batman
Labour
Posts: 9,124
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Aug 16, 2022 6:56:22 GMT
FWIW I’m friends with someone who knows Mr Zeichner and she’s always long maintained that his opinion is he was losing to Julian Huppert until he got Stephen Hawking’s endorsement a couple of weeks before the election, so your PB nemesis might not have been too far wrong. hasn't Hawkings always been a labour party supporter? he was a long-term Labour supporter yes.
|
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 9,124
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Aug 16, 2022 6:58:35 GMT
OK so you think it would happen; I think Labour is far too tribal and supporting candidates against an official Labour candidate is such a no-no that it really wouldn't happen. BUT - we seem to be agreed that it's a useful marker. If it does happen, then it's a sign to me that I might be wrong. If it doesn't - perhaps something you might reflect on? (I do think you are right that nothing could be done about any candidates after close of nominations - but easy to see them not being allowed the whip after the election, should the leadership wish it.) Does anyone know if any Labour MPs officially backed Ken Livingstone when he ran as an independent in 2000? no, none did. Many will have done what I did, voted 1st pref for Frank Dobson knowing that their 2nd pref votes would transfer to Livingstone. I wouldn't do that today though.
|
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 9,124
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Aug 16, 2022 7:01:15 GMT
I do see Mcdonnell, Abbot, Long Bailey, Burgon et al giving Corbyn support. How open it would be is not entirely clear , but some are too far into their careers to be much bothered by what Starmer might think. McDonnell and Abbott possibly if they decide to retire (have they said?), Burgon is probably stupid enough, RLB I doubt, she wants a position back, and you could be a tad clever and give her a Party role of working with Burnham on winning the marginal seats in the North West as, to give her dues, she appears to be an assiduous campaigner around Greater Manchester, and working with some not obvious colleagues like Mohammed Afzal. Of course the other question is would Corbyn accept their help, knowing the consequences for their future in the Party, or does he tell them it’s more important to keep fighting for their shared beliefs from within the Party. Mostly you're right here, in all likelihood. Corbyn however is definitely selfish enough to accept the help regardless of consequence.
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on Aug 16, 2022 7:32:58 GMT
There's an illusion among some about the scale of personal loyalty that Corbyn has among fellow left MPs, and about the homogeneity of the left of the party in Parliament.
Corbyn was the selected left candidate for the leadership essentially because nobody else wanted to do it. Of course the things he's been interested in overlap with the interests of others but his particular concerns aren't shared as deeply. Nor are all nearly as permissive about far left behaviours. It's notable that no other MP followed his example of attempting to contextualise, and through doing that diminish, the problem of antisemitism in the party after the EHRC report.
To be blunt, some on the Left will have regarded the wresting and maintenance of control of the party as a serious political project with these things, at best, a most unwelcome distraction that should have been dealt with firmly straight away (probably balanced by a further push against the Right). They will have been frustrated by the way the whole issue was handled.
I would guess that Corbyn was initially under private pressure to find a way back into the PLP. His prideful obstinacy clearly stopped that. I'd now assume that he's under pressure to retire and concentrate on issues he cares about, plus assisting the selection of a left successor and helping other left candidates (as he's a party member that should present no difficulty). If Starmer's team is wise (and that's far from guaranteed) they'll be facilitating those steps.
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Aug 16, 2022 7:37:04 GMT
no the party can replace candidates after nominations closed. It has happened No it can’t, and no it hasn’t. If you think that such a thing is possible, you must be an angwantibo who has accidentally swallowed a cardboard box. ?
|
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,565
|
Post by Khunanup on Aug 16, 2022 8:09:41 GMT
Though with Portsmouth South, if you were certain of Labour holding on before three weeks out from the election you were merely blindly speculating. Within the last two weeks it was blindingly obvious that they were going to win. Post a Labour government it'll be interesting again, and/or demographic change if it gets there first (which is highly unlikely). Not really. By winning from third place in 2017 Labour had become the clear anti- Tory option. Much of the earlier support there for Mike Hancock came from tactical Labour voters to beat the Tory. Once Labour had won the seat those voters were highly unlikely to revert to voting LD - indeed quite a few who had stuck with the LDs in 2017 switched to Labour in 2019. The seat is also a good example of how LD strength at Local Elections does not translate into support at Parliamentary Elections - one reason why I remain sceptical re- LD prospects in Wimbledon. I live here, I'm a councillor here, I know what went on in the pre-campaign and the campaign period (surprisingly enough...) and the situation isn't at all as you portray.
|
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,002
Member is Online
|
Post by graham on Aug 16, 2022 8:18:48 GMT
I am not particularly suggesting that Abbott and McDonnell will retire - rather that after close of nominations they may back Corbyn in public - knowing the party can no longer deselect them to run another candidate! Starmer could still disown them, but what would be the point given that he would need their votes in the next Parliament? He would hope that he wouldn’t need them, and equally he’s going to have them anyway; if the choice is Starmer or (for the sake of argument) Truss as PM in a confidence vote, who are they going to back? Again, even if they abstained, they would never be forgiven by their own allies if the result was a Tory government; they could only do it if their vote was irrelevant given the overall numbers, in which case we’re back to Starmer not needing them. It really is a farcical proposition you’re flogging here. I don't think it can be assumed that Starmer would not be blamed by leftwing activists within the party. Campaign Group MPs would simply be able to say 'If you want our votes, give us back the Whip - otherwise go forth and multiply!' In a Hung Parliament the Campaign Group could have a lot of leverage.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Aug 16, 2022 8:23:09 GMT
He would hope that he wouldn’t need them, and equally he’s going to have them anyway; if the choice is Starmer or (for the sake of argument) Truss as PM in a confidence vote, who are they going to back? Again, even if they abstained, they would never be forgiven by their own allies if the result was a Tory government; they could only do it if their vote was irrelevant given the overall numbers, in which case we’re back to Starmer not needing them. It really is a farcical proposition you’re flogging here. I don't think it can be assumed that Starmer would not be blamed by leftwing activists within the party. Campaign Group MPs would simply be able to say 'If you want our votes, give us back the Whip - otherwise go forth and multiply!' In a Hung Parliament the Campaign Group could have a lot of leverage. I’m sorry but your grasp on reality is becoming more tenuous by the post.
|
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,002
Member is Online
|
Post by graham on Aug 16, 2022 8:34:22 GMT
Not really. By winning from third place in 2017 Labour had become the clear anti- Tory option. Much of the earlier support there for Mike Hancock came from tactical Labour voters to beat the Tory. Once Labour had won the seat those voters were highly unlikely to revert to voting LD - indeed quite a few who had stuck with the LDs in 2017 switched to Labour in 2019. The seat is also a good example of how LD strength at Local Elections does not translate into support at Parliamentary Elections - one reason why I remain sceptical re- LD prospects in Wimbledon. I live here, I'm a councillor here, I know what went on in the pre-campaign and the campaign period (surprisingly enough...) and the situation isn't at all as you portray. Are you really denying that there was massive Labour tactical voting during Mike Hancock's tenure as the MP? In 2010 he polled 45.9% of the vote - in 2019 Vernon Jackson the new LD candidate received 11.4%. Labour polled 13.7% in 2010 and 48.6% in 2019.
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Aug 16, 2022 8:44:19 GMT
I think we've probably taken up enough space on this thread we can on this topic.
In conclusion Corbyns too loyal to actually stand against Labour and any support he receives if he did stand isn't likely to be public
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Aug 16, 2022 9:07:15 GMT
No it can’t, and no it hasn’t. If you think that such a thing is possible, you must be an angwantibo who has accidentally swallowed a cardboard box. ? What do you mean, “?”? It’s quite simple and straightforward. You said that X can and does happen. I pointed out that X can’t and doesn’t happen (which therefore means that you must be insane in order for it to be possible for you to think that X happens when it doesn’t). Therefore an explanation must be found for your insanity. I was merely moderately logically suggesting that the likely explanation for your insanity is that instead of being a human, you must be an angwantibo and that your insanity has been exacerbated by the process of swallowing a cardboard box (or, if you prefer alternative spelling, a qaadbård bocç).
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Aug 16, 2022 10:10:49 GMT
What do you mean, “?”? It’s quite simple and straightforward. You said that X can and does happen. I pointed out that X can’t and doesn’t happen (which therefore means that you must be insane in order for it to be possible for you to think that X happens when it doesn’t). Therefore an explanation must be found for your insanity. I was merely moderately logically suggesting that the likely explanation for your insanity is that instead of being a human, you must be an angwantibo and that your insanity has been exacerbated by the process of swallowing a cardboard box (or, if you prefer alternative spelling, a qaadbård bocç). I don't know what an angwantibo is
|
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,565
|
Post by Khunanup on Aug 16, 2022 10:11:05 GMT
I live here, I'm a councillor here, I know what went on in the pre-campaign and the campaign period (surprisingly enough...) and the situation isn't at all as you portray. Are you really denying that there was massive Labour tactical voting during Mike Hancock's tenure as the MP? In 2010 he polled 45.9% of the vote - in 2019 Vernon Jackson the new LD candidate received 11.4%. Labour polled 13.7% in 2010 and 48.6% in 2019. Ah, the old deflect and switch. I was very specifically dissembling your assertions about the 2019 campaign in South, I'm hardly ignorant, having been campaigning in Portsmouth for over 15 years and lived here for 20, about the electoral dynamics of this seat.
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Aug 16, 2022 10:23:11 GMT
Are you really denying that there was massive Labour tactical voting during Mike Hancock's tenure as the MP? In 2010 he polled 45.9% of the vote - in 2019 Vernon Jackson the new LD candidate received 11.4%. Labour polled 13.7% in 2010 and 48.6% in 2019. Ah, the old deflect and switch. I was very specifically dissembling your assertions about the 2019 campaign in South, I'm hardly ignorant, having been campaigning in Portsmouth for over 15 years and loved here for 20, about the electoral dynamics of this seat. you saucy boy, you.
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Aug 16, 2022 10:28:36 GMT
What do you mean, “?”? It’s quite simple and straightforward. You said that X can and does happen. I pointed out that X can’t and doesn’t happen (which therefore means that you must be insane in order for it to be possible for you to think that X happens when it doesn’t). Therefore an explanation must be found for your insanity. I was merely moderately logically suggesting that the likely explanation for your insanity is that instead of being a human, you must be an angwantibo and that your insanity has been exacerbated by the process of swallowing a cardboard box (or, if you prefer alternative spelling, a qaadbård bocç). I don't know what an angwantibo is I'll lend you my copy of the John Loony Dictionary of Difficult Words.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Aug 16, 2022 10:36:07 GMT
Are you really denying that there was massive Labour tactical voting during Mike Hancock's tenure as the MP? In 2010 he polled 45.9% of the vote - in 2019 Vernon Jackson the new LD candidate received 11.4%. Labour polled 13.7% in 2010 and 48.6% in 2019. Ah, the old deflect and switch. I was very specifically dissembling your assertions about the 2019 campaign in South, I'm hardly ignorant, having been campaigning in Portsmouth for over 15 years and loved here for 20, about the electoral dynamics of this seat. Move over Rome, Venice and Paris, we have a new City of Love (could this be one of Rees Mogg’s Brexit Bonuses?).
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Aug 16, 2022 10:53:10 GMT
Did lots of sitting Labour MPs openly support SO Davies, Milne and indeed Taverne when they stood against official candidates in the 1970-74 period?
The answer is no, they didn't (even if some will certainly have privately sympathised in each case)
So why would this, at least, be much different with Corbyn now? Things may have changed a bit since then, but not that much.
|
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,002
Member is Online
|
Post by graham on Aug 16, 2022 11:12:16 GMT
Did lots of sitting Labour MPs openly support SO Davies, Milne and indeed Taverne when they stood against official candidates in the 1970-74 period? The answer is no, they didn't (even if some will certainly have privately sympathised in each case) So why would this, at least, be much different with Corbyn now? Things may have changed a bit since then, but not that much. Probably because he is a recent former Leader with a significant band of supporters. Many party members - and quite a few MPs - view Starmer as the traitor.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Aug 16, 2022 11:16:24 GMT
Yes, but as has already been pointed out to you the Labour "left" is far from an uncritically supportive monolith as far as JC is concerned.
I would go as far as to surmise the likes of McDonnell and Abbott have suggested to him he should retire next time, provided Labour pick a suitable replacement.
(the last is unfortunately not totally guaranteed, but I would hope the sensible elements in party HQ ultimately prevail on this one)
|
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,002
Member is Online
|
Post by graham on Aug 16, 2022 11:19:43 GMT
Are you really denying that there was massive Labour tactical voting during Mike Hancock's tenure as the MP? In 2010 he polled 45.9% of the vote - in 2019 Vernon Jackson the new LD candidate received 11.4%. Labour polled 13.7% in 2010 and 48.6% in 2019. Ah, the old deflect and switch. I was very specifically dissembling your assertions about the 2019 campaign in South, I'm hardly ignorant, having been campaigning in Portsmouth for over 15 years and loved here for 20, about the electoral dynamics of this seat. It is not a case of dissembling at all. I am aware that early in the 2019 campaign a poll did put Vernon -Jackson in the lead - though not decisively so. As the weeks went by the LD national campaign failed to take off as they steadily lost most of their post EU elections polling bounce and that will have been reflected in their support on the ground. Labour's national support gradually recovered and enabled the party to build on its 2017 success via an incumbency bonus.
|
|