European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
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Post by European Lefty on Jul 10, 2022 10:15:08 GMT
Mid Bedfordshire is generally more "wealthy commuter" than any of the LD gains from Tory so far. The sort of place where most people will vote Tory for low taxes even in a by-election. There are some poorer areas in Flitwick and around the old brickworking areas which have a decent Labour vote. But I genuinely think Mid Beds would withstand even a by-election if it happened More "wealthy commuter" than Chesham and Amersham? I realise that seat has Chesham town which is more middling than wealthy and can have a decent Labour vote, but the vast majority of the seat comprises areas like the Chalfonts which are fit that description better than almost anywhere. At least on a par, certainly
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 10, 2022 10:23:11 GMT
No - I doubt it on any measure
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jul 10, 2022 10:39:26 GMT
There are parts that are well heeled and known to people for whatever reason: Woburn is an example. This gives the impression that the seat is full of loaded Tory voters. There are less well heeled parts and well known parts, like Flitwick, that aren't full of wealthy people. Take a look around Flitwick on Streetview and you'll see what I mean.
It's the kind of seat where people see one area and think all of it is like that. Cf, Totnes.
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Post by andrewp on Jul 10, 2022 10:52:51 GMT
I think with C and A, we didn’t have anything to go on. Caused by the death of a well respected MP so no scandal, a bit remain, but nothing to go on, so a Conservative hold looked possible. Move on to North Shropshire, add in a MP with a scandal, but factor in it was a leave seat, put that through the algorithm and it still falls. By the time we Moved on to Tiverton, we had the pattern. MP with a bit of a scandal, but generally quite well liked. It was obvious from the start that it would be a LD gain Weve got the pattern now. Mid Bedfordshire would be a LD gain. There are probably about, off the top of my head, up to 100 Conservative seats, like Bexley, which the Lib Dems wouldn’t gain at the moment. Most of them are in blocks in places like theThames estuary and Staffordshire/ Derbyshire. The sort of place that would be a by election with an uncertain outcome at the moment is where Labour are second, the LDs have no chance on paper , and a Con majority of 10-15000. Somewhere like South Ribble or Basingstoke or Stafford. You are missing the key difference between a putative Mid Beds by-election and North Shropshire or Tiverton and Honiton. Boris will have gone. The Tory candidate would no longer have to hide away to avoid the embarrassment of having to defend Johnson in public. True. It will interesting if/ when we get the first of that type of by election under a new Conservative leader. Although I think the Lib Dems would probably have won a Tiverton by election at any point between 1990-2006 and at any point since 2015 so I’d imagine they’d quite possibly win it under a new Conservative leader.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jul 10, 2022 11:36:12 GMT
Pretty much any seat that isn’t very Tory and very leave (lincs, rougher bits of Essex etc) is going to be at risk in a by election in the present environment. Personally I think it depends who the main challenger is. Based on the last year, if the challenger is the Lib Dems, its at risk. If its Labour, then it needs to be close like Wakefield. Large Tory majority and Labour is the second place party, probably not a lot for the blue team to worry about. You mean a constituency like North Shropshire?
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Post by mrsir on Jul 11, 2022 11:10:14 GMT
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 11, 2022 11:20:05 GMT
Shouldn't wear high heels to drive.
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 11, 2022 13:15:37 GMT
We had a fairly decent result in Stafford in 2017 though, pretty against the trend in those parts even in that election. Stafford is very different from the coalfield towns to the south, or the commuter towns to the south-east, or to miserably rundown Stoke. It is a pleasant mixed town with a substantial public sector workforce. If it had a university it would be Labour. As it is, Rugby or Shrewsbury would be better Midlands comparators.
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Jul 11, 2022 14:14:00 GMT
I should imagine that walking down the street meeting constituents will be fun ...
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 11, 2022 14:54:26 GMT
I should imagine that walking down the street meeting constituents will be fun ... I can't imagine that he will be canvassing for re-election - I would be surprised if he stuck it out to the next general election.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jul 11, 2022 15:22:14 GMT
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 11, 2022 15:23:53 GMT
I should imagine that walking down the street meeting constituents will be fun ... Turning up in Parliament would be even more fun.
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 11, 2022 15:29:20 GMT
I can imagine that embarking on transitioning while an MP would be a challenge. I suppose it depends what his intentions are.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jul 11, 2022 15:40:03 GMT
Nice that the article allows us to look up Wallis' house.
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Post by Strontium Dog on Jul 11, 2022 15:41:04 GMT
I should imagine that walking down the street meeting constituents will be fun ... Especially if he's in heels.
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Post by Strontium Dog on Jul 11, 2022 15:41:34 GMT
Nice that the article allows us to look up Wallis' house. Gotta be more fun than looking up his skirt.
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 11, 2022 15:45:37 GMT
Nice that the article allows us to look up Wallis' house. Gotta be more fun than looking up his skirt. Have you officially been appointed Minister for lowering the tone?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 11, 2022 15:47:47 GMT
Nice that the article allows us to look up Wallis' house. Gotta be more fun than looking up his skirt. That might be a minority opinion on here
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jul 11, 2022 15:47:49 GMT
Gotta be more fun than looking up his skirt. Have you officially been appointed Minister for lowering the tone? I think there's a queue for that gig.
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Post by stb12 on Jul 11, 2022 15:50:31 GMT
I can imagine that embarking on transitioning while an MP would be a challenge. I suppose it depends what his intentions are. ’Challenge’ is probably putting it mildly. Really strikes me as something that requires privacy
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