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Post by Wisconsin on Jul 9, 2022 22:03:52 GMT
Can an MP be named in the honours list, but delay becoming a peer, say until the next dissolution? I assume don’t lose their seat automatically?
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Post by greenhert on Jul 9, 2022 22:15:42 GMT
Mid Beds is very local to us. I think the Tory vote would collapse. It's full of decent country folk who genuinely like Nadine Dorries but are appalled at Johnson and the indecency of his Government. The fact Nadine is rarely there seems to be a minor issue! However there is a smaller farming community than in the likes of N Shropshire and Tiverton/Honiton and it's made up of several substantial villages / small towns. Ampthill about the largest and that just oozes Conservative if you visit (It is lovely.) It's also a huge constituency due to being a popular area for new housing but much of it is high end. A large chunk being taken off in the boundary proposals and going with Hitchin in Herts. I do think the Tories might well hold, but not because of them but because of the split opposition. Lib Dems second in 2005/2010 and the only ones who could realistically beat the Tories, but Labour had almost double the Lib Dem vote in 2019 and more in 2015 & 2017, and seem better organised. I'm not sure I can see the same sorts of squeeze we've seen in other seats, especially if the Tories have calmed down by the time the vote comes around, from the manic tantrums of the present. Specifically Stotfold and Arlesey; because of this I initially considered recommending that it be renamed Ampthill & Flitwick. It will also gain a bit of the current NE Bedfordshire in said boundary proposals.
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Jul 9, 2022 22:36:15 GMT
Pretty much any seat that isn’t very Tory and very leave (lincs, rougher bits of Essex etc) is going to be at risk in a by election in the present environment. Personally I think it depends who the main challenger is. Based on the last year, if the challenger is the Lib Dems, its at risk. If its Labour, then it needs to be close like Wakefield. Large Tory majority and Labour is the second place party, probably not a lot for the blue team to worry about.
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Rural Radical
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Post by Rural Radical on Jul 9, 2022 22:38:08 GMT
Pretty much any seat that isn’t very Tory and very leave (lincs, rougher bits of Essex etc) is going to be at risk in a by election in the present environment. Personally I think it depends who the main challenger is. Based on the last year, if the challenger is the Lib Dems, its at risk. If its Labour, then it needs to be close like Wakefield. Large Tory majority and Labour is the second place party, probably not a lot for the blue team to worry about. North Shropshire was in the latter category and look what happened there
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jul 9, 2022 22:47:55 GMT
Mid Beds is very local to us. I think the Tory vote would collapse. It's full of decent country folk who genuinely like Nadine Dorries but are appalled at Johnson and the indecency of his Government. The fact Nadine is rarely there seems to be a minor issue! However there is a smaller farming community than in the likes of N Shropshire and Tiverton/Honiton and it's made up of several substantial villages / small towns. Ampthill about the largest and that just oozes Conservative if you visit (It is lovely.) It's also a huge constituency due to being a popular area for new housing but much of it is high end. A large chunk being taken off in the boundary proposals and going with Hitchin in Herts. I do think the Tories might well hold, but not because of them but because of the split opposition. Lib Dems second in 2005/2010 and the only ones who could realistically beat the Tories, but Labour had almost double the Lib Dem vote in 2019 and more in 2015 & 2017, and seem better organised. I'm not sure I can see the same sorts of squeeze we've seen in other seats, especially if the Tories have calmed down by the time the vote comes around, from the manic tantrums of the present. Specifically Stotfold and Arlesey; because of this I initially considered recommending that it be renamed Ampthill & Flitwick. It will also gain a bit of the current NE Bedfordshire in said boundary proposals. There was a rumour in Woburn that there were plans to rename it to include Flitwick. Went down like a bucket of cold sick around there.
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Jul 9, 2022 22:54:08 GMT
Mid Bedfordshire is generally more "wealthy commuter" than any of the LD gains from Tory so far. The sort of place where most people will vote Tory for low taxes even in a by-election. There are some poorer areas in Flitwick and around the old brickworking areas which have a decent Labour vote. But I genuinely think Mid Beds would withstand even a by-election if it happened
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Post by bjornhattan on Jul 9, 2022 23:15:37 GMT
Mid Bedfordshire is generally more "wealthy commuter" than any of the LD gains from Tory so far. The sort of place where most people will vote Tory for low taxes even in a by-election. There are some poorer areas in Flitwick and around the old brickworking areas which have a decent Labour vote. But I genuinely think Mid Beds would withstand even a by-election if it happened More "wealthy commuter" than Chesham and Amersham? I realise that seat has Chesham town which is more middling than wealthy and can have a decent Labour vote, but the vast majority of the seat comprises areas like the Chalfonts which are fit that description better than almost anywhere.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 10, 2022 2:51:35 GMT
Of course, and Capstan Full Strength. My Grandfather smoked Park Drive. Very small cigarettes packed full of tar. He was gassed in the First World War and could hardly breath thereafter but still staggered on till he was 89. Parky bombers, my Dad smoked them.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 10, 2022 6:52:04 GMT
Pretty much any seat that isn’t very Tory and very leave (lincs, rougher bits of Essex etc) is going to be at risk in a by election in the present environment. Personally I think it depends who the main challenger is. Based on the last year, if the challenger is the Lib Dems, its at risk. If its Labour, then it needs to be close like Wakefield. Large Tory majority and Labour is the second place party, probably not a lot for the blue team to worry about. This is why I think Mid Bedfordshire would be more at risk than Selby because the Lib Dems would become the challengers rather than Labour. Although Labour won the old Selby seat in the Blair elections, these boundaries are mush less favourable (they may never have won it on these boundaries) and they are far behind now requiring a swing far greater than in Wakefield, but far enough ahead of the Lib Dems to prevent the latter from stealing the mantle of 'challenger'. In Mid Bedfordshire Labour have no such history or strength and its more likely to follow the trajectory of North Shropshire and Tiverton & Honiton. Of course with any likely new leader boost it's likely seats of this kind would be held, but we could do without giving the Lib Dems any kind of foothold in the area which is likely to become part of the new Hitchin constituency (given how unreliable Hitchin itself has become)
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 10, 2022 8:48:36 GMT
Pretty much any seat that isn’t very Tory and very leave (lincs, rougher bits of Essex etc) is going to be at risk in a by election in the present environment. Don't forget the Labour majority in Wakefield was only 4,900 votes. It was "only" that primarily because turnout was pretty low. Anecdotal evidence is that Tories were actually trying to encourage this, telling unhappy voters "yes we are rubbish but so are Labour, all politicians are the same - I wouldn't vote if I were you".
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 10, 2022 8:55:38 GMT
they'd probably survive that one (mid-Beds), although voters traditionally don't appreciate what they see as unnecessary elections The 2019 result reminds me a little of some recent by-elections. Exactly. And looking back at the apropriate threads for C&A, North Shropshire and T&H it is easy to pick out statements that this time there is no way this one can fall....
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 10, 2022 8:59:02 GMT
Easy to forget now, but the consensus - on here and elsewhere - about Chesham/Amersham *when the polls closed* was that it would be a clear Tory hold.
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Post by aargauer on Jul 10, 2022 9:17:20 GMT
It'll be interesting to see if we have reached peak middle class anger against the Conservatives now Boris has gone or whether the trend for the Conservatives to become more working / lower middle class will continue.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jul 10, 2022 9:17:30 GMT
The 2019 result reminds me a little of some recent by-elections. Exactly. And looking back at the apropriate threads for C&A, North Shropshire and T&H it is easy to pick out statements that this time there is no way this one can fall.... I think with C and A, we didn’t have anything to go on. Caused by the death of a well respected MP so no scandal, a bit remain, but nothing to go on, so a Conservative hold looked possible. Move on to North Shropshire, add in a MP with a scandal, but factor in it was a leave seat, put that through the algorithm and it still falls. By the time we Moved on to Tiverton, we had the pattern. MP with a bit of a scandal, but generally quite well liked. It was obvious from the start that it would be a LD gain Weve got the pattern now. Mid Bedfordshire would be a LD gain. There are probably about, off the top of my head, up to 100 Conservative seats, like Bexley, which the Lib Dems wouldn’t gain at the moment. Most of them are in blocks in places like theThames estuary and Staffordshire/ Derbyshire. The sort of place that would be a by election with an uncertain outcome at the moment is where Labour are second, the LDs have no chance on paper , and a Con majority of 10-15000. Somewhere like South Ribble or Basingstoke or Stafford.
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YL
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Post by YL on Jul 10, 2022 9:29:58 GMT
Easy to forget now, but the consensus - on here and elsewhere - about Chesham/Amersham *when the polls closed* was that it would be a clear Tory hold. I don't think it was really a consensus: six people in the prediction competition on here predicted a Lib Dem gain, for a start. Laura Kuenssberg got briefed by some complacent Tory, but there were definitely reasons to think the Tories were in trouble there.
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 10, 2022 9:33:35 GMT
Easy to forget now, but the consensus - on here and elsewhere - about Chesham/Amersham *when the polls closed* was that it would be a clear Tory hold. I don't think it was really a consensus: six people in the prediction competition on here predicted a Lib Dem gain, for a start. Laura Kuenssberg got briefed by some complacent Tory, but there were definitely reasons to think the Tories were in trouble there. I remember when the by-election was called, I was convinced that it would be held by the Conservatives, simply because it is usually such a staunchly Conservative area, but as the by-election campaign moved forward, it became equally obvious that was not going to be the outcome.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 10, 2022 9:41:30 GMT
Somewhere like South Ribble or Basingstoke or Stafford. In all of those three, Labour have recent history and/or potential on their side - so I would be fairly optimistic about our chances in any byelection. There are others in that general category that would be tougher propositions, however.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 10, 2022 9:46:39 GMT
Exactly. And looking back at the apropriate threads for C&A, North Shropshire and T&H it is easy to pick out statements that this time there is no way this one can fall.... I think with C and A, we didn’t have anything to go on. Caused by the death of a well respected MP so no scandal, a bit remain, but nothing to go on, so a Conservative hold looked possible. Move on to North Shropshire, add in a MP with a scandal, but factor in it was a leave seat, put that through the algorithm and it still falls. By the time we Moved on to Tiverton, we had the pattern. MP with a bit of a scandal, but generally quite well liked. It was obvious from the start that it would be a LD gain Weve got the pattern now. Mid Bedfordshire would be a LD gain. There are probably about, off the top of my head, up to 100 Conservative seats, like Bexley, which the Lib Dems wouldn’t gain at the moment. Most of them are in blocks in places like theThames estuary and Staffordshire/ Derbyshire. The sort of place that would be a by election with an uncertain outcome at the moment is where Labour are second, the LDs have no chance on paper , and a Con majority of 10-15000. Somewhere like South Ribble or Basingstoke or Stafford. You are missing the key difference between a putative Mid Beds by-election and North Shropshire or Tiverton and Honiton. Boris will have gone. The Tory candidate would no longer have to hide away to avoid the embarrassment of having to defend Johnson in public.
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mrtoad
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Post by mrtoad on Jul 10, 2022 9:52:49 GMT
Somewhere like South Ribble or Basingstoke or Stafford. In all of those three, Labour have recent history and/or potential on their side - so I would be fairly optimistic about our chances in any byelection. There are others in that general category that would be tougher propositions, however. Yes - I would be optimistic about Labour chances in Basingstoke (although the local party is a perennial shambles, and has underperformed its potential - which might even help boost the swing if there's a full-on by-election campaign organised from the centre) and in South Ribble. Less so in Stafford given the regional/ county level trend.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 10, 2022 10:06:37 GMT
We had a fairly decent result in Stafford in 2017 though, pretty against the trend in those parts even in that election.
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