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Post by kevinf on Aug 24, 2022 12:03:40 GMT
Mid Bedfordshire. Anyone know anything about the Nadine Dorries situation? Resignation honours peerage? Article on Political Betting site.
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YL
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Post by YL on Aug 24, 2022 14:37:27 GMT
Mid Bedfordshire. Anyone know anything about the Nadine Dorries situation? Resignation honours peerage? Article on Political Betting site. It has already been discussed a bit upthread: rumours are that Johnson's resignation honours will include peerages for a handful of MPs, including Dorries, causing by-elections. One aspect of the PB article I hadn't seen before was the possibility Rees-Mogg might be on the list as well; the name I'd previously seen mentioned other than Dorries was Nigel Adams.
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batman
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Post by batman on Aug 24, 2022 15:05:38 GMT
Labour would certainly win a by-election in NE Somerset in the current climate. I'd be surprised if the Tories could hold Selby & Ainsty either. The polls seem to have taken a distinct turn for the worse for the Tories in the last week & a bit and not many expect them to get better any time soon either.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 24, 2022 15:33:12 GMT
Mid Bedfordshire. Anyone know anything about the Nadine Dorries situation? Resignation honours peerage? Article on Political Betting site. It has already been discussed a bit upthread: rumours are that Johnson's resignation honours will include peerages for a handful of MPs, including Dorries, causing by-elections. One aspect of the PB article I hadn't seen before was the possibility Rees-Mogg might be on the list as well; the name I'd previously seen mentioned other than Dorries was Nigel Adams. Equally there are reports that JRM is being lined up as Levelling Up Secretary in a Truss Cabinet, which I find slightly more credible as I don’t think he’s ready to let go of the levers of power quite yet, whereas Dorries probably knows she’s punching way above her weight.
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Post by andrewp on Aug 24, 2022 15:36:48 GMT
Labour would certainly win a by-election in NE Somerset in the current climate. I'd be surprised if the Tories could hold Selby & Ainsty either. The polls seem to have taken a distinct turn for the worse for the Tories in the last week & a bit and not many expect them to get better any time soon either. I’m not sure about NE Somerset. The Start of the campaign would be crucial. I think the Lib Dems would win it. They have a lot more to build on there than in Tiverton or North Shropshire.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 24, 2022 15:46:37 GMT
It has already been discussed a bit upthread: rumours are that Johnson's resignation honours will include peerages for a handful of MPs, including Dorries, causing by-elections. One aspect of the PB article I hadn't seen before was the possibility Rees-Mogg might be on the list as well; the name I'd previously seen mentioned other than Dorries was Nigel Adams. Equally there are reports that JRM is being lined up as Levelling Up Secretary in a Truss Cabinet, which I find slightly more credible as I don’t think he’s ready to let go of the levers of power quite yet, whereas Dorries probably knows she’s punching way above her weight. He's had (how to phrase this diplomatically) what you might call limited impact in the ill defined government efficiency role. Levelling Up Secretary might be a good fit because he's quite energetic: it's a new role so needs someone who can get things moving but there might be some concerns that it would be all light and no heat. Whereas with Gove you could reasonably expect light and heat. I suspect JRM might be less keen on working out of Wolverhampton in that new building they've got.
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batman
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Post by batman on Aug 24, 2022 17:17:08 GMT
Labour would certainly win a by-election in NE Somerset in the current climate. I'd be surprised if the Tories could hold Selby & Ainsty either. The polls seem to have taken a distinct turn for the worse for the Tories in the last week & a bit and not many expect them to get better any time soon either. I’m not sure about NE Somerset. The Start of the campaign would be crucial. I think the Lib Dems would win it. They have a lot more to build on there than in Tiverton or North Shropshire. disagree. Labour is second in the constituency and held a very similar one until 2010. The most recent YouGov poll suggested that Labour would win it in a general, never mind a by-, election. The Lib Dems would not risk seriously campaigning & splitting the vote in the seat and would effectively give Labour a free run at the anti-Tory vote. Mid Beds is a much more likely target for the LDs. Yes I know that NE Somerset is next to Bath, but the two seats are very dissimilar in their demography & political history.
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batman
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Post by batman on Aug 24, 2022 17:19:34 GMT
Whereas in e.g. Tiverton & Honiton Labour's second place is only a recent one, Labour has been second or first in NE Somerset or its linear predecessor Wansdyke continuously since 1992.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 24, 2022 17:23:38 GMT
I’m not sure about NE Somerset. The Start of the campaign would be crucial. I think the Lib Dems would win it. They have a lot more to build on there than in Tiverton or North Shropshire. disagree. Labour is second in the constituency and held a very similar one until 2010. The most recent YouGov poll suggested that Labour would win it in a general, never mind a by-, election. The Lib Dems would not risk seriously campaigning & splitting the vote in the seat and would effectively give Labour a free run at the anti-Tory vote. Mid Beds is a much more likely target for the LDs. Yes I know that NE Somerset is next to Bath, but the two seats are very dissimilar in their demography & political history. Not that clear - 2% ahead at the last election. The Lib Dems also have the largest number of local councillors in the constituency - Labour's support is very limited to the Midsomer-Norton-Radstock area. You could actually see this seat being a case like Eastleigh where the Conservatives drop from first to third - if the kind of Conservative collapse witnessed in eg Shropshire North or Tiverton & Honiton were repeated here there would be scope for both opposition parties to poll well without letting the Conservatives through the middle
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Post by Wisconsin on Aug 24, 2022 17:29:58 GMT
Mid Bedfordshire. Anyone know anything about the Nadine Dorries situation? Resignation honours peerage? Article on Political Betting site. It has already been discussed a bit upthread: rumours are that Johnson's resignation honours will include peerages for a handful of MPs, including Dorries, causing by-elections. One aspect of the PB article I hadn't seen before was the possibility Rees-Mogg might be on the list as well; the name I'd previously seen mentioned other than Dorries was Nigel Adams. If Dorries were to feature on the honours list, at what point does she get disqualified from being an MP? Is it the date of the announcement, or the date she’s sworn in? (Or some other date?) I’m wondering if it’s possible to keep the appointment in your pocket and only take up your peerage after the next General Election is called? (It feels like a constitutionally dodgy thing to try - appropriate for one of the last acts of this particular government).
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batman
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Post by batman on Aug 24, 2022 18:00:34 GMT
that's basically not that dissimilar to the John Mann situation in 2019.
Pete may have a point about the Tories being third in NE Somerset, although the current non-aggression vibes make it seem less likely.
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 24, 2022 18:22:36 GMT
Mid Bedfordshire. Anyone know anything about the Nadine Dorries situation? Resignation honours peerage? Article on Political Betting site. It has already been discussed a bit upthread: rumours are that Johnson's resignation honours will include peerages for a handful of MPs, including Dorries, causing by-elections. One aspect of the PB article I hadn't seen before was the possibility Rees-Mogg might be on the list as well; the name I'd previously seen mentioned other than Dorries was Nigel Adams. Like Mogg-Rees would ever take anything less than a hereditary peerage.
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iain
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Post by iain on Aug 24, 2022 18:26:49 GMT
I’m not sure about NE Somerset. The Start of the campaign would be crucial. I think the Lib Dems would win it. They have a lot more to build on there than in Tiverton or North Shropshire. disagree. Labour is second in the constituency and held a very similar one until 2010. The most recent YouGov poll suggested that Labour would win it in a general, never mind a by-, election. The Lib Dems would not risk seriously campaigning & splitting the vote in the seat and would effectively give Labour a free run at the anti-Tory vote. Mid Beds is a much more likely target for the LDs. Yes I know that NE Somerset is next to Bath, but the two seats are very dissimilar in their demography & political history. When it comes to Lib Dem attempts / chances, this is where your analysis falls down.
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Post by evergreenadam on Aug 24, 2022 18:43:31 GMT
It has already been discussed a bit upthread: rumours are that Johnson's resignation honours will include peerages for a handful of MPs, including Dorries, causing by-elections. One aspect of the PB article I hadn't seen before was the possibility Rees-Mogg might be on the list as well; the name I'd previously seen mentioned other than Dorries was Nigel Adams. Equally there are reports that JRM is being lined up as Levelling Up Secretary in a Truss Cabinet, which I find slightly more credible as I don’t think he’s ready to let go of the levers of power quite yet, whereas Dorries probably knows she’s punching way above her weight. JRM - we will all be promised a nanny and a Rolls Royce?
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graham
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Post by graham on Aug 24, 2022 18:56:30 GMT
disagree. Labour is second in the constituency and held a very similar one until 2010. The most recent YouGov poll suggested that Labour would win it in a general, never mind a by-, election. The Lib Dems would not risk seriously campaigning & splitting the vote in the seat and would effectively give Labour a free run at the anti-Tory vote. Mid Beds is a much more likely target for the LDs. Yes I know that NE Somerset is next to Bath, but the two seats are very dissimilar in their demography & political history. Not that clear - 2% ahead at the last election. The Lib Dems also have the largest number of local councillors in the constituency - Labour's support is very limited to the Midsomer-Norton-Radstock area. You could actually see this seat being a case like Eastleigh where the Conservatives drop from first to third - if the kind of Conservative collapse witnessed in eg Shropshire North or Tiverton & Honiton were repeated here there would be scope for both opposition parties to poll well without letting the Conservatives through the middle There was quite a lot of hype early in the 2019 campaign re- LD prospects there based on their performance at the EU elections. They were claiming to be the main challengers to the Tories - yet still came in third despite Labour's poor national result. The former Labour MP for Wansdyke is now, I believe, the West of England Mayor.
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batman
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Post by batman on Aug 24, 2022 19:37:07 GMT
he is indeed.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 24, 2022 19:44:38 GMT
I cannot see Jacob Rees-Mogg going to the Lords just yet. If he did, I do not doubt Labour would be the main challengers. With lots of Labour activists from Bristol and parts of the West Country, they will not simply back down for the Liberal Democrats. For reasons I have previously laid out, the far more likely byelection in Selby & Ainsty would be a very good opportunity for Labour.
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Aug 24, 2022 20:08:19 GMT
JRM would make a lousy ‘Levelling Up’ secretary. Most of the core decisions are around contentious and nationally significant planning applications and dealing with the muck that comes with local Government. Not much opportunity for grand-standing there and plenty of detail needed where he can’t avoid making enemies whatever he chooses. Unless he thinks he can rewrite the National Planning Policy Framework i can’t imagine a role he’d be less well suited-for.
Interesting to see the confidence from respected members of the red team on NE Somerset - My best guess is for them to come third if it came to it. Fundamentals for LDs better than any of their pickups so far and that’s before you factor in the Bath local party next door.
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Aug 24, 2022 21:01:50 GMT
Equally there are reports that JRM is being lined up as Levelling Up Secretary in a Truss Cabinet, which I find slightly more credible as I don’t think he’s ready to let go of the levers of power quite yet, whereas Dorries probably knows she’s punching way above her weight. JRM - we will all be promised a nanny and a Rolls Royce? Surely it would be jam rolls tomorrow.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Aug 24, 2022 21:42:20 GMT
JRM would make a lousy ‘Levelling Up’ secretary. Most of the core decisions are around contentious and nationally significant planning applications and dealing with the muck that comes with local Government. Not much opportunity for grand-standing there and plenty of detail needed where he can’t avoid making enemies whatever he chooses. Unless he thinks he can rewrite the National Planning Policy Framework i can’t imagine a role he’d be less well suited-for. Interesting to see the confidence from respected members of the red team on NE Somerset - My best guess is for them to come third if it came to it. Fundamentals for LDs better than any of their pickups so far and that’s before you factor in the Bath local party next door. It’s bad enough having the MP for Tunbridge Wells as the Levelling-up Secretary. That only fits Sunak’s definition of levelling up. Yes, yes, Gove was from Surrey but if pressed he’d play on his humble Aberdeen upbringing wouldn’t he. Neither are a patch on Nandy of Wigan though. If Labour were to come third in NES I think of all the by elections (bar H’pool) that would be the most damaging for Starmer as it shows consistency in coming third (winning Wakefield was a given…) but what’s worse is, as has been said, Labour were consistently runners-up and winners in ‘Wansdyke’ during the Blair years, and even in 2017 were ‘winnable’ runners up, not a distant second a la NShropshire/T&H. But it looks like neither will budge given the closeness of second/third and it could be an ugly campaign which could see the Tory sneak through. At a GE this does pose some interesting questions for ‘split opposition’ places like Wimbledon - again surely both main parties will fight it to the bitter end? LDs would probably point to something like St Albans - super-remain and just because you Labour were winners in the Blair years doesn’t give you divine cosmic justice to win it back, so we won it instead… but Labour will equally maintain they have had proven success in the past. There probably aren’t as many massively split opposition constituencies these days, mind, in England, compared to 1997, where I think there were a few missed opportunities where proper tactical voting could have seen even more conservatives removed - Folkestone, Wells and Salisbury are some examples of the top of my head where LDs underperformed and a lot of votes were wasted on a third-place surge in Labour votes only for them to stay in third. Equally several seats where Labour reduced the Tory majority to three figures, but where there were still thousands of votes for the LDs (Hexham, SW Bedford). But maybe that’s just me being greedy - after all Labour did win some seats from third place in 97…
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