batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Nov 18, 2024 10:06:30 GMT
That seat was formed in 1983, and at the time it was seen by some as an Alliance hope. The reasoning was that the Liberals had won the Ripon by-election in 1973, and had been close to winning Skipton in October 1974 where the Liberal candidate was the redoubtable Claire Brooks. However, some of the Liberals' best areas in those constituencies were absent from this new one, and they had gone backwards in some of their previously strong areas that remained. In the end John Watson held the seat easily for the Tories (in what was to be his last contest in a rather brief parliamentary career) and they have never been seriously challenged there ever since.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 18, 2024 10:46:19 GMT
Ironically (or something like that) a number of Lib Dem MPs have subsequently represented parts of those former constituencies. The Forest of Bowland (ex-Skipton) was briefly represented by the Lib Dems from 1991-92 as part of Ribble Valley and Sedbergh was until recently part of Tim Farron's WSestmorland & Londsdale fiefdom (both areas are now represented by Labour MPs, for the first time (although there was briefly a Common Wealth MP for Skipton following a wartime by-election)). Meanwhile Otley and Wharfedale from the old Ripon seat was represented by a Lib Dem as part of Leeds North West from 2005-2017.
The decision of the Lib Dems not to contest this seat in 2017 was bizarre.
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Post by greatkingrat on Nov 18, 2024 11:22:54 GMT
Labour were only 1600 behind in July, so I can't see the Lib Dems converting enough Labour voters to win the seat.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Nov 18, 2024 12:12:08 GMT
Ironically (or something like that) a number of Lib Dem MPs have subsequently represented parts of those former constituencies. The Forest of Bowland (ex-Skipton) was briefly represented by the Lib Dems from 1991-92 as part of Ribble Valley and Sedbergh was until recently part of Tim Farron's WSestmorland & Londsdale fiefdom (both areas are now represented by Labour MPs, for the first time (although there was briefly a Common Wealth MP for Skipton following a wartime by-election)). Meanwhile Otley and Wharfedale from the old Ripon seat was represented by a Lib Dem as part of Leeds North West from 2005-2017. The decision of the Lib Dems not to contest this seat in 2017 was bizarre. 2017 - the local party did a deal with the Greens to be given a free run at Harrogate I believe, in exchange for Skipton and Ripon. Not sanctioned by the national party. I imagine Skipton and Ripon is a much harder nut to crack with the Tories in opposition as well, than it would have been a year ago. This doesn't have anything of the Somerton and Frome 'yeah the Lib Dems really should win that one' about it. |
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Post by edgbaston on Nov 18, 2024 12:40:50 GMT
Will the Tories use this to get one of their old big hitters back in the Commons or would that go down badly - being seen to be lumbered with a loser. Would Kemi block this - why let back in a potential rival like Mordaunt
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batman
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Post by batman on Nov 18, 2024 12:58:49 GMT
The Tories are surprisingly laissez-faire when it comes to candidate selection compared with Labour. Would she really throw her weight about to that extent?
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Post by andrewp on Nov 18, 2024 13:06:38 GMT
Will the Tories use this to get one of their old big hitters back in the Commons or would that go down badly - being seen to be lumbered with a loser. Would Kemi block this - why let back in a potential rival like Mordaunt I think they would be unwise to pick a Southern defeated MP for Skipton & Ripon as a LD gain there, whilst not likely, is certainly imaginable. Hertsmere on the other hand- it would be almost impossible to see anyone else winning there, one of considerably less than 50 Con seats where that is the case - and the parliamentary party would benefit from a Mordaunt or even a Shapps. |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 18, 2024 13:45:00 GMT
Will the Tories use this to get one of their old big hitters back in the Commons or would that go down badly - being seen to be lumbered with a loser. Would Kemi block this - why let back in a potential rival like Mordaunt I think they would be unwise to pick a Southern defeated MP for Skipton & Ripon as a LD gain there, whilst not likely, is certainly imaginable. Hertsmere on the other hand- it would be almost impossible to see anyone else winning there, one of considerably less than 50 Con seats where that is the case - and the parliamentary party would benefit from a Mordaunt or even a Shapps. They really are that desperate? |
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Post by aargauer on Nov 18, 2024 14:07:15 GMT
It wouldn't be an unreasonable seat for Shapps.
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Nov 18, 2024 14:41:53 GMT
It would be a very logical one, a Hertfordshire-based practising Jew in the only county constituency with a really sizeable Jewish constituency. But his candidacy would be a strong motivating factor for the opposition, even though it wouldn't be a factor which would lead to his defeat.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2024 15:31:11 GMT
The Lib Dems should indeed throw the kitchen sink at a Skipton & Ripon by-election. It'll be very interesting to see how the issues around farmers and inheritance tax would impact a by-election there. Labour got pretty close in the GE, but I'd anticipate they'd fall back sharply. Hertsmere seems fairly bomb proof for the Tories, and they'd probably win there whoever they stood.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Nov 18, 2024 16:07:52 GMT
Will the Tories use this to get one of their old big hitters back in the Commons or would that go down badly - being seen to be lumbered with a loser. Would Kemi block this - why let back in a potential rival like Mordaunt I think they would be unwise to pick a Southern defeated MP for Skipton & Ripon as a LD gain there, whilst not likely, is certainly imaginable. Hertsmere on the other hand- it would be almost impossible to see anyone else winning there, one of considerably less than 50 Con seats where that is the case - and the parliamentary party would benefit from a Mordaunt or even a Shapps. Surely the Lib Dems would at least try in Hertsmere? They've won similar seats before, and made a lot of progress in the last Hertsmere local election. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Nov 18, 2024 16:10:48 GMT
They might well do, but that would just split the anti-Conservative vote. I just don't see them squeezing Labour to the extent needed even to get close.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Nov 18, 2024 16:24:41 GMT
They might well do, but that would just split the anti-Conservative vote. I just don't see them squeezing Labour to the extent needed even to get close. Surely that would be a greater problem in Skipton and Ripon, where Labour can feasibly point out that they were very close to winning in 2024. In Hertsmere, no party was particularly close to winning. But yes, in both cases I expect it wouldn't be easy for the Lib Dems to squeeze the Labour vote. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Nov 18, 2024 16:30:27 GMT
I think they have a better chance of doing so in S&R, where the Labour vote is less deep-rooted. In Borehamwood, it's very long-standing.
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Post by riccimarsh on Nov 18, 2024 16:36:04 GMT
Calls for a by-election in Leeds West and Pudsey:
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Nov 18, 2024 17:29:18 GMT
Who will sack Michael Crick though?
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Nov 18, 2024 18:04:33 GMT
I'm not entirely up to date with what the Reeves allegations are.
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Post by observer on Nov 18, 2024 18:37:53 GMT
I'm not entirely up to date with what the Reeves allegations are. Guido Fawkes has a number of the allegations |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Nov 18, 2024 19:04:04 GMT
I'm not entirely up to date with what the Reeves allegations are. Guido Fawkes has a number of the allegations Oh so it's complete rubbish then. I've never believed a word from him or that other one. |
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