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Post by aargauer on Jul 3, 2022 11:32:30 GMT
In terms of long-term change, Tamworth has swung too far to the Conservatives for Labour to win it in a by-election except under extraordinary circumstances. But Tiverton, Chesham, Shropshire?… Where the conservatives all did worse than 1997, when Tamworth was Labour. But is the key difference really just the fact that the Librals are the challengers there - are people more opposed/hesitant to using Labour as a protest vote? Having thought about it, Bexley could be an example of this underperformance - they ran Heath fairly close in ‘97 but couldn’t get it over the line even in a BE. Yes, Partygate had only just hit the headlines but N.Shropshire was just a week or two later and was seismic… Almost all of the biggest by election swings historically (only 1 of the top 20) are not to Conservative or Labour because they are divisive parties of government.
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Post by graham on Jul 3, 2022 12:06:29 GMT
In terms of long-term change, Tamworth has swung too far to the Conservatives for Labour to win it in a by-election except under extraordinary circumstances. On the other hand Sylvia Heal managed a big swing at the Mid-Staffordshire by election in Spring 1990. Different boundaries , but it might provide some evidence that this is an area inclined to some pretty wild swings - as did the West Midlands in the late 50s, 60s and 70s.
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Post by kevinf on Jul 3, 2022 12:31:47 GMT
In terms of long-term change, Tamworth has swung too far to the Conservatives for Labour to win it in a by-election except under extraordinary circumstances. On the other hand Sylvia Heal managed a big swing at the Mid-Staffordshire by election in Spring 1990. Different boundaries , but it might provide some evidence that this is an area inclined to some pretty wild swings - as did the West Midlands in the late 50s, 60s and 70s. I worked in the Sylvia Heal by-election. There was much more positivity to Labour than now. I think the Tories would just hold on now. However if, for e.g., the rape case MP gets prosecuted or more comes out about other MPs, it could swing even more against the Tories. For what it’s worth, with all the extra allegations today, I think Pincher will go on Monday or Tuesday.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,284
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Post by ricmk on Jul 3, 2022 12:35:55 GMT
In terms of long-term change, Tamworth has swung too far to the Conservatives for Labour to win it in a by-election except under extraordinary circumstances. It feels to me it's about as tough for Labour as Tiverton and Honiton was for the Lib Dems. Really shouldn't have been winnable especially given a decent Tory defence, but a superlative effort and national winds all aligning to somehow pull it off. I can't see Labour reaching that far into Tory territory, but then again they don't need to, to get a majority. But the Lib Dems have learnt that you don't get to choose your battles in by-elections, you simply have to win when the odds are stacked against you. I almost wish Labour had that same fighting instinct. If this is to go to by-election (and I'd only put it at 20% even given today's updates) then Labour need to fight it like their existence depends on it.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 3, 2022 13:19:58 GMT
But Tiverton, Chesham, Shropshire?… Where the conservatives all did worse than 1997, when Tamworth was Labour. But is the key difference really just the fact that the Librals are the challengers there - are people more opposed/hesitant to using Labour as a protest vote? Having thought about it, Bexley could be an example of this underperformance - they ran Heath fairly close in ‘97 but couldn’t get it over the line even in a BE. Yes, Partygate had only just hit the headlines but N.Shropshire was just a week or two later and was seismic… Yes, as has been discussed a few times, the pissed off Tory voter who newspapers keep finding, are happy to vote Lib Dem ( or Green) as a protest, partly because in their mind that is ‘ I’m not happy with the Government’. Voting Labour would be ‘ I’m not happy with the government and I’d rather have a different government’ which is considerably further down the scale of unhappiness. For that reason Labour are very unlikely to ever to be able to achieve the size of swings that the Lib Dems can in by elections, but perhaps conversely are more likely to hold on to any switchers from the Conservatives that they get. not so sure about the last part. Plenty of seats whose dynsmics get changed longishterm due to a ld byelection win. Can't think of any Labour-Tory by-election affecting the 2nd GE after it.
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Post by kevinf on Jul 3, 2022 14:40:35 GMT
In terms of long-term change, Tamworth has swung too far to the Conservatives for Labour to win it in a by-election except under extraordinary circumstances. It feels to me it's about as tough for Labour as Tiverton and Honiton was for the Lib Dems. Really shouldn't have been winnable especially given a decent Tory defence, but a superlative effort and national winds all aligning to somehow pull it off. I can't see Labour reaching that far into Tory territory, but then again they don't need to, to get a majority. But the Lib Dems have learnt that you don't get to choose your battles in by-elections, you simply have to win when the odds are stacked against you. I almost wish Labour had that same fighting instinct. If this is to go to by-election (and I'd only put it at 20% even given today's updates) then Labour need to fight it like their existence depends on it.
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Post by kevinf on Jul 3, 2022 14:41:20 GMT
Two Tory Councillors in Tamworth now called on Pincher to resign. I really think this is imminent.
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Post by kevinf on Jul 3, 2022 16:06:52 GMT
In today's Mail it says Starmer's office doesn't particularly want a by-election because of potentially unfavourable comparisons with Tony Blair's performance in the 1996 by-election at which there was a 22% swing and 14,000 Labour majority. They shouldn’t worry. No-one in the world thinks he’s going to be as electorally successful as Tony Blair….
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 3, 2022 16:14:07 GMT
In today's Mail it says Starmer's office doesn't particularly want a by-election because of potentially unfavourable comparisons with Tony Blair's performance in the 1996 by-election at which there was a 22% swing and 14,000 Labour majority. They shouldn’t worry. No-one in the world thinks he’s going to be as electorally successful as Tony Blair…. I wonder whether Starmer would think that not winning the by-election might be something of a boost to the Tories? Of course if Johnson comes to the same conclusion, then he may well think a by-election is a good idea.
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jul 3, 2022 16:28:58 GMT
Two Tory Councillors in Tamworth now called on Pincher to resign. I really think this is imminent. If I was him I’d just go. There isn’t any way back for him even if he hasn’t committed an offence that the police can nick him for. In no other walk of life would a senior employee/manager be permitted (or required) to have a minder to prevent them from drinking too much and groping other people at functions. Booze can’t be used as an excuse, given the number of alleged incidents - and their nature. Once… is a mistake. Twice… hmm. X number of times..? He isn’t a teenager in an after hours doss house full of pissed up and coked up people shaking it on a dance floor. He’s a member of Parliament and part of the inner workings of government. If you can’t keep your hands to yourself when you’ve had a drink, don’t fucking drink.
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 3, 2022 16:31:27 GMT
Two Tory Councillors in Tamworth now called on Pincher to resign. I really think this is imminent. If I was him I’d just go. There isn’t any way back for him even if he hasn’t committed an offence that the police can nick him for. In no other walk of life would a senior employee/manager be permitted (or required) to have a minder to prevent them from drinking too much and groping other people at functions. Booze can’t be used as an excuse, given the number of alleged incidents - and their nature. Once… is a mistake. Twice… hmm. X number of times..? He isn’t a teenager in an after hours doss house full of pissed up and coked up people shaking it on a dance floor. He’s a member of Parliament and part of the inner workings of government. If you can’t keep your hands to yourself when you’ve had a drink, don’t fucking drink. Yes - booze seems to be a cause, but its not an excuse, given the timescale and frequency - he clearly needs to stop drinking, but I think he will end up stepping down, either now or at the next election.
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jul 3, 2022 16:54:41 GMT
If I was him I’d just go. There isn’t any way back for him even if he hasn’t committed an offence that the police can nick him for. In no other walk of life would a senior employee/manager be permitted (or required) to have a minder to prevent them from drinking too much and groping other people at functions. Booze can’t be used as an excuse, given the number of alleged incidents - and their nature. Once… is a mistake. Twice… hmm. X number of times..? He isn’t a teenager in an after hours doss house full of pissed up and coked up people shaking it on a dance floor. He’s a member of Parliament and part of the inner workings of government. If you can’t keep your hands to yourself when you’ve had a drink, don’t fucking drink. Yes - booze seems to be a cause, but its not an excuse, given the timescale and frequency - he clearly needs to stop drinking, but I think he will end up stepping down, either now or at the next election. It’s the lack of self awareness - does this apply to other areas of his work, or personal life..? There isn’t anything stopping him having a beer to unwind in private - not necessarily a need to go tee total. Seems to me like he’s just a sexual predator/groomer who really ought to be on the register really.
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Post by graham on Jul 3, 2022 18:57:06 GMT
In terms of long-term change, Tamworth has swung too far to the Conservatives for Labour to win it in a by-election except under extraordinary circumstances. It feels to me it's about as tough for Labour as Tiverton and Honiton was for the Lib Dems. Really shouldn't have been winnable especially given a decent Tory defence, but a superlative effort and national winds all aligning to somehow pull it off. I can't see Labour reaching that far into Tory territory, but then again they don't need to, to get a majority. But the Lib Dems have learnt that you don't get to choose your battles in by-elections, you simply have to win when the odds are stacked against you. I almost wish Labour had that same fighting instinct. If this is to go to by-election (and I'd only put it at 20% even given today's updates) then Labour need to fight it like their existence depends on it. The reference to 'into Tory territory' is based on the seat's short term electoral history. A majority of almost 20,000 is formidable prima facie - but it was Labour-held until 2010 and many will recall having a Labour MP.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Jul 3, 2022 19:52:46 GMT
. In no other walk of life would a senior employee/manager be permitted (or required) to have a minder to prevent them from drinking too much and groping other people at functions. You've not had much contact with, or been involved with, several industries then. This happens more than one might think. Especially if you work for Sony Australia, but there are other lines of work where having a company chaperone isn't uncommon. This 'in no other industry' thing does rather show the lack of awareness people have of what actually happens in many workplaces. That doesn't excuse the behaviour of course: I'd be exiting the guilty post haste.
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Post by Clark on Jul 3, 2022 20:21:48 GMT
Little Aston could be a candidate for the strongest Tory ward in the country - 84% share even in their horrible year of 1995.
90% in 1999.
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Post by iainbhx on Jul 3, 2022 21:19:03 GMT
Little Aston could be a candidate for the strongest Tory ward in the country - 84% share even in their horrible year of 1995. 90% in 1999. More often unopposed this century than contested.
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,380
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 3, 2022 21:23:00 GMT
Little Aston could be a candidate for the strongest Tory ward in the country - 84% share even in their horrible year of 1995. 90% in 1999. Crikey, I thought it was Prestbury, Cheshire East, where the only non-Tory voters are probably the odd United footballer. Speaking of Cheshire East, most polling predictions have Macclesfield down as a Labour gain, which is quite something. Back to Tamworth - didn’t his incident take place at the Carlton Club? Not that it would be acceptable anywhere, but isn’t the Carlton Club is the ‘go-to’ Conservative club? Which makes it worse as there are likely to be members and colleagues around, so even if it’s not a ‘work event’, it’s not really a fully private function (should that be an argument) either if it’s there, and bringing the club/party into disrepute.
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Post by batman on Jul 4, 2022 6:52:30 GMT
well both actually. Unless you actually enjoy having a massive hangover.
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Post by stb12 on Jul 4, 2022 7:56:46 GMT
Restraining our worst instincts is part of life, it really is true to say that no-one is a saint
Alcohol gets rid of inhibitions to some extent in everyone but obviously the level at which it does so varies, in Pincher’s case clearly it’s so great that he shouldn’t drink at all
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 4, 2022 8:23:44 GMT
It feels to me it's about as tough for Labour as Tiverton and Honiton was for the Lib Dems. Really shouldn't have been winnable especially given a decent Tory defence, but a superlative effort and national winds all aligning to somehow pull it off. I can't see Labour reaching that far into Tory territory, but then again they don't need to, to get a majority. But the Lib Dems have learnt that you don't get to choose your battles in by-elections, you simply have to win when the odds are stacked against you. I almost wish Labour had that same fighting instinct. If this is to go to by-election (and I'd only put it at 20% even given today's updates) then Labour need to fight it like their existence depends on it. The reference to 'into Tory territory' is based on the seat's short term electoral history. A majority of almost 20,000 is formidable prima facie - but it was Labour-held until 2010 and many will recall having a Labour MP. The world has moved on. While it might be possible for Labour to get a plurality in Tamworth town, there is no prospect of them winning the constituency as currently arranged (or as proposed since changes will be minor).
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