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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 22, 2023 15:32:50 GMT
Here's a fact. Subsidies are so out of control that Trenos Argentinos's revenues are now just 2.3 per cent of what it spends. And the organisation is so bloated that it has one employee for every kilometre of track. Utterly bizarrely, it also transpires that the previous government paid Russia 864m US dollars for electric trains to run on an unelectrified track. Russia won't be finding such friendly financing now. Lets take a moment to recall that the entire MSM and liberal establishment rallied to the cause of the human trash that governed this nation and denounced Milei as "far right. " Friend of Zelenskyy and opponent of Putin- definitely far-right and dangerous. Friend of Putin and Iran, flying planes full of banknotes over the Atlantic - completely fine. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Dec 22, 2023 17:05:26 GMT
The Bishop says he never heard the BBC call him far right.
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ibfc
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Post by ibfc on Dec 22, 2023 18:18:27 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 22, 2023 18:44:16 GMT
Interesting. Possibly a slightly rosy picture. The balance of probability is that he will not get through the term. Unless enough people finally realise that abolishing income tax and printing money aren't sustainable in the long run. It'll be interesting to see what will happen when or if it goes wrong. Will the commentators try and claim that Massa would have been better-or follow the example of the last election and pretend that there were absolutely no reasons behind the population choosing Milei? |
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ibfc
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Post by ibfc on Dec 22, 2023 19:46:45 GMT
Interesting. Possibly a slightly rosy picture. The balance of probability is that he will not get through the term. Unless enough people finally realise that abolishing income tax and printing money aren't sustainable in the long run. It'll be interesting to see what will happen when or if it goes wrong. Will the commentators try and claim that Massa would have been better-or follow the example of the last election and pretend that there were absolutely no reasons behind the population choosing Milei? You can bet on the latter. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 23, 2023 12:35:12 GMT
The Bishop says he never heard the BBC call him far right. Well what I *actually* said was that I don't follow the BBC or other "legacy" media much these days, so would be interested in actual examples. Which were duly provided. I will just add, though, that I don't think this is (in most cases, anyway) some sort of nefarious woke conspiracy. Much more a general laziness and superficiality, which shows itself in much wider respects than politics and current affairs. So much MSM coverage these days, is dumbed down. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 23, 2023 16:23:03 GMT
The Bishop says he never heard the BBC call him far right. Well what I *actually* said was that I don't follow the BBC or other "legacy" media much these days, so would be interested in actual examples. Which were duly provided. I will just add, though, that I don't think this is (in most cases, anyway) some sort of nefarious woke conspiracy. Much more a general laziness and superficiality, which shows itself in much wider respects than politics and current affairs. So much MSM coverage these days, is dumbed down. Yes - a mix of chasing lazy gotcha headlines and relying on Twitter posts as if they are reports from press agencies. |
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Post by Antiochian on Dec 28, 2023 12:04:27 GMT
In an interesting twist, a mega-bill was sent to the Congress yesterday by Milei, and one of its components was an electoral reform. This had not been part of the electoral campaign and to our knowledge had not been aired before.
Essentially, Milei wants to dump the d'Hondt system of PR currently in place and move to a system of constituencies as in the Anglo-world. At first glance this would involve each province being divided up into electorates proportionate to their current representation in Congress. However, today there have been suggestions that he actually wants to reduce the size of Congress.
In any case, the shift to electorates would likely wipe out the representatives of a lot of small parties. It might at first glance be an attempt to decrease the power of the Peronist Party (PJ), removing lists of candidates chosen from on high rather than having a "localist" political system with candidates closer to their constituents. However we would also note that Milei himself would never have made it to Congress with the system he is now proposing.
It is not clear if the new system is envisaging FPTP as in the UK and US or something more nuanced as in Australia.
Milei should be very careful what he wishes for or he may end up with a duopoly of parties at the Federal level with the Peronists being one and the "other" being in the lap of the gods depending on how the libertarian experiment goes down before the next mid-terms... or will there be mid-terms?
The one welcome development will be the abolition of the PASO (or the primaries) which have been a curse on the political landscape since the Kirchnerites cooked up this idea. The latter is probably the part of the package which will find most support in the current Congress.
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Post by Antiochian on Dec 28, 2023 13:25:58 GMT
I might also note that Milei is talking of returning to constituency-based, which has only been used once before (1902-05) when his beloved Julio A. Roca was president.
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Post by Antiochian on Dec 28, 2023 14:28:23 GMT
For those who read Spanish here is a summary (from today's La Nacion) of the changes proposed. The proposal is FPTP (mayoria simple).
Reforma electoral
El proyecto de ley que deberá ser tratado en sesiones extraordinarias plantea una reforma electoral con cambios sustanciales: pretende derogar las PASO, modificar la composición de Diputados y la representación de las provincias en la Cámara baja.
La iniciativa busca pasar a un sistema de elección por “circunscripciones uninominales” para la designación de diputados nacionales, bajo el argumento de evitar las llamadas “listas sábana”. El nuevo modelo implica dividir el territorio de cada provincia en tantas partes o circunscripciones como bancas a elegir en la Cámara baja. Cada partido político, entonces, presentaría un único candidato por cada circunscripción y en cada una de ellas se elegiría a un único representante por simple mayoría.
Respecto a la composición en Diputados, la iniciativa bajaría la cantidad de representantes de 16 distritos y aumentaría fuertemente las bancas de la provincia de Buenos Aires, que pasaría a tener 97 legisladores, 27 más que en la actualidad. “El número de diputados nacionales a elegir será de uno por cada 180.000 habitantes o fracción no menor de 90.000”, señala la iniciativa, que busca quitar el piso de cinco diputados para cada provincia.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 28, 2023 18:02:17 GMT
The import controls are gone. The first step towards normality.
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Post by uthacalthing on Dec 28, 2023 18:35:26 GMT
OMG, the trough has no swill. Pigs will go hungry.
Unless they learn to forage for Truffles
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Post by J.G.Harston on Dec 28, 2023 20:01:26 GMT
For those who read Spanish here is a summary (from today's La Nacion) of the changes proposed. The proposal is FPTP (mayoria simple). Google gives a surprisingly good translation: The bill that must be discussed in extraordinary sessions proposes an electoral reform with substantial changes: it aims to repeal the PASO, modify the composition of Deputies and the representation of the provinces in the lower House.
The initiative seeks to move to an election system by “single-member constituencies” for the designation of national deputies, under the argument of avoiding the so-called “blanket lists.” The new model involves dividing the territory of each province into as many parts or constituencies as there are seats to be elected in the lower house. Each political party, then, would present a single candidate for each constituency and in each of them a single representative would be elected by simple majority.
Regarding the composition of Deputies, the initiative would reduce the number of representatives from 16 districts and would strongly increase the seats of the province of Buenos Aires, which would have 97 legislators, 27 more than currently. “The number of national deputies to be elected will be one for every 180,000 inhabitants or fraction not less than 90,000,” states the initiative, which seeks to remove the floor of five deputies for each province.I read into this that currently Buenos Aires is under represented. Also, it implicitly sets the floor for each provice at 1 deputy. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 28, 2023 20:19:13 GMT
OMG, the trough has no swill. Pigs will go hungry. Unless they learn to forage for Truffles I saw earlier that General Motors nearly had to shut its plant in Argentina, and hospitals were unable to get hold of replacement parts for critical equipment, as a result of this setup. And that's the madness of Peronism laid bare. And this is what a Massa victory would have brought. Letting tax-paying factory workers be laid off, and the ill suffer, to maintain a make-work scheme and prop up a system where your supporters pay no income tax but have their lives subsidised by the people you've just had made redundant. |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Dec 28, 2023 20:21:53 GMT
This would be the result:
Province/District Population Now New Change
1 Buenos Aires 17,569,053 70 98 +28 +40%
2 Córdoba 3,978,984 18 22 +4 +22%
3 Santa Fe 3,556,522 19 20 +1 +5%
4 City of Buenos Aires 3,120,612 24 17 -7 -29%
5 Mendoza 2,014,533 10 11 +1 +10%
6 Tucumán 1,703,186 9 9 0 0%
7 Salta 1,440,672 7 8 +1 +14%
8 Entre Ríos 1,426,426 9 8 -1 -11%
9 Misiones 1,280,960 7 7 0 0%
10 Corrientes 1,197,553 7 7 0 0%
11 Chaco 1,142,963 7 6 -1 -14%
12 Santiago del Estero 1,054,028 7 6 -1 -14%
13 San Juan 818,234 6 5 -1 -17%
14 Jujuy 797,955 6 4 -2 -33%
15 Río Negro 762,067 5 4 -1 -20%
16 Neuquén 726,590 5 4 -1 -20%
17 Formosa 606,041 5 3 -2 -40%
18 Chubut 603,120 5 3 -2 -40%
19 San Luis 540,905 5 3 -2 -60%
20 Catamarca 429,556 5 2 -3 -60%
21 La Rioja 384,607 5 2 -3 -60%
22 La Pampa 366,022 5 2 -3 -60%
23 Santa Cruz 333,473 5 2 -3 -60%
24 Tierra del Fuego 190,641 5 1 -4 -80%
TOTAL 46,044,703 256 254 -2
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 29, 2023 12:48:52 GMT
7,000 state employees are to go. These are mostly contracts that will not be renewed when they expire, and a large part are what the locals call "noquis" - people who are put on the government payroll but don't really work there. 5,000 of these were hired in 2023, presumably as part of Alberto and Massa's pre-election binge - adding people to the payroll on your way out is a presidential tradition and allows the local political bosses their cut.
At the same time, hiring laws are to be tightened to restrict people hiring their mates into these non-existent roles.
In case you wonder why this could possibly be going on (and this went on under Macri as well as the Peronists) - an audit a few years ago found a surprising number of government employees were in fact dead, but were managing to pass performance reviews and dutifully draw a salary.
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Post by uthacalthing on Dec 29, 2023 12:59:15 GMT
Does anyone from the Labour room wish to pin their colours to the mast of being glad that Milei won?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 29, 2023 13:21:48 GMT
It is still far too soon for anyone to say that.
Never forget, "things can't possibly get any worse?" is in practice disproved quite often.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 29, 2023 13:39:01 GMT
It is still far too soon for anyone to say that. Never forget, "things can't possibly get any worse?" is in practice disproved quite often. It is indeed too soon, and the whole thing is likely to still crash down. But what we know from the last weeks of the campaign is what a Massa victory would have looked like. A continuation of the previous lunacy, with a lashing of extra lunacy cooked up to get him through the first round. |
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Post by Antiochian on Dec 29, 2023 14:20:46 GMT
7,000 state employees are to go. These are mostly contracts that will not be renewed when they expire, and a large part are what the locals call "noquis" - people who are put on the government payroll but don't really work there. 5,000 of these were hired in 2023, presumably as part of Alberto and Massa's pre-election binge - adding people to the payroll on your way out is a presidential tradition and allows the local political bosses their cut. At the same time, hiring laws are to be tightened to restrict people hiring their mates into these non-existent roles. In case you wonder why this could possibly be going on (and this went on under Macri as well as the Peronists) - an audit a few years ago found a surprising number of government employees were in fact dead, but were managing to pass performance reviews and dutifully draw a salary. Its the reason that Milei is acting now. Macri went softly, softly and found out after three years that his "change without waves" wasn't cutting it. Then he suddenly got rid of the subsidies and prices rocketed. And it was a suicide mission which took him down and returned the Kirchnerites to power. Milei is axing the subsidies now. He has the tailwind of a massive turnaround in the agricultural sector after the drought in 2022. This will bring a big bonus in forex revenue. It was revealed yesterday that the Central Bank has $23bn in USD when they keep crying poor. This is what blindsided Xi with his stupid attempt to blackmail Milei. Oops. With the BCRA not issuing local currency, then the locals need to disgorge the dollars they have stashed in the "colchon" (the mattress) that is why the dollar has not soared and is still at the levels it was when I was there in October. Added to this is the currently attractive rate at which big bearers of FDI (e.g. the lithium miners) will bring in the funds for capex they had been wary of bringing onshore pre-election. Terminating contracts of state contractors is the easy bit because they expire anyway and it doesn't need any Congressional approval. They are just not replaced. |
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