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Post by graham on Aug 16, 2022 11:23:07 GMT
Yes, but as has already been pointed out to you the Labour "left" is far from an uncritically supportive monolith as far as JC is concerned. I would go as far as to suggest the likes of McDonnell and Abbott have suggested to him he should retire next time, provided Labour pick a suitable replacement. (the last is unfortunately not totally guaranteed, but I would hope the sensible elements in party HQ ultimately prevail on this one) I have never been a Corbynite myself - having voted for Yvette Cooper in 2015 - but I believe he would have sufficient personal support to carry him home.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 16, 2022 11:27:29 GMT
Yes, but as has already been pointed out to you the Labour "left" is far from an uncritically supportive monolith as far as JC is concerned. I would go as far as to surmise the likes of McDonnell and Abbott have suggested to him he should retire next time, provided Labour pick a suitable replacement. (the last is unfortunately not totally guaranteed, but I would hope the sensible elements in party HQ ultimately prevail on this one) Judging by a previous post, if McDonnell told him to do something he might well resolve to do the opposite...
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,541
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 16, 2022 12:22:23 GMT
Ah, the old deflect and switch. I was very specifically dissembling your assertions about the 2019 campaign in South, I'm hardly ignorant, having been campaigning in Portsmouth for over 15 years and loved here for 20, about the electoral dynamics of this seat. It is not a case of dissembling at all. I am aware that early in the 2019 campaign a poll did put Vernon -Jackson in the lead - though not decisively so. As the weeks went by the LD national campaign failed to take off as they steadily lost most of their post EU elections polling bounce and that will have been reflected in their support on the ground. Labour's national support gradually recovered and enabled the party to build on its 2017 success via an incumbency bonus. Excellent. Thank-you for acknowledging that your original assertion that Labour were always nailed on for Portsmouth South and that the potential tactical vote for the Lib Dems in the constituency could never come back was utter rubbish.
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Post by graham on Aug 16, 2022 12:59:10 GMT
It is not a case of dissembling at all. I am aware that early in the 2019 campaign a poll did put Vernon -Jackson in the lead - though not decisively so. As the weeks went by the LD national campaign failed to take off as they steadily lost most of their post EU elections polling bounce and that will have been reflected in their support on the ground. Labour's national support gradually recovered and enabled the party to build on its 2017 success via an incumbency bonus. Excellent. Thank-you for acknowledging that your original assertion that Labour were always nailed on for Portsmouth South and that the potential tactical vote for the Lib Dems in the constituency could never come back was utter rubbish. I don't think that holds true at all. The initial LD advantage - even when a fair bit of the post EU election bounce remained - was pretty small with the other main parties very close together.. Labour was still better placed there than in 1997 - and as time went by its incumbency advantage became stronger. It was one of the few seats to register a pro - Labour swing in 2019 relative to 2017 largely as a result of the LD collapse to 11.4%. I cannot see the seat being 'in play' next time.The question is can Labour recover its position in Portsmouth North - Labour -held 1997 - 2010 - by seriously challenging Penny Mordaunt?
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 16, 2022 13:04:33 GMT
FWIW I’m friends with someone who knows Mr Zeichner and she’s always long maintained that his opinion is he was losing to Julian Huppert until he got Stephen Hawking’s endorsement a couple of weeks before the election, so your PB nemesis might not have been too far wrong. hasn't Hawkings always been a labour party supporter? Not just that, his endorsements were always on leaflets going back to at least 1992. What was much more decisive was the sheer volume of activists available to campaign and to get the Labour vote out.
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Post by bigfatron on Aug 16, 2022 13:14:19 GMT
It's all part and parcel of the idiocy in 2019 of the Lib Dems and Labour often campaigning harder against each other than against Johnson's Tories; see Wimbledon, Cambridge, Cities of L&W, Kensington, etc
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Aug 16, 2022 13:28:55 GMT
What do you mean, “?”? It’s quite simple and straightforward. You said that X can and does happen. I pointed out that X can’t and doesn’t happen (which therefore means that you must be insane in order for it to be possible for you to think that X happens when it doesn’t). Therefore an explanation must be found for your insanity. I was merely moderately logically suggesting that the likely explanation for your insanity is that instead of being a human, you must be an angwantibo and that your insanity has been exacerbated by the process of swallowing a cardboard box (or, if you prefer alternative spelling, a qaadbård bocç). I don't know what an angwantibo is Given the fact that you obviously are one, you could have just looked in a mirror to find out, but as you’re obviously too daft to understand that your reflection in the mirror is a representation of you, then you’ll have to resort to what most other species do which is google it: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angwantibo
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batman
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Post by batman on Aug 16, 2022 13:37:30 GMT
hasn't Hawkings always been a labour party supporter? Not just that, his endorsements were always on leaflets going back to at least 1992. What was much more decisive was the sheer volume of activists available to campaign and to get the Labour vote out. indeed, including both you and me (I did one canvass session in the Labour stronghold of Kings Hedges)
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batman
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Post by batman on Aug 16, 2022 13:39:11 GMT
Excellent. Thank-you for acknowledging that your original assertion that Labour were always nailed on for Portsmouth South and that the potential tactical vote for the Lib Dems in the constituency could never come back was utter rubbish. I don't think that holds true at all. The initial LD advantage - even when a fair bit of the post EU election bounce remained - was pretty small with the other main parties very close together.. Labour was still better placed there than in 1997 - and as time went by its incumbency advantage became stronger. It was one of the few seats to register a pro - Labour swing in 2019 relative to 2017 largely as a result of the LD collapse to 11.4%. I cannot see the seat being 'in play' next time.The question is can Labour recover its position in Portsmouth North - Labour -held 1997 - 2010 - by seriously challenging Penny Mordaunt? only if Labour wins a huge landslide. If Labour wins the next election, it looks very much like being the first time that Labour will have won since 1964 without winning that seat or its linear predecessor. They will win Portsmouth South instead. I suspect Labour may win North at some point in the future, but don't think it'll be next time.
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Post by graham on Aug 16, 2022 13:57:32 GMT
I don't think that holds true at all. The initial LD advantage - even when a fair bit of the post EU election bounce remained - was pretty small with the other main parties very close together.. Labour was still better placed there than in 1997 - and as time went by its incumbency advantage became stronger. It was one of the few seats to register a pro - Labour swing in 2019 relative to 2017 largely as a result of the LD collapse to 11.4%. I cannot see the seat being 'in play' next time.The question is can Labour recover its position in Portsmouth North - Labour -held 1997 - 2010 - by seriously challenging Penny Mordaunt? only if Labour wins a huge landslide. If Labour wins the next election, it looks very much like being the first time that Labour will have won since 1964 without winning that seat or its linear predecessor. They will win Portsmouth South instead. I suspect Labour may win North at some point in the future, but don't think it'll be next time. Labour did hold Portsmouth North in 2005 despite only enjoying a 3% GB lead in vote share.Given that Labour's loss of support in Scotland post 2014 cost the party circa 2% in GB vote share terms the 2005 equates to a circa 1% Labour lead on the basis of current polling.
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Khunanup
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Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 16, 2022 14:04:38 GMT
I don't think that holds true at all. The initial LD advantage - even when a fair bit of the post EU election bounce remained - was pretty small with the other main parties very close together.. Labour was still better placed there than in 1997 - and as time went by its incumbency advantage became stronger. It was one of the few seats to register a pro - Labour swing in 2019 relative to 2017 largely as a result of the LD collapse to 11.4%. I cannot see the seat being 'in play' next time.The question is can Labour recover its position in Portsmouth North - Labour -held 1997 - 2010 - by seriously challenging Penny Mordaunt? only if Labour wins a huge landslide. If Labour wins the next election, it looks very much like being the first time that Labour will have won since 1964 without winning that seat or its linear predecessor. They will win Portsmouth South instead. I suspect Labour may win North at some point in the future, but don't think it'll be next time. The two Portsmouth seats are moving in opposite directions and the only chance Labour have in North, and in fact the Tories have in South now, is that the offer from the Tories tacks back to a Cameroonie type model that isn't obsessed by culture wars and throwing red meat to the Hard Right. Even then, North would be a real stretch as Labour have lost a lot of their old core vote in the seat for various reasons.
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Post by matureleft on Aug 16, 2022 14:27:41 GMT
only if Labour wins a huge landslide. If Labour wins the next election, it looks very much like being the first time that Labour will have won since 1964 without winning that seat or its linear predecessor. They will win Portsmouth South instead. I suspect Labour may win North at some point in the future, but don't think it'll be next time. Labour did hold Portsmouth North in 2005 despite only enjoying a 3% GB lead in vote share.Given that Labour's loss of support in Scotland post 2014 cost the party circa 2% in GB vote share terms the 2005 equates to a circa 1% Labour lead on the basis of current polling. There was a boundary change in 2010, Not a huge one, but the ward added is heavily non-Labour.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 16, 2022 14:36:29 GMT
Yes it was enough to make North a notional Conservative seat in 2005 IIRC
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Khunanup
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Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 16, 2022 14:58:08 GMT
Labour did hold Portsmouth North in 2005 despite only enjoying a 3% GB lead in vote share.Given that Labour's loss of support in Scotland post 2014 cost the party circa 2% in GB vote share terms the 2005 equates to a circa 1% Labour lead on the basis of current polling. There was a boundary change in 2010, Not a huge one, but the ward added is heavily non-Labour. Yes, though rather two thirds of a newly created ward and the loss of a small part of a different ward to South (which was a heavily Labour area).
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 17, 2022 7:21:21 GMT
Not really. By winning from third place in 2017 Labour had become the clear anti- Tory option. Much of the earlier support there for Mike Hancock came from tactical Labour voters to beat the Tory. Once Labour had won the seat those voters were highly unlikely to revert to voting LD - indeed quite a few who had stuck with the LDs in 2017 switched to Labour in 2019. The seat is also a good example of how LD strength at Local Elections does not translate into support at Parliamentary Elections - one reason why I remain sceptical re- LD prospects in Wimbledon. I live here, I'm a councillor here, I know what went on in the pre-campaign and the campaign period (surprisingly enough...) and the situation isn't at all as you portray. So what happened between the third and second week out, to move it from blind speculation to blindingly obvious? I had Portsmouth South on my 'seats to bet on' list but by the time I got around to betting on Labour the price had gone, but that was at least three weeks out.
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Khunanup
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Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 17, 2022 8:57:52 GMT
I live here, I'm a councillor here, I know what went on in the pre-campaign and the campaign period (surprisingly enough...) and the situation isn't at all as you portray. So what happened between the third and second week out, to move it from blind speculation to blindingly obvious? I had Portsmouth South on my 'seats to bet on' list but by the time I got around to betting on Labour the price had gone, but that was at least three weeks out. Just the impact of the binary choice campaign and our drop in the polls and Labour's rise. At three weeks out that shift of the anti-Tory vote was still going on (with Labour ahead of the Lib Dems but not decisively enough at that point to be nailed on for the seat), by two weeks out they were very obviously going to win, and pretty comfortably, with that shift being complete.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 17, 2022 11:54:13 GMT
I don't think that holds true at all. The initial LD advantage - even when a fair bit of the post EU election bounce remained - was pretty small with the other main parties very close together.. Labour was still better placed there than in 1997 - and as time went by its incumbency advantage became stronger. It was one of the few seats to register a pro - Labour swing in 2019 relative to 2017 largely as a result of the LD collapse to 11.4%. I cannot see the seat being 'in play' next time.The question is can Labour recover its position in Portsmouth North - Labour -held 1997 - 2010 - by seriously challenging Penny Mordaunt? only if Labour wins a huge landslide. If Labour wins the next election, it looks very much like being the first time that Labour will have won since 1964 without winning that seat or its linear predecessor. They will win Portsmouth South instead. I suspect Labour may win North at some point in the future, but don't think it'll be next time. It may possibly be when PM retires, at least if that is also an anti-Tory "wave" election.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2022 10:02:22 GMT
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Post by stb12 on Aug 18, 2022 17:51:45 GMT
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Sg1
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Post by Sg1 on Aug 18, 2022 23:54:23 GMT
Hope he's got good office staff and a strong support network
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