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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 24, 2013 23:49:01 GMT
A Portsmouth South by-election would be potentially very enticing for UKIP because they (and any other party for that matter) wouldn't need a very high share of the vote to win if you assume Labour would take at least 20%.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 25, 2013 0:16:25 GMT
A Portsmouth constituency has been won with 26% before, and there aren't many cities you can say that for.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 25, 2013 0:28:28 GMT
I think this was the lowest winning share ever wasn't it? Most (if not all) of that Portsmouth Central seat is now contained in Portsmouth South
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Apr 25, 2013 1:28:58 GMT
I think this was the lowest winning share ever wasn't it? Most (if not all) of that Portsmouth Central seat is now contained in Portsmouth South It was for 70 years but not any more. The winning share of the vote in Portsmouth Central in 1922 was 26.9%. This record was broken in 1992 by Inverness, Nairn & Lochaber with 26.0%. |
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Post by erlend on Apr 25, 2013 8:22:44 GMT
Eastbourne is retirementville. Portsmouth South has a seriously younger population for reasons including but not restricted to the Royal Navy. It is a more real place in my opinion. And has had Labour Cllrs in recent years. Does anyone know when Eastbourne last elected a labour cllr?
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 25, 2013 8:28:38 GMT
There seems to be a split in the views here - Farage/the Telegraph seem to think that the Pompey South demographics would be favourable to UKIP than Eatleigh due to less postal voters and public sector workers. The spectator seems to think they are less facourable due to a significantly younger population and three times the number of students.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 25, 2013 8:51:22 GMT
We definitely had at least one councillor in Eastbourne at the time of the 1990 by-election.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2013 12:06:30 GMT
There seems to be a split in the views here - Farage/the Telegraph seem to think that the Pompey South demographics would be favourable to UKIP than Eatleigh due to less postal voters and public sector workers. The spectator seems to think they are less facourable due to a significantly younger population and three times the number of students. so does those demographics not favour Labour more ? |
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Post by erlend on Apr 25, 2013 12:15:15 GMT
I would say the demographics of Pompeii are more pro Labour. They might get a higher percent than in Eastleigh :-)
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Apr 25, 2013 14:30:59 GMT
Farage/the Telegraph seem to think that the Pompey South demographics would be favourable to UKIP than Eatleigh due to less postal voters and public sector workers. Shows how little they know...  I'll adress the demographics when I've got more time. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 25, 2013 19:09:04 GMT
I would say the demographics of Pompeii are more pro Labour. They might get a higher percent than in Eastleigh :-) I'd say Pompeii is very red. Mostly due to the lava... |
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Post by erlend on Apr 26, 2013 2:01:03 GMT
Why is it Pompey (and yes I did know my musspelling).
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Apr 26, 2013 2:56:07 GMT
...Farage/the Telegraph seem to think that the Pompey South demographics would be favourable to UKIP than Eastleigh ... I would say the demographics of Pompeii are more pro Labour. They might get a higher percent than in Eastleigh :-) What has Pompeii got to do with anything?  |
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Post by innocentabroad on Apr 26, 2013 6:55:50 GMT
...Farage/the Telegraph seem to think that the Pompey South demographics would be favourable to UKIP than Eastleigh ... I would say the demographics of Pompeii are more pro Labour. They might get a higher percent than in Eastleigh :-) What has Pompeii got to do with anything? It has quite a lot to do with Herculaneum, John. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2013 18:03:14 GMT
Decided to put this news in here, seemed the best place
@skynewsbreak: Sky Sources: Deputy Commons speaker and Conservative MP Nigel Evans has been arrested on suspicion of rape
martinbrunt @skymartinbrunt
#nigelevans The rape and sexual assault allegations involve two young men and are said to have happened between July 2009 and March 2013.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2013 18:35:02 GMT
Must admit that the first thing I did was find his constituency. Look at the 2010 result, see who would benefit from the by election. Wondered how the council results would look for his constituency as well. Then thought to myself it is like sleeping in the dead mans bed no sooner than he has fell out of it and is prone on the floor.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2013 18:42:13 GMT
except we all do it when a MP dies or some of this news happens. Thats why we love this site !!
Ribble Valley would be a fascinating prospect and Labour's vote has done well there and then you have the UKIP influence ... That kind of seat is the one we all want to see a byelection in.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2013 18:48:10 GMT
except we all do it when a MP dies or some of this news happens. Thats why we love this site !! Ribble Valley would be a fascinating prospect and Labour's vote has done well there and then you have the UKIP influence ... That kind of seat is the one we all want to see a byelection in. That's my guilt sorted then  Does anyone have a breakdown from the locals to what the Ribble Valley parliamentary might have been? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2013 18:52:50 GMT
Of course should state we are not presuming anything at all and like Pompey South just discussing the seat in general if a vacancy arose.
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on May 4, 2013 21:06:52 GMT
Fklng obvious UKIP gain
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