jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 2, 2022 11:39:26 GMT
I’m not sure a by-election win here for Boris would be that good news. Our stupid press would try and make it so, but if you’re a backbench Conservative MP who is able to be reasoned with and you see, let’s say, 30% of a 43% majority wiped out by Labour, would you be comfortable with that and carry on like normal?
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 2, 2022 11:56:41 GMT
Isn't it more that the existing demographic has changed its voting patterns, rather than demographic change per se? In this case not exactly: over the past few decades the constituency has become firmly a part of the Birmingham commuter belt, which has changed its sociological make-up and population balance significantly. The sense of being outer-orbital also seems to be bad news for Labour in most metropolitann regions, which is something that deserves more attention than it has received. The present very large majority is what you get when you combine all that with Labour crashing badly in the parts of the constituency where it normally has a decent vote - whether the second part of this stands up over the longer term is questionable, but the first is firm and fixed. But this isn't somewhere where Labour can complain too much about that as I said: once they benefited massively from Tamworth's expansion and transformation under the Town Development Act which brought tens of thousands of Brummies to the area, now they're badly damaged by other factors relating to its proximity to Birmingham.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 2, 2022 12:05:37 GMT
Am I hallucinating?
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YL
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Post by YL on Jul 2, 2022 12:46:40 GMT
Isn't it more that the existing demographic has changed its voting patterns, rather than demographic change per se? In this case not exactly: over the past few decades the constituency has become firmly a part of the Birmingham commuter belt, which has changed its sociological make-up and population balance significantly. The sense of being outer-orbital also seems to be bad news for Labour in most metropolitann regions, which is something that deserves more attention than it has received. Especially in that one, it seems, as nicely illustrated by Pete Whitehead's "just a bit of fun" map of the Tory seats which would withstand the Tiverton & Honiton swing.
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Post by batman on Jul 2, 2022 13:01:04 GMT
Does anyone have the figures (for the council election results in May) for the wards that comprise the Tamworth constituency? ie vote share, gains/losses I have figures for Tamworth Borough Council, but assume that these may cover wards outside the constituency? Thank you en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Tamworth_Borough_Council_electionThe whole of Tamworth borough is in the constituency - as are the District of Lichfield wards of Bourne Vale, Fazeley, Little Aston, Mease and Tame, Shenstone, and Stonnall. I haven't checked but I'd imagine they would all be Tory but a relatively small part of the seat numerically. the Lichfield wards are indeed very strongly Tory and would all have voted Conservative even at the height of the Blair years. Labour's wins in Tamworth were based on a strong lead in Tamworth borough outvoting the Tory lead in the Lichfield district minority.
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Post by batman on Jul 2, 2022 13:03:43 GMT
The Labour’ slipping position in Tamworth may have been concealed by incumbency. Jenkins was not the most inspiring guy. However he was fairly firmly locally rooted (and still lives there, I think). Another one who didn't trouble the front bench. Obviously the massive pool of 1997-2005 Labour MPs meant many just didn't become ministers, but was this because he didn't want to or was he on the wrong wing or what? Jenkins was never on the left or disloyal to Blair.
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Post by edgbaston on Jul 2, 2022 13:17:28 GMT
Chris ‘pincher’ is rather unfortunate in the circumstances
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Post by aargauer on Jul 2, 2022 14:07:18 GMT
The whole of Tamworth borough is in the constituency - as are the District of Lichfield wards of Bourne Vale, Fazeley, Little Aston, Mease and Tame, Shenstone, and Stonnall. I haven't checked but I'd imagine they would all be Tory but a relatively small part of the seat numerically. the Lichfield wards are indeed very strongly Tory and would all have voted Conservative even at the height of the Blair years. Labour's wins in Tamworth were based on a strong lead in Tamworth borough outvoting the Tory lead in the Lichfield district minority. My family sold our land in Lichfield district directly bordering Tamworth (and in the parliamentary seat) to a developer who is building 1000 houses there. It will be interesting to what extent this helps the Conservatives. The houses look quite nice - davidsonsgroup.co.uk/developments/davidsonsattamworth/Caused a big fight between Lichfield and Tamworth tories as the residents will pay tax to litchfield and use Tamworth services. Defacto this will be Just be part of outer Tamworth. Not the only development in the Anker valley area so this seat is going to get harder and harder for labour.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jul 2, 2022 14:14:35 GMT
the Lichfield wards are indeed very strongly Tory and would all have voted Conservative even at the height of the Blair years. Labour's wins in Tamworth were based on a strong lead in Tamworth borough outvoting the Tory lead in the Lichfield district minority. My family sold our land in Lichfield district directly bordering Tamworth (and in the parliamentary seat) to a developer who is building 1000 houses there. It will be interesting to what extent this helps the Conservatives. The houses look quite nice - davidsonsgroup.co.uk/developments/davidsonsattamworth/Caused a big fight between Lichfield and Tamworth tories as the residents will pay tax to litchfield and use Tamworth services. Defacto this will be Just be part of outer Tamworth. Not the only development in the Anker valley area so this seat is going to get harder and harder for labour. However, in the long term, it will cause the seat to shrink, so I feel it's going to be a bit of a wash.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 2, 2022 14:19:01 GMT
Isn't it more that the existing demographic has changed its voting patterns, rather than demographic change per se? In this case not exactly: over the past few decades the constituency has become firmly a part of the Birmingham commuter belt, which has changed its sociological make-up and population balance significantly. The sense of being outer-orbital also seems to be bad news for Labour in most metropolitann regions, which is something that deserves more attention than it has received. The present very large majority is what you get when you combine all that with Labour crashing badly in the parts of the constituency where it normally has a decent vote - whether the second part of this stands up over the longer term is questionable, but the first is firm and fixed. But this isn't somewhere where Labour can complain too much about that as I said: once they benefited massively from Tamworth's expansion and transformation under the Town Development Act which brought tens of thousands of Brummies to the area, now they're badly damaged by other factors relating to its proximity to Birmingham. Take the point but given that the seat only changed hands in 2010 a fair few of the existing residents must have switched sides too. But there are a few seats like this. Derbyshire NE comes to mind, which gets the sales managers who work in Sheffield and vote Tory, buying the new builds
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jul 2, 2022 14:35:24 GMT
The whole of Tamworth borough is in the constituency - as are the District of Lichfield wards of Bourne Vale, Fazeley, Little Aston, Mease and Tame, Shenstone, and Stonnall. I haven't checked but I'd imagine they would all be Tory but a relatively small part of the seat numerically. Little Aston is the millionaires row area for Birmingham. Gated mansions, etc. It doesn't have much in common with Tamworth itself and would be better placed in another constituency like Sutton Coldfield, Aldridge-Brownhills or Lichfield. New boundaries proposal is it losing Wall but gaining Whittington and Streethay.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 2, 2022 15:36:58 GMT
In this case not exactly: over the past few decades the constituency has become firmly a part of the Birmingham commuter belt, which has changed its sociological make-up and population balance significantly. The sense of being outer-orbital also seems to be bad news for Labour in most metropolitann regions, which is something that deserves more attention than it has received. The present very large majority is what you get when you combine all that with Labour crashing badly in the parts of the constituency where it normally has a decent vote - whether the second part of this stands up over the longer term is questionable, but the first is firm and fixed. But this isn't somewhere where Labour can complain too much about that as I said: once they benefited massively from Tamworth's expansion and transformation under the Town Development Act which brought tens of thousands of Brummies to the area, now they're badly damaged by other factors relating to its proximity to Birmingham. Take the point but given that the seat only changed hands in 2010 a fair few of the existing residents must have switched sides too. But there are a few seats like this. Derbyshire NE comes to mind, which gets the sales managers who work in Sheffield and vote Tory, buying the new builds Yeah, kind of NE Derbyshire type Tory friendly demographic change in a New Town seat with the attendant Tory friendly alignment changes and/or traditional large swings.
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Rural Radical
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Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
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Post by Rural Radical on Jul 2, 2022 18:42:35 GMT
The whole of Tamworth borough is in the constituency - as are the District of Lichfield wards of Bourne Vale, Fazeley, Little Aston, Mease and Tame, Shenstone, and Stonnall. I haven't checked but I'd imagine they would all be Tory but a relatively small part of the seat numerically. the Lichfield wards are indeed very strongly Tory and would all have voted Conservative even at the height of the Blair years. Labour's wins in Tamworth were based on a strong lead in Tamworth borough outvoting the Tory lead in the Lichfield district minority. I’m pretty sure that the Fazeley ward used to vote Labour
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 2, 2022 19:11:49 GMT
the Lichfield wards are indeed very strongly Tory and would all have voted Conservative even at the height of the Blair years. Labour's wins in Tamworth were based on a strong lead in Tamworth borough outvoting the Tory lead in the Lichfield district minority. I’m pretty sure that the Fazeley ward used to vote Labour Fazeley is part of Tamworth despite the borough boundary. It’s very different from the rest of the Lichfield component.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 2, 2022 22:29:00 GMT
Interesting interview with Neil Parish (predating this latest news): I quite enjoy this new ‘political commentator’ Neil Parish, sniping from the sidelines. First on “parallel universe” Johnson, now this. He did the full media round post-Tiverton result but I find it amusing if every time a government scandal breaks out from now on the cameras are wheeled to Parish for his views on a farm somewhere. This decade’s Hamilton? Massive fall from grace (though in Parish’s case, far more honourable in ‘doing the right thing’ and resigning) turned ‘celebrity’?
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Post by Wisconsin on Jul 2, 2022 23:24:40 GMT
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Post by greenhert on Jul 3, 2022 9:52:58 GMT
In terms of long-term change, Tamworth has swung too far to the Conservatives for Labour to win it in a by-election except under extraordinary circumstances.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 3, 2022 10:41:15 GMT
In terms of long-term change, Tamworth has swung too far to the Conservatives for Labour to win it in a by-election except under extraordinary circumstances. But Tiverton, Chesham, Shropshire?… Where the conservatives all did worse than 1997, when Tamworth was Labour. But is the key difference really just the fact that the Librals are the challengers there - are people more opposed/hesitant to using Labour as a protest vote? Having thought about it, Bexley could be an example of this underperformance - they ran Heath fairly close in ‘97 but couldn’t get it over the line even in a BE. Yes, Partygate had only just hit the headlines but N.Shropshire was just a week or two later and was seismic…
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jul 3, 2022 10:50:23 GMT
In terms of long-term change, Tamworth has swung too far to the Conservatives for Labour to win it in a by-election except under extraordinary circumstances. But Tiverton, Chesham, Shropshire?… Where the conservatives all did worse than 1997, when Tamworth was Labour. But is the key difference really just the fact that the Librals are the challengers there - are people more opposed/hesitant to using Labour as a protest vote? Having thought about it, Bexley could be an example of this underperformance - they ran Heath fairly close in ‘97 but couldn’t get it over the line even in a BE. Yes, Partygate had only just hit the headlines but N.Shropshire was just a week or two later and was seismic… Yes, as has been discussed a few times, the pissed off Tory voter who newspapers keep finding, are happy to vote Lib Dem ( or Green) as a protest, partly because in their mind that is ‘ I’m not happy with the Government’. Voting Labour would be ‘ I’m not happy with the government and I’d rather have a different government’ which is considerably further down the scale of unhappiness. For that reason Labour are very unlikely to ever to be able to achieve the size of swings that the Lib Dems can in by elections, but perhaps conversely are more likely to hold on to any switchers from the Conservatives that they get.
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 3, 2022 11:04:01 GMT
In terms of long-term change, Tamworth has swung too far to the Conservatives for Labour to win it in a by-election except under extraordinary circumstances. But Tiverton, Chesham, Shropshire?… Where the conservatives all did worse than 1997, when Tamworth was Labour. But is the key difference really just the fact that the Librals are the challengers there - are people more opposed/hesitant to using Labour as a protest vote? Having thought about it, Bexley could be an example of this underperformance - they ran Heath fairly close in ‘97 but couldn’t get it over the line even in a BE. Yes, Partygate had only just hit the headlines but N.Shropshire was just a week or two later and was seismic… In terms of local election results have the Tories been ahead on share of the vote across the constituency recently?
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