidies. He noted that a bus ticket cost 59 pesos in January, and would be around 700 now were it not for subsidies.
Not mentioned elsewhere is that Massa essentially abolished income tax last month. With some other giveaways like another big public-sector payrise. Pre-election sweeties which exacerbate the problem. All paid for from Central Bank printers.
For all the talk of a break from the past - he's doing the same things as the last idiots, just with a veneer of competency.
All of this giving an inflation rate of 140 per cent, and an interest rate of 133 per cent. A high price to pay to try and stay in power, and to deny reality.
|
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on Oct 23, 2023 12:05:06 GMT
Massa made a point on the campaign trail about subsidies. He noted that a bus ticket cost 59 pesos in January, and would be around 700 now were it not for subsidies. Not mentioned elsewhere is that Massa essentially abolished income tax last month. With some other giveaways like another big public-sector payrise. Pre-election sweeties which exacerbate the problem. All paid for from Central Bank printers. For all the talk of a break from the past - he's doing the same things as the last idiots, just with a veneer of competency. All of this giving an inflation rate of 140 per cent, and an interest rate of 133 per cent. A high price to pay to try and stay in power, and to deny reality. And the people who voted against him anyway aren’t very likely to vote for him after they are going to see next month’s inflation numbers…. (Milei+Bullrich got 54% of the vote) |
|
|
|
Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Oct 23, 2023 12:35:34 GMT
It is his social policies as well that turn away urban and less religious voters. He's not just a libertarian, his social views are traditionalist Catholic. No, he is far away from being one of us, not even at the Opus Dei (like Ecuador's Lasso). A.f.a.i.k. his position against abOrtion is also an artificial solitaire and not accompanied by similar positions (so probably only/mostly done in order to attract Cath.Cons.). Then why does he claim to be a libertarian and yet syncretize his position with Catholic conservative ideology? |
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,028
|
Post by Sibboleth on Oct 23, 2023 12:55:17 GMT
No, he is far away from being one of us, not even at the Opus Dei (like Ecuador's Lasso). A.f.a.i.k. his position against abOrtion is also an artificial solitaire and not accompanied by similar positions (so probably only/mostly done in order to attract Cath.Cons.). Then why does he claim to be a libertarian and yet syncretize his position with Catholic conservative ideology? Ah, but you see politics in Argentina is not supposed to make any sense or align to anything so sordid as logic. |
|
