The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,483
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 4, 2022 10:03:03 GMT
In terms of long-term change, Tamworth has swung too far to the Conservatives for Labour to win it in a by-election except under extraordinary circumstances. It feels to me it's about as tough for Labour as Tiverton and Honiton was for the Lib Dems. Really shouldn't have been winnable especially given a decent Tory defence, but a superlative effort and national winds all aligning to somehow pull it off. I can't see Labour reaching that far into Tory territory, but then again they don't need to, to get a majority. But the Lib Dems have learnt that you don't get to choose your battles in by-elections, you simply have to win when the odds are stacked against you. I almost wish Labour had that same fighting instinct. If this is to go to by-election (and I'd only put it at 20% even given today's updates) then Labour need to fight it like their existence depends on it. I think we need a bit of wider context here - after all it is barely a year (though it seems much longer, I agree) since the Tories won a Labour seat on a huge byelection swing. You have to learn to walk before you can run, and whilst Wakefield will give the party a lot of heart I don't think even Starmer's biggest fans imagine it is the same all-conquering electoral machine we saw the last time there was a byelection centred on Tamworth. Even so, its entirely possible the Tory position will have deteriorated further before there is any byelection now - so I imagine the majority Labour view will be "bring it on and see what happens". If they fall short it will be a shame but not unexpected, but if they actually win the fallout for the Tories and Johnson will be devastating.
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Post by greenhert on Jul 4, 2022 10:46:35 GMT
In terms of long-term change, Tamworth has swung too far to the Conservatives for Labour to win it in a by-election except under extraordinary circumstances. It feels to me it's about as tough for Labour as Tiverton and Honiton was for the Lib Dems. Really shouldn't have been winnable especially given a decent Tory defence, but a superlative effort and national winds all aligning to somehow pull it off. I can't see Labour reaching that far into Tory territory, but then again they don't need to, to get a majority. But the Lib Dems have learnt that you don't get to choose your battles in by-elections, you simply have to win when the odds are stacked against you. I almost wish Labour had that same fighting instinct. If this is to go to by-election (and I'd only put it at 20% even given today's updates) then Labour need to fight it like their existence depends on it. Another factor that works against Labour in Tamworth is Tamworth's rapidly ageing population. The proportion of over-65s in Tamworth increased to 19.1% in 2021 from 14.5% in 2011, and the rural Lichfield wards in the Tamworth constituency undoubtedly have a considerably above average proportion of pensioners.
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 4, 2022 14:41:20 GMT
That article is over two years old.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,274
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Post by ricmk on Jul 4, 2022 17:27:00 GMT
That article is over two years old. Apologies - I was drawn to it by a tweet today implying it was new. I've deleted my post in entirety.
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,377
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 4, 2022 18:49:59 GMT
Interesting interview with Neil Parish (predating this latest news): I quite enjoy this new ‘political commentator’ Neil Parish, sniping from the sidelines. First on “parallel universe” Johnson, now this. He did the full media round post-Tiverton result but I find it amusing if every time a government scandal breaks out from now on the cameras are wheeled to Parish for his views on a farm somewhere. This decade’s Hamilton? Massive fall from grace (though in Parish’s case, far more honourable in ‘doing the right thing’ and resigning) turned ‘celebrity’? Lo and behold… not on a farm but in front of a giant picture of him and a tractor. Next thing you know he will be heading GB News’ answer to Countryfile…
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Jul 5, 2022 6:38:29 GMT
It will still be better than Cuntdefile Is that the porn he was watching?
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Post by Wisconsin on Jul 5, 2022 11:35:31 GMT
What do you think the odds are on Pincher resigning soon? The pressure on government keeps ramping up - are we at the stage where a resignation helps?
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Post by grahammurray on Jul 5, 2022 11:46:23 GMT
What do you think the odds are on Pincher resigning soon? The pressure on government keeps ramping up - are we at the stage where a resignation helps? Would his resignation help or would it highlight Johnson's failings?
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Post by Wisconsin on Jul 5, 2022 12:02:06 GMT
What do you think the odds are on Pincher resigning soon? The pressure on government keeps ramping up - are we at the stage where a resignation helps? Would his resignation help or would it highlight Johnson's failings? They seem obsessed with drawing lines under things. This would give them another line-drawing opportunity. (Agree it’s not necessarily a wise thing to actually do).
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Post by stb12 on Jul 5, 2022 12:03:24 GMT
If he resigns then it’ll feel like we never have a spell without a by-election or two
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,483
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 5, 2022 12:12:17 GMT
Pincher himself may feel his recent statement about getting treatment means he can stay on as MP for a while, maybe until the next GE.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jul 5, 2022 12:19:46 GMT
If he resigns then it’ll feel like we never have a spell without a by-election or two What's the record number of by-elections in a parliamentary term and how does this term compare to that so far?
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Post by tonyhill on Jul 5, 2022 12:22:45 GMT
Excluding Northern Ireland presumably.
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Post by Wisconsin on Jul 5, 2022 12:34:51 GMT
If he resigns then it’ll feel like we never have a spell without a by-election or two What's the record number of by-elections in a parliamentary term and how does this term compare to that so far? Since 1945, there were 61 by-elections in the 1959-64 Parliament. (It still beats the 80s even if you don’t exclude NI). We’ve had 10 so far this parliament.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 5, 2022 12:48:56 GMT
What do you think the odds are on Pincher resigning soon? The pressure on government keeps ramping up - are we at the stage where a resignation helps? String it out for a fortnight and it should die down over the summer, then he can quietly stand down at the GE. What's the record number of by-elections in a parliamentary term and how does this term compare to that so far? As has been said we've had ten so far and we're just over 2.5 years into a hypothetical 5 year term (5 years 1 month to be pedantic), although those ten have all been in the last 13 months. 2010-2015 saw 21 by-elections - that seemed like a lot especially in the autumn of 2012.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 5, 2022 13:13:07 GMT
If he resigns then it’ll feel like we never have a spell without a by-election or two What's the record number of by-elections in a parliamentary term and how does this term compare to that so far? In recent decades, there were 31 in 1983-87. In 1935-45 there were 214.
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 5, 2022 13:13:16 GMT
What's the record number of by-elections in a parliamentary term and how does this term compare to that so far? Since 1945, there were 61 by-elections in the 1959-64 Parliament. (It still beats the 80s even if you don’t exclude NI). We’ve had 10 so far this parliament. I remember an article back in the 90s that said by elections were becoming a thing of the past and might die out altogether...
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Post by stb12 on Jul 5, 2022 13:14:16 GMT
Of course for a good chunk of the Parliament by-elections couldn’t have taken place under lockdown rules. Not that any vacancies came up in that spell anyway unless I’m remembering incorrectly
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 5, 2022 13:28:08 GMT
Both Paterson and Parish resigned because they were fed up that they didn't get the backing he thought he deserved. I think it would be hard to argue that the government has been eager to cut Pincher loose. I don't think he's as much of a prima donna as Paterson was, so a resignation out of pique seems unlikely.
On the other hand, a suspension from the House leading to a recall doesn't seem especially unlikely, so there's always a chance he might jump before he's pushed.
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 5, 2022 14:16:44 GMT
I think Pincher probably will stand down as an MP in the next few weeks. I suspect his time as drinks writer for The Critic magazine is coming to an end too.
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