Parliamentary By-Elections - Rumoured and Ramped

[andrea]

May 4, 2013 18:35:02 GMT justlooking said:

Must admit that the first thing I did was find his constituency. Look at the 2010 result, see who would benefit from the by election. Wondered how the council results would look for his constituency as well.

If I didn't make any mistakes in understanding where each district ward is at county level, the county divisions making up his constituency are:


Ribble Valley District County Divisions

Ribble Valley NE Con 1970 UKIP 845 Lab 574 LD 231
Ribble Valley SW Con 2129 Lab 565 LD 236
Clitheroe: Con 1061 No Descr (UKIP 2010 GE candidate) 1016 LD 932 Lab 378
Longridge with Bowland: Con 1932 Lab 626 LD 207

South Ribble District divsions

Bamber Bridge & Walton-le-Dale: Lab 1151 Con 1120 UKIP 594
Farington: Con 980 Lab 958 UKIP 499 LD 107
South Ribble Rural East: Con 1288 Lab 616 UKIP 557 Ind 505

+ Tardy Gate ward which is in a division with 2 wards from another constituency

[Deleted]

So the NO description. Was that a UKIP mistake or was he not standing for UKIP?

[Pimpernal]

I'm willing to bet £50 with the first person to take up the bet that UKIP have an MP in Ribble Valley before the 2015 Election.

[Deleted]

I think Pimp given your position now, you had better modify some of your posts, like that one ...

[Deleted]

May 4, 2013 21:23:10 GMT Pimpernal said:

I'm willing to bet £50 with the first person to take up the bet that UKIP have an MP in Ribble Valley before the 2015 Election.

And if the MP is innocent?

[Pimpernal]

I will lose obviously

[Deleted]

I'm sure tricky and other LibDems would wish for a much drier byelection than that which happened in 1991....

The Labour trajectory since then has shown the clear results of demographic change, even here, which would make a byelection very interesting.

But as Nigel Evans has only just been released on bail, that's about as much speculation as I can muster right now

[Pete Whitehead]

May 5, 2013 5:22:38 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

I'm sure tricky and other LibDems would wish for a much drier byelection than that which happened in 1991....

The Labour trajectory since then has shown the clear results of demographic change, even here, which would make a byelection very interesting.

But as Nigel Evans has only just been released on bail, that's about as much speculation as I can muster right now

Nonsense. It has shown the clear results of tactical unwuind since the by-election up until 2010, when the result showed the clear result of boundary changes bringing in some much more favourable areas for Labour. You should hardly need me to point this out doktorb

[greenchristian]

May 4, 2013 21:23:10 GMT Pimpernal said:

I'm willing to bet £50 with the first person to take up the bet that UKIP have an MP in Ribble Valley before the 2015 Election.

If I had £50 spare I'd be tempted...

[Deleted]

Eric Joyce threatening to cause By Election if he deems the selection process for his successor rigged by UNITE. Sounds a little like a whole barrow load of BS, they will drag him from Westminster screaming before he gives up a penny of his money.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Apr 25, 2013 8:28:38 GMT Tony Otim said:

There seems to be a split in the views here - Farage/the Telegraph seem to think that the Pompey South demographics would be favourable to UKIP than Eatleigh due to less postal voters and public sector workers. The spectator seems to think they are less facourable due to a significantly younger population and three times the number of students.

If it falls at the right time, the students are an irrelevance.

I'd say that for UKIP, Eastleigh might have come at just the wrong time- if it had been this month, they might well have taken it.  With Winchester's Liberals in a bit of a meltdown and Labour nowhere, I could see that being a seat they'd prosper in if there were a by-election at any point.  But I do think Portsmouth South would fit the bill better than any.

[marksenior]

May 21, 2013 17:55:20 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Apr 25, 2013 8:28:38 GMT Tony Otim said:

There seems to be a split in the views here - Farage/the Telegraph seem to think that the Pompey South demographics would be favourable to UKIP than Eatleigh due to less postal voters and public sector workers. The spectator seems to think they are less facourable due to a significantly younger population and three times the number of students.

If it falls at the right time, the students are an irrelevance.

I'd say that for UKIP, Eastleigh might have come at just the wrong time- if it had been this month, they might well have taken it.  With Winchester's Liberals in a bit of a meltdown and Labour nowhere, I could see that being a seat they'd prosper in if there were a by-election at any point.  But I do think Portsmouth South would fit the bill better than any.

How are Winchester Lib Dems in a bit of a meltdown ? On the CC results making up the Winchester Parliamentary seat , it would be a quite comfortable LD gain from the Conservatives .
As for Portsmouth South , number of votes for UKIP in 2010/2011/2012 local elections ZERO .

[Merseymike]

I suppose it depends whether Portsmouth South's LD voters are:
1. Committed LibDems
2. Tactical voters aiming to keep out the Tories
3. People who vote for them because they like the local MP and council but don't have much political connection to them - and given that its Portsmouth, may well be right wing.

Its never been a Labour seat, even though its hardly affluent or pleasant - some of it looks like inner city Bootle. With Labour a clear third we wouldn't expect to win it

[Deleted]

www.scotsman.com/edinburgh-evening-news/transport/eric-joyce-mp-arrested-after-edinburgh-airport-row-1-2939379

Eric Joyce again

three strikes and you are out???

[The Bishop]

Except that he wasn't actually arrested last time - or that is what he claimed anyway??

[Deleted]

he was not so in fact just charged twice and found guilty once.

[Deleted]

May 22, 2013 12:56:20 GMT @ianrobo said:

he was not so in fact just charged twice and found guilty once.

So he is just a bit og rogue then rather than a big rogue.

First time should have been enough.

[Deleted]

yes it should and I have been consistent on that, in any normal work he would be found of gross misconduct and bringing his employer into disrepute.

Seems like as usual one rule for MP's and another for the rest of us.

20K pay rise anyone ?

[Deleted]

Right to Recall....

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Yes, it is definitely worth recalling that under the Government's draft Recall of Elected Representatives Bill, Eric Joyce would not be covered. He was convicted but merely fined and not imprisoned.